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Bitcoin Faces 25% Correction Risk Amid Global Liquidity Tightening

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Bitcoin (BTC) price action continues to come under focus as analysts consider its correlation with the global M2 money supply.

A notable projection suggests the pioneer cryptocurrency may be at the cusp of a 20–25% correction, aligning with a recent contraction in M2 liquidity.

Why Bitcoin May Be Due for a 25% Correction

Bitcoin custody firm Theya’s head of growth, Joe Consorti, has highlighted Bitcoin’s close tracking of the global M2 with an approximately 70-day lag since September 2023. In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Consorti warned of a potential BTC pullback by 25% as it continues to track the global M2,

“I don’t want to alarm anyone, but if this trend continues, Bitcoin could experience a 20-25% correction,” Consorti said.

His analysis sets M2 data 70 days forward compared to Bitcoin’s price, revealing a worrying trajectory as global liquidity tightens. Consorti’s observations come amid a rare dislocation from the M2 trend, which historically aligns with Bitcoin prices.

Bitcoin to Global M2 correlation
Bitcoin (orange) correlation to Global M2 (white). Source: X/Twitter

He attributes past divergences, such as during the 2022 FTX collapse, to market-specific events. In hindsight, on September 30, Consorti predicted Bitcoin could hit $90,000 by year-end if it continued mirroring M2 trends. That forecast played out accurately during BTC’s recent rally, bolstering his credibility.

Another proponent of this correlation, user Joseph Scioscia, reiterated that Bitcoin acts as a reliable proxy for M2 money supply trends. He advised investors to adopt a long-term dollar-cost-averaging (DCA) strategy, citing BTC’s historical resilience.

“Bitcoin is the best proxy for M2 money supply. The trend in M2 reveals the potential direction in BTC, especially with Bitcoin’s approximate 70-day lag behind M2. DCA in Bitcoin and adopt a long-term strategy,” Scioscia stated.

However, skepticism remains. An X user known as Spicez criticized the focus on short-term data. They argue that a broader five-year chart would offer more insight into Bitcoin’s behavior during election cycles and post-halving periods.

“It would be nice to see this chart for the last 5 years. It would give us an indication of BTC’s behavior towards M2 during the election cycle and how it behaved after the last halving. This 2-year chart doesn’t tell us much at all,” Spicez challenged.

The global M2 supply measures the total liquidity in the economy, including checking accounts, savings accounts, and other liquid assets that can be quickly converted into cash. It has been a key driver for Bitcoin’s price movements.

Risk assets, including Bitcoin, typically correlate with rising liquidity. The relationship between Bitcoin’s price and M2 expansion reflects broader market sentiment and economic conditions.

A higher M2 expansion indicates a loose monetary policy and an increased money supply, which often boosts risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Historically, increases in M2 correspond with bullish trends for Bitcoin as liquidity flows into risk assets. Conversely, declines often signal impending corrections.

In a recent analysis, BeInCrypto echoed this link, suggesting that global liquidity could help Bitcoin reach $100,000. As reported, factors like the 2024 Bitcoin halving and broader macroeconomic recoveries often act as tailwinds for BTC’s price.

The rising interest in Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds), particularly from institutions like BlackRock, could counteract M2-related pressures. Structural buying from ETFs, coupled with corporate acquisitions, may provide a cushion against liquidity-driven sell-offs.

“It [Bitcoin] could buck this 2-month bout of M2 deflation thanks to structural ETF inflows + corporate buying pressure,” Consorti added.

While Bitcoin’s price faces potential headwinds from shrinking global liquidity, the market remains divided on its next move. Structural inflows and long-term adoption strategies may temper any downside. However, traders should brace for volatility as macroeconomic factors play out this week.

BTC Price Performance
BTC Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $94,395. BeInCrypto data shows it has been down 3.37% since the Tuesday session opened.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Institutional Risk Aversion Drives $218 Million Bitcoin ETF Outflows

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Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds) continue to record negative flows this week as President Trump’s Liberation Day countdown continues.

Sentiment is cautious across crypto markets, with traders and investors adopting a wait-and-see approach.

Bitcoin ETF See Outflows Amid Investor Caution

Data on Farside Investors shows two consecutive days of net outflows for Bitcoin ETFs since Monday. Financial instruments from Bitwise (BITB), Ark Invest (ARKB), and WisdomTree (BTCW) were in the frontline for Monday’s $60.6 million outflows, with only BlackRock’s IBIT seeing positive flows.

Meanwhile, Tuesday saw even more outflows, approaching $158 million, with Bitwise and Ark Invest leading the charge. Then, on April 1, BlackRock’s IBIT recorded zero flows. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows of $3.6 million, data on Farside shows. This suggests a cautious sentiment among institutional investors.

“The Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $157.8 million outflow yesterday. The Spot Ethereum ETFs saw a $3.6 million outflow. Institutions are reducing risk ahead of today’s tariff announcement,” analyst Crypto Rover noted.

Bitcoin ETF flows this week
Bitcoin ETF flows. Source: Farside Investors

Indeed, sentiment suggests traders are exercising caution, choosing to remain in “wait-and-see” mode. The caution comes ahead of Trump’s Liberation Day announcement, which is due later in the day on April 2.

With POTUS poised to unveil sweeping new tariffs, traders and investors across financial playing fields wait to see the scope of an onslaught that could spark a global trade war. Specifically, there is generally very little information about the tariffs’ specifics, which creates uncertainty regarding their impact on the broader economy and the crypto market. 

“The White House has not reached a firm decision on their tariff plan,” Bloomberg reported, citing people close to the matter.

Despite the lack of clarity, it is understandable why investors would be cautious considering the impact of previous tariff announcements on Bitcoin price. Meanwhile, analysts predict extreme market volatility, with potential stock and crypto crashes reaching 10-15% if Trump enforces broad tariffs.

“April 2nd is similar to election night. It is the biggest event of the year by an order of magnitude. 10x more important than any FOMC, which is a lot. And anything can happen,” economic analyst Alex Krüger predicted.

While sentiment is cautious in the crypto market, some investors are channeling toward gold as a safe haven. A Bank of America survey showed that 58% of fund managers prefer gold as a trade war safe haven, while only 3% back Bitcoin.

These findings came as institutional investors cite Bitcoin’s volatility and limited crisis-time liquidity as key barriers to its safe-haven adoption. Trade tensions have historically driven capital into safe-haven assets.

With Trump’s Liberation Day announcement looming, investors preemptively position themselves again, favoring gold over Bitcoin.

Nevertheless, despite Bitcoin’s struggle to capture institutional safe-haven flows, its long-term narrative remains intact. This is seen with Bitcoin supply on exchanges dropping to just 7.53%, the lowest since February 2018.

Bitcoin supply on exchanges
Bitcoin supply on exchanges. Source: Santiment

When an asset’s supply on exchanges reduces, investors are unwilling to sell, suggesting strong long-term holder confidence.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Bitcoin Could Serve as Inflation Hedge or Tech Stock, Say Experts

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Bitcoin may be a useful hedge against inflation in the near future as market uncertainty is growing. In the long run, it may also be useful to envision Bitcoin differently, treating it as a barometer for the tech industry.

Standard Chartered’s Head of Digital Assets Research and WeFi’s Head of Growth both shared exclusive comments with BeInCrypto regarding this topic.

Bitcoin: Inflation Hedge or Magnificent 7 Candidate?

Since the early days of the crypto space, investors have been using it as a hedge against inflation. However, it’s only recently that institutional investors are beginning to treat it the same way. According to Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, the trend of Bitcoin as an inflation hedge is increasing.

Still, this view may be too narrow in a few ways. Since the Bitcoin ETFs were first approved, BTC has been increasingly well-integrated with traditional finance. Kendrick noted this, saying that it is highly correlated with the NASDAQ in the short term. He claimed that Bitcoin might represent more than an inflation hedge, instead serving as an ersatz tech stock:

“BTC may be better viewed as a tech stock than as a hedge against TradFi issues. If we create a hypothetical index where we add BTC to the ‘Magnificent 7’ tech stocks, and remove Tesla, We find that our index, ‘Mag 7B’, has both higher returns and lower volatility than Mag 7,” Kendrick said in an exclusive interview with BeInCrypto.

This comparison is particularly apt for a few reasons. Tesla’s stock price is heavily entangled with Bitcoin, but it’s also been dropping due to political controversies. If Bitcoin were to replace Tesla’s position in the Magnificent 7, it may be a welcome addition. Of course, there is currently no mechanism to cleanly treat Bitcoin as a similar type of product. That could change.

However, Bitcoin’s role as an inflation hedge might be more immediately relevant. As Trump’s Liberation Day approaches, the crypto markets are becoming increasingly nervous about new US tariffs. As Agne Linge, Head of Growth at WeFi, said in an exclusive interview, these fears are impacting all risk-on assets, Bitcoin included.

“Crypto markets are closely tracking investor sentiment ahead of Trump’s…tariff announcement, with growing concerns over the potential economic impact. Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with traditional markets has amplified its exposure to broader macroeconomic trends, making it more sensitive to the risk-off sentiment that has affected equity markets,” Linge claimed.

She went on to state that US economic uncertainty was at record levels, surpassing both the 2008 financial crisis and the pandemic in April 2020. In these circumstances, recent inflation indicators are showing expected rates above expectations.

In such an environment, the crypto market is sure to take a hit, but traditional finance and the dollar is also in great jeopardy. All that is to say, Bitcoin is likely to be a solid inflation hedge in the near future. Even if it falls dramatically, it has worldwide appeal and the ability to rebound.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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$500 Trillion Bitcoin? Saylor’s Bold Prediction Shakes the Market!

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Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Michael Saylor, one of the most outspoken supporters of Bitcoin, is back and bolder than ever. In a recent statement, the former MicroStrategy CEO predicted that the alpha coin will potentially hit a $500 trillion market cap. Saylor’s bold prediction for the world’s top digital asset comes during the intensified push for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR). 

In his latest pro-crypto statement, Saylor argued that the digital asset will “demonetize gold”, then it will demonetize real estate, which he calculated as 10x more than gold. To summarize his argument, Saylor further states that Bitcoin will demonetize “all long-term store of value”.

Push For SBR Gains Ground

Saylor’s latest statement comes as Congress intensifies its efforts to build the country’s BTC holdings. United States President Donald Trump formalized the plans to build crypto holdings through an executive order to establish a strategic crypto reserve that will initially include $17 billion worth of BTC that the country currently controls.

According to the president, additional acquisitions of cryptocurrency are allowed, provided these are done through “budget-neutral” approaches. Senator Cynthia Lummis initially proposed in the Senate, through the Bitcoin Act, the plan to create a Bitcoin reserve. Under the proposal, the administration can purchase 1 million Bitcoin to complement the reserve.

Saylor Explains Crypto’s Role During Blockchain Summit

Saylor’s latest prediction on Bitcoin was made during his appearance at the DC Blockchain Summit. He was joined on stage by Jason Les, the CEO of Rito Platforms, and Lummis, the principal author of the Bitcoin Act.

BTC is now trading at $83,238. Chart: TradingView

During the program, Saylor was asked about America’s need for Bitcoin. Saylor answered with conviction, saying the rising importance of BTC is inevitable and will happen with the US’ participation. During his talk, he shared that Bitcoin, created by the enigmatic Satoshi Nakamoto, is unstoppable. 

Image: Gemini Imagen

Saylor added that the premier digital asset is the next stage in money’s evolution, and it’s currently absorbing value from traditional assets like currency reserves and real estate.

Saylor Predicts Top Coin Will Reach $500 Trillion In Market Cap

During his talk, Saylor predicted that BTC will eventually grow from $2 billion to $20 billion, which can hit $200 billion and beyond. Finally, he thinks the asset can achieve a $500 trillion market capitalization, reflecting more than 29,000% increase from its current market capitalization of $1.67 trillion.

Saylor’s recent bold prediction aligns with his firm conviction and support for the asset. He argues that Bitcoin’s unique features, its decentralized nature and fixed supply, make it a perfect hedge against economic uncertainties like inflation.

Featured image from Gemini Imagen, chart from TradingView

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.





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