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Bitcoin STH Realized Losses Far From 2021 Levels — Is The Bull Run Still On?

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The price of Bitcoin has been stuck within the $81,000 to $86,000 consolidation range over the past week, showing a high level of indecisiveness between the bulls and bears. While most on-chain indicators are painting a bearish image for the premier cryptocurrency, the latest piece of data suggests that the bull run might not be over just yet.

BTC Investors Not Yet In Full Panic Mode: Blockchain Firm

In a new post on the X platform, blockchain analytics firm Glassnode revealed that a specific class of Bitcoin holders known as the “short-term holders” (STH) are facing increasing market pressure. This on-chain observation is based on the value of unrealized losses of this investor cohort.

For clarity, an unrealized loss refers to one that is still on paper, as the investor is still holding on to and selling an asset (with a declining value). A loss only becomes “real” or “realized” when the holder sells the asset at a value lower than the purchase price.

According to Glassnode, the unrealized losses of Bitcoin investors have been climbing in recent weeks, specifically pushing the short-term holders toward a significant +2σ threshold. The STH Relative Unrealized Loss metric hitting the extreme +2σ threshold has been associated with increased selling pressure in the past.

However, Glassnode noted that the size of the STH losses still falls within the range typically observed in a bull market. Specifically, the magnitude of these losses pales in comparison to the market-wide sell-off witnessed in 2021, suggesting that the bull cycle might not be done yet.

Bitcoin

Source: @glassnode on X

To further illustrate this, Glassnode revealed that the rolling 30-day realized loss for Bitcoin’s short-term holders has now surpassed $7 billion, representing the largest sustained loss event in the current cycle. Despite the significance of this figure, it is still far less severe than the capitulation events seen at the start of past bear markets.

For instance, Bitcoin’s realized losses rose to as high as $19.8 billion and $20.7 billion during the major price corrections in May 2021 and 2022, respectively. Considering that the realized losses are still well below past capitulation events, there is a chance that the market has not yet reached a full-scale panic mode.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin stands at around $84,300, reflecting a 0.3% increase in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the flagship cryptocurrency is down by merely 0.6% in the past seven days, emphasizing the choppy state of the market.

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The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

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Mt. Gox’s $1 Billion Bitcoin Transfer: Is Liquidation Coming?

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The defunct cryptocurrency exchange Mt. Gox has executed another massive Bitcoin (BTC) transfer, moving $1 billion in BTC.

The transfer comes as the exchange’s creditor payouts approach, with the deadline set for October 2025.

Mt. Gox Shifts 11,501 BTC in Massive Transfer

According to blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence, Mt. Gox transferred a total of 11,501 Bitcoins to two wallets. A change wallet (address: 1DcoA) received 10,608 BTC worth $929 million. In addition, Mt. Gox’s hot wallet (address: 1Jbez) received 893 BTC worth $78 million.

Mt Gox Bitcoin payout
Mt. Gox Bitcoin Transfers. Source: X/Arkham

This move follows two significant transactions earlier this month. On March 6, the exchange transferred 12,000 BTC worth $1 billion at the time. Less than a week later, it made another 11,834 BTC transfer valued at $910 million.

In the latter instance, 332 BTC worth over $25 million was deposited into the Bitstamp exchange, hinting at potential liquidation activity. Thus, SpotOnChain suggested that the 893 BTC sent to the hot wallet could soon be on the move again, too.

After the latest transfer, Mt. Gox still holds 35,583 BTC worth over $3 billion. The latest actions may signal preparations as the exchange moves to repay creditors who lost funds in its infamous hack over a decade ago.

An approaching repayment deadline adds urgency to the situation. Last October, the trustee overseeing Mt. Gox’s assets extended the cutoff for creditor repayments by a year, setting a new date of October 31, 2025. 

“Many rehabilitation creditors still have not received their Repayments because they have not completed the necessary procedures for receiving Repayments. Additionally, a considerable number of rehabilitation creditors have not received their Repayments due to various reasons, such as issues arising during the Repayments process,” the notice read.

Meanwhile, the transfer had minimal impact on Bitcoin’s price. According to BeInCrypto data, BTC was only down 0.19% over the past day. At the time of writing, it traded at 86,756.

mt gox bitcoin payout
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

Notably, the coin has been gradually recovering from recent losses. BeInCrypto’s analysis indicates Bitcoin is approaching a breakout from a descending wedge pattern. If confirmed, this could set the stage for further gains, potentially reaching up to $95,000.

Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, has also shared a bullish outlook for Bitcoin.

“The price is more likely to hi $110k than $76.5k next. If we hit $110k, then it’s yachtzee time and we ain’t looking back until $250k,” he wrote on X.

His reasoning is based on the expectation that the US Federal Reserve will shift from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE), which would increase liquidity. Hayes also suggested that tariffs and their inflationary effect won’t have a lasting impact on the economy. Therefore, this would not hinder Bitcoin’s potential rise.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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What Does Trump’s Liberation Day Tariff Mean for Crypto Prices?

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President Trump plans to announce a new round of reciprocal tariffs on April 2. This will be aimed at reducing the $1.2 trillion trade deficit for the US. He calls it “Liberation Day” for the US economy. 

As Trump’s earlier tariffs significantly impacted the crypto market and triggered liquidations, his April 2 decision might also have notable implications for the market.

What’s New with Trump’s Liberation Day Tariff Plans? 

Trump may delay some of the most aggressive sector-specific tariffs. This might include industries like those in autos, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals.

Instead of blanket sector tariffs, the US might focus only on countries with the largest trade surpluses and the highest barriers to US goods. These are informally referred to as the “Dirty 15”—a group of 10 to 15 countries.

However, the decision is still not final. Trump could still change course, as he’s done in past announcements. 

“I may give a lot of countries breaks, but it’s reciprocal, but we might be even nicer than that. You know we’ve been very nice to a lot of countries for a long time. But I call it liberation day. April 2nd is liberation day,” the US president announced

Delaying or narrowing the scope of tariffs could ease some pressure on both the stock and crypto markets. 

As we’ve seen recently, when tariffs seem aggressive, markets often dip. When they seem more measured or delayed, prices often stabilize or rebound.

bitcoin price chart
Bitcoin Price Bounces Back Above $88,000 After Trump’s Liberation Day Announcement. Source: TradingView

Possible Scenarios for the Crypto Market Under Trump’s Tariff Plans

The April 2 tariff announcement could impact the crypto market in a few key ways, depending on how aggressive or targeted the final policy is. Here’s a breakdown of how and why it might move crypto prices.

If Tariffs Are Aggressive (Broad, High Duties)

  • Risk sentiment drops: Equity and bond markets would likely react negatively to aggressive tariffs, especially on autos, chips, or pharma. That tends to spill over into crypto, which investors still treat as a risk-on asset class.
  • Bitcoin and Ethereum could dip, as traders hedge against slower global growth and increased inflation risk.
  • Capital flight into USD or cash could trigger short-term outflows from speculative assets like altcoins.

For instance, when Trump reaffirmed steep tariffs in February, Bitcoin dropped below $90,000 amid broader market jitters. The same pattern could repeat.

If Tariffs Are Narrowed (Delays or Selective Targeting)

  • Market relief rally: If Trump’s administration confirms they’ll delay auto/chip/pharma tariffs and only target a few countries with high trade barriers, investor anxiety may ease.
  • That could fuel a short-term recovery in crypto prices, particularly if equity markets also rebound.
  • Increased clarity reduces volatility, which markets—including crypto—tend to reward.

For instance, when Trump hinted at flexibility earlier this month, Bitcoin rebounded to around $88,000. Narrower tariffs could spark a similar uptick.

Overall, the crypto market has been highly sensitive to macroeconomic signals lately. Tariffs drive fears of slower global trade and higher inflation.

All of these affect investor risk appetite. Even though crypto isn’t directly tied to trade flows, it’s deeply entwined with broader liquidity conditions and investor sentiment.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Holdings Exceed 500,000 BTC

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Michael Saylor announced that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) just purchased $584 million worth of Bitcoin, bringing its total holdings to over 500,000 BTC. Bitcoin is up this morning, and MicroStrategy’s purchase helps build market confidence.

However, the firm can only continue these acquisitions through sizable debt obligations. It seems unlikely that Strategy could ever sell off these assets without risking market confidence.

Strategy’s Bitcoin Buys Grow Again

Strategy (formerly Microstrategy) has been on a wild trajectory in the last few weeks. It has been one of the world’s largest Bitcoin holders for months, but the company’s purchase sizes have fluctuated wildly in the last few weeks.

Today, however, Michael Saylor announced that Strategy purchased a huge amount of Bitcoin:

“Strategy has acquired 6,911 BTC for ~$584.1 million at ~$84,529 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 7.7% YTD 2025. As of 3/23/2025, Strategy holds 506,137 BTC acquired for ~$33.7 billion at ~$66,608 per bitcoin,” Saylor claimed via social media.

The price of Bitcoin is very uncertain right now, and this has left an outsized impact on Strategy. Last month, the firm began offering STRK, a new perpetual security, to fund massive BTC acquisitions.

Shortly before today’s purchase, he upsized his latest stock offering by over $200 million.

This has reinvigorated the firm’s purchasing strategy but also left it with other serious problems. In essence, Strategy will never be able to sell its Bitcoin without seriously damaging the market.

The company has funded these purchases with massive debt obligations, but it has negative cash inflows. Saylor’s routine acquisitions keep market confidence high, but the community watches carefully for any signs of diminished activity.

Enthusiasts carefully watch for smaller purchases, and they would certainly notice a sale of any size.

That is to say, what happens if Strategy’s unsecured debt goes down if the price of Bitcoin goes down? The community would take a forced liquidation as a very bearish sign.

The company’s tax obligations are another possible source of trouble. For now, at least, the price of Bitcoin is on the mend.

bitcoin weekly price chart
Bitcoin Weekly Price Chart. Source: BeInCrypto

After this acquisition, MicroStrategy holds more than 500,000 Bitcoins. As the following chart shows, the company’s BTC purchase activity significantly intensified since late 2024, even though the asset’s price reached an all-time high during that period.

microstrategy bitcoin holdings
MicroStrategy Bitcoin Holdings Over Time. Source: Bitcoin Treasuries

It’s evident that Saylor will serve as an important guarantor of Bitcoin’s confidence. However, if market conditions spin out of control, Strategy’s massive debt could cause some serious trouble.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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