Regulation

Why A 25Bps Cut Is “Pretty Straightforward”

Published

3 weeks ago

November 1, 2024

Coin2049 Newsletter

Former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester recently discussed a potential Fed rate cut at the November FOMC meeting. She said that a 25 basis point (bps) cut seems pretty straightforward at this point and explained why.

A 25bps Fed Rate Cut Is “Pretty Straightforward”

Loretta Mester mentioned during a CNBC interview that a 25 basis point Fed rate cut seems pretty straightforward at this point, considering that inflation has come down quite a bit from its peak even though it is not yet at the US Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

She alluded to all the recent inflation data since the September FOMC meeting, which she claimed doesn’t change the base narrative that inflation has come down and the growing confidence that it will continue to trend downward.

The former Fed president also noted that the unemployment rate is moderating, and the job data shows that the labor market is healthy. As such, she remarked that the Fed should be trying to implement monetary easing policies as the US economy normalizes.

Mester’s comments come amid the release of the US job data, which showed that the non-farm payroll rose by 12,000 in October, lower than the expected 110,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%.

Commenting on this, the former Cleveland Fed president said that the lower-than-expected job figures were likely due to the hurricanes in the United States last month. She added that she is glad the unemployment rate remained unchanged as it showed that the US economy isn’t as weak as the non-farm payroll suggested.

Like Mester, traders seem confident that a 25bps Fed rate cut should be the Fed’s next step. FedWatch tool data shows there is a 99.8% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 bps at its November FOMC meeting.

The Significance Of The Fed’s Decision

A 25bps Fed rate cut is significant as it could be the catalyst for a Bitcoin price rise past its current all-time high (ATH) of $73,700. Bitcoin and the broader crypto market reacted positively in September following the 50 bps rate cut at the September FOMC meeting.

It is worth mentioning that a Fed Rate cut decision will come just two days after the November 5 US presidential elections. As such, the aftermath of the elections, coupled with a rate cut, is the perfect recipe for a BTC and crypto market rally.

Crypto stakeholders like BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes have suggested that the crypto community should focus even more on the Fed’s decision rather than the US election. Arthur Hayes claimed that the US election outcome won’t impact BTC. Instead, he remarked that money printing and increased US debt issuance could ultimately boost Bitcoin.

However, according to a CoinGape market analysis, the Bitcoin price could suffer an 8% to 13% correction should Kamala Harris win the election. Meanwhile, if Donald Trump wins, BTC could easily surge past its ATH and rise to as high as $80,000.