5 US Economic Events With Crypto Market Implications This Week

Five key US economic indicators could influence Bitcoin (BTC) sentiment this week amid heightened bearish sentiment in the crypto market.

The influence of US economic events and policies on Bitcoin and crypto in general continues to grow. This makes the anticipated data points particularly important for traders and investors.

US Economic Data To Watch This Week

Amid the crypto black Monday woes, this week’s US economic data will be crucial for Bitcoin and altcoin markets.

March FOMC Minutes

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the March meeting are due on Wednesday. This US economic indicator will offer traders and investors a window into the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy direction.

These minutes detail discussions on interest rates, inflation, and economic growth, influencing market sentiment. If the tone is hawkish, suggesting tighter policy or fewer rate cuts, Bitcoin could face downward pressure as investors favor safer assets like bonds, bolstered by a stronger US dollar.

Conversely, a dovish outlook hinting at rate cuts could boost risk appetite, driving capital into crypto. This would come as cheaper borrowing encourages investment in high-growth assets.

Based on these, crypto traders will watch for clues about the Fed’s stance on inflation. This is more so considering recent data showed no significant re-acceleration.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell could reaffirm previous comments about resisting premature rate cuts, or new signals might emerge. Given Bitcoin’s sensitivity to liquidity, any unexpected pivot could spark volatility.

Traders and investors should brace for short-term price swings, particularly if the minutes deviate from market expectations priced in by the CME FedWatch.

JPMorgan is the first Wall Street bank to forecast a US recession following Trump’s tariffs. According to the bank, the FED might be forced to cut rates before the next meeting. Notably, the next FOMC meeting after the April 9 minutes will be May 6-7, 2025.

Despite JPMorgan’s fears and urges, the ongoing crypto market bloodbath notwithstanding, no emergency meetings are announced for April as per the Fed’s official calendar. Accordingly, the next likely date for any policy changes, like the rate cut JPMorgan mentioned, is May 6-7.

“The next FOMC meeting is on the first week of May, can investors wait? Can US people wait? How high is current inflation? Can we have an urgent rate cut meeting? Until China enters crypto, BTC still depends on US liquidity,” one user noted.

Initial Jobless Claims

Beyond the March FOMC minutes, the next US economic indicator for crypto traders to watch is the Initial Jobless Claims. Due every Thursday, this report provides crypto market participants with a real-time snapshot of US labor market health. This makes it a key driver of economic stability.

Measuring new unemployment filings, lower claims would signal a strong economy, while higher claims indicate weakness.

For crypto, a strong labor market (fewer claims) might dampen Bitcoin’s appeal as investors lean toward traditional equities. However, rising claims could fuel recession fears, prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts. Historically, this has been a boon for crypto, as lower rates make borrowing cheaper and increase liquidity.

Traders will, therefore, monitor whether claims exceed the previous week’s 219,000. Such an outcome would boost Bitcoin as a hedge against economic uncertainty.

Meanwhile, recent trends show claims have been declining. However, rising continuing claims suggest that job-finding challenges persist.

Crypto volatility could spike if the data surprises, especially alongside Thursday’s interplay, with the CPI release coming shortly afterward.

“US Core Inflation Rate and CPI (Thu10) and Initial Jobless Claims (Thu10) are top-tier market movers, likely impacting USD, bond yields, and Fed rate expectations amid tariff uncertainties,” one user noted.

US CPI

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will be released on Thursday, is another critical US economic indicator for crypto market participants to watch. The data measures inflation through changes in consumer goods and services prices.

A higher-than-expected CPI could signal persistent inflation, potentially leading the Fed to maintain or raise rates. This would strengthen the dollar and pressure crypto prices downward as risk assets lose appeal.

The previous CPI data showed inflation cooled to 2.8% in February. If March’s CPI exceeds the anticipated 2.6% annual rise, Bitcoin might dip as investors pivot to inflation-resistant assets.

Conversely, a lower CPI could reinforce expectations of rate cuts, boosting crypto as a store of value amid easing monetary policy.

Crypto traders will also focus on core CPI (excluding food and energy) for a clearer inflation trend, as it heavily influences Fed decisions.

Given Bitcoin’s April performance dropping below $75,000, this data could dictate its next move. Volatility is almost certain, so participants must be ready for market reactions, especially as FOMC minutes will still be fresh in mind.

US PPI

Friday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) tracks inflation at the wholesale level. This US economic indicator offers crypto market participants insight into production costs that could trickle down to consumers.

Rising PPI suggests higher input costs, like energy or hardware, which are crucial for crypto mining. This could squeeze miner profitability and reduce Bitcoin supply growth.

If March’s PPI climbs significantly above 3.3% year-over-year, it might signal brewing inflationary pressure. This could prompt a Fed tightening bias that could weigh crypto prices as liquidity tightens.

Conversely, a softer PPI might ease inflation fears, supporting a bullish crypto outlook if paired with dovish Fed signals on Wednesday.

Crypto investors should note PPI’s lead indicator status for CPI. A stark divergence from Thursday’s CPI could confuse markets and heighten volatility.

“Massive macro week ahead FOMC minutes, CPI, and PPI. A battleground for rate cut bets,” Deribit noted.

With Bitcoin sensitive to dollar strength, participants should watch how PPI shapes Fed expectations. A balanced reading might stabilize sentiment, but surprises could trigger sharp moves.

Consumer Sentiment

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index, released Friday, will reflect US consumers’ economic confidence. This is a vital signal for crypto market participants.

A high reading indicates optimism, potentially spurring spending and risk-taking, which could lift Bitcoin as investors seek growth assets. Strong sentiment might also reduce recession fears, indirectly supporting crypto by maintaining market liquidity.

However, a drop below expectations of 54.5 could hint at inflation or job worries, denting risk appetite. This could push funds toward safer havens, pressuring crypto prices. This index often embeds inflation expectations, such that Bitcoin’s hedge narrative could strengthen if consumers anticipate rising prices.

These events collectively shape the crypto market sentiment this week, intertwining monetary policy, economic health, and investor psychology.

Participants must stay agile and blend data insights with market reactions to develop informed strategies. They must also conduct their own research.