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Experts Raise Red Flags Over Finances

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Circle’s initial public offering (IPO) filing has raised concerns among industry experts, who are sounding alarms over the company’s financial health, distribution costs, and valuation. 

While the move marks a significant step toward mainstream financial integration, experts’ skepticism casts doubt on the company’s long-term prospects.

Analysts Highlight Red Flags With Circle IPO

On April 1, BeInCrypto reported that Circle had filed for an IPO. The company plans to list its Class A common stock on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under “CRCL.”

Circle’s IPO filing reveals revenue of $1.67 billion in 2024, a notable increase from previous years. However, a closer examination of the company’s financials has uncovered some challenges.

Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, noted that revenue increased 16% year over year. Yet, at the same time, the company reported a 29% decrease in EBITDA year over year, indicating a decline in operational profitability. Additionally, net income fell by 42%, reflecting a significant drop in overall profitability.

Circle Financial Data
Circle Financial Data. Source: X/MatthewSigel

Sigel pointed out four factors contributing to the decline in these financial metrics. He explained that the company’s rapid expansion and new service integrations negatively impacted net income. 

Furthermore, the discontinuation of services like Circle Yield reduced other revenue streams. This, in turn, exacerbated the decline in profitability. 

“Costs related to restructuring, legal settlements, and acquisition-related expenses also played a role in the decline in EBITDA and net income, despite overall revenue growth,” Sigel added.

Importantly, he focused on Circle’s increased distribution and transaction costs. Sigel revealed that the cost rose due to higher fees paid to partners like Coinbase and Binance.

A related post by Farside Investors on X (formerly Twitter) shed further light on these expenses.

“In 2024, the company spent over $1 billion on “distribution and transaction costs,” probably much higher than Tether as a % of revenue,” the post read.

This prompts speculation that Circle may be overspending to maintain its market share in the competitive stablecoin sector. The company’s historical performance further fuels skepticism.

Farside Investors added that in 2022, Circle recorded a staggering $720 million loss. Notably, the year was marked by significant turmoil in the crypto industry, including the high-profile collapses of FTX and Three Arrows Capital (3AC). 

This suggests that Circle may be vulnerable to market shocks. Thus, it calls into question the company’s risk management capabilities—especially in the inherently volatile crypto market.

“The gross creation and redemption numbers are a lot higher than we would have thought for USDC. Gross creations in a year are many multiples higher than the outstanding balance,” Farside Investors remarked.

In addition, analyst Omar expressed doubts about Circle’s $5 billion valuation. 

“Nothing to love in the Circle IPO filing and no idea how it prices at $5 billion,” he questioned.

He drew attention to several concerns, including the company’s gross margins being severely impacted by high distribution costs. The analyst also pointed out that the deregulation of the US market is poised to disrupt Circle’s position. 

Additionally, Omar stressed that Circle spends over $250 million annually on compensation and another $140 million on general and administrative costs, raising questions about its financial efficiency. He also noted that interest rates—core income drivers for Circle—will likely decline, presenting additional challenges.

“32x ’24 earnings for a business that just lost its mini-monopoly and facing several headwinds is expensive when growth structurally challenged,” Omar said.

Analysis of Circle's Finances Ahead of IPO
Analysis of Circle’s Valuation Ahead of IPO. Source: X/Omar

Ultimately, the analyst concluded that the IPO filing was a desperate attempt to secure liquidity before facing serious market difficulties.

Meanwhile, Wyatt Lonergan, General Partner at VanEck, shared his predictions for Circle’s IPO, outlining four potential scenarios. In the base case, he forecasted that Circle would capitalize on the stablecoin narrative and secure key partnerships to drive growth. 

In a bear case, Lonergan speculated that poor market conditions might lead to a Coinbase buyout.

“Circle IPOs, the market continues to tank, Circle stock goes with it. Poor business fundamentals cited. Coinbase swoops in to buy at a discount to the IPO price. USDC is all theirs at long last. Coinbase acquires Circle for something close to the IPO price, and they never go public,” Lonergan claimed.

Lastly, he outlined a probable scenario where Ripple bids up Circle’s valuation to a staggering $15 to $20 billion and acquires the company.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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PENDLE Token Outperforms BTC and ETH with a 10% Rally

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PENDLE has surged by 10% in the past 24 hours, making it the market’s top gainer during this period. The altcoin has even outperformed major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).

With buying activity still underway, the PENDLE token is poised to extend its uptrend in the short term. 

PENDLE Soars 43% After March Lows

PENDLE cratered to a seven-month low of $1.81 on March 11. As sellers got exhausted, the token’s buyers regained dominance and drove a rally. Trading at $3.24 at press time, PENDLE’s value has since climbed 43%. 

The double-digit surge in the altcoin’s price has pushed it above the Leading Spans A and B of its Ichimoku Cloud indicator. They now form dynamic support levels below PENDLE’s price at $2.73 and $2.80, respectively. 

PENDLE Ichimoku Cloud.
PENDLE Ichimoku Cloud. Source: TradingView

The Ichimoku Cloud tracks the momentum of an asset’s market trends and identifies potential support/resistance levels. When an asset trades above the leading spans A and B of this indicator, its price is in a strong bullish trend. The area above the Cloud is considered a “bullish zone,” indicating that market sentiment is positive, with PENDLE buyers in control. 

This pattern suggests that the token’s price could continue to rise, with the Cloud acting as a support level if prices pull back.

In addition, PENDLE currently trades above its Super Trend indicator, confirming the likelihood of extended gains. 

PENDLE Super Trend Line.
PENDLE Super Trend Line. Source: TradingView

The Super Trend indicator tracks the direction and strength of an asset’s price trend. It is displayed as a line on the price chart, changing color to signify the trend: green for an uptrend and red for a downtrend.

If an asset’s price is above this line, it signals bullish momentum in the market. In this scenario, this line represents a support level that will prevent the price from any significant dips. For PENDLE, this is formed at $2.34. 

PENDLE Holds Above Key Trendline

Since its rally began on March 11, PENDLE has traded above an ascending trendline. This pattern forms when a series of higher lows connect, indicating that the price of an asset is consistently rising over time. 

It represents a bullish trend, showing that PENDLE demand exceeds supply, with buyers pushing prices higher. 

This trendline acts as a support level. With the token’s price bouncing off the trendline, it signals that the asset is in an uptrend and likely to continue. In this scenario, PENDLE could rally to $3.60.

PENDLE Price Analysis.
PENDLE Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, if selloffs commence, the PENDLE token could lose some of its recent gains and fall to $3.06.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Will the SEC Approve Grayscale’s Solana ETF?

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Grayscale has submitted a registration statement with the SEC to convert its Grayscale Solana Trust (GSOL) into an ETF listed on NYSE Arca. 

Despite the filing, prediction markets remain unconvinced about the chances of approval.

Is a Solana ETF Approval Still Unlikely for Q2?

On Polymarket, odds for a Solana ETF approval in the second quarter of 2025 stand at just 23%. Broader expectations for any 2025 approval are at 83%, down from 92% earlier this year.

The decline reflects regulatory delays. In March, the SEC extended review timelines for several ETF applications tied to Solana, XRP, and other altcoins. 

solana etf odds polymarket
Polymarket Odds on a Solana ETF Approval by July 31. Source: Polymarket

This pattern suggests the agency may be holding off on decisions until a permanent chair takes over. Mark Uyeda, currently serving as interim chair, has not signaled a shift in stance.

Paul Atkins, Trump’s nominee to lead the agency, appeared before the Senate last week. Lawmakers questioned his involvement in crypto-related businesses, adding further uncertainty around future approvals.

Grayscale’s latest filing excludes staking, which could speed up the review process. The SEC has previously objected to staking features in ETF proposals. 

When spot Ethereum ETFs moved forward last year, Grayscale, Fidelity, and Ark Invest/21Shares all removed staking components to align with the SEC’s expectations at the time.

Under Gary Gensler’s leadership, the SEC expressed concern that proof-of-stake protocols could fall under securities law. Asset managers adjusted their applications accordingly to move forward.

Following approvals for spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, several firms aim to expand their offerings to include other cryptocurrencies. They plan to offer access through traditional brokerage accounts without requiring direct asset custody.

Solana remains a strong contender due to its growing futures market in the US and a more favorable regulatory environment. Analysts view it as one of the next likely approvals if the SEC opens the door to more altcoin ETFs.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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XRP Price Vulnerable To Falling Below $2 After 18% Decline

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XRP has faced a significant correction in recent weeks, resulting in an 18% decline in the altcoin’s price. As a result, XRP is currently struggling to maintain upward momentum, with investors losing confidence. 

This recent slump has raised concerns about the asset’s future, especially as certain XRP holders begin to sell their positions, increasing bearish pressure.

XRP Investors Are Pulling Back

The recent downturn in XRP’s price has triggered a sharp spike in the “Age Consumed” metric. This indicator tracks the movement of coins from long-term holders (LTHs) and has reached its highest level in over four months. The increase suggests that LTHs, who have been holding XRP for extended periods, are now losing patience. 

This selling behavior may be driven by the lack of price recovery and the overall weak market conditions that have not improved. These holders appear to be attempting to limit their losses by liquidating their positions, which in turn increases the downward pressure on XRP’s price. This mass selling from LTHs further compounds the challenges for XRP, as their decision to sell is often seen as a sign of waning confidence in the cryptocurrency. 

XRP Age Consumed
XRP Age Consumed. Source: Santiment

XRP’s market momentum appears to be weakening, as evidenced by the recent decline in the number of new addresses. The metric tracking new addresses has fallen to a five-month low, suggesting that XRP is struggling to attract new investors. This lack of fresh interest signals growing skepticism within the broader market, with potential investors hesitant to buy into an asset that has failed to deliver strong price action.

The drop in new addresses reflects a broader trend of reduced market traction and the lack of conviction from buyers. When combined with the selling pressure from LTHs, it creates a challenging environment for XRP to regain bullish momentum

XRP New Addresses
XRP New Addresses. Source Glassnode

XRP Price Needs A Boost

XRP’s price is currently holding at $2.06, just above the key support level of $2.02. If it manages to stabilize and break through the immediate resistance at $2.14, there could be a potential rebound, taking XRP higher.

However, with the continued weakness in market sentiment and the aforementioned bearish cues, XRP remains vulnerable to further declines. If the support of $2.02 fails, the price could drop further to $1.94, extending the 18% decline noted in the last two weeks.

XRP Price Analysis
XRP Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

If XRP manages to reclaim the $2.14 level and holds above it, the price could make its way toward $2.27. Breaching this level would invalidate the bearish outlook, signaling a potential recovery and restoring investor confidence in the cryptocurrency.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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