Why Bitcoin Miners Brace for Capitulation After Halving

As Bitcoin prices continue to face intense volatility after the halving, the stability of the entire crypto-mining industry could hinge on a critical support level. 

Currently trading around $57,000, Bitcoin has experienced a significant drop from its March 14 all-time high of $73,750. This downturn places immense pressure on Bitcoin miners, who grapple with the effects of the latest halving event that reduced block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

Will Bitcoin Miners Capitulate Following the Halving?

Despite these challenges, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju recently highlighted that Bitcoin miners have yet to show signs of capitulation. Typically, capitulation occurs when miners, unable to cover operational costs due to falling Bitcoin prices, are forced to sell their holdings, potentially driving prices down further. 

However, Ju’s analysis suggests miners hold onto their assets, betting on a future price recovery.

“Bitcoin miners’ revenue has dropped to levels seen in early 2023 following the halving. Now they have two options: 1. Capitulation, or 2. Waiting for a rise in BTC price. There are no signs of capitulation for now,” Ju said.

This optimism is echoed by some analysts who foresee a potential recovery. Following the previous halvings, Bitcoin usually undergoes price fluctuations, historically leading to rallies due to increased asset scarcity. This pattern suggests a possible price uplift, aligning with the miners’ decision to hold.

Read more: Bitcoin Halving Cycles and Investment Strategies: What To Know

However, Charles Edwards, Founder of Capriole Investments, believes the recent downward price action could soon wreak havoc on Bitcoin miners. The electricity cost to operate the Bitcoin network is currently an astonishing $77,400 per BTC mined. This figure represents the direct energy expenses associated with mining each Bitcoin.

When the price falls below the electrical cost, it typically lasts only a few days every four years. According to Edwards, this scenario can lead to one of three outcomes: 

1. The price of Bitcoin could surge dramatically.
2. Approximately 15% of miners might cease operations.
3. Transaction fees could remain significantly higher than average.

This scenario highlights miners’ fragile balance between operational costs and market prices.

Read more: Bitcoin Halving History: Everything You Need To Know

For this reason, the market’s next movements are highly anticipated, with analysts keenly watching the $57,000 level. If this support breaks, it could trigger a wave of sales from miners, fulfilling the capitulation scenario.