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Will the FOMC Provide Relief?

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Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto markets are navigating challenging conditions, historically worsened by September’s seasonality struggles.

In a recent report, Kaiko researchers recently explored how a potential US rate cut and other key economic events could affect Bitcoin. These four charts provided by the analysts explain what to expect from BTC in the coming weeks.

Monthly Change in Bitcoin Price in September

As BeInCrypto reported, the third quarter has historically been challenging for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, with September often delivering the worst returns. Kaiko highlights that Bitcoin has declined in seven of the last twelve Septembers.

In 2024, this pattern continues, with Bitcoin down 7.5% in August and 6.3% so far in September. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading over 20% below its recent all-time high of nearly $73,500, recorded more than five months ago.

Read More: How To Buy Bitcoin (BTC) and Everything You Need To Know

Bitcoin Price September Performances Since 2012, Source: Kaiko
Bitcoin Price September Performance Since 2012. Source: Kaiko

However, according to Kaiko Research, upcoming US rate cuts could provide a boost to risk assets like Bitcoin. Bitget Wallet COO Alvin Kan shares this stance.

“At the Jackson Hole meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that it might be time for policy adjustments, leading to expectations of future interest rate cuts. The US Dollar Index responded by dropping sharply and is now fluctuating around 100. With a rate cut in September becoming a consensus expectation, the official start of rate cut trading could improve overall market liquidity, providing a boost to crypto assets,” Kan told BeInCrypto.

30-day Historical Volatility

According to the report, September is shaping up to be highly volatile, with Bitcoin’s 30-day historical volatility surging to 70%. This metric measures the fluctuation in an asset’s price over the past 30 days, reflecting how dramatically its price has moved within that period. 

Bitcoin’s current volatility is nearly double last year’s levels and is approaching the peak seen in March, when BTC hit an all-time high of over $73,000.

Bitcoin and Ethereum 30-D Volatility, Source Kaiko
Bitcoin and Ethereum 30D Volatility. Source: Kaiko

Ethereum (ETH) has also experienced heightened volatility, surpassing both March’s levels and Bitcoin’s, driven by ETH-specific events such as Jump Trading’s liquidations and the launch of Ethereum ETFs.

BTC Implied Volatility by Expiry

Since the start of September, Bitcoin’s implied volatility (IV) has risen after dipping in late August. The IV indicator measures market expectations for future price fluctuations based on current options trading activity. Higher IV suggests that traders anticipate larger price swings ahead, though it doesn’t specify the direction of the move.

Notably, short-term options expiries have seen the sharpest increase, with the September 13 expiry jumping from 52% to 61%, surpassing end-of-month contracts. For the layperson, when short-term implied volatility exceeds longer-term measures, it indicates heightened market stress, referred to as an “inverted structure.”

Bitcoin Implied Volatility, Source: Kaiko
Bitcoin Implied Volatility. Source: Kaiko

Risk managers often see an inverted structure as a signal of heightened uncertainty or market stress. As a result, they may interpret this as a warning to de-risk their portfolios by reducing exposure to volatile assets or hedging against potential downside.

“These market expectations align with last week’s US jobs report, which dampened hopes for a 50bps decrease. However, upcoming US CPI data could still sway the odds,” Kaiko researchers note.

Trade Volume

The Bitcoin trade volumes chart also highlights the current market volatility, showing increased trader participation. Cumulative trade volume is nearing a record $3 trillion, up nearly 20% in the first eight months of 2024 after its last peak in 2021.

Read more: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030

Bitcoin Trade Volumes, Source: Kaiko
Bitcoin Trade Volums. Source: Kaiko

Traditionally, Bitcoin investors see a rate cut as a positive market catalyst. However, concerns remain about how the market might interpret a larger-than-expected cut. Markus Thielen, founder of 10X Research, cautions that a 50 basis points rate cut could be perceived as a sign of urgency, potentially triggering a retreat from risk assets like Bitcoin.

“While a 50 basis point cut by the Fed might signal deeper concerns to the markets, the Fed’s primary focus will be mitigating economic risks rather than managing market reactions,” Thielen said in a note to clients.

Alongside rate cut speculations, other factors contributing to crypto market fluctuations include the upcoming US elections. As BeInCrypto reported, the Donald Trump versus Kamala Harris debate is expected to trigger movement, particularly in Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Nobody Kidnapped Ledger Co-Founder Eric Larchevêque

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In a bizarre development, an alleged kidnapping story of Ledger co-founder Eric Larchevêque is apparently a hoax. There is little information about Larchevêque‘s current whereabouts, but a “Justice for Eric” meme coin launched and crashed.

This strange episode took off like wildfire through crypto social media, but there was apparently not a scrap of proof.

Who Kidnapped Eric Larchevêque?

Ledger, a hardware wallet firm based in France, has experienced some difficulties recently. Its most recent major headlines were related to phishing scams targeting its users. However, today’s incident is far more dramatic.

According to local media, Ledger’s co-founder Eric Larchevêque was kidnapped. The report even alleged that the criminals demanded Bitcoin as a ransom.

This incident raises a lot of questions. For one, Larchevêque hasn’t been involved with Ledger since resigning in 2019. It appears that the kidnapping was staged, but this claim comes from an odd source.

Eventhough the rumor spread like a wildfire across social media, Larchevêque didn’t make any posts clarifying his current state. He’s a fairly active user on X (formerly Twitter), yet his last post was over 24 hours ago.

Instead, local crypto reporter Grégory Raymond stated that it was a hoax.

“We are able to assure that Eric Larchevêque (co-founder of Ledger) is not involved in the kidnapping rumor about him. Be careful with published information that could threaten an ongoing investigation in France and possibly someone else’s life,” Raymond claimed.

He added that “Eric is safe,” but was unable to communicate any other updates. This news did little to alleviate the community’s concerns and indeed only raised further questions.

If Larchevêque isn’t party to this kidnapping, then who is, and who would pretend to kidnap an ex-employee of Ledger?

The firm has been riddled with controversy over the last few years, but this incident takes the cake. Since Larchevêque and the original founders departed, Ledger’s new CEO received a lot of bad press over security concerns.

Also, back in 2023, the firm carried out massive layoffs. However, issues like this wouldn’t explain a fake kidnapping scandal.

Meanwhile, the story was viral enough for meme coin enthusiasts to jump in. An anonymous user launched a “Justice for Eric” meme coin on Solana, but its market cap cratered almost immediately.

ledger eric meme coin
Justic For Eric Meme Coin. Source: Dex Screener

Whoever launched it may be totally unrelated to the incident and only intending to do a quick rug pull. It still doesn’t answer any of the biggest lingering questions.

Ultimately, wherever Larchevêque is, or whatever reason Ledger’s name keeps coming up, this hoax highlights a growing issue in crypto. Several popular X accounts immediately began circulating this kidnapping story, even though there was no proof.

This entire episode may be more of a misunderstanding than a deliberate hoax, but it spread like wildfire all the same. The correct details of this story will only surface when Larchevêque gives an update on social media.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Lido Founder Lomashuk Promotes Second Ethereum Foudnation

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Lido founder Konstantin Lomashuk created a “Second Foundation” for Ethereum as the blockchain is going through leadership debacles.

The only material from this account remains vague, but a closer look at Lomashuk’s social media provides insight. In all likelihood, this Second Foundation will help promote decentralized ideals against the “bag-chasing” culture of modern crypto.

Lomashuk’s Goals For Second Foundation

Konstantin Lomashuk, founder of Lido and P2P.org, announced today on social media that he had created a “Second Foundation” for Ethereum.

This came after the Ethereum Foundation (EF) started undergoing a significant leadership transformation. Earlier today, veteran developer Eric Conner resigned from the project.

So far, Lomashuk’s intentions for this Second Foundation remain somewhat obscure. The actual announcement consisted of the phrase “hello world computer,” but the new account has no official description.

However, by looking at some of the material Lomachuk has been reposting lately, some insights into his thought process become clearer:

“The future of the world computer is decentralized. EF is only one part of the world computer. Perhaps the org that some people want to reform and bring back to new greater heights is actually not EF. The foundation should not ‘midcurve’, it should confidently represent the aspects of Ethereum that it can be effective at representing,” Vitalik Buterin said.

Also, Lomashuk said that comments about the growing scam culture in crypto “completely resonate” with him, providing insights into what he wants this Second Foundation to achieve.

For Lomashuk, this may be an opportune moment to divert his attention to the Second Foundation; Lido has been performing well lately.

“Vitalik, the best thing you could do right now imo is to spin out the R&D support functions from the EF into their own org and allow the existing Foundation to focus on ecosystem development and support this would be the best way to demonstrate a commitment towards decentralization,” a popular Ethereum investor wrote.

It’s evident that EF is experiencing a leadership crisis. At the same time, Ethereum has been plagued by declining demand, and EF is considering using staking to pay expenses. This would end a years-long taboo on taking a firm side in a future hard fork.

Ultimately, however, Lomashuk intends to proceed, the Second Foundation’s broad goals seem legible. Since the crypto market received massive cash flows and institutional acceptance last year, the space has transformed drastically.

Nonetheless, he expressed continued faith in the original vision of digital currency: a tool to build radically decentralized structures.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Why These Altcoins Are Trending Today — January 22

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With Donald Trump assuming office as the US President, the crypto market has experienced heightened volatility. While some altcoins have surged, others have faced significant crashes, and many are gaining attention due to recent developments. 

BeInCrypto has analyzed three altcoins that have been trending over the past 24 hours and explored what might lie ahead for them in the coming days.

United States Donald Trump (TRUMP)

TRUMP has captured significant attention this week as the official cryptocurrency token of US President Donald Trump. Since its launch, the token has gained immense traction and is now ranked 24th among the top 100 cryptocurrencies, marking a swift rise in prominence within the market.

The token recently hit an all-time high (ATH) of $79 and is currently trading at $41. If TRUMP can secure $45 as a support level, it may resume its upward momentum and make another attempt at its ATH, signaling strong bullish sentiment among investors.

TRUMP Price Analysis
TRUMP Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, profit-taking could pressure the token, preventing it from surpassing $45. A drop below this critical level could lead to a decline under $34, potentially invalidating the bullish outlook. In a worst-case scenario, TRUMP might fall to $26, reflecting a significant shift in market sentiment.

World (WLD)

World (WLD) captured investor attention following the announcement of Sam Altman’s OpenAI collaboration with Oracle and SoftBank. Together, they plan to invest $500 billion in US AI infrastructure under the Stargate Project, supported by President Trump. This strategic move has bolstered confidence in WLD, positioning it as a trending altcoin.

WLD’s price surged by 12% in the past 24 hours, driven by the positive sentiment surrounding this partnership. This rally could enable the altcoin to reclaim its 4-month-old uptrend line as support. If achieved, WLD might target $2.55 in the coming days, reinforcing its bullish momentum.

WLD Price Analysis
WLD Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, if WLD fails to breach the $2.17 resistance, it risks losing traction and falling back to $2.00 or lower. A further decline to $1.74 could completely invalidate the bullish outlook, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment against the cryptocurrency.

Bonk (BONK)

BONK has surged into the spotlight following the inauguration of the US Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.), which spurred renewed interest in dog-themed meme coins. This development has elevated BONK’s status in the crypto market, drawing significant attention from both retail and institutional investors seeking speculative opportunities.

The token recorded an 8% increase, trading at $0.00003236 and eyeing $0.00003151 as a critical support level. Securing this floor would strengthen the meme coin’s recovery prospects, potentially attracting more bullish momentum. 

 BONK Price Analysis.
BONK Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, failure to hold the $0.00003151 support could lead to a decline toward $0.00002748. This drop would only invalidate the bullish outlook and also signal a broader loss of confidence in the token’s recovery potential.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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