Market
Why. $45,000 Could Be Next
Amid growing volatility and downward pressure in the cryptocurrency market, a new Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction has surfaced. Digital asset investment firm 10x Research suggests that Bitcoin’s value could drop to $45,000.
In the firm’s report, Markus Thielen, Head of Research, outlines several factors supporting this forecast. BeInCrypto further explores this possibility by analyzing key on-chain metrics in its assessment of Bitcoin’s current outlook.
Key Reasons for the Adjustment in Bitcoin Forecast
Bitcoin price currently trades below $55,000 despite hitting a new all-time high of $73,750 in March. According to 10x Research, this significant correction was expected due to changes in Bitcoin’s active addresses and broader market decisions.
“Bitcoin addresses peaked in November 2023 and sharply declined after the first quarter of 2024. When the amount of Bitcoin held by short-term holders began to decrease in April, while long-term holders took advantage of high prices to exit, it suggested that a cycle top had been reached,” the research company explained.
BeInCrypto reviewed Bitcoin’s active addresses data and found the analysis to be accurate. In November 2023, active addresses totaled around 1.20 million, and by March, the figure still exceeded 1 million.
Read more: 7 Best Crypto Exchanges in the USA for Bitcoin (BTC) Trading
However, the number of active addresses has since fallen to 612,000, signaling that hundreds of thousands of participants have stopped engaging with the cryptocurrency. This sharp decline highlights reduced activity on the Bitcoin network, suggesting a weakening interest or participation in recent months.
Apart from that, the report mentioned the $1 billion Bitcoin ETF outflows this week as a bearish sign. It also pinpointed the weak US economy and massive futures liquidation as other reasons that could drive BTC down to $45,000.
Data from Glassnode shows that the Mayer Multiple seems to agree with the price decrease. Often used to identify speculative bubbles in Bitcoin, a Mayer Multiple reading above 1 typically signals a bullish market trend.
When the metric falls below this threshold, the cryptocurrency becomes more vulnerable to a notable decline. At press time, the Mayer Multiple stands at 0.8, and Bitcoin’s price remains below the 200-day EMA, indicating that BTC could face another drop below $50,000.
BTC Price Prediction: $50,000 Is Crucial
According to the weekly BTC/USD chart, traders began this month around the same price levels seen in November 2021, just before the Bitcoin bear market of 2022. After Bitcoin’s value declined toward the end of 2021, it dropped to $36,500 in January 2022 when it lost support at $50,000.
Currently, a similar support level exists around $50,000, and Bitcoin appears likely to test this level again. If this happens, BTC’s price could fall to $48,338, with a possibility of closing in on $45,000.
Read more: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030
Failure to bounce from this level might lead Bitcoin down toward $40,000. However, this outcome might change if the Mayer Multiple rises above 1, signaling a potential restart of a bull market, which could push Bitcoin beyond its previous all-time high.
Disclaimer
In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
Market
Bitcoin Price Advances Again: Can Bulls Push It Even Higher?
Bitcoin price is gaining pace above $75,000. BTC is rising and might aim for a move above the $77,000 resistance zone in the near term.
- Bitcoin started a fresh surge above the $74,500 zone.
- The price is trading above $74,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
- There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $75,450 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
- The pair could continue to rise above the $76,200 resistance zone.
Bitcoin Price Sets Another ATH
Bitcoin price started a fresh increase above the $74,500 level. BTC cleared the $75,000 resistance and traded to a new all-time high. It posted a high at $76,937 and is currently consolidating gains.
There was a minor decline below the $76,200 level. The price dipped below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $72,745 swing low to the $76,937 high. However, the price is still in a positive zone above the $75,000 level.
Bitcoin price is now trading above $75,200 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $75,450 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.
On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $76,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $76,200 level. A clear move above the $76,200 resistance might send the price higher. The next key resistance could be $78,000.
A close above the $78,000 resistance might initiate more gains. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $78,800 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $79,450 resistance level.
Are Dips Limited In BTC?
If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $76,200 resistance zone, it could continue to move down. Immediate support on the downside is near the $75,450 level and the trend line.
The first major support is near the $74,350 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $72,745 swing low to the $76,937 high. The next support is now near the $73,750 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $72,200 support in the near term.
Technical indicators:
Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – $75,450, followed by $74,350.
Major Resistance Levels – $76,000, and $76,200.
Market
Polymarket Faces Ban in France as US Election Betting Ends
According to a report from The Big Whale, the National Gaming Authority (ANJ), France’s gambling regulator, is preparing to block the prediction markets platform Polymarket.
Polymarket, the decentralized platform that allows users to bet on the outcome of political events, sports, and other occurrences using cryptocurrency, has gained popularity in recent months, especially with bets surrounding the US presidential election. More than $3.2 billion was reportedly wagered on the platform during this high-stakes period, with a record-breaking $294 million in volume on November 5 alone.
France Users May No Longer Access Polymarket
According to The Big Whale, a French website that covers the crypto industry, the ANJ’s impending ban comes after a French trader placed a $30 million bet on a Trump victory, reportedly attracting the regulator’s scrutiny.
The trader’s wager positioned him to make approximately $19 million in profits, a sum that has intensified concerns over Polymarket’s compliance with French gambling laws. A source close to the ANJ stated that despite Polymarket’s use of blockchain and cryptocurrency, its activities are akin to gambling, making it subject to restrictions under French law.
“We are aware of this site and we are currently examining its operation as well as its compliance with French gambling legislation,” The Big Whale reported, citing an ANJ spokesperson.
Read more: What is Polymarket? A Guide to The Popular Prediction Market
Legal expert William O’Rorke from ORWL Avocats explained that although Polymarket does not specifically target French users, its activities fall squarely under gambling regulations.
“Polymarket involves betting money on uncertain outcomes, which aligns with the legal definition of gambling,” O’Rorke noted.
Against this backdrop, the ANJ is well within its mandate to block the platform’s access in France. Accordingly, the French regulator may enforce the ban by blocking Polymarket’s domain name in France. It amy also pressure third-party players, like media outlets and online directories, to limit access to Polymarket links.
However, French users may still circumvent this by using virtual private networks (VPNs). This is because Polymarket’s crypto-based infrastructure allows for relatively anonymous participation.
France’s looming ban is not the first regulatory roadblock Polymarket has encountered. In 2022, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined Polymarket $1.4 million for failing to register as a designated contract market. The CFTC also challenged Kalshi’s operations due to questions about betting on political events.
Polymarket’s Fate After US Elections
Meanwhile, the US election was a significant catalyst for Polymarket. It drove the platform to new heights in user engagement and bet volume. Polymarket’s election-related markets have been featured on major financial platforms, including Bloomberg, highlighting the platform’s appeal to mainstream finance.
As BeInCrypto reported, Polymarket’s election betting topped $3 billion, reflecting unprecedented participation. The platform, however, faces a crossroads in its path forward. Following the climax of the US election on Wednesday, data from Dune Analytics shows a steep decline in Polymarket’s activity.
Daily active addresses and transaction volumes, which soared in the election lead-up, have notably dwindled as election-related betting winds down. For instance, Polymarket’s open interest, a key indicator of active betting engagement, dropped from $350 million to $268 million after the polls closed. Similarly, monthly new accounts have also dropped by over 41% between October and November.
Against this backdrop, Polymarket may need to diversify its market offerings or potentially embrace a new model to maintain user interest. This is considering election-related activity comprised the majority of the prediction market’s volume.
Rumors are circulating about a potential move toward a decentralized governance token, which could distribute control over Polymarket’s operations to its community. This shift would reduce the liability of the central authority by decentralizing decision-making, though it remains theoretical, with no clear timeline.
Read More: How To Use Polymarket In The United States: Step-by-Step Guide
Polymarket’s fast ascent and regulatory challenges highlight broader industry tensions between innovation and compliance. With election predictions no longer a draw and an impending ban in France, Polymarket’s future remains uncertain.
Its long-term viability may depend on how well it adapts to evolving regulatory landscapes and whether it can maintain popularity beyond election season peaks.
Disclaimer
In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
Market
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