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Bitcoin Forms Bullish On-Chain Signal That Led To 200% Price Rally Last Time

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According to the latest on-chain observation, the Bitcoin traders’ realized losses have reached a level that has proven critical to the coin’s movement multiple times in recent years. This begs the question — is the Bitcoin price bottoming out?

Traders’ Realized Losses Below -12 Again — What Happened Last Time?

In a recent post on the X platform, prominent crypto analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that the amount of losses being realized by Bitcoin traders has been increasing in recent weeks. This on-chain revelation is based on the CryptoQuant Profit/Loss Margin metric, which aggregates profits and losses from all Bitcoin transactions.

The Profit/Loss Margin basically assesses the overall profitability of investors of a particular cryptocurrency (Bitcoin, in this scenario). When the metric’s value is positive, it implies that more BTC is being sold at a profit. A negative Profit/Loss Margin, on the other hand, indicates that more Bitcoin is being sold at a loss.

According to data from CryptoQuant, the Profit/Loss Margin is currently beneath the -12 mark, meaning that traders are realizing more losses than gains in the market at the moment. Historically, this level is more significant, considering that the metric has been below the -12 mark in the past cycles.

Interestingly, the recent times in which the Profit/Loss Margin has fallen below -12 has been followed by periods of significant bullish price action. As shown in the chart and highlighted by Martinez, the last two times the metric fell beneath this level were marked by 104% and 193% price rallies, respectively.

Bitcoin

Source: Ali_charts/X

If this historical pattern is anything to go by, then there is a likelihood that the price of Bitcoin might experience notable bullish activity in the near future. Moreover, observation of significant losses in the market can suggest the bottom of a bearish cycle and the start of a more positive phase.

Bitcoin Price To Surge? Here Are Important Levels To Watch

If the historical pattern does hold true and the Bitcoin price goes on a rally, there are a couple of price zones to watch out for. According to Martinez, the premier cryptocurrency has major resistance levels around the $61,340 and $64,620 zones.

This revelation is based on the cost basis of Bitcoin investors and the distribution of the BTC supply across various price ranges. The size of the dots in the chart below reflects the strength of the resistance and support and the amount of BTC purchased at each price zone.

As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin stands around $59,467, reflecting a 2.7% increase in the last 24 hours. According to CoinGecko data, the flagship cryptocurrency is up by 2% in the past week.

Bitcoin

The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView





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Japanese Company Unveils Plans To Buy Crypto

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Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Enish, a Japanese game developer, plans to buy Bitcoin worth 100 million yen. The company announced this move as part of its growing work with blockchain technology, according to recent reports. This purchase comes at a time when Bitcoin was trading at $81,800, based on CoinGecko data.

Why Enish Is Buying Bitcoin Now

The gaming company’s interest in Bitcoin stems from its work on blockchain games. Enish believes owning Bitcoin will help them better understand the technology behind it. Their game “De Lithe Last Metsoires” already uses blockchain features.

Bitcoin stands as the most well-known cryptocurrency in the market. By owning it, Enish hopes to gain new insights for their technical teams. The company thinks this knowledge will improve how they make games and run their business.

Notice regarding the procurement of Bitcoin. Source: Enish

How And When The Purchase Will Happen

Enish has set clear dates for buying Bitcoin. They plan to make their purchase between April 1 and April 4, 2025. The company will spend 100 million yen through normal market buys on Japanese cryptocurrency exchanges.

This action also aligns with Enish’s asset management strategy. They are looking to diversify their holdings while setting themselves up for potential profits if Bitcoin’s value increases further. The company chose Bitcoin because it’s simple to purchase and sell, and has a big, stable market.

Other Companies Joining The Bitcoin Trend

Enish isn’t alone in buying Bitcoin. Data from CryptoQuant shows public companies added 91,780 Bitcoin to their holdings during the first quarter of 2025.

BTC is now trading at $82,260. Chart: TradingView

Tether added nearly 9,000 Bitcoin to its accounts, bringing its total to 92,640 Bitcoin. MicroStrategy (now Strategy), known for its heavy Bitcoin investments, bought another 81,780 Bitcoin. This latest purchase cost the company over $8 billion.

Smaller Players Also Making Bitcoin Moves

More recently, several smaller companies have purchased Bitcoin. Looking more closely at some of these purchases: The Blockchain Company bought 600 Bitcoin. Semler Scientific bought 1,100. Metaplanet also acquired 2,280 Bitcoin in a bigger purchase.

But some companies are raising money to purchase even more. Marathon Digital is raising funds by selling stocks to invest in Bitcoin. In November, GameStop submitted a $1.3 billion offering to initiate its own Bitcoin strategy.

The trend demonstrates increasing acceptance of cryptocurrency among businesses, with more companies diversifying into Bitcoin—often for the same reasons as Enish: blockchain adoption, digital currency growth, and future holdings.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

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Why Are Retail Investors Turning to XRP Over Bitcoin?

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Retail investors are showing a growing preference for XRP (XRP) over Bitcoin (BTC), according to recent on-chain data from Glassnode. The data highlights a dramatic 490% surge in XRP’s quarterly average of daily active addresses. In comparison, Bitcoin only saw a modest 10% increase since the 2022 cycle low. 

This sharp contrast suggests that speculative retail demand is fueling XRP’s resurgence. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s rally remains predominantly institutional-led.

How Are Retail Investors Impacting XRP’s Growth Compared to Bitcoin?

In their latest newsletter, Glassnode highlighted the differing paths of these two major cryptocurrencies. Despite both assets achieving similar price gains—roughly 5x to 6x from their 2022 cycle lows—their trajectories reveal distinct investor behaviors.

“Since the 2022 cycle low, the quarterly average of daily active addresses for XRP has jumped by +490%, compared to just 10% for Bitcoin. This stark contrast suggests that retail enthusiasm has been attracted by XRP, thus providing a mirror for speculative appetite in the crypto space,” the newsletter read.

XRP BITCOIN ACTIVE ADDRESSES
XRP vs. Bitcoin Active Addresses Growth. Source: Glassnode

According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s growth has been steady. Meanwhile, the launch of spot ETFs or the US elections triggered a period of significant upward movement. In fact, Bitcoin hit an all-time high (ATH) just before President Trump’s inauguration.

Contrarily, Glassnode noted that XRP’s rally has been characterized by a sudden breakout from December 2024, driven by retail speculation.

“During this recent surge, XRP’s realized cap nearly doubled from $30.1 billion to $64.2 billion, reflecting a substantial inflow of capital,” Glassnode added.

Nevertheless, the surge also raises some cautionary signals, as it appears to be driven more by recent investments than by long-term, sustained demand. Glassnode observed a rapid concentration of wealth among new investors, with those entering the market in the past six months accounting for nearly half—around $30 billion—of this surge.

XRP Realized Cap Dominated by Newer Addresses
XRP Realized Cap Dominated by Newer Addresses. Source: Glassnode

Moreover, the share of XRP’s realized cap held by addresses younger than six months rose from 23% to 62.8% in a short period. Further insights from Google Trends data revealed that interest in XRP is predominantly concentrated in Europe and the United States, with significantly less search activity in Asia and Africa. 

This geographic disparity suggested that XRP’s retail-driven surge may be tied to specific market dynamics in Western regions, potentially influenced by regulatory clarity or community-driven hype.

“When viewed together with the heavy retail participation, this sharp uplift in new holders raises caution signs, where many investors are likely to be vulnerable to downside volatility, given their now elevated cost basis,” Glassnode remarked.

While XRP’s retail appeal is evident, the sustainability of its rally remains uncertain. Glassnode’s report indicates that the capital inflow has slowed since late February 2025, hinting at a cooling of retail speculation. 

Moreover, the Realized Loss/Profit Ratio has been steadily decreasing since January 2025. This suggested that investors are seeing fewer profits and facing larger losses.

“Given the retail-dominated inflows and largely concentrated wealth in relatively new hands, this alludes to a condition where retail investor confidence in XRP may be slipping, and this may also be extended across the broader market,” the newsletter highlighted.

Therefore, Glassnode cautioned that the XRP demand may have already peaked. The firm recommended exercising caution until more definitive signs of recovery appear.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Why Recency Bias Is Amplifying Fear Around Bitcoin’s Price

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The Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped to 25 yesterday, signaling “Extreme Fear” in the cryptocurrency market. Yet, an analyst suggests that the current panic might be exaggerated, largely driven by recency bias.

This comes as Bitcoin is navigating market volatility triggered by broader macroeconomic conditions. The leading cryptocurrency has fallen 11.4% year to date, reflecting the wider sentiment of fear and uncertainty.

Is the Recency Bias Inflating Fear Around Bitcoin’s Price?

In the latest X (formerly Twitter) post, analyst Lark Davis highlighted an interesting trend in the Crypto Fear and Greed Index. This sentiment gauge measures market emotions from 0 (Extreme Fear) to 100 (Extreme Greed). 

On April 3, it plummeted to a low of 25, indicating heightened anxiety among investors, even though Bitcoin was trading around $80,000. In fact, the latest value of 28 also indicated substantial fear among market participants.

Crypto Fear and Greed Index
Crypto Fear and Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me

Nonetheless, according to Davis, the sentiment was out of place, given Bitcoin’s price performance. He noted that the index’s decline contrasted with market conditions six months prior. Despite Bitcoin trading at $65,000, the index showed a neutral reading then.

“This is what’s called “recency bias,” and you can leverage it,” he wrote.

For context, recency bias refers to the tendency of investors or traders to give more weight to recent events or information when making decisions while disregarding longer-term trends or data. This psychological bias often leads to overreaction to short-term market movements, such as a sudden price spike or a crash.

“So that’s why we’re seeing higher fear readings at today’s $80,000, than yesterday’s $65,000,” David remarked.

He suggested that the fear seen in the market is not entirely justified and that reactions to short-term fluctuations are often more extreme than necessary.

This coincides with Bitcoin continuing to see fluctuations amid President Trump’s tariff plans and fears of a potential recession. While it remains relatively steady compared to traditional markets, the decline in Bitcoin’s value has still raised doubts about its stability and long-term potential.

Notably, Michael Saylor, chairman of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), highlighted that short-term volatility doesn’t reflect Bitcoin’s long-term potential.

“Bitcoin is most volatile because it is most useful,” he said.

Saylor explained that Bitcoin’s volatility is largely due to its liquidity and 24/7 availability, Which means it is more susceptible to rapid sell-offs during market panics. However, Saylor reiterated that while Bitcoin behaves like a risk asset in the short term, its long-term value is unaffected by these fluctuations, reinforcing its role as a store of value.

Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, provided another perspective on the ongoing market conditions. 

“Some of y’all are running scurred, but I love tariffs,” Hayes stated.

According to Hayes, global economic imbalances will eventually be corrected. While short-term market pain is inevitable, Hayes predicts that the solution will likely involve printing more money, which he views as beneficial for Bitcoin.

“The $ is weakening alongside foreigners selling US tech stocks and bringing money home. This is good for BTC and gold over medium term,” he forecasted.

His comments align with BeInCrypto’s recent report on the inverse correlation between the US Dollar Index (DXY) and BTC. Thus, a decline in the former could benefit the latter. 

Bitcoin Price Performance
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

For now, Bitcoin continues to see modest losses. Over the past week, it has declined by 4.5%. Meanwhile, the coin has shed 1.0% of its value over the past day. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $82,855.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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