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Why Altcoin Season May Be Delayed Till After Elections

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As the US Presidential Election draws near, Bitcoin’s dominance over the cryptocurrency market is rising. This potentially dampens hopes for an altcoin season.

Bitcoin’s dominance, measured by BTC.D, has climbed to its highest level since 2021. This surge coincides with significant capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and a relatively stagnant performance of many altcoins.

Bitcoin For the Win

Bitcoin dominance measures the coin’s market capitalization relative to the total market capitalization of all other cryptocurrencies. As of this writing, it sits at 59.77, its highest level since April 2021. 

When BTC.D climbs, Bitcoin’s share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is increasing relative to altcoins. BeInCrypto’s assessment of its key momentum indicators confirms the strengthening bullish bias toward the leading coin and the likelihood of extended dominance. 

Read more: Which Are the Best Altcoins To Invest in October 2024?

Bitcoin Dominance
Bitcoin Dominance. Source: TradingView

For example, readings from the BTC.D’s moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) show its MACD (blue) resting above its signal line (orange) as of this writing. 

This setup suggests that Bitcoin is currently seeing increasing strength within the crypto market, outpacing altcoins in terms of market cap share. It indicates that the current market conditions are less conducive for an altcoin season, with Bitcoin likely to outperform many of these assets in the near term.

BTC.D MACD
BTC.D MACD. Source: TradingView

Demand for Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has surged recently, highlighting strong interest in the leading cryptocurrency. In a recent report, digital asset research firm 10X Research indicated that rising BTC ETF demand could drive Bitcoin’s price to $100,000 by January 2025.

“Bitcoin spot ETFs purchased $4.1 billion in October alone— the highest volume since March 2024—with buy momentum showing no signs of slowing as all ETF buyers remain profitable. Last night, spot ETFs acquired an additional $830 million in Bitcoin, bringing the 5-day total to $2.1 billion. With ETF demand going parabolic, Bitcoin is set to follow suit. If this trend holds, our quant signal also projects a potential rally to $100,000 by the end of January 2025,” the research firm wrote. 

TOTAL2 Consolidates Within a Range

With capital flowing into Bitcoin ETFs, individual and institutional investors are more likely to prioritize BTC investments over less-established altcoins. As a result, less capital flows into the altcoin market reducing their price momentum and trading volumes.

TOTAL2 Price Analysis
TOTAL2 Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

This has played out as reflected by TOTAL2’s (the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin) sideways movements since early August. While BTC.D has rallied, TOTAL2 has consolidated within the $967 billion and $856 billion price range. 

This consolidation indicates that altcoin traders have been uncertain about the next direction prices will take. This has led to decreased volatility and trading volume, further delaying the altcoin season.

Read more: 11 Cryptos To Add To Your Portfolio Before Altcoin Season

Altcoin Season Index
Altcoin Season Index. Source: Blockchain Center

Moreover, the altcoin season commences when at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin over a three-month period. Recent data from Blockchain Center reveals that only 29% of these top altcoins have surpassed Bitcoin’s performance in the past 90 days — well below the 75% threshold required to declare an altcoin season officially.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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XRP Price Fate Hangs on $2.00—Major Move Incoming?

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Aayush Jindal, a luminary in the world of financial markets, whose expertise spans over 15 illustrious years in the realms of Forex and cryptocurrency trading. Renowned for his unparalleled proficiency in providing technical analysis, Aayush is a trusted advisor and senior market expert to investors worldwide, guiding them through the intricate landscapes of modern finance with his keen insights and astute chart analysis.

From a young age, Aayush exhibited a natural aptitude for deciphering complex systems and unraveling patterns. Fueled by an insatiable curiosity for understanding market dynamics, he embarked on a journey that would lead him to become one of the foremost authorities in the fields of Forex and crypto trading. With a meticulous eye for detail and an unwavering commitment to excellence, Aayush honed his craft over the years, mastering the art of technical analysis and chart interpretation.
As a software engineer, Aayush harnesses the power of technology to optimize trading strategies and develop innovative solutions for navigating the volatile waters of financial markets. His background in software engineering has equipped him with a unique skill set, enabling him to leverage cutting-edge tools and algorithms to gain a competitive edge in an ever-evolving landscape.

In addition to his roles in finance and technology, Aayush serves as the director of a prestigious IT company, where he spearheads initiatives aimed at driving digital innovation and transformation. Under his visionary leadership, the company has flourished, cementing its position as a leader in the tech industry and paving the way for groundbreaking advancements in software development and IT solutions.

Despite his demanding professional commitments, Aayush is a firm believer in the importance of work-life balance. An avid traveler and adventurer, he finds solace in exploring new destinations, immersing himself in different cultures, and forging lasting memories along the way. Whether he’s trekking through the Himalayas, diving in the azure waters of the Maldives, or experiencing the vibrant energy of bustling metropolises, Aayush embraces every opportunity to broaden his horizons and create unforgettable experiences.

Aayush’s journey to success is marked by a relentless pursuit of excellence and a steadfast commitment to continuous learning and growth. His academic achievements are a testament to his dedication and passion for excellence, having completed his software engineering with honors and excelling in every department.

At his core, Aayush is driven by a profound passion for analyzing markets and uncovering profitable opportunities amidst volatility. Whether he’s poring over price charts, identifying key support and resistance levels, or providing insightful analysis to his clients and followers, Aayush’s unwavering dedication to his craft sets him apart as a true industry leader and a beacon of inspiration to aspiring traders around the globe.

In a world where uncertainty reigns supreme, Aayush Jindal stands as a guiding light, illuminating the path to financial success with his unparalleled expertise, unwavering integrity, and boundless enthusiasm for the markets.



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Ethereum Price Weakens—Can Bulls Prevent a Major Breakdown?

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Ethereum price started another decline and traded below the $1,880 level. ETH is now consolidating and remains at risk of more losses.

  • Ethereum struggled to continue higher above the $2,000 resistance level.
  • The price is trading below $1,880 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
  • There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $1,820 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
  • The pair must clear the $1,820 and $1,880 resistance levels to start a decent increase.

Ethereum Price Dips Again

Ethereum price failed to continue higher above $2,100 and started another decline, like Bitcoin. ETH declined below the $1,920 and $1,880 support levels.

It tested the $1,765 zone. A low was formed at $1,767 and the price recently attempted a fresh upward move. There was a move above the $1,800 level but the price is still below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $2,033 swing high to the $1,767 low.

Ethereum price is now trading below $1,880 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $1,820 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD.

On the upside, the price seems to be facing hurdles near the $1,820 level. The next key resistance is near the $1,880 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $2,033 swing high to the $1,767 low. The first major resistance is near the $1,920 level.

Ethereum Price
Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

A clear move above the $1,920 resistance might send the price toward the $2,000 resistance. An upside break above the $2,000 resistance might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $2,050 resistance zone or even $2,120 in the near term.

More Losses In ETH?

If Ethereum fails to clear the $1,880 resistance, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $1,780 level. The first major support sits near the $1,765 zone.

A clear move below the $1,765 support might push the price toward the $1,720 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $1,680 support level in the near term. The next key support sits at $1,650.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACDThe MACD for ETH/USD is losing momentum in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSIThe RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 zone.

Major Support Level – $1,765

Major Resistance Level – $1,880



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Bitcoin Bears Tighten Grip—Where’s the Next Support?

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Bitcoin price started another decline below the $85,000 zone. BTC is now consolidating and might struggle to recover above the $83,500 zone.

  • Bitcoin started a fresh decline below the $83,500 support zone.
  • The price is trading below $83,200 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
  • There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $82,750 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair could start another decline if it stays below the $83,500 resistance zone.

Bitcoin Price Dips Further

Bitcoin price failed to remain above the $85,500 level. BTC started another decline and traded below the support area at $85,000. The bears gained strength for a move below the $83,500 support zone.

The price even declined below the $82,000 level. A low was formed at $81,586 and the price is now consolidating losses below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $83,500 swing high to the $81,586 swing low.

Bitcoin price is now trading below $82,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $82,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $82,750 level. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $82,750 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Bitcoin Price
Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The trend line is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $83,500 swing high to the $81,586 swing low. The next key resistance could be $83,500. A close above the $83,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $84,200 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $84,800 level or even $85,000.

Another Decline In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $83,500 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support on the downside is near the $81,800 level. The first major support is near the $81,500 level.

The next support is now near the $80,650 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $80,000 support in the near term. The main support sits at $78,500.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $81,500, followed by $80,650.

Major Resistance Levels – $82,750 and $83,500.



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