Market
Will Ethereum (ETH) Price Outshine Bitcoin in September?
Recent data suggests Ethereum could benefit from diminishing interest in Bitcoin (BTC). At press time, ETH’s price had fallen by nearly 2%, similar to BTC’s movement.
However, during this period, market interest in ETH has grown, while Bitcoin has seen a drop in trader activity. This raises the question: is a capital rotation from BTC to altcoins starting?
Ethereum Gains Ground Against the Number One Coin
On August 26, Bitcoin’s open interest (OI) stood at over $12 billion. As of now, it has dropped to $11.55 billion, indicating that positions worth $500 million have been closed in the past 24 hours. In contrast, Ethereum’s OI has risen from $5.25 billion yesterday to $5.38 billion today.
Open interest tracks the flow of money in and out of the crypto market. An increase in OI means traders are gaining more exposure to a cryptocurrency by adding liquidity to their contracts, while a decrease signals reduced net positioning and capital flowing out of the market.
The recent rise in Ethereum’s OI, coupled with Bitcoin’s decline, suggests traders are shifting their focus from BTC to ETH, seeking better returns from Ethereum’s price movements.
Read more: Best Ethereum Wallets To Pick in 2024
Interestingly, this sentiment extends beyond derivatives market activity. According to IntoTheBlock, market participants are more inclined to gain exposure to ETH on the spot market rather than rotating capital out of the altcoin.
This trend is reflected in the buying and selling volumes visible on the order books of the top 20 exchanges. As shown below, participants are bidding (buying) 185,700 ETH, valued at around $2,687 each.
These coins, worth approximately $500 million, slightly exceed the volume of those looking to sell. If the bid side continues to outpace the ask, ETH’s price could be poised for a bounce.
ETH Price Prediction: The $2,800 Resistance Presents Challenges
Ethereum’s daily chart reveals a sharp downtrend in early August, with ETH’s price falling from $3,392 to $2,109. However, in recent weeks, the cryptocurrency has entered a consolidation phase, indicating a complex scenario where the market is uncertain about the next move.
Key support at $2,556 suggests that ETH may not drop below this level in the short term. Additionally, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) shows that ETH’s current price of $2,647 is significantly below its fair value.
The CCI measures an asset’s price relative to its average price over a given period. A high CCI reading indicates an asset is overvalued, signaling a potential price drop. Conversely, a low CCI suggests the asset is undervalued, presenting a potential buying opportunity.
In Ethereum’s case, the CCI’s decline points to the current price being below its historical average, a relatively positive sign that could support a more optimistic outlook.
Read more: Ethereum (ETH) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030
For now, ETH might continue trading sideways. However, if the altcoin can overcome the current market hesitation in buying large volumes, it could challenge resistance at $2,810, potentially break the $3,000 barrier, and aim for $3,360.
On the flip side, failure to break through the overhead resistance could invalidate the bullish outlook for ETH. In that scenario, ETH’s price might retest lower support levels around $2,556.
Disclaimer
In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
Market
Polymarket Faces Ban in France as US Election Betting Ends
According to a report from The Big Whale, the National Gaming Authority (ANJ), France’s gambling regulator, is preparing to block the prediction markets platform Polymarket.
Polymarket, the decentralized platform that allows users to bet on the outcome of political events, sports, and other occurrences using cryptocurrency, has gained popularity in recent months, especially with bets surrounding the US presidential election. More than $3.2 billion was reportedly wagered on the platform during this high-stakes period, with a record-breaking $294 million in volume on November 5 alone.
France Users May No Longer Access Polymarket
According to The Big Whale, a French website that covers the crypto industry, the ANJ’s impending ban comes after a French trader placed a $30 million bet on a Trump victory, reportedly attracting the regulator’s scrutiny.
The trader’s wager positioned him to make approximately $19 million in profits, a sum that has intensified concerns over Polymarket’s compliance with French gambling laws. A source close to the ANJ stated that despite Polymarket’s use of blockchain and cryptocurrency, its activities are akin to gambling, making it subject to restrictions under French law.
“We are aware of this site and we are currently examining its operation as well as its compliance with French gambling legislation,” The Big Whale reported, citing an ANJ spokesperson.
Read more: What is Polymarket? A Guide to The Popular Prediction Market
Legal expert William O’Rorke from ORWL Avocats explained that although Polymarket does not specifically target French users, its activities fall squarely under gambling regulations.
“Polymarket involves betting money on uncertain outcomes, which aligns with the legal definition of gambling,” O’Rorke noted.
Against this backdrop, the ANJ is well within its mandate to block the platform’s access in France. Accordingly, the French regulator may enforce the ban by blocking Polymarket’s domain name in France. It amy also pressure third-party players, like media outlets and online directories, to limit access to Polymarket links.
However, French users may still circumvent this by using virtual private networks (VPNs). This is because Polymarket’s crypto-based infrastructure allows for relatively anonymous participation.
France’s looming ban is not the first regulatory roadblock Polymarket has encountered. In 2022, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined Polymarket $1.4 million for failing to register as a designated contract market. The CFTC also challenged Kalshi’s operations due to questions about betting on political events.
Polymarket’s Fate After US Elections
Meanwhile, the US election was a significant catalyst for Polymarket. It drove the platform to new heights in user engagement and bet volume. Polymarket’s election-related markets have been featured on major financial platforms, including Bloomberg, highlighting the platform’s appeal to mainstream finance.
As BeInCrypto reported, Polymarket’s election betting topped $3 billion, reflecting unprecedented participation. The platform, however, faces a crossroads in its path forward. Following the climax of the US election on Wednesday, data from Dune Analytics shows a steep decline in Polymarket’s activity.
Daily active addresses and transaction volumes, which soared in the election lead-up, have notably dwindled as election-related betting winds down. For instance, Polymarket’s open interest, a key indicator of active betting engagement, dropped from $350 million to $268 million after the polls closed. Similarly, monthly new accounts have also dropped by over 41% between October and November.
Against this backdrop, Polymarket may need to diversify its market offerings or potentially embrace a new model to maintain user interest. This is considering election-related activity comprised the majority of the prediction market’s volume.
Rumors are circulating about a potential move toward a decentralized governance token, which could distribute control over Polymarket’s operations to its community. This shift would reduce the liability of the central authority by decentralizing decision-making, though it remains theoretical, with no clear timeline.
Read More: How To Use Polymarket In The United States: Step-by-Step Guide
Polymarket’s fast ascent and regulatory challenges highlight broader industry tensions between innovation and compliance. With election predictions no longer a draw and an impending ban in France, Polymarket’s future remains uncertain.
Its long-term viability may depend on how well it adapts to evolving regulatory landscapes and whether it can maintain popularity beyond election season peaks.
Disclaimer
In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
Market
XRP Price Ready to Rally? Signs Point to a Bullish Move
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Market
Solana (SOL) Rallies Strongly, Setting Sights on $200
Solana started a fresh increase above the $172 support zone. SOL price is rising and might soon aim for a move toward the $200 level.
- SOL price started a fresh increase after it settled above the $165 level against the US Dollar.
- The price is now trading above $172 and the 100-hourly simple moving average.
- There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $162 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
- The pair could continue to rise if it clears the $192 resistance zone.
Solana Price Starts Fresh Rally
Solana price formed a support base and started a fresh increase above the $162 level like Bitcoin and Ethereum. There was a strong move above the $165 and $172 resistance levels.
There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $162 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair. The price even cleared the $185 level. A high is formed at $192 and the price is now consolidating gains. It is trading above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $155 swing low to the $192 high.
Solana is now trading above $172 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $192 level. The next major resistance is near the $195 level.
The main resistance could be $200. A successful close above the $200 resistance level could set the pace for another steady increase. The next key resistance is $212. Any more gains might send the price toward the $220 level.
Another Dip in SOL?
If SOL fails to rise above the $192 resistance, it could start a downside correction. Initial support on the downside is near the $188 level. The first major support is near the $180 level.
A break below the $180 level might send the price toward the $172 zone or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $155 swing low to the $192 high. If there is a close below the $172 support, the price could decline toward the $165 support in the near term.
Technical Indicators
Hourly MACD – The MACD for SOL/USD is gaining pace in the bullish zone.
Hourly Hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for SOL/USD is above the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – $188 and $185.
Major Resistance Levels – $192 and $200.
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