On November 12, Solana’s (SOL) trading volume hit a four-month high of $12.60 billion amid the altcoin’s rally above $200. However, the same volume is now less than half of that, suggesting that Solana bears are ensuring that the price fails to rally toward $300.

But the question remains: Is a SOL rally no longer on the cards? This analysis examines the chances.

Solana Sees Waning Interest, Low Activity

According to Santiment, Solana’s volume is down to $5.72 billion. In the crypto market, trading volume represents the total number of coins or tokens exchanged during a specific period. This key metric offers insights into market activity and liquidity, helping traders assess the strength of price movements and overall interest in a particular asset.

From a price perspective, the increase in volume alongside a rise in a crypto’s market value is a bullish sign. 

However, in this case, the decline while the token trades at $216 suggests that Solana bears are restricting it from rousing higher. Thus, if the volume continues to decline, Solana’s price might also follow a downward trend.

Another metric that affects this is Solana’s active addresses. Active addresses measure the unique wallet addresses involved in sending or receiving funds within a specific timeframe. This metric reflects network activity and user engagement. 

A rise in active addresses often signals increased adoption and usage, which can positively influence a cryptocurrency’s price. Conversely, a decline may indicate waning interest in the network, potentially exerting downward pressure on the price.

According to Glassnode, Solana’s active addresses declined from over 20 million during the last days of October to 17.98 million. If this decrease continues, SOL might not have enough user engagement to support the uptrend.

SOL Price Prediction: Drop Below $200?

On the daily chart, Solana bears pushed the price back as soon as it hit $222.49. This pullback ensures that the altcoin’s hopes of reaching $300 have diminished. As mentioned above, the volume has decreased, which is also validated on the chart. 

If that is the case, Solana’s price could decrease toward the $190.30 level. This will happen if selling pressure increases and SOL bears continue to control the price direction.

On the other hand, an increase in volume accompanied by buying pressure could invalidate this thesis. If that happens, Solana’s price might cross above $225 into the $300 level.

Giggle Academy, an educational initiative launched by Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, was a victim of a cyberattack that compromised its official X account (formerly Twitter). This resulted in the distribution of phishing links and false information.

This incident comes as the emerging industry deals with the scourge of phishing attacks, which have led to substantial losses for users.

Giggle Academy’s Hack Reinforces Growing Phishing Attack Threats

On November 16, Zhao confirmed a breach on Giggle Academy’s X account and cautioned the community against interacting with the compromised account. The attackers falsely claimed a “new CEO” had been appointed and shared phishing links to lure victims into verifying this fabricated announcement.

Giggle Academy provides free online courses covering grades 1 to 12, focusing on core subjects and additional topics such as emotional intelligence, finance, and blockchain. Its mission centers on supporting underserved communities with accessible education.

The Giggle Academy breach underscores the growing phishing problem in the blockchain industry. This year alone, phishing-related losses have surpassed $800 million. Blockchain security firm CertiK attributes this surge to increasingly sophisticated techniques like wallet draining and address poisoning.

CertiK’s data reveals 247 phishing incidents recorded in 2024. The first quarter saw the highest number of attacks, with 82 cases, while Q2 and Q3 recorded 67 and 65 incidents, respectively. Q4 has already logged 33 cases, despite only being midway through.

Although Q1 experienced the most attacks, Q2 led in total losses, with over $433 million stolen. Losses in Q3 reached $343 million, while Q1 accounted for $67 million. Despite fewer incidents in Q4 so far, the monetary impact is on track to surpass early-year figures.

CertiK highlights a shift in phishing methods, with hackers increasingly employing advanced tools. Wallet-draining techniques, originally popularized by Ice Phishing, are becoming more potent. In such scams, users are tricked into granting token-spending permissions to malicious actors.

Modern variants combine these methods with additional draining tools, such as Angel Drainer and Pink Drainer. Angel Drainer’s recent acquisition of Inferno Drainer highlights the growing prevalence of such tools in phishing campaigns.

Another rising threat is address poisoning, where scammers create fake wallet addresses resembling legitimate ones. They then send scam tokens to victims, hoping to manipulate transaction histories. When users attempt to interact with a familiar address, they may accidentally transact with a fake one instead.

Reports suggest that Gary Gensler, Chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), may step down before Donald Trump assumes office in January.

Speculation around Gensler’s resignation follows growing backlash from the crypto community against his leadership at the regulatory agency.

Gensler Could Resign SEC Role Before January

On November 15, Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett hinted that Gensler could announce his resignation shortly after Thanksgiving.

“It’s anyone’s guess when his resignation announcement will come, but chatter in DC circles is that he’ll likely announce after Thanksgiving his intention to exit in early January, ahead of Trump’s inauguration,” Terrett said.

Notably, recent remarks from Gensler himself add to the speculation. In a Nov. 14 speech, he expressed pride in his service at the SEC, calling attention to the agency’s efforts to protect American investors. Gensler’s speech also included reflections on his tenure and what some interpreted as a farewell message.

“I’ve been proud to serve with my colleagues at the SEC who, day in and day out, work to protect American families on the highways of finance,” Gensler wrote.

During his leadership, the SEC approved the first spot crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which Gensler described as a significant step forward. He positioned this as a contrast to prior administrations that had blocked similar advancements.

However, his tenure has been marked by intense criticism from the crypto sector. Tyler Winklevoss, co-founder of Gemini, accused Gensler of harming the industry through a heavy-handed regulatory approach. Winklevoss argued that Gensler prioritized personal ambitions over fair regulation, describing his actions as damaging and deliberate.

Winklevoss warned the crypto community against associating with Gensler in the future, stating:

“No amount of apology can undo the damage he has done to our industry and our country. This type of person has no place at any institution, big or small. Americans have had enough of their tax dollars going towards a government that is supposed to protect them, but instead is wielded against them by politicians looking to advance their careers.”

Gensler’s SEC has pursued high-profile enforcement actions against major crypto firms, including Binance, Coinbase, and Ripple. Critics claim this enforcement-heavy strategy has stifled innovation and created an adversarial relationship between regulators and the industry.

Eyes on Gensler’s Successor

As speculation about Gensler’s resignation grows, attention has shifted to his potential replacement under Trump’s administration. Possible candidates include Robinhood’s Chief Legal Officer Dan Gallagher, former SEC General Counsel Bob Stebbins, and current Republican SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda.

Although Gallagher appears reluctant to accept the role, former SEC Chair Jay Clayton has endorsed Stebbins. Other contenders reportedly include Brad Bondi, Paul Atkins, Heath Tarbert, and Norm Champ.

The next SEC Chair will inherit a divided regulatory landscape and face the challenge of repairing strained relations with the cryptocurrency sector. As the industry continues to evolve, the SEC’s approach under new leadership will play a crucial role in shaping the future of crypto in the United States.