Arthur Hayes predicted a dramatic crash in Bitcoin’s value but claimed that it would rebound to a new all-time high by the end of the year.

The majority of his arguments were unrelated to today’s DeepSeek-related market turmoil, but he claimed that these events could serve as a catalyst.

Arthur Hayes Expects a Mini-Financial Crisis for Bitcoin

Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, has dramatically changed his short-term predictions for Bitcoin. Earlier this month, he claimed that the price of Bitcoin would peak in mid-March before facing a severe correction.

However, today, Hayes updated his prediction to claim that BTC was already on the precipice of this decline.

“Reversing the order of my tryptic essay series. I am calling for a $70,000 to $75,000 correction in BTC, a mini financial crisis, and a resumption of money printing that will send us to $250,000 by the end of the year,” Hayes claimed.

Hayes later posted an extensive breakdown of this projection on his personal blog. He noted many global economic factors.

Hayes’ short-term bearish prediction for Bitcoin is based on the deteriorating global fiat liquidity environment. This is being driven by rising US 10-year Treasury yields, a tightening Federal Reserve, and slowed money printing in major economies like the US, China, and Japan.

These factors have increased financial stress. In turn, it’s creating a negative environment for fiat-priced assets, including Bitcoin, which Hayes argues is highly sensitive to global liquidity conditions.

“Why do I believe in a 30% correction for Bitcoin? These types of pullbacks occur often throughout the bull market, given how volatile Bitcoin is. More importantly, the market exceeded the March 2024 all-time high right after Trump won re-election in early November 2024. Many others, including myself, have written extensively about how Trumpism heralds an acceleration of money printing in the US and how other nations would respond in kind with money printing programs of their own to boost their domestic economies,” Hayes wrote.

His initial predictions were unrelated to DeepSeek, the Chinese AI protocol that decimated the crypto market today. However, DeepSeek’s impact only increased his conviction.

Although BTC ETFs hit record volumes on Friday, long-term holders sold their assets in substantial quantities. Crypto-related firms like MicroStrategy also felt the sting of DeepSeek despite buying huge amounts of BTC.

For Hayes, however, this only enhanced pre-existing trends in Bitcoin.

Although President Trump has promised pro-crypto changes at many regulators, Hayes believes “the Fed will do what it can to frustrate the Trump agenda.” In short, he thinks personal vendettas will interfere with coherent policy.

Hayes also examined a few different nations’ economic policies and how they might impact Bitcoin. Ultimately, he remains confident that any doldrums will be temporary and only lead to greater gains.

For now, however, the price drops could prove quite painful.

Caroline Pham, Acting Chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), has announced plans to hold a series of public roundtable discussions to gather input on various market issues, including those related to crypto. 

The CFTC roundtables will engage with industry leaders, market participants, and public interest groups to discuss developing trends and innovations in market structure.

Roundtable Discussions on the Crypto Market

In a notice released by the CFTC today, Pham announced that the CFTC will organize discussions on issues including affiliated entities and conflicts of interest, prediction markets, and digital assets. 

The roundtables are intended to increase transparency and public engagement within the CFTC’s policymaking process.

“Innovation and new technology has created a renaissance in markets that presents new opportunities that are accessible to more people, as well as risks. The CFTC will get back to basics by hosting staff roundtables that will develop a robust administrative record with studies, data, expert reports, and public input. A holistic approach to evolving market trends will help to establish clear rules of the road and safeguards that will promote US economic growth and American competitiveness,” Pham said. 

These discussions will bring together industry leaders, market participants, market structure experts, and representatives from public interest groups. The goal is to engage in open and transparent dialogue on key market issues.

According to the notice, the CFTC will soon provide further details regarding the dates, times, and specific topics for these roundtable discussions.

Less than a week ago, CFTC commissioners elected Pham as the regulator’s newest acting chair following President Trump’s inauguration. Previously, Pham had served as CFTC commissioner since April 2022. 

Pham replaced former CFTC Chair Rostin Benham, who will remain at the CFTC until February 7. As confirmed by the Senate, she will continue to lead the CFTC until Trump nominates a permanent head of the regulator.

“Acting Chair Pham is pulling in the big dogs—industry leaders, groups, and other stakeholders—to dive into the messy stuff like conflicts of interest. It’s all about building clearer rules and keeping US competitiveness on point. These roundtables could totally change how crypto operates under the law, so keep your eyes peeled for updates,” Mario Nawfal wrote on X (formerly Twitter).

Pham has long supported friendly regulation. A year after joining the CFTC, she delivered a very pro-crypto speech to the Cato Institute. In it, she outlined that the CFTC should follow the same regulatory approach to the cryptocurrency market that it has applied to other emerging asset classes.

According to Pham, crypto regulation lacks clarity and proactive guardrails. She also discussed the need for “responsible innovation” and a “compliant” digital asset market.

The CFTC’s Recent Regulations in the Crypto Sector

In the US, regulations for digital assets are divided between two primary agencies: the CFTC and the SEC.

The CFTC’s jurisdiction primarily extends to crypto assets classified as commodities under US law. This includes cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. 

The commissioner’s regulatory authority specifically encompasses commodity derivatives, which include financial contracts derived from underlying commodities. Its responsibilities include crypto futures contracts and options, which are derivatives based on the price of cryptocurrencies.

Earlier this month, reports suggested that the regulator was reviewing Crypto.com’s sports betting futures. The contracts, tied to the Super Bowl, face scrutiny amid rising concerns about prediction markets.

The CFTC is conducting a 90-day review of these contracts. While the agency does not have the authority to halt trading immediately, it can ban these contracts upon completion of the review process.

On January 9, the CFTC reportedly issued a subpoena to Coinbase, the largest US-based crypto exchange. The regulator seeks information about the crypto-based prediction market platform Polymarket.

While users are not required to take immediate action, the exchange stated that certain user account data may be necessary to be shared with the regulatory agency.

Cardano (ADA) price has dropped 8% in the last 24 hours, bringing its market cap to approximately $32 billion. Over the past 7 days, ADA has fallen more than 13%, signaling mounting bearish pressure.

The recent death cross and rising ADX confirm a strengthening downtrend, with the price hovering between key support at $0.87 and resistance at $0.95. If bearish momentum continues, ADA risks further declines, but a recovery above $0.95 could spark a test of levels beyond $1.03.

ADA Downtrend Is Getting Stronger

Cardano ADX has risen sharply to 23.2, up from 10.5 yesterday, indicating that the market has transitioned from an almost nonexistent trend to a more defined one.

The ADX, or Average Directional Index, measures the strength of a trend on a scale of 0 to 100, with values below 20 indicating weak or no trend and values above 25 signaling a strong trend. With ADA ADX now approaching 25, the market is showing signs of increasing momentum.

This shift in ADA’s ADX suggests that the price has moved into a downtrend, as sellers appear to have gained control. The jump from 10.5 to 23.2 in a single day reflects a significant change in the market, likely amplifying bearish pressure. If this trend continues, ADA price could face further downside, as the strengthening trend confirms growing selling momentum.

Cardano Ichimoku Cloud Shows a Bearish Setup

ADA Ichimoku Cloud chart shows a bearish setup, with the price trading significantly below the cloud. This indicates strong downward momentum, as the bearish trend dominates.

The red cloud (Senkou Span A below Senkou Span B) ahead of the current price suggests continued resistance in the near term, reinforcing the possibility of further downside.

Additionally, the Tenkan-sen (blue line) and Kijun-sen (orange line) have crossed downward, a bearish signal confirming the strength of the current trend.

The price below both lines suggests ADA price is struggling to gain upward traction, and sellers remain in control. If the bearish momentum persists, ADA could face additional declines. However, reclaiming the Kijun-sen or breaking into the cloud could signal the start of a potential reversal.

ADA Price Prediction: Can Cardano Recover Levels Above $1 In January?

Cardano price is currently trading between resistance at $0.95 and support at $0.87, following the formation of a death cross yesterday. If the downtrend continues and $0.87 is breached, ADA could test $0.829 as its next support level.

A loss of this level may open the door to further downside, potentially dropping to $0.76, which represents a 14.6% decline from current levels.

Alternatively, if ADA price regains the bullish momentum seen two weeks ago, it could retest the $0.95 resistance. Breaking above this level could pave the way for a move toward $1.03, with additional targets at $1.11 and $1.16.