Regulation
Ripple Could Defeat the SEC If This Happens
Legal expert Fred Rispoli has stated that Ripple has a better chance of winning the US Securities and Exchange’s (SEC) appeal in their lawsuit if an unbiased panel is sitting on the case. However, he claimed that the Commission would likely have a 70% to 80% chance of winning if the Judges who sit on the case have a long history of agreeing with the government.
How Ripple Could Defeat The SEC
In an interview on the Thinking Crypto podcast, Rispoli mentioned that the odds would be 70% to 30% in favor of Ripple if the 2nd Circuit Court of Appeal Judges were unbiased. The lawyer noted that the “sad part” about the probabilities of who will win is that it hinges on who the three Judges that get assigned the case are.
CoinGape reported that the US SEC is appealing Judge Analisa Torres’s final judgment on August 7. However, the XRP community has continued questioning whether the appeal will only apply to the $125 million penalty or extend to Judge Torres’ ruling on the programmatic sales last year.
Fred Rispoli gave his opinion, stating that the SEC will likely appeal everything. He noted that the notice of appeal was about the summary judgment and not just the penalty ruling. As such, the Commission can appeal any of the rulings included in the summary judgment.
The legal expert believes that the Commission will focus on programmatic sales, which involves Judge Torres ruling that XRP isn’t a security in itself. He added that they will also seek a higher fine than the $125 million that Judge Torres awarded.
Fred Rispoli noted that the 2nd Circuit’s potential ruling on programmatic sales is most important for XRP holders and the broader crypto community. According to him, the SEC will move to cite the court’s ruling on its case against crypto firms like Binance, Coinbase, and Kraken if the court rules in the Commission’s favor on the programmatic sales.
How The SEC Could Lose It All
Fred Rispoli cited a scenario in which the 2nd Circuit could overturn Judge Torres’s rulings in favor of the SEC. He claimed that this would happen if Ripple got a really good panel. The lawyer also alluded to Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer (CLO) Stuart Alderoty’s comments that they intend to file a cross-appeal.
The legal expert remarked that it would be “foolish” if the crypto firm didn’t file a cross-appeal. He claimed that a cross-appeal would further solidify the company’s 70% chance of winning the appeal as the court will likely reach a “split the baby decision” if this happens. Rispoli explained that this means that the 2nd Circuit will decide to affirm all Judge Torres’ rulings rather than give a different opinion.
Meanwhile, the lawyer predicts the case will likely continue until at least January 2026. This aligns with the timeline for both parties to file their court processes. For instance, he stated that the SEC would likely not file its opening brief until December of this year. After that, he expects Ripple’s reply brief won’t come until March.
Therefore, the lawyer believes the crypto firm should push forward on the legislative front, considering how long the case could take. However, he noted that the good thing is that Judge Torres’ ruling on XRP not being a security remains the law of the land until regulatory clarity or a ruling is made in the appeal.
The Ripple SEC lawsuit negatively impacted the XRP price in the 2021 bull run as the Commission instituted the lawsuit in December 2020. However, crypto analyst Egrag Crypto predicted that the XRP Price will cross $5 despite the SEC appeal.
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
Regulation
US Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rate By 25 Basis Point
The US Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut following its November FOMC meeting. This development is undoubtedly significant, considering the impact it could have on the Bitcoin price and broader crypto market.
US Federal Reserve Announces 25 Bps Rate Cut
In a press release, the US Fed announced its decision to cut interest rates by 25 bps, just about two months after it cut them by 50 bps at its September FOMC meeting. This move from the US Central Bank provides a bullish outlook for the Bitcoin price, which is already hitting new highs.
Interstingly, similar to the US Federal Reserve’s decision, the Bank of England (BOE) announced a 25 bps rate cut earlier in the day. This decision from both central banks will likely open up a liquidity cycle, causing more money to flow into risk assets like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
The crypto community will look forward to US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech to see how dovish the Fed is. Positive remarks from him would suggest that the Fed could still cut interest rates at its December FOMC meeting.
In the press release, the US Federal Reserve stated that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. They remarked that since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. They added that inflation has progressed toward their 2% goal.
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
Regulation
Polymarket Faces French Ban After Massive Bets On US Election Results
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, is likely to be prohibited by France’s gambling regulator, the ANJ, after a huge amount of bets were placed on the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Since the global audience engaged in prediction platforms, Polymarket experienced a record jump, with $450 million expected to be distributed to users following the victory of Donald Trump.
This increase of betting volume and large stakes has become a matter of concern for the French regulator because the platform offers unlicensed gambling services.
$450 Million in Payouts Expected After U.S. Election Bets
Prediction markets, which are expected to increase their payout to election bettors to around $450m following Donald Trump’s projected win, are attracting increasing attention.
Although conventional polls pointed to a closer contest, prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi recorded a steep rise in Trump’s chances in the last few days, indicating a strong divergence with poll-based expectations.
Among the active users of Polymarket, a French trader called “Theo” made a $26 million bet on Trump’s win and won $49 million. This big bet made Polymarket popular, as the French authorities paid attention to the platform and its popularity among French residents, which led to concerns about the compliance of the platform with French gambling legislation.
France’s ANJ Considers Blocking Access to Polymarket
The ANJ has claimed that Polymarket is involved in gambling which is only allowed in France by licensed operators. According to local media, the regulator has the power to ban access to unlicensed gambling sites and is expected to restrict access to Polymarket soon.
An ANJ insider said: “Polymarket is just betting on something that is completely uncertain, which is exactly what gambling is.”
If put in place, the ban would prevent the usage of the application in France, despite the fact that users can still try to avoid the restriction by connecting to VPN. The ANJ could also try to influence media outlets and directories to stop advertising or linking to Polymarket and, thus, limit its audiences even more.
Regulatory Concerns Over Market Manipulation
The high level of activity on Polymarket has led to speculations that the platform may be used for market manipulation. Two blockchain analysis firms, Chaos Labs and Inca Digital, recently revealed that there was potential wash trading within Polymarket’s U.S. presidential betting market where the same assets are bought and sold to simply create a fake market. This type of trading is rather manipulative and can lead to the distortion of signals on the market and mislead other participants.
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission also has concerns about prediction markets and put forward a rule in May aiming at stricter regulation of such markets due to the potential for manipulation.
Although no final decision has been reached, regulatory actions could impact Polymarket’s ability to operate freely in other markets, including the U.S.
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
Regulation
FTX Co Founder Gary Wang Appeals For No Jail Time, Here’s Why
FTX co-founder Gary Wang has requested a federal judge not to send him to prison. He noted that he is testifying against the former business partner, Sam Bankman-Fried, someone he has known for a long time in a fraud case.
The lawyer for Wang submitted a sentencing memo in Manhattan federal court wherein he claimed that his client should not be incarcerated as he provided assistance to the prosecutors as well as his role in the scheme was comparatively less.
Wang, who pleaded guilty to fraud and conspiracy when FTX went bankrupt in 2022, is to receive his sentencing on the 20th of November.
FTX Co-Founder Gary Wang Appeals for No Jail Time
The defense counsel for FTX co-founder Gary Wang highlighted his client’s early cooperation with the federal prosecutors as one of the key reasons why the court should consider him for mercy. According to Graff, Wang was one of the first FTX executives to meet with the authorities and share information on the FTX and Alameda Research. Wang gave a testimony in the trial that led to the recent conviction of Bankman-Fried who was sentenced to 25 years in prison.
Speaking at the trial, Wang described how he was ordered to change the code of FTX in order to enable Alameda Research to use the assets of the company’s clients, which is one of the key points of Bankman-Fried’s fraud.
FTX co-founder’s lawyer noted that his involvement in the fraud was less than some of the other former executives, including Caroline Ellison, former CEO of Alameda Research, and Nishad Singh, FTX’s former head of engineering. Wang, his lawyer said, did not start or operate the scheme and was not personally involved in the provision of false information to the investors.
“Gary was not involved in the scheme at its inception, was never provided with details of the scheme, and, in contrast to Bankman-Fried, Ellison and Singh, never engaged in any affirmative action of deception,” Graff wrote.
Sentencing Comparisons to Other Executives
Wang’s attorney argued that a prison sentence would create an “unwarranted sentencing disparity” with Nishad Singh, who avoided jail time after pleading guilty and cooperating with the government. Singh, who faced potential decades-long sentences, was ultimately sentenced to time served and three years of supervised release.
Ellison, another major cooperator, received a two-year prison sentence. FTX co-founder Gary Wang contended that Wang’s level of involvement was even lower than Singh’s, supporting a non-custodial sentence for Wang as well.
Graff also noted Wang’s personal circumstances, stating that Wang is expecting the birth of his first child shortly after his sentencing date. Wang’s attorney suggested that allowing him to remain with his family would align with the court’s treatment of other cooperators in the case.
“Gary wants nothing more than to be a good husband and father and to continue his work to facilitate FTX victims’ recovery,” Graff wrote.
Separately, the U.S. government is working to reclaim approximately $13.25 million in political donations made by FTX executives, including Bankman-Fried and Singh. Judge Lewis Kaplan however granted the government additional time to negotiate the return of these funds, extending discussions with the PACs until January 15, 2025.
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
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