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Crypto Analyst Uses Historical Data To Predict When Bitcoin Price Will Reach $200,000

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The Bitcoin price has been expected to hit the 6-figure mark for a couple of years now, but this target continues to be elusive for the cryptocurrency. However, with a crypto bull run predicted by experts to be around the corner, the expectations for a 6-figure Bitcoin price have emerged once again. One crypto analyst in particular has taken it a step further, predicting when the Bitcoin price will hit $200,000 based off of historical data.

Bitcoin Power Law And Exponential Decay Theory

In an X (formerly Twitter) post, pseudonymous crypto analyst @apsk32 pointed out a 13-year trend that has held true for Bitcoin since its inception. This trend uses a power law equation and an exponential decay to help pinpoint how high the Bitcoin price will go in each cycle and how low it could possibly drop after.

The Power Law Cycle Cloud, demonstrated by the crypto analyst in a video attached to the X post, showed how high the BTC price has risen and dropped in the last three bull and bear cycles. Using the same trend, the crypto analyst has proposed how high the Bitcoin price will rise.

According to the trend, the crypto analyst believes that the Bitcoin price will break the 6-figure mark and peak just below or at $200,000. The year when this is expected to happen is 2025, which would stick to the established four-year bull cycles for BTC.

Just like the trend predicts how high the price will go, it also shows how low it could drop in the bear market following the bull. It predicts that in 2026, BTC will fall around 57.5% from its $200,000 high to create a low at $85,000.

The crypto analyst further addressed concerns that the Bitcoin price could deviate from this trend. For one, he points out that Bitcoin proponent Micheal Saylor had said that “all your models will be broken!” However, the analyst highlights the fact that the model Saylor eventually presents for BTC also aligns with what the Power Law says.

The analyst also acknowledges the potential of an invalidation, saying, “I’ll watch for an invalidation of the channel. As someone who’s seen the value of their BTC fall by 80% twice, I’m looking for more than ‘this time will be different’.”

As for Bitcoin moving away from the power law and exponential decay trend, the crypto analyst explained, “We don’t have to like this, but we need to respect it.” He further added, “We can hope it will change while staying aware of this 13-year trend.”

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com
BTC price still above $66,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com



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Why ETF Issuers are Buying Bitcoin Despite Recession Fears

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According to new data from Arkham Intelligence, three major Bitcoin ETF issuers are acquiring huge amounts of BTC today. The ETFs had $220 million in net inflows yesterday, and the issuers are potentially expecting a spike in demand.

Although Bitcoin has seen wild fluctuations over the past couple of days, institutional investors might show more confidence in the leading cryptocurrency than the TradFi market.

Why are ETF Issuers Buying Bitcoin?

The crypto market experienced wider liquidations today, and fears of a broader recession are circulating heavily. Since President Trump imposed much higher tariffs than expected, crypto is mirroring the TradFi stock market with notable downturns.

However, the US spot Bitcoin ETFs market shows that institutional demand might rebound in the short term.

“Donald Trump just tariffed the entire world. So? Grayscale is buying Bitcoin, Fidelity is buying Bitcoin, Ark Invest is buying Bitcoin,” Arkham Intelligence noted on social media.

Arkham Intelligence, a prominent blockchain analysis platform, is not the only one noticing this trend in Bitcoin ETFs. Although Bitcoin’s price has been very volatile over the last two days, it has consistently managed to return to a rough baseline.

The asset’s long-short ratio was 0.94 last week, and it shifted to 1 today. This signals a move toward more balanced investor positioning.

Previously, with 48.5% long positions against 51.5% short positions, the market exhibited a slight bearish tilt. Today, the equal split—with 50.5% long positions—signals that investors have neutralized their stance, reducing the bearish bias.

Bitcoin Long/Short Ratio
Bitcoin Long/Short Ratio. Source: Coinglass

This balanced positioning suggests that market sentiment has stabilized, potentially reflecting increased uncertainty about near-term price movements. Bitcoin investors may now be awaiting clearer market signals before committing to a more directional bias.

Additionally, the Bitcoin ETFs have performed well in another key area. According to data from SoSo Value, the entire asset category had net inflows of $220 million yesterday.

Granted, Trump made his Liberation Day announcements after the stock market closed yesterday, but that’s still a very impressive amount of growth.

It is currently unclear exactly what impact today’s market turmoil had on the Bitcoin ETFs as an asset category. However, Arkham’s data suggests that these issuers are making notable investments in BTC.

If nothing else, it suggests that these firms are anticipating an uptick in demand in the near future. There are still many unanswered questions about tariffs, crypto markets, and the global economy as a whole.

If ETF inflows continue throughout this week, it will reflect institutional investors’ betting on BTC to remain more stable and sustainable than TradFi markets amid recession concerns.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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BlackRock Approved by FCA to Operate as UK Crypto Asset Firm

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BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, received approval from the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) to operate as a crypto asset firm.

This marks a significant milestone for the investment giant, allowing it to extend its influence in the growing digital asset market.

BlackRock Joins Crypto Elite with FCA Approval in the UK

With this approval, BlackRock can operate its newly launched European Bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP) as a UK entity.

According to the FCA’s website, BlackRock officially became the 51st company registered as a crypto asset firm on April 1, 2025. The firm joins a select group of financial entities, including Coinbase, PayPal, and Revolut, which have met the FCA’s stringent regulatory requirements.

FCA approves BlackRock registration
FCA approves BlackRock registration. Source: FCA website

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETP recently launched on the Euronext stock exchanges in Paris and Amsterdam. As BeInCrypto reported, this marked an expansion of the firm’s footprint in the European crypto investment market.

To attract investors, the product was introduced with a temporary fee waiver. It reduced its expense ratio to 0.15% until the end of the year. Once the waiver expires, the fee will revert to 0.25%, aligning with competing products like CoinShares’ Bitcoin ETP.

The iShares Bitcoin ETP is designed for institutional and informed retail investors. It offers a regulated and cost-effective way to gain exposure to Bitcoin. This move also positions BlackRock as a leader in the European digital asset space, catering to the growing demand for crypto-based financial products.

Meanwhile, the FCA has faced criticism for its cautious approach to crypto regulation. It has only approved around 9% of all applicants seeking registration as crypto asset firms.

“This low level of application approval signifies potential concern for the UK’s ambition to become a crypto hub,” Alan Vey, founder of web3 firm Aventus and a former Brevan Howard developer, said recently.

The regulator has defended its strict policies. A statement on its website articulated that many submissions lack essential information or fail to meet compliance standards.

“We have rejected submissions that didn’t include key components necessary for us to carry out an assessment, or the poor quality of key components meant the submission was invalid,” the FCA wrote.

Therefore, BlackRock’s FCA approval is not a mean feat. It marks another step in the mainstream adoption of crypto. With the UK now part of BlackRock’s growing crypto asset operations, the firm continues to push forward in integrating Bitcoin into traditional finance (TradFi).

BlackRock also manages approximately $12 trillion in assets (AUM) and continues actively expanding its crypto market presence. It launched its iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) in the US in January 2024. The financial instrument has since grown into the largest US spot Bitcoin ETF, managing nearly $49 billion in assets.

BlackRock’s IBIT AUM
BlackRock’s IBIT AUM. Source: SoSoValue

Moreover, the surge in institutional interest in Bitcoin ETFs has been remarkable. In just one year, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $95 billion in investments, SoSoValue data shows. This highlights the increasing demand for regulated Bitcoin investment vehicles.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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What It Means for Bitcoin

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An expert has cautioned that the reverse yen carry trade is currently unfolding, albeit at a slower and more controlled pace.

This could have significant implications not only for traditional financial markets but also for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC).

Why Investors Should Pay Attention to the Yen Carry Trade?

For context, the yen carry trade is a strategy in which investors borrow yen at low interest rates and invest the funds in higher-yielding assets, such as the US dollar or technology stocks. The goal is to profit from the difference in interest rates.

Nonetheless, this strategy’s risk arises from currency fluctuations. If the yen appreciates, investors converting the investment back to yen to repay the loan may see reduced or eliminated profits.

According to Michael A. Gayed, this scenario appears to be materializing now. 

“The problem today is that those borrowing costs are starting to get more expensive. Traders who were able to access virtually free capital for years are now finding themselves sitting on costly margin positions that they’re potentially being forced to unwind,” he said.

In his recent report, Gayed explained that rising borrowing costs compel traders to offload dollar-denominated assets. This, in turn, heightens market volatility and depresses the prices of risk assets.

yen carry trade Dollar to Yen Exchange Rate
Dollar to Yen Exchange Rate. Source: The Lead-Lag Report

Notably, this happened last year as well. Gayed pointed out that in August 2024, the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates twice sparked a significant rally in the yen. Yet, at the same time, the S&P 500 saw an approximate 10% correction.

He added that the subsequent rebound alleviated investor concerns. Nevertheless, he believes the real issue is that the situation was never fully resolved. 

“Big carry trade unwinds don’t just last a couple of weeks, and conditions are suddenly normalized,” Gayed stressed.

He added that the current market conditions resemble a similar situation. Notably, the Japanese 10-year yield has surged to 1.56%, the highest since 2008. As these yields climb, the yen strengthens, and the carry trade dynamics begin to shift. 

“The 10-year yield continues to climb higher and close the interest rate differential on comparable 10-year US Treasury yields. That’s going to continue fueling strength in the yen that may continue into the later stages of 2025. And as long as the yen continues to strengthen, whether it’s quickly and slowly, that’s going to keep unwinding any outstanding carry trade that’s still out there. And it’s probably a lot,” he stated.

Moreover, Gayed suggested that the Bank of Japan will likely continue raising rates. Meanwhile, the Fed might possibly lower them in the coming months, further solidifying his outlook.

He also focused on the correlation between the S&P 500 and the yen. Gayed noted that the yen’s rise preceded the recent S&P 500 pullback by several weeks. 

The correction could also be linked to an anticipated US growth slowdown and potential tariffs. Yet, he emphasized that the reverse carry trade is particularly risky due to its potential to escalate quickly, especially in the current macroeconomic climate.

“The market is plenty capable of correcting on its own, given the fears associated with tariffs and slowing economic growth. If you add people being forced to sell their US equity holdings in order to close out their short yen positions on top of that, it’s easy to see how a bad situation quickly becomes worse. And it’s already happening. Japan is still the real risk,” he claimed.

Now, the question is, why will this impact Bitcoin? Given its close correlation with the S&P 500, a correction in the latter could spell trouble for BTC. Analyst Lark Davis pointed out that Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have been closely linked since 2023.

Bitcoin and S&P 500 correlation
Bitcoin and S&P 500 correlation. Source: X/LarkDavis

“So as we’re trying to determine where Bitcoin goes from here, the unfortunate truth is that it all probably depends on what happens to the major stock indices,” he noted 

Davis also advised crypto investors to monitor the broader economy, the stock market, and the M2 money supply, both in the US and globally.

For now, the largest cryptocurrency continues to navigate volatility ahead of President Trump’s tariff announcement. In fact, BeInCrypto reported that spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded outflows for three consecutive days.

Bitcoin Price Performance
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

On the price front, Bitcoin has dipped 3.1% over the past week. At press time, the coin was trading at $85,042, representing small gains of 0.8% over the past day.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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