Sminston With, a crypto analyst, has predicted that Bitcoin’s (BTC) price could surpass $200,000. This forecast came on the same day that the Bitcoin price failed to hit the widely expected $70,000 mark. 

However, With suggests that the prediction might not come to pass this year or next. In this analysis, the platform reveals how the analyst arrived at this conclusion and whether Bitcoin has a chance of hitting this target.

Bitcoin Decay Model Suggests Higher Highs, Analyst Reveals

On Monday, October 21, With posted on X (formerly Twitter), saying that BTC could hit between $199,106 and $207,623. The analyst came to this conclusion after evaluating the Decay Channel model.

The decay model was designed to challenge previous prediction models, particularly the widely recognized Rainbow Chart and Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. Both of these earlier models have been influential in forecasting Bitcoin’s price movements. 

Still, the decay model presents an alternative perspective by incorporating factors that may account for diminishing returns and slowing growth as the asset matures, as shown below. Interestingly, this forecast is another analyst’s prediction for Bitcoin, which predicts that the coin could reach $200,000 in 2025.

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“Depending on the regression method used, linear or nonlinear, the upper bound of decay on January 1st, 2026, looks to be either $199,106 or $207,623. Even with this much decay, this is bullish!” With said.

However, on-chain data obtained by looking at Bitcoin’s Cycle Top Indicator shows that the coin might not go that high. Instead, the 350-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which spots the highest possible price of a cycle, reveals that BTC’s top could be around $114,256.

In a related development, Jurrien Timmer suggested that Bitcoin’s price might continue to trade sideways for an extended period. 

In his post, Timmer pointed out that Bitcoin’s adoption curve currently lags behind that of gold, making it difficult for BTC to experience rapid acceleration in the near term. This slower adoption could be a limiting factor in Bitcoin’s price growth despite its potential as a store of value.

BTC Price Prediction: Drop Below $63,000 First

According to the daily chart, Bitcoin’s price attempted to hit $70,000, and the wick of the last green candle reached $69,126.

However, as seen below, the coin could not break out of the rising parallel channel, which could have sent it higher. Due to this, BTC is currently trading below $67,000. A look at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that the reading has dropped.

The RSI measures momentum using the size and speed of price changes. When it increases, momentum is bullish. On the other hand, a decrease implies a rising bearish momentum, which seems to be the case with BTC currently.

Read more: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030

If sustained, Bitcoin’s price might drop to $62,995. On the flip side, if momentum becomes bullish again and buying pressure increases, BTC might climb to $69,400 and possibly surpass $73,000 in the short term, aligning with the analyst prediction for Bitcoin.

SUI price has grown by 27.82% in the last 30 days, driven by notable changes in its Total Value Locked (TVL). After a strong surge in both TVL and price, SUI appears to be entering a consolidation phase. This stabilization suggests a pause in the upward momentum, possibly indicating a period of market indecision.

The future direction could depend on whether SUI’s TVL sees renewed growth or remains stagnant, with a potential correction in play.

SUI TVL: Consolidation After a Strong Surge

SUI’s Total Value Locked (TVL) experienced an impressive surge, rising from $308 million on August 4 to $1.096 billion by October 14. This remarkable 255% growth over roughly two months stands out, especially for a protocol as substantial as SUI.

This growth was accompanied by a significant increase in SUI price itself, climbing from $0.46 to $2.36. That represents a staggering 391% growth in the same period.

However, following that surge, SUI’s TVL has shown signs of stability, consistently hovering around $1 billion without further gains since early October.

This plateau suggests that after the sharp rise in both TVL and price, SUI might be transitioning into a consolidation phase or potentially even gearing up for a correction, as the rapid growth appears to have cooled off.

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SUI ADX Shows the Current Downtrend is Still Not That Strong

SUI’s ADX is currently at 16.82, indicating the strength of the current trend. With a value below 20, this suggests that the trend is still weak, implying limited directional movement in the market.

The ADX is a valuable indicator as it helps gauge the momentum of a trend, whether upward or downward.

The ADX (Average Directional Index) values are generally used to determine how strong a trend is, with numbers between 20 and 40 signaling moderate strength and anything above 40 showing a very strong trend. Just two days ago, SUI’s ADX was at 9, showing a noticeable increase recently.

As SUI seems to be heading into a downtrend, a continued rise in ADX would imply a strengthening bearish momentum, which could lead to a significant correction in the next few days.

SUI Price Prediction: Will SUI Form a Death Cross Soon?

SUI’s EMA lines currently indicate that its short-term averages are trending downward and could soon cross below its long-term averages. This is often referred to as a “bearish crossover,” which suggests that bearish momentum may be gaining strength.

Such a crossover can indicate the beginning of a potential downtrend as short-term price sentiment weakens compared to the longer-term outlook.

Read more: Everything You Need to Know About the Sui Blockchain

If this bearish crossover occurs, SUI has support levels at $1.74 and $1.60, pointing to a potential correction of up to 17%. On the other hand, if SUI’s Total Value Locked (TVL) starts to grow again and sparks a renewed price rally, the price could test resistance at $2.16.

Should that level be broken, SUI could also test $2.36, which would represent a possible 21% price increase.

The crypto market encountered a setback yesterday as Bitcoin (BTC) fell short in its attempt to reach $70,000. Despite this, several other cryptos managed to maintain their positions on the list of altcoins trending today.

Among these, some coins showcased solid performance, while others trended for different reasons despite not delivering strong results. As of today, October 22, the top three trending altcoins on CoinGecko are Scroll (SCR), Solidus Ai Tech (AITECH), and KOALA AI (KOKO).

Scroll tops the list of altcoins trending today due to its native token, SCR. On Monday, October 21, Scroll, a leading zero knowledge rollup built on Ethereum, announced the launch of SCR. According to its official statement, the launch also comes with an airdrop for contributors and its community.

“We’ve allocated 55,000,000 SCR tokens (5.5% of the total supply) to participants who have actively contributed to the Scroll ecosystem through their on-chain activities in our Sessions Program. Out of this allocation, 40,000,000 SCR (4% of the total supply) are proportionally allocated among onchain participants who have accumulated 200 or more Marks as of October 19, 2024,” the project wrote.

One reason Scroll is trending is the controversy surrounding its airdrop allocation. On X (formerly Twitter), numerous early adopters are expressing frustration over transacting thousands of dollars on the chain only to receive SCR tokens valued significantly less.

For example, a pseudonymous user with the handle Picolas Cage noted that this allocation means that the project has lost a six-figure DeFi user.

Read more: 10 Best Crypto Exchange Reviews for October 2024

Meanwhile, as seen above, SCR launched at approximately $1.70. However, its value has dropped in the last 24 hours and is currently trading at $1.24. In addition, it might be too early to predict SCR’s next price movement, as it seems to still be in price discovery mode.

Solidus Ai Tech (AITECH)

This is the third time AITECH is on BeInCrypto’s trending altcoins list. This time, the price did not increase as it has seen a modest 3% decline in 24 hours. However, it remains on this list due to the broader market interest in the project

On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below the 50.00 neutral region. This suggests that the momentum around the token is bearish, and the recent downturn can accelerate.

If that remains the same, then SCR’s price might retrace to$0.080 from $0.094, where it currently stands. However, if buying pressure increases, the prediction might invalidated, and the trending altcoin’s value might jump to $0.12.

KOALA AI (KOKO)

KOALA AI is another altcoin that has previously appeared on this list. Like the previous time, KOKO is trending because of its massive price increase. 

Over the last 24 hours, KOKO’s price has increased by 125% and currently sits at $0.0000067. Based on the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands (BB) has expanded, indicating a high level of volatility around the cryptocurrency.

However, the upper band of BB has touched KOKO’s price, indicating that it is overbought and a decline looms. Assuming the lower band tapped the price, it would have been termed oversold. 

Read more: Which Are the Best Altcoins To Invest in October 2024?

Considering this current condition, the altcoin’s value might drop by 20% to $0.0000055. On the other hand, if bulls continue to buy the token, it might sustain the uptrend and could rally to $0.0000084.