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Why Recency Bias Is Amplifying Fear Around Bitcoin’s Price

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The Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped to 25 yesterday, signaling “Extreme Fear” in the cryptocurrency market. Yet, an analyst suggests that the current panic might be exaggerated, largely driven by recency bias.

This comes as Bitcoin is navigating market volatility triggered by broader macroeconomic conditions. The leading cryptocurrency has fallen 11.4% year to date, reflecting the wider sentiment of fear and uncertainty.

Is the Recency Bias Inflating Fear Around Bitcoin’s Price?

In the latest X (formerly Twitter) post, analyst Lark Davis highlighted an interesting trend in the Crypto Fear and Greed Index. This sentiment gauge measures market emotions from 0 (Extreme Fear) to 100 (Extreme Greed). 

On April 3, it plummeted to a low of 25, indicating heightened anxiety among investors, even though Bitcoin was trading around $80,000. In fact, the latest value of 28 also indicated substantial fear among market participants.

Crypto Fear and Greed Index
Crypto Fear and Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me

Nonetheless, according to Davis, the sentiment was out of place, given Bitcoin’s price performance. He noted that the index’s decline contrasted with market conditions six months prior. Despite Bitcoin trading at $65,000, the index showed a neutral reading then.

“This is what’s called “recency bias,” and you can leverage it,” he wrote.

For context, recency bias refers to the tendency of investors or traders to give more weight to recent events or information when making decisions while disregarding longer-term trends or data. This psychological bias often leads to overreaction to short-term market movements, such as a sudden price spike or a crash.

“So that’s why we’re seeing higher fear readings at today’s $80,000, than yesterday’s $65,000,” David remarked.

He suggested that the fear seen in the market is not entirely justified and that reactions to short-term fluctuations are often more extreme than necessary.

This coincides with Bitcoin continuing to see fluctuations amid President Trump’s tariff plans and fears of a potential recession. While it remains relatively steady compared to traditional markets, the decline in Bitcoin’s value has still raised doubts about its stability and long-term potential.

Notably, Michael Saylor, chairman of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), highlighted that short-term volatility doesn’t reflect Bitcoin’s long-term potential.

“Bitcoin is most volatile because it is most useful,” he said.

Saylor explained that Bitcoin’s volatility is largely due to its liquidity and 24/7 availability, Which means it is more susceptible to rapid sell-offs during market panics. However, Saylor reiterated that while Bitcoin behaves like a risk asset in the short term, its long-term value is unaffected by these fluctuations, reinforcing its role as a store of value.

Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, provided another perspective on the ongoing market conditions. 

“Some of y’all are running scurred, but I love tariffs,” Hayes stated.

According to Hayes, global economic imbalances will eventually be corrected. While short-term market pain is inevitable, Hayes predicts that the solution will likely involve printing more money, which he views as beneficial for Bitcoin.

“The $ is weakening alongside foreigners selling US tech stocks and bringing money home. This is good for BTC and gold over medium term,” he forecasted.

His comments align with BeInCrypto’s recent report on the inverse correlation between the US Dollar Index (DXY) and BTC. Thus, a decline in the former could benefit the latter. 

Bitcoin Price Performance
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

For now, Bitcoin continues to see modest losses. Over the past week, it has declined by 4.5%. Meanwhile, the coin has shed 1.0% of its value over the past day. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $82,855.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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5 Facts About Bitcoin’s Creator

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April 5, 2025, marks what would be the 50th birthday of Satoshi Nakamoto—the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin. This alleged birthday is based on the date listed in his P2P Foundation profile. 

While Nakamoto’s true identity remains unconfirmed, his legacy continues to shape the digital financial landscape. Here are five facts about the elusive Bitcoin architect:

April 5 Wasn’t Random

Nakamoto listed April 5, 1975, as his birthday—exactly 42 years after the US government banned private gold ownership under Executive Order 6102 on April 5, 1933, to stabilize the dollar. 

Bitcoin, by contrast, was designed to be a decentralized, deflationary alternative to fiat currency. Notably, BTC difficulty adjustment happens every 2016 block—2016 being 6102 in reverse.

Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin Fortune Remains Untouched

Satoshi’s wallet, believed to hold 1.096 million BTC, has remained untouched since early 2010. Over the past decade, its value has risen more than 333-fold, now exceeding $91 billion. 

Despite the wallet’s inactivity, CoinJoin transactions are regularly sent to its address. Some view this as an act of homage or a method of obfuscation.

Satoshi Nakamoto's Bitcoin Holdings
Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin Holdings. Source: Arkham

Still No Definitive Identity

In March 2024, a UK court ruled that Australian computer scientist Craig Wright is not Satoshi, calling his claims “deliberately false.” 

An October 2024 HBO documentary controversially pointed to Canadian developer Peter Todd, who strongly denied any connection. 

More recently, internet theories have speculated on Jack Dorsey’s possible ties, though no evidence supports the claim. Nakamoto’s identity remains the internet’s most persistent mystery.

The Genesis Block’s Silent Message

Embedded in Bitcoin’s first block is the headline: “The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks.” The line is from a UK newspaper.

It is seen as a critique of centralized monetary policy and remains one of Nakamoto’s only public statements beyond technical documentation.

bitcoin genesis block
Bitcoin Genesis Block. Source: Wikipedia

Bitcoin’s Design Still Holds

Fifteen years after its launch, Bitcoin remains secure and deflationary by design. Nakamoto’s codebase, while modified and improved by the open-source community, still forms the foundation of the network, securing over $1.6 trillion in value.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Bitcoin Eyes Breakout as Global M2 Hits Record $108 Trillion

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The global M2 money supply has surged to an all-time high of $108.4 trillion, raising fresh questions about Bitcoin’s next move. 

The milestone comes amid escalating economic uncertainty following former President Donald Trump’s new “Liberation Day” tariffs and China’s swift retaliatory measures, which together have roiled global markets.

What is M2 and Why Does It Matter for Bitcoin?

Despite the extreme volatility over the past two weeks, Bitcoin’s average value has remained almost unchanged. 

Analysts claim that Bitcoin’s latest volatility reflects macroeconomic fears and fluctuating long/short ratios – but the largest cryptocurrency is nowhere near a bear market

This is largely due to the historical correlation between rising M2 levels and significant Bitcoin rallies.

M2 is a broad measure of a country or region’s money supply. It includes physical cash, checking and savings deposits, and other liquid assets that can be quickly converted to cash. 

Bitcoin and M2 Money Supply Chart
Bitcoin and M2 Money Supply Chart In the Past Year. Source: BGeometrics

When M2 increases, it typically signals greater liquidity in the financial system. It simply means more money that often seeks returns in riskier assets such as equities, real estate, or cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

Past surges in the M2 money supply have preceded major Bitcoin rallies. Following the COVID-era stimulus programs in 2020-2021, the US M2 supply jumped by over 25%. 

This correlated with Bitcoin’s rise from under $10,000 in mid-2020 to an all-time high of over $69,000 by November 2021. Analysts point to a similar pattern today, albeit with a lag.

“Market proponents say that Trump’s tariffs are primarily a negotiation strategy, and their effect on businesses and consumers will remain manageable. Adding to the uncertainty are the inflationary pressures that could challenge the US Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting outlook. Also, resolving the debt ceiling remains a pressing issue, as the Treasury currently relies upon ‘extraordinary measures’ to meet US financial obligations. The exact timeline for when these measures will be exhausted is unclear, but analysts anticipate they may run out after the first quarter,” said Maksym Sakharov, Co-Founder of WeFi Deobank.

Also, Bitcoin’s price often trails global M2 growth by roughly two months. 

With M2 accelerating since late February and the current spike taking it to its highest level ever, market watchers suggest that Bitcoin could see a delayed but strong upside if liquidity continues to expand.

However, macroeconomic headwinds could temper near-term gains. Trump’s tariff shock and China’s tit-for-tat response have already triggered the steepest Wall Street losses in five years. 

Investors may delay allocating capital to high-volatility assets until trade tensions stabilize.

Still, with M2 surging and Bitcoin supply capped, the setup for a renewed bullish move remains in place. That is if historical patterns hold and markets regain confidence.

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Vitalik’s L2 Roadmap, XRP Unlock and More

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This week in crypto, a lot happened across different ecosystems, despite the broader market’s prevailing bearish sentiment. Besides Bitcoin’s (BTC) drop to a 7-day low of $81,400, here are this week’s biggest updates.

For starters, crypto markets could have a new Ethereum Layer-2 roadmap. Meanwhile, Hyperliquid users could soon start enjoying better security.

Vitalik Buterin Pushes for Ethereum L2 Roadmap

Co-founder Vitalik Buterin outlined a roadmap for Ethereum’s Layer-2 (L2) ecosystem, emphasizing decentralization, security, and cost-efficiency.

He advocates for a model that reduces centralization risks while ensuring user-friendly experiences for developers and investors.

Buterin also reiterated his commitment to open-source funding within the Ethereum community. This stance comes as the phrase “public goods” has become politically and socially loaded. The phrase is often used in ways that prioritize perception over impact.

Against this backdrop, Buterin proposed shifting the focus from “public goods funding” to “open-source funding.” He said this would encourage greater financial support for projects that enhance network security and scalability.

“A big part of the reason why the term ‘public good’ is vulnerable to social gaming is precisely the fact that the definition of ‘public good’ is stretched so easily,” Buterin argued.

His vision aligns with ongoing efforts to strengthen Ethereum’s L2 playing field and make it more resistant to potential censorship or network failures.

Hyperliquid Tightens Security After JELLY Crisis

Decentralized trading platform Hyperliquid also features among the key headlines this week in crypto. The platform announced new security measures following the JELLY incident, which resulted in substantial losses for users.

To prevent future incidents, the platform has increased monitoring, enhanced smart contract audits, and introduced stricter withdrawal limits.

Hyperliquid’s response aims to restore confidence in decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms amid rising security concerns.

“Hyperliquid is not perfect, but it will continue to iterate and grow through the collective efforts of builders, traders, and supporters,” the network explained.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) Price Performance
Hyperliquid (HYPE) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

BeInCrypto data shows that Hyperliquid’s HYPE token price was $11.89 as of this writing, up by a modest 0.97% in the last 24 hours.

Crypto Markets, Equities Sync Amid Recession Fears

Another headline this week in crypto was how the digital assets industry continues to mirror traditional financial (TradFi). Specifically, more than ever, the crypto market appears synchronized with indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

The synchrony comes as investors react to growing recession concerns. Bitcoin and Ethereum have followed similar downturns seen in stock markets, reinforcing the argument that cryptocurrencies are increasingly correlated with broader economic conditions.

With macroeconomic uncertainty looming, analysts warn that crypto could further decline if economic conditions worsen. However, some argue long-term investors may find opportunities in current market lows.

According to former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by year-end. However, this forecast is contingent on the Federal Reserve (Fed) shifting to Quantitative Easing (QE) to support markets.

Meanwhile, former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal pointed to macroeconomic indicators that suggest a Bitcoin rally is imminent. He shared a chart correlating the global M2 money supply and Bitcoin’s price.

Based on history, Bitcoin tends to rise around 10 weeks after M2 increases. Pal’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin may soon enter a bullish phase.

“The waiting game is almost over…the 10-week lead is my preferred… but,” Pal stated.

Ripple Unlocked $1 Billion in XRP

Also, this week in crypto, Ripple released another 1 billion XRP from its escrow, increasing selling pressure on the token.

XRP Price Performance
XRP Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

Historically, such unlocks have been followed by price declines. This aligns with recent Keyrock research that showed that 90% of unlocks create negative price pressure.

The tokens were moved from the “Ripple (27)” escrow address to two operational wallets, “Ripple (12)” and “Ripple (13).” This suggested the intention to distribute or sell XRP.

Investors remain cautious, watching for signs of potential accumulation. Meanwhile, others anticipate further downside as XRP struggles to regain upward momentum amid broader market uncertainty.

Notwithstanding, there are other positive developments for the XRP market. According to Glassnode data, Retail investors are choosing XRP over Bitcoin, and nearly half of XRP’s realized cap is increasing.

Another bullish fundamental for XRP this week is Coinbase’s filing for a futures contract offering in the Ripple token. The move indicates shifting regulatory tides in the US and also bolsters XRP ETF (exchange-traded funds) approval odds.

Standard Chartered Predicts Crypto Winners

Standard Chartered also made it to the top headlines this week in crypto. The bank identified Bitcoin (BTC) and Avalanche (AVAX) as the primary beneficiaries of a potential post-Liberation Day crypto market surge.

The bank suggests that favorable macroeconomic conditions and increasing institutional adoption could propel these assets higher in the coming months.  

“We expect volatility to edge gradually lower once the ETF market matures, increasing Bitcoin’s share of an optimal gold-BTC portfolio. Access plus lower volatility could see Bitcoin reach the $500,000 level before Trump leaves office,” wrote Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, in an email to BeInCrypto.

This forecast aligns with the growing narrative that institutional interest will play a key role in shaping the next phase of the crypto market cycle. However, skeptics remain cautious, citing regulatory uncertainty and potential economic headwinds as factors that could delay or dampen such a rally.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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