Market
Why Pyth Network (PYTH) May Fall to New Lows?
PYTH, the token that powers oracle service provider Pyth Network, has witnessed a significant decline in its derivatives market. Its total open interest has fallen to an all-time low.
This comes amid the general market downturn, which caused the token’s price to close at an all-time low of $0.22 during Monday’s trading session.
Pyth Record New Lows on Multiple Fronts
According to Santiment’s data, PYTH’s open interest reached an all-time high of $113 million on March 17. It has since experienced fluctuations, hitting both lower highs lows and lower highs.
However, Monday’s widespread losses in the cryptocurrency market led many PYTH derivatives traders to close their positions, causing open interest to plummet to a record low of $19 million.
Open interest refers to the total number of outstanding derivative contracts, such as options or futures, that have not been settled. When it drops, traders are closing their positions and exiting the market without opening new ones.
Further, due to PYTH’s double-digit price decline over the past week, several long positions have been liquidated. According to Coinglass, PYTH’s long liquidations have exceeded $1.8 million over the past seven days.
Read more: What Is a Blockchain Oracle? An Introductory Guide
As expected, market sentiment has shifted to negative as traders have demanded more short positions since the beginning of August. This means more traders are buying PYTH and expecting a price decline than those accumulating the altcoin in hopes of selling high.
PYTH Price Prediction: Will Price Revisit the All-Time Low?
The same bearish bias trails the altcoin in its spot market. Highlighting the decline in demand, PYTH’s Relative Strength Index (RS), as assessed on a daily chart, is below the 50-neutral line at 40.35 as of this writing.
An asset’s RSI measures its overbought and oversold market conditions. At 40.35, PYTH’s RSI indicates that selling pressure exceeds buying activity.
Further, the altcoin’s Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks how money flows into and out of its market, is below the zero line at -0.01. A CMF value is a sign of market weakness, as it indicates liquidity exit. It is a popular precursor to a sustained price decline.
PYTH’s price risks revisiting its all-time low of $0.22 if demand remains low and capital outflow persists. However, if bullish sentiment grows, the token’s price may rally toward a 30-day high of $0.44.
Disclaimer
In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
Market
Polymarket Faces Ban in France as US Election Betting Ends
According to a report from The Big Whale, the National Gaming Authority (ANJ), France’s gambling regulator, is preparing to block the prediction markets platform Polymarket.
Polymarket, the decentralized platform that allows users to bet on the outcome of political events, sports, and other occurrences using cryptocurrency, has gained popularity in recent months, especially with bets surrounding the US presidential election. More than $3.2 billion was reportedly wagered on the platform during this high-stakes period, with a record-breaking $294 million in volume on November 5 alone.
France Users May No Longer Access Polymarket
According to The Big Whale, a French website that covers the crypto industry, the ANJ’s impending ban comes after a French trader placed a $30 million bet on a Trump victory, reportedly attracting the regulator’s scrutiny.
The trader’s wager positioned him to make approximately $19 million in profits, a sum that has intensified concerns over Polymarket’s compliance with French gambling laws. A source close to the ANJ stated that despite Polymarket’s use of blockchain and cryptocurrency, its activities are akin to gambling, making it subject to restrictions under French law.
“We are aware of this site and we are currently examining its operation as well as its compliance with French gambling legislation,” The Big Whale reported, citing an ANJ spokesperson.
Read more: What is Polymarket? A Guide to The Popular Prediction Market
Legal expert William O’Rorke from ORWL Avocats explained that although Polymarket does not specifically target French users, its activities fall squarely under gambling regulations.
“Polymarket involves betting money on uncertain outcomes, which aligns with the legal definition of gambling,” O’Rorke noted.
Against this backdrop, the ANJ is well within its mandate to block the platform’s access in France. Accordingly, the French regulator may enforce the ban by blocking Polymarket’s domain name in France. It amy also pressure third-party players, like media outlets and online directories, to limit access to Polymarket links.
However, French users may still circumvent this by using virtual private networks (VPNs). This is because Polymarket’s crypto-based infrastructure allows for relatively anonymous participation.
France’s looming ban is not the first regulatory roadblock Polymarket has encountered. In 2022, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined Polymarket $1.4 million for failing to register as a designated contract market. The CFTC also challenged Kalshi’s operations due to questions about betting on political events.
Polymarket’s Fate After US Elections
Meanwhile, the US election was a significant catalyst for Polymarket. It drove the platform to new heights in user engagement and bet volume. Polymarket’s election-related markets have been featured on major financial platforms, including Bloomberg, highlighting the platform’s appeal to mainstream finance.
As BeInCrypto reported, Polymarket’s election betting topped $3 billion, reflecting unprecedented participation. The platform, however, faces a crossroads in its path forward. Following the climax of the US election on Wednesday, data from Dune Analytics shows a steep decline in Polymarket’s activity.
Daily active addresses and transaction volumes, which soared in the election lead-up, have notably dwindled as election-related betting winds down. For instance, Polymarket’s open interest, a key indicator of active betting engagement, dropped from $350 million to $268 million after the polls closed. Similarly, monthly new accounts have also dropped by over 41% between October and November.
Against this backdrop, Polymarket may need to diversify its market offerings or potentially embrace a new model to maintain user interest. This is considering election-related activity comprised the majority of the prediction market’s volume.
Rumors are circulating about a potential move toward a decentralized governance token, which could distribute control over Polymarket’s operations to its community. This shift would reduce the liability of the central authority by decentralizing decision-making, though it remains theoretical, with no clear timeline.
Read More: How To Use Polymarket In The United States: Step-by-Step Guide
Polymarket’s fast ascent and regulatory challenges highlight broader industry tensions between innovation and compliance. With election predictions no longer a draw and an impending ban in France, Polymarket’s future remains uncertain.
Its long-term viability may depend on how well it adapts to evolving regulatory landscapes and whether it can maintain popularity beyond election season peaks.
Disclaimer
In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
Market
XRP Price Ready to Rally? Signs Point to a Bullish Move
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Market
Solana (SOL) Rallies Strongly, Setting Sights on $200
Solana started a fresh increase above the $172 support zone. SOL price is rising and might soon aim for a move toward the $200 level.
- SOL price started a fresh increase after it settled above the $165 level against the US Dollar.
- The price is now trading above $172 and the 100-hourly simple moving average.
- There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $162 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
- The pair could continue to rise if it clears the $192 resistance zone.
Solana Price Starts Fresh Rally
Solana price formed a support base and started a fresh increase above the $162 level like Bitcoin and Ethereum. There was a strong move above the $165 and $172 resistance levels.
There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $162 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair. The price even cleared the $185 level. A high is formed at $192 and the price is now consolidating gains. It is trading above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $155 swing low to the $192 high.
Solana is now trading above $172 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $192 level. The next major resistance is near the $195 level.
The main resistance could be $200. A successful close above the $200 resistance level could set the pace for another steady increase. The next key resistance is $212. Any more gains might send the price toward the $220 level.
Another Dip in SOL?
If SOL fails to rise above the $192 resistance, it could start a downside correction. Initial support on the downside is near the $188 level. The first major support is near the $180 level.
A break below the $180 level might send the price toward the $172 zone or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $155 swing low to the $192 high. If there is a close below the $172 support, the price could decline toward the $165 support in the near term.
Technical Indicators
Hourly MACD – The MACD for SOL/USD is gaining pace in the bullish zone.
Hourly Hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for SOL/USD is above the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – $188 and $185.
Major Resistance Levels – $192 and $200.
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