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Will the FOMC Provide Relief?

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Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto markets are navigating challenging conditions, historically worsened by September’s seasonality struggles.

In a recent report, Kaiko researchers recently explored how a potential US rate cut and other key economic events could affect Bitcoin. These four charts provided by the analysts explain what to expect from BTC in the coming weeks.

Monthly Change in Bitcoin Price in September

As BeInCrypto reported, the third quarter has historically been challenging for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, with September often delivering the worst returns. Kaiko highlights that Bitcoin has declined in seven of the last twelve Septembers.

In 2024, this pattern continues, with Bitcoin down 7.5% in August and 6.3% so far in September. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading over 20% below its recent all-time high of nearly $73,500, recorded more than five months ago.

Read More: How To Buy Bitcoin (BTC) and Everything You Need To Know

Bitcoin Price September Performances Since 2012, Source: Kaiko
Bitcoin Price September Performance Since 2012. Source: Kaiko

However, according to Kaiko Research, upcoming US rate cuts could provide a boost to risk assets like Bitcoin. Bitget Wallet COO Alvin Kan shares this stance.

“At the Jackson Hole meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that it might be time for policy adjustments, leading to expectations of future interest rate cuts. The US Dollar Index responded by dropping sharply and is now fluctuating around 100. With a rate cut in September becoming a consensus expectation, the official start of rate cut trading could improve overall market liquidity, providing a boost to crypto assets,” Kan told BeInCrypto.

30-day Historical Volatility

According to the report, September is shaping up to be highly volatile, with Bitcoin’s 30-day historical volatility surging to 70%. This metric measures the fluctuation in an asset’s price over the past 30 days, reflecting how dramatically its price has moved within that period. 

Bitcoin’s current volatility is nearly double last year’s levels and is approaching the peak seen in March, when BTC hit an all-time high of over $73,000.

Bitcoin and Ethereum 30-D Volatility, Source Kaiko
Bitcoin and Ethereum 30D Volatility. Source: Kaiko

Ethereum (ETH) has also experienced heightened volatility, surpassing both March’s levels and Bitcoin’s, driven by ETH-specific events such as Jump Trading’s liquidations and the launch of Ethereum ETFs.

BTC Implied Volatility by Expiry

Since the start of September, Bitcoin’s implied volatility (IV) has risen after dipping in late August. The IV indicator measures market expectations for future price fluctuations based on current options trading activity. Higher IV suggests that traders anticipate larger price swings ahead, though it doesn’t specify the direction of the move.

Notably, short-term options expiries have seen the sharpest increase, with the September 13 expiry jumping from 52% to 61%, surpassing end-of-month contracts. For the layperson, when short-term implied volatility exceeds longer-term measures, it indicates heightened market stress, referred to as an “inverted structure.”

Bitcoin Implied Volatility, Source: Kaiko
Bitcoin Implied Volatility. Source: Kaiko

Risk managers often see an inverted structure as a signal of heightened uncertainty or market stress. As a result, they may interpret this as a warning to de-risk their portfolios by reducing exposure to volatile assets or hedging against potential downside.

“These market expectations align with last week’s US jobs report, which dampened hopes for a 50bps decrease. However, upcoming US CPI data could still sway the odds,” Kaiko researchers note.

Trade Volume

The Bitcoin trade volumes chart also highlights the current market volatility, showing increased trader participation. Cumulative trade volume is nearing a record $3 trillion, up nearly 20% in the first eight months of 2024 after its last peak in 2021.

Read more: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030

Bitcoin Trade Volumes, Source: Kaiko
Bitcoin Trade Volums. Source: Kaiko

Traditionally, Bitcoin investors see a rate cut as a positive market catalyst. However, concerns remain about how the market might interpret a larger-than-expected cut. Markus Thielen, founder of 10X Research, cautions that a 50 basis points rate cut could be perceived as a sign of urgency, potentially triggering a retreat from risk assets like Bitcoin.

“While a 50 basis point cut by the Fed might signal deeper concerns to the markets, the Fed’s primary focus will be mitigating economic risks rather than managing market reactions,” Thielen said in a note to clients.

Alongside rate cut speculations, other factors contributing to crypto market fluctuations include the upcoming US elections. As BeInCrypto reported, the Donald Trump versus Kamala Harris debate is expected to trigger movement, particularly in Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Will Notcoin Price Break This Key Resistance?

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Like other altcoins in the market, Notcoin (NOT) has seen a price increase in the last 24 hours. Within the period mentioned, NOT has jumped by 8% while its volume has surged 85%, indicating growing interest in the Telegram coin.

With market volatility at a high level, Notcoin faces a crucial momentum that could determine its short-term movement. If NOT fails to break through this key resistance, it risks facing a significant correction that may send its price tumbling.

Notcoin Encounters Challenges

Notcoin is currently trading at $0.0078, still 73% below its all-time high. Despite recent gains in price and volume, which suggest a potential rally, the 4-hour analysis indicates the token could face challenges as it targets $0.011.

The 4-hour chart shows that Notcoin is working its way toward $0.0080, but this level has previously acted as resistance, where the coin faced rejection. If Notcoin fails to break above this price level, it could see a 10% correction. In this case, its value might drop to $0.0072.

Read more: 5 Top Notcoin Wallets in 2024

Notcoin 4-Hour Analysis.
Notcoin 4-Hour Analysis. Source: TradingView

An evaluation of Notcoin on the daily timeframe shows its Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the neutral 50.00 mark. The RSI is a momentum indicator that tracks the speed and size of price changes.

If the RSI moves above the midpoint, it signals bullish momentum and a potential price increase. Conversely, a decline in the RSI suggests weakening momentum.

For Notcoin, the RSI is rising but still below the signal line, indicating the uptrend is uncertain. The token’s upward movement will likely remain shaky unless bulls apply more pressure to push the price higher.

Notcoin Relative Strength Index.
Notcoin Relative Strength Index. Source: TradingView

NOT Price Prediction: Rally Could Stop

Furthermore, the Fibonacci retracement indicator provides insights into NOT’s next movement. From a short-term perspective, bulls might try to break above $0.0085. However, around the same region, Notcoin began a decline that pulled it down to $0.0072 on September 6.

As such, that region is a supply zone that requires notable buying pressure to surpass. Currently, it does not appear that Notcoin has the notable capital flow to keep the upswing going.

Read more: Notcoin (NOT) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030

Notcoin Daily Price Analysis.
Notcoin Daily Analysis. Source: TradingView

In a highly bearish scenario, Notcoin’s price could drop to $0.0072 and possibly as low as $0.0069. On the other hand, if the token manages to break above the $0.0080 and $0.0085 resistance levels, it could potentially surge to $0.011.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Why 2024 Altcoin Season Could Fuel a Rally in These 6 Tokens

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Crypto investors and analysts support that the 2024 altcoin season may have just started, drawing signals from multiple fundamentals, including Bitcoin’s (BTC) sustained foray above $63,000.

The optimism comes after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided a 50 basis points interest rate cut in September, suggesting the US economy is in a good place.

Crypto Banter Founder Highlights Tokens Primed for Altcoins

Crypto Banter, a popular YouTube channel with over 1.08 million subscribers, says the 2024 altcoin season is beginning. Its founder, Ran Neuner, cites the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest cut on Wednesday, increasing global liquidity and the all-time high seen in the money market funds. With this, he lists six tokens that are best positioned to rally if the altcoin season takes off.

SUI

The analyst starts by highlighting Sui (SUI) as a standout token, noting its rising prominence in the market, even posing a threat to Solana (SOL). SUI has been making headlines with major partnerships, including Circle’s USDC integration. Grayscale also recently launched a Sui Trust, which has driven a significant increase in both price and trading volume.

Ran Neuner believes these strong fundamentals position SUI for success in the short term, especially if an altcoin season unfolds.

FTM

The analyst also highlights Fantom (FTM) as a promising altcoin, noting its strong price performance. FTM has gained attention after recent internal developments, including the rebrand to Sonic Labs in August.

The rebrand has sparked renewed investor interest, positioning Fantom for further growth. Sonic Labs is building on this momentum with the launch of Sonic Gateway, a decentralized bridge that enables secure ERC-20 token transfers between Ethereum and Sonic.

This development has provided a boost for FTM, which has risen by 10% since the Thursday session began, trading at $0.33, according to BeInCrypto data.

IMX

ImmutableX (IMX) is also on Crypto Banter’s list of altcoins poised to rally on a possible alt season. The gaming token has broken above a falling wedge pattern, effectively confirming a reversal. Based on this breakout, analysts expect a bullish wave.

Read more: What Is Altcoin Season? A Comprehensive Guide

IMX Price Performance
IMX/USDT 2-day chart, Source: TradingView

AERO

The portfolio rebalancing also considers Aerodrome (AERO), as the central trading and liquidity marketplace continues to thrive on Base L2. The underlying fundamental for AERO is Aerodrome’s MetaDEX model, which combines the best aspects of previous decentralized exchange market leaders.

“When we assess Aerodrome’s implied outcomes through a model, it’s evident that token inflation, in itself, is not inherently bad. Instead, emissions are just one input into an economic model—a cost that can be managed and overcome,” a DeFi researcher echoed.

SOL

If the assumption proves accurate, Solana (SOL) may be gearing up for a strong rally, given its history of delivering impressive gains during altcoin market surges. Solana has often outperformed when broader altcoin momentum picks up, making it a key player to watch.

Currently, SOL is trading at $141.53, marking a 10% increase in the last 24 hours, according to BeInCrypto data.

OM

MANTRA (OM) earns a spot on the analyst’s list due to the upcoming launch of its mainnet in October. This event is expected to be a major milestone for the project, as it will bring real-world assets (RWA) on-chain. The mainnet launch will be a crucial step in integrating traditional finance (TradFi) into the blockchain ecosystem, creating new opportunities for MANTRA’s growth.

Read more: How To Invest in Real-World Crypto Assets (RWA)?

Ran Neuner also highlighted several other tokens that could see strong rallies, including Arweave (ARV), THORChain (RUNE), Render (RNDR), Crown by Third Time Games (CROWN), and SuperVerse (SUPER). These tokens have posted steady, conservative gains despite recent market uncertainty, positioning them for larger increases if an altcoin season takes off.

However, Neuner advises investors to keep an eye on the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) CPI and interest rate decision on Friday. He warns that if the BOJ raises rates, it could disrupt the current rally, potentially leading to a market reversal. On the other hand, if the BOJ cuts interest rates, it could reinforce the ongoing upward momentum.

“Don’t get overconfident. We need good CPI out of Japan tomorrow and for BOJ not to raise rates on Friday. September still has some potential liquidity drains so don’t lever up to the gills, just 8 more days until it is really up only,” GamesMasterFlex wrote.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Will NEIRO Price hit $0.17 soon?

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After a brutal 45% plunge triggered by Binance’s actions, Neiro Ethereum (NEIRO) is making a remarkable comeback. The meme coin has surged by an impressive 51% in the past 24 hours, outpacing the broader meme market.

With a resurgence in demand for NEIRO, the meme coin looks poised to extend its gains.

Neiro Ethereum Makes Its Comeback

BeinCrypto reported that NEIRO saw a sharp 45% price drop on Monday after Binance listed a different token with the same NEIRO ticker on its spot and futures markets.

However, the broader market’s positive sentiment over the past 24 hours, fueled by the US Federal Reserve’s rate cut, sparked a strong recovery for NEIRO. At press time, the altcoin is trading at $0.11, up 51%, with trading volume surging 53% to $93 million.

This rally has significantly boosted the number of profitable NEIRO transactions. Santiment data shows the ratio of transaction volume in profit to loss is now 3.66, its highest since the token’s July launch. This means that for every transaction at a loss today, 3.66 have turned a profit.

Read more: Best Crypto To Buy Now: Top Coins To Keep an Eye on in September 2024

NEIRO Ratio of Daily On-Chain Transaction Volume in Profit to Loss. Source: Santiment

NEIRO traders remain bullish, with the altcoin’s funding rate at 0.01%, indicating higher demand for long positions among futures market participants.

neiro funding rate
NEIRO Funding Rate. Source: Santiment

NEIRO Price Prediction: Higher Demand May Push Token To $0.17

NEIRO’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the four-hour chart confirms the growing accumulation of the altcoin. At 59.07, this momentum indicator suggests market conditions are leaning toward buying rather than selling.

If buying pressure continues, NEIRO’s uptrend could persist, with the potential to rise another 46% and reach $0.17.

Read more: 7 Hot Meme Coins and Altcoins that are Trending in 2024

neiro price prediction
Neiro Ethereum 4-Hour Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, if selloffs gain momentum, this bullish projection will be invalidated as NEIRO’s price may drop to $0.06.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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