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Will the FOMC Provide Relief?

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Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto markets are navigating challenging conditions, historically worsened by September’s seasonality struggles.

In a recent report, Kaiko researchers recently explored how a potential US rate cut and other key economic events could affect Bitcoin. These four charts provided by the analysts explain what to expect from BTC in the coming weeks.

Monthly Change in Bitcoin Price in September

As BeInCrypto reported, the third quarter has historically been challenging for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, with September often delivering the worst returns. Kaiko highlights that Bitcoin has declined in seven of the last twelve Septembers.

In 2024, this pattern continues, with Bitcoin down 7.5% in August and 6.3% so far in September. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading over 20% below its recent all-time high of nearly $73,500, recorded more than five months ago.

Read More: How To Buy Bitcoin (BTC) and Everything You Need To Know

Bitcoin Price September Performances Since 2012, Source: Kaiko
Bitcoin Price September Performance Since 2012. Source: Kaiko

However, according to Kaiko Research, upcoming US rate cuts could provide a boost to risk assets like Bitcoin. Bitget Wallet COO Alvin Kan shares this stance.

“At the Jackson Hole meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that it might be time for policy adjustments, leading to expectations of future interest rate cuts. The US Dollar Index responded by dropping sharply and is now fluctuating around 100. With a rate cut in September becoming a consensus expectation, the official start of rate cut trading could improve overall market liquidity, providing a boost to crypto assets,” Kan told BeInCrypto.

30-day Historical Volatility

According to the report, September is shaping up to be highly volatile, with Bitcoin’s 30-day historical volatility surging to 70%. This metric measures the fluctuation in an asset’s price over the past 30 days, reflecting how dramatically its price has moved within that period. 

Bitcoin’s current volatility is nearly double last year’s levels and is approaching the peak seen in March, when BTC hit an all-time high of over $73,000.

Bitcoin and Ethereum 30-D Volatility, Source Kaiko
Bitcoin and Ethereum 30D Volatility. Source: Kaiko

Ethereum (ETH) has also experienced heightened volatility, surpassing both March’s levels and Bitcoin’s, driven by ETH-specific events such as Jump Trading’s liquidations and the launch of Ethereum ETFs.

BTC Implied Volatility by Expiry

Since the start of September, Bitcoin’s implied volatility (IV) has risen after dipping in late August. The IV indicator measures market expectations for future price fluctuations based on current options trading activity. Higher IV suggests that traders anticipate larger price swings ahead, though it doesn’t specify the direction of the move.

Notably, short-term options expiries have seen the sharpest increase, with the September 13 expiry jumping from 52% to 61%, surpassing end-of-month contracts. For the layperson, when short-term implied volatility exceeds longer-term measures, it indicates heightened market stress, referred to as an “inverted structure.”

Bitcoin Implied Volatility, Source: Kaiko
Bitcoin Implied Volatility. Source: Kaiko

Risk managers often see an inverted structure as a signal of heightened uncertainty or market stress. As a result, they may interpret this as a warning to de-risk their portfolios by reducing exposure to volatile assets or hedging against potential downside.

“These market expectations align with last week’s US jobs report, which dampened hopes for a 50bps decrease. However, upcoming US CPI data could still sway the odds,” Kaiko researchers note.

Trade Volume

The Bitcoin trade volumes chart also highlights the current market volatility, showing increased trader participation. Cumulative trade volume is nearing a record $3 trillion, up nearly 20% in the first eight months of 2024 after its last peak in 2021.

Read more: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030

Bitcoin Trade Volumes, Source: Kaiko
Bitcoin Trade Volums. Source: Kaiko

Traditionally, Bitcoin investors see a rate cut as a positive market catalyst. However, concerns remain about how the market might interpret a larger-than-expected cut. Markus Thielen, founder of 10X Research, cautions that a 50 basis points rate cut could be perceived as a sign of urgency, potentially triggering a retreat from risk assets like Bitcoin.

“While a 50 basis point cut by the Fed might signal deeper concerns to the markets, the Fed’s primary focus will be mitigating economic risks rather than managing market reactions,” Thielen said in a note to clients.

Alongside rate cut speculations, other factors contributing to crypto market fluctuations include the upcoming US elections. As BeInCrypto reported, the Donald Trump versus Kamala Harris debate is expected to trigger movement, particularly in Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Crypto Whales Are Buying These Altcoins Post Market Crash

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Crypto whales are making quiet moves in Ethereum (ETH) and Optimism (OP), while accumulation remains stagnant—or even negative—across most other major coins. Between April 4 and 6, both ETH and OP saw a notable increase in large wallet holders despite a harsh market correction.

This behavior often signals early confidence from institutional players, hinting at potential reversals ahead. With ETH nearing $1,400 and OP trading at three-year lows, the next few days could be pivotal if whale accumulation translates into renewed bullish momentum.

Ethereum (ETH)

Between April 5 and April 6, crypto whales accumulated ETH. The number of Ethereum whale wallets—those holding between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH—increased from 5,340 to 5,388, signaling a quiet accumulation phase during the broader market correction.

Tracking these large holders is crucial, as their behavior often precedes major market moves; when whales accumulate, it can indicate growing confidence in the asset’s long-term value and hint at a potential trend reversal.

Number of Addresses Holding Between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH.
Number of Addresses Holding Between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH. Source: Santiment.

If Ethereum’s current downtrend continues, ETH price could break below $1,400 for the first time since January 2023, opening the door to deeper losses.

However, the recent uptick in whale activity suggests some optimism beneath the surface. If momentum shifts and ETH manages to reclaim $1,748, it could rise further toward $1,938 and, with a strong enough rally, even retest the $2,000 mark—restoring a key psychological and technical level for bulls.

Optimism (OP)

The number of Optimism whale wallets—holding between 10,000 and 1,000,000 OP—rose from 4,138 on April 4 to 4,151 on April 6, suggesting that large holders are accumulating despite the ongoing market correction.

This increase in whale activity may indicate long-term confidence in the project, even as the broader market faces heavy selling pressure.

In periods of uncertainty like now, such accumulation can be an early sign of a potential price reversal, as institutional or high-net-worth investors often act ahead of retail sentiment.

Number of Addresses Holding Between 10,000 and 1,000,000 OP.
Number of Addresses Holding Between 10,000 and 1,000,000 OP. Source: Santiment.

Currently trading near its lowest levels in nearly three years, OP is under significant downward pressure. If the correction persists, the token could break below the $0.50 support level.

However, if the recent whale accumulation reflects a shift in momentum, OP could rebound to test resistance at $0.65.

A breakout from that level may open the path toward $0.77 and, in a stronger recovery, even retest $0.84.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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MANTRA Launches $108 Million RWA Fund As OM Price Surges

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MANTRA is planning to launch a $108,888,888 Ecosystem Fund to drive RWA innovation over the next four years and help accelerate projects in MANTRA’s blockchain ecosystem.

MANTRA’s native token OM has shown significant resilience in the current market downturn. OM is currently the only altcoin among the top 30 tokens to have posted positive gains over the past 24 hours. 

MANTRA’s RWA Ecosystem Fund

MANTRA, a Layer-1 blockchain for asset tokenization, is heavily invested in the RWA market. Since its mainnet launch in 2024, it has carried out major partnerships and planned to tokenize huge volumes of assets.

Today, it announced the launch of a $108,888,888 Ecosystem Fund to propel RWA innovation in its blockchain ecosystem.

“In an era where blockchain technology is revolutionizing finance, the MEF will serve as a catalyst for groundbreaking projects that drive real-world adoption through a focus upon the tokenization of real world assets. We are opening doors for visionary founders and teams to join us in building and creating a thriving ecosystem,” claimed John Patrick Mullin, founder and CEO.

Mullin delivered these comments in an exclusive press release shared with BeInCrypto. MANTRA plans to deploy this fund over the next four years, working with “a strong network of partners and investors” to maximize RWA growth.

The firm also claimed that its new license approvals in Dubai will allow it to facilitate advanced financial services.

MANTRA successfully obtained a Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) license, which will allow it to act as a crypto exchange and offer broker-dealer, management, and Investment Services. With these tools, the network can direct RWA investment.

Since the RWA Fund announcement, the OM token has actually performed quite well today. Given the wide-scale liquidations across the crypto market due to Trump’s tariff threats, OM has gained over 2% in the past 24 hours.

In fact, MANTRA’s native token is the only cryptocurrency among the top 30 to have any positive gains. It’s also among the top 5 highest gainers in the market today.

mantra (OM) price chart
MANTRA (OM) Daily Price Chart. Source: BeInCrypto

Overall, investors seem extremely confident in MATRA’s growth and the network’s continuous development. The project’s latest investment fund reflects its commitment to influencing positive developments in the RWA ecosystem.

Meanwhile, the find will likely encourage more RWA projects to launch or shift to the network, increasing MANTRA’s utility. According to DefiLlama, the network only has $4.2 million in total value locked (TVL).

With this fund, the project’s main goal will be to improve participation and long-term engagement on the blockchain.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.





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AAVE Buybacks & Key Events This Week

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Several major developments across various ecosystems are expected this week, suggesting imminent volatility for tokens within the respective niches. From Aave buybacks to Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, some very interesting updates are in the pipeline.

Traders and investors can front-run the following developments and position their portfolios strategically ahead of the following events.  

AAVE Buybacks

AAVE, the native token of the Aave lending protocol, will see buybacks commence on Wednesday, April 9. This follows approval from the Aave DAO.

This move involves allocating $4 million in aEthUSDT to repurchase AAVE tokens from the open market. The goal is to reduce circulating supply and potentially boost token value.

“Buybacks will reduce AAVE’s circulating supply, making tokens scarcer and more valuable. Activating fee mechanism will create a new revenue stream for protocol; increasing demand,” noted Langerius, founder of Hunters of Web3.

The repurchased tokens will be moved to the Ecosystem Reserve, signaling a long-term strategy to enhance scarcity and reward holders. This could see the AAVE token price surge, especially if demand remains steady or increases.

The buybacks follow a tokenomics update that activates a fee switch, introducing a new revenue stream for the protocol.

“New Aavenomics update. This is Fee Switch on steroids,” wrote Stani Kulechov, CEO and founder of Aave.

This dual approach, which reduces supply and generates revenue, could make AAVE a more attractive investment.

AAVE Price Performance
AAVE Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

BeInCrypto data shows the AAVE token was trading for $123.62 as of this writing, down by over 16% in the last 24 hours.

Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs

Another crypto headline to watch this week concerns President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which are expected to take effect on April 9. The president will introduce a tiered levy system (10%, 15%, 20%) targeting countries like China, Vietnam, and the EU. The UK faces the lowest band.

While these tariffs bolster US economic independence, they could ripple through crypto markets. In the recent past, tariffs spooked investors, driving sell-offs in risk assets, evidenced by Bitcoin’s volatility after past tariff announcements.

Traders should brace for short-term dips, particularly in Bitcoin and altcoins tied to global trade dynamics. However, Trump’s pro-crypto stance, including his strategic Bitcoin reserve, might mitigate some losses, as could a decision to delay the tariffs.

“As soon as he delays or cancels the “reciprocal” tariffs the market will bounce 10%+ immediately. That is want everyone is waiting and hoping for,” one user highlighted.

Such an outcome, however, is contingent on investors viewing digital assets as a hedge against tariff-induced inflation or currency devaluation.

$47 Million Aptos Unlocks

On April 12, the Aptos network will unlock 11.31 million APT tokens worth approximately $47.73 million and comprising 1.87% of the circulating supply. The tokens will be allocated to the community, core contributors, the foundation, and investors.

Aptos Token Unlocks
Aptos Token Unlocks. Source: Tokenomist

Token unlocks often lead to selling pressure as early investors or team members liquidate holdings. As such, the Saturday event could drive APT’s price down.

“Aptos is struggling with a strong downtrend and upcoming token unlocks, which could further dilute its value,” one user noted.

Neutron’s Mercury Upgrade

Neutron’s Mercury upgrade, its most significant to date, launches on April 9. The event promises enhanced functionality for this Cosmos-based blockchain. Such upgrades improve scalability, security, or interoperability—key for Neutron’s DeFi and cross-chain ambitions.

“Neutron’s upcoming Mercury upgrade will 11x network throughput,” the network shared.

It follows proposal #993, supported by Stakecito, and aims to transition Neutron from Cosmos Hub’s Interchain Security to full sovereignty via the Mercury upgrade. The move would enhance Neutron’s role as a smart contract platform while maintaining ties with Cosmos Hub.

A successful rollout could bolster Neutron’s position in the Cosmos ecosystem, attracting more projects and capital.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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