Trump’s Tariffs and Inflation to Fuel Market Uncertainty, JPMorgan

Global traders, including those in crypto, should brace for volatility as tariffs and inflation take center stage in shaping market trends, according to a new survey by JPMorgan Chase.

The survey’s findings indicated a significant rise in concern compared to the previous year when only 27% of respondents cited inflation as a major issue.

Tariffs To Stir Market Uncertainty, JP Morgan Survey Says

Over the past week, US President Donald Trump introduced a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada and a 10% tariff on goods from China, only to delay some of these measures shortly afterward.

“…We further agreed to immediately pause the anticipated tariffs for one month…,” Trump revealed in a post.

Before the pause, however, the tariffs had triggered significant market fluctuations, with stocks, currencies, and commodities all responding to policy announcements.

Against this backdrop, an annual survey featuring institutional trading clients from JPMorgan Chase revealed that 51% of traders believe inflation and tariffs will be the most influential factors in global markets for 2025.

The survey cites the back-and-forth nature of these policies, saying that it has led to sharp market movements. This engagement alludes to China’s move to announce a 10% tariff on US crude oil and agricultural machinery in response to US tariffs on all Chinese imports.

On the inflation front, traders view Trump’s tariff policies as inherently inflationary, pushing prices higher across multiple sectors. Additionally, fewer traders are worried about a potential recession. Only 7% of those surveyed cited it as a major concern compared to 18% in 2024.

The report also highlights changing market structures. It emphasizes that electronic trading is expected to expand across all asset classes, including emerging markets like crypto.

Volatility Remains a Core Concern

JPMorgan’s survey also identified market volatility among the challenges to watch in 2025. Specifically, 41% of respondents named it their primary concern, up from 28% in 2024. Unlike in previous years when volatility was expected around key scheduled events, traders are now experiencing sudden market swings driven by unpredictable political and economic news.

“What distinguishes this year is the somewhat unexpected timing of volatility. Unlike in the past, when volatility was tied to scheduled events like elections or nonfarm payroll data, we’re seeing more sudden fluctuations in response to news headlines around the administration’s plans, leading to knee-jerk reactions in the marketplace,” Reuters reported, citing Eddie Wen, global head of digital markets at JPMorgan.

Meanwhile, the broader financial markets are not the only ones reacting to Trump’s tariff policies. Bitcoin and the crypto sector have also felt the impact of these economic shifts. When Trump delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index surged to a new 2025 high.

Likewise, the news triggered a rebound in Bitcoin prices. Traders interpreted the delay as a sign of potential economic stability. Additionally, when the US paused tariffs on Mexico, XRP saw a significant recovery. This highlights the direct influence of trade policies on the digital asset market.

However, China’s retaliation to Trump’s tariffs introduced fresh instability, further exacerbating market fluctuations.

“[Ethereum would fall] Back to 2200-2400 if China trade war is real,” crypto analyst Andrew Kang wrote.

Elsewhere, Glassnode highlighted the unusual nature of the current Bitcoin cycle. As BeInCrypto reported, the blockchain analytics firm noted how macroeconomic factors—including tariffs—play an outsized role. Unlike previous cycles that primarily followed internal crypto industry trends, the 2025 cycle could realize significant influence from global economic policies.