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Will Toncoin (TON) Lose Its Position in the Top 10?

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Telegram Coin Toncoin (TON) has lost its market cap position to Tron (TRX) following a recent price correction and the ongoing detention of Pavel Durov. Before Sunday’s events, TON had a market cap of $17.20 billion, while Tron’s market cap was over $14 billion after surpassing Cardano.

However, with TON’s market cap declining, its position in the top 10 cryptocurrencies is now at risk, potentially leading to a further slide in the rankings.

The Flagship Telegram Coin Drops Behind Tron

Toncoin’s market cap has dropped to $13.47 billion, reflecting a staggering $4 billion decline over the past three days.

For those unfamiliar, market cap is calculated by multiplying the circulating supply by the asset’s price. Therefore, TON’s price drop has directly contributed to this decline. In contrast, Tron (TRX) is in a more favorable position.

While TON’s price has decreased by 18% over the last 30 days, TRX’s value has increased by the same percentage. This rise in TRX’s price is largely attributed to the launch of SunPump, a meme coin token generator introduced by the blockchain’s founder, Justin Sun.

Read more: What Are Telegram Bot Coins?

Toncoin vs. Tron Market Cap
Toncoin vs. Tron Market Cap. Source: Santiment

It’s not as though Toncoin hasn’t had positive developments. Before the recent hype around Tron, the launch of numerous bot coins on Telegram — a messaging app closely tied to TON blockchain — brought significant attention to the cryptocurrency.

However, the ongoing sell-offs and Pavel Durov’s unresolved situation suggest that Toncoin’s price and market cap could drop further. Additionally, Toncoin’s Large Holders Inflow has decreased by 95% over the last seven days.

Large Holders Inflow tracks the activity of wallets holding over 1% of a cryptocurrency’s total circulating supply. Spikes in this metric typically indicate that large investors are buying after a significant price correction.

Toncoin Large Holders Inflow.
Toncoin Large Holders Inflow. Source: IntoTheBlock

In TON’s case, the decrease in this metric suggests that large investors are remaining cautious and not purchasing TON at the current price, potentially signaling further downside risk.

If this remains the same, the crypto might find it challenging to erase some of its recent losses, possibly preceding a further price decrease or loss of the number 10 market spot to Cardano (ADA).

TON Price Prediction: Set for Another Breakdown

On the daily chart, TON’s price remains under considerable pressure. For instance, the Telegram coin attempted to reach $6 yesterday, but as of this writing, it has dropped to $5.32, likely due to the broader market decline today.

Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for TON has decreased. The RSI measures momentum by evaluating the size and speed of price changes. An increasing RSI indicates bullish momentum, while a decreasing RSI suggests bearish momentum.

In TON’s case, the decreasing RSI indicates bearish momentum, signaling the potential for further price declines. Using the Fibonacci retracement indicator, BeInCrypto identifies key support and resistance levels for Toncoin.

The chart below shows that the 38.2% Fib level has recently acted as a resistance zone for TON, suggesting that it could be challenging for the cryptocurrency to achieve higher highs. TON must hold this Fib level to have a chance at climbing.

Read more: 10 Best Altcoin Exchanges In 2024

Toncoin Daily Analysis.
Toncoin Daily Analysis. Source: TradingView

If market prices continue to fall, TON’s price could drop below $5, possibly declining to $4.85. However, a rebound might occur if the blockchain resumes block production, which has been experiencing an outage.

In that scenario, increased transactions involving Toncoin could boost buying pressure and potentially push the price toward $5.67.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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XRP Recovery Stalls—Are Bears Still In Control?

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XRP price started a fresh decline from the $2.20 zone. The price is now consolidating and might face hurdles near the $2.120 level.

  • XRP price started a fresh decline after it failed to clear the $2.20 resistance zone.
  • The price is now trading below $2.150 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
  • There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2.120 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
  • The pair might extend losses if it fails to clear the $2.20 resistance zone.

XRP Price Faces Rejection

XRP price failed to continue higher above the $2.20 resistance zone and reacted to the downside, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price declined below the $2.150 and $2.120 levels.

The bears were able to push the price below the 50% Fib retracement level of the recovery wave from the $2.023 swing low to the $2.199 high. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2.120 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair.

The price is now trading below $2.150 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. However, the bulls are now active near the $2.10 support level. They are protecting the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recovery wave from the $2.023 swing low to the $2.199 high.

XRP Price

On the upside, the price might face resistance near the $2.120 level and the trend line zone. The first major resistance is near the $2.150 level. The next resistance is $2.20. A clear move above the $2.20 resistance might send the price toward the $2.240 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $2.2650 resistance or even $2.2880 in the near term. The next major hurdle for the bulls might be $2.320.

Another Decline?

If XRP fails to clear the $2.150 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $2.10 level. The next major support is near the $2.0650 level.

If there is a downside break and a close below the $2.0650 level, the price might continue to decline toward the $2.020 support. The next major support sits near the $2.00 zone.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $2.10 and $2.050.

Major Resistance Levels – $2.120 and $2.20.



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Experts Raise Red Flags Over Finances

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Circle’s initial public offering (IPO) filing has raised concerns among industry experts, who are sounding alarms over the company’s financial health, distribution costs, and valuation. 

While the move marks a significant step toward mainstream financial integration, experts’ skepticism casts doubt on the company’s long-term prospects.

Analysts Highlight Red Flags With Circle IPO

On April 1, BeInCrypto reported that Circle had filed for an IPO. The company plans to list its Class A common stock on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under “CRCL.”

Circle’s IPO filing reveals revenue of $1.67 billion in 2024, a notable increase from previous years. However, a closer examination of the company’s financials has uncovered some challenges.

Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, noted that revenue increased 16% year over year. Yet, at the same time, the company reported a 29% decrease in EBITDA year over year, indicating a decline in operational profitability. Additionally, net income fell by 42%, reflecting a significant drop in overall profitability.

Circle Financial Data
Circle Financial Data. Source: X/MatthewSigel

Sigel pointed out four factors contributing to the decline in these financial metrics. He explained that the company’s rapid expansion and new service integrations negatively impacted net income. 

Furthermore, the discontinuation of services like Circle Yield reduced other revenue streams. This, in turn, exacerbated the decline in profitability. 

“Costs related to restructuring, legal settlements, and acquisition-related expenses also played a role in the decline in EBITDA and net income, despite overall revenue growth,” Sigel added.

Importantly, he focused on Circle’s increased distribution and transaction costs. Sigel revealed that the cost rose due to higher fees paid to partners like Coinbase and Binance.

A related post by Farside Investors on X (formerly Twitter) shed further light on these expenses.

“In 2024, the company spent over $1 billion on “distribution and transaction costs,” probably much higher than Tether as a % of revenue,” the post read.

This prompts speculation that Circle may be overspending to maintain its market share in the competitive stablecoin sector. The company’s historical performance further fuels skepticism.

Farside Investors added that in 2022, Circle recorded a staggering $720 million loss. Notably, the year was marked by significant turmoil in the crypto industry, including the high-profile collapses of FTX and Three Arrows Capital (3AC). 

This suggests that Circle may be vulnerable to market shocks. Thus, it calls into question the company’s risk management capabilities—especially in the inherently volatile crypto market.

“The gross creation and redemption numbers are a lot higher than we would have thought for USDC. Gross creations in a year are many multiples higher than the outstanding balance,” Farside Investors remarked.

In addition, analyst Omar expressed doubts about Circle’s $5 billion valuation. 

“Nothing to love in the Circle IPO filing and no idea how it prices at $5 billion,” he questioned.

He drew attention to several concerns, including the company’s gross margins being severely impacted by high distribution costs. The analyst also pointed out that the deregulation of the US market is poised to disrupt Circle’s position. 

Additionally, Omar stressed that Circle spends over $250 million annually on compensation and another $140 million on general and administrative costs, raising questions about its financial efficiency. He also noted that interest rates—core income drivers for Circle—will likely decline, presenting additional challenges.

“32x ’24 earnings for a business that just lost its mini-monopoly and facing several headwinds is expensive when growth structurally challenged,” Omar said.

Analysis of Circle's Finances Ahead of IPO
Analysis of Circle’s Valuation Ahead of IPO. Source: X/Omar

Ultimately, the analyst concluded that the IPO filing was a desperate attempt to secure liquidity before facing serious market difficulties.

Meanwhile, Wyatt Lonergan, General Partner at VanEck, shared his predictions for Circle’s IPO, outlining four potential scenarios. In the base case, he forecasted that Circle would capitalize on the stablecoin narrative and secure key partnerships to drive growth. 

In a bear case, Lonergan speculated that poor market conditions might lead to a Coinbase buyout.

“Circle IPOs, the market continues to tank, Circle stock goes with it. Poor business fundamentals cited. Coinbase swoops in to buy at a discount to the IPO price. USDC is all theirs at long last. Coinbase acquires Circle for something close to the IPO price, and they never go public,” Lonergan claimed.

Lastly, he outlined a probable scenario where Ripple bids up Circle’s valuation to a staggering $15 to $20 billion and acquires the company.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Ethereum Price Approaches Resistance—Will It Smash Through?

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Ethereum price started a recovery wave above the $1,850 level. ETH is now consolidating and facing key hurdles near the $1,920 level.

  • Ethereum started a recovery wave above $1,820 and $1,850 levels.
  • The price is trading above $1,860 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
  • There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $1,860 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
  • The pair must clear the $1,900 and $1,920 resistance levels to start a decent increase.

Ethereum Price Starts Recovery

Ethereum price managed to stay above the $1,750 support zone and started a recovery wave, like Bitcoin. ETH was able to climb above the $1,820 and $1,850 resistance levels.

The bulls even pushed the price above the $1,880 resistance zone. There was a move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the $2,032 swing high to the $1,767 low. However, the bears are active near the $1,920 zone.

Ethereum price is now trading above $1,850 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $1,860 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD.

On the upside, the price seems to be facing hurdles near the $1,900 level. The next key resistance is near the $1,920 level and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the $2,032 swing high to the $1,767 low.

Ethereum Price
Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

The first major resistance is near the $1,970 level. A clear move above the $1,970 resistance might send the price toward the $2,020 resistance. An upside break above the $2,020 resistance might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $2,050 resistance zone or even $2,120 in the near term.

Another Decline In ETH?

If Ethereum fails to clear the $1,920 resistance, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $1,860 level and the trend line. The first major support sits near the $1,845 zone.

A clear move below the $1,845 support might push the price toward the $1,800 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $1,765 support level in the near term. The next key support sits at $1,710.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACDThe MACD for ETH/USD is losing momentum in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSIThe RSI for ETH/USD is now above the 50 zone.

Major Support Level – $1,860

Major Resistance Level – $1,920



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