Market
What’s Next for Crypto Prices?
Things are getting quiet — really quiet — raising concerns about whether this is still a bull market for the highly volatile crypto ecosystem. While this answer lies in Bitcoin (BTC) performance and altcoin prices, historical data and recent developments can predict the point at which the cycle is.
In this analysis, BeInCrypto examines crucial on-chain metrics that suggest the bull market started about two years ago and could have reached 50% completion.
History Shows the Cycle Is Way Beyond Bears
The year 2022 was a particularly difficult time for the crypto market, which had previously thrived in 2021. The industry saw major firms like FTX, Celsius, and Three Arrows Capital (3AC) collapse, triggering widespread bankruptcies and causing significant declines in cryptocurrency prices.
By November 21, 2022, Bitcoin (BTC) had plunged to $15,409, Ethereum (ETH) was trading at $1,065, BNB at $248.60, and Solana (SOL) had dropped to $7.70. These levels were the lowest these assets had seen in nearly two years.
Given this downturn, it seems that November 2022 marked the bottom of the bear market. The strong price recovery in early 2023 supports the idea that January was the start of a new bull cycle. Historically, crypto market cycles span roughly three years (1,047 to 1,278 days). Based on this timeframe, the current cycle is around 640 days in, indicating that the bull market is approximately halfway through.
Notably, the Bitcoin halving, which typically drives massive price increases, occurred earlier this year. Interestingly, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high even before the halving, driven largely by the approval of spot ETFs. Despite the recent corrections and periods of consolidation, on-chain metrics suggest that BTC has not yet reached the peak of this cycle. This leaves room for potential further growth as the bull market progresses.
As seen above, the post-halving rally began in the fourth quarter (Q4) of each halving year. Thus, if we go by that recurrence, then a substantial upswing could start around October. Interestingly, CryptoQuant’s CEO, Ki Young Ju, also seems to agree with the sentiment.
“In the last Bitcoin halving cycle, the bull rally began in Q4. Whales won’t let Q4 be boring with a flat YoY performance,” Young Ju highlighted on X.
Bitcoin, ETH, and Altcoin Prices Still Have Room to Grow
Historically, Bitcoin’s price has at least doubled during each halving year. In 2012, BTC’s price surged by 2.52x, followed by a 2.26x increase in 2016, and a 4.05x jump in 2020. At the start of 2024, Bitcoin was trading around $42,208. Even after reaching $73,750 in March, the data suggests the bull cycle is not yet over.
To match past halving performances, Bitcoin’s price would need to rise further, targeting between $80,000 and $85,000 before this cycle peaks. The historical trends indicate room for more growth in 2024.
Now, to other things — starting with ETH. During the 2021 bull run, the second most valuable cryptocurrency gave BTC a run for its money, outperforming it for an extended period.
Despite the spot Ethereum ETF approval, ETH hasn’t mirrored its performance from three years ago. On June 20, Ethereum’s dominance was 18.80%. As of now, it has dropped to 15%, signaling that the altcoin has yet to replicate its impressive 2021 run.
Read more: Bitcoin Halving History: Everything You Need To Know
Bitcoin dominance, on the other hand, is over 57%. Furthermore, ETH’s underwhelming performance has also been attributed to the delay in this cycle’s altcoin season.
It is worth noting that the cryptocurrency’s rally was one of the major factors that drove many other altcoins to incredible peaks last time. But recently, BNB appears to be the only top altcoin from the last cycle that had surpassed its previous all-time high.
Meme Coins, Celebs Already Tasted the Bull Market
While altcoins continue to underperform, two notable events suggest that this bull market might be halfway through. The first one is the incredible returns from meme coins. Last time, several meme coins on Ethereum and the Binance Smart Chain produced many out-of-the-blue millionaires.
This time, the blockchains offering such seem to be Solana and, most recently, Justin Sun-led Tron. Second on the list is the involvement of celebrities. In 2021, stars like Logan Paul, Paris Hilton, and Snoop Dogg, among others, bought into the NFT hype.
Meanwhile, the NFT craze appears to be over, but celebrities have also been involved with the market. People like Andrew Tate and Iggy Azalea have launched DADDY and MOTHER meme coins, respectively.
Another metric to consider for gauging the crypto bull market is retail investor interest. Whenever retail investor interest declines, it suggests the bull market is ongoing but hasn’t peaked.
Google Trends data shows searches for “cryptocurrency” hit their highest level in 2021, scoring a perfect 100. However, searches have been consistently lower this year, signaling reduced retail activity.
A bull market typically sees a surge in retail investors as they drive the demand. The current dip in interest suggests that this cycle hasn’t reached its peak yet. The lack of widespread retail FOMO points to more potential upside as the cycle matures.
Long-Term Data Shows the Uptrend Might Kick Off Again
Additionally, Glassnode-provided Long-Term Holder Realized Profit/Loss Ratio comes into play. As the name suggests, this metric tracks the behavior of long-term holders, telling if they are booking profits or enduring losses.
As of this writing, this metric has declined from its peak in March, indicating that holders have reduced profit-taking activity. This fall is similar to the 2021 cycle when Bitcoin’s price went down before restarting another uptrend.
Read more: 7 Must-Have Cryptocurrencies for Your Portfolio Before the Next Bull Run
Therefore, if past performances impact future trends, then BTC, as well as other cryptos, might reach new highs. The on-chain analytic platform also agrees in its report dated August 20.
“Notably, during the March 2024 ATH, this metric reached a similar altitude to prior market tops. In both the 2013 and 2021 cycles, the metric declined to similar levels prior to resuming an uptrend in price,” Glassnode stated.
In summary, while some investors remain skeptical about the current market conditions, several indicators point to this still being a bull market despite recent volatility. The analysis suggests that prices may continue to rise, pushing Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other altcoins to new highs and fueling further momentum in this cycle.
However, caution is still advised. Heightened volatility and periodic drawdowns can lead to sudden price shifts. If realized losses persist and dominate the market, the current cycle could transition into a bear phase.
Disclaimer
In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
Market
Solana Hits New All-Time High After 3 Years
On Friday, Solana (SOL) soared to a new all-time high (ATH), now trading at approximately $261. This breakthrough surpasses its previous peak set in November 2021.
Solana’s rise to a new ATH marks an increase of over 32 times from its lows recorded in December 2022.
Solana Hits All-Time High as Gary Gensler Plans Resignation
Solana’s path to this new high has been anything but smooth. After reaching its previous high in 2021, the platform faced a downturn in 2022 amid a broader crypto bear market, further exacerbated by technical issues and network downtimes.
The collapse of FTX in November 2022 pushed Solana’s price down to around $8.
However, Solana has since made a remarkable recovery, increasing more than 32-fold from its low. Now, Solana enthusiasts believe that SOL could eventually outpace Ethereum (ETH) in market capitalization.
“Solana has been at an all-time high by market cap for a while actually. Now, we’re finally in price discovery. The flippening is coming,” Birch, the founder of PathCrypto, said.
The surge in Solana’s market value coincides with the news of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler’s planned resignation, slated for January 20, 2025, as Donald Trump assumes office.
Known for his strict regulatory stance on cryptocurrencies, Gensler’s departure signals a potential shift toward a more crypto-friendly administration. Consequently, this political change is stoking speculations about the approval of a Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF). According to Fox Business journalist Eleanor Terrett, the SEC has begun engaging with issuers to explore the possibility of a Solana ETF.
“Talks between SEC staff and issuers looking to launch a Solana spot ETF are “progressing” with the SEC now engaging on S-1 applications. Recent engagement from staff, coupled with the incoming pro-crypto administration, is sparking a renewed sense of optimism that a Solana ETF could be approved sometime in 2025,” Terrett claimed.
Previous efforts to launch a Solana ETF were stalled by regulatory roadblocks, often stopping early in the process. However, the changing political environment and the SEC’s increased openness have reignited hopes within the crypto community. Recent filings for a Solana ETF by Canary Capital and BitWise reflect a growing interest and anticipation for regulatory approval.
Despite these encouraging developments, the odds of a Solana ETF approval in 2024 remain low, with Polymarket estimates placing it at around 4%.
Meanwhile, the crypto community is also closely watching Bitcoin as it approaches the highly anticipated $100,000 mark. On Friday, Bitcoin recorded a new high of about $99,300. This milestone is viewed as a pivotal moment for Bitcoin and could impact other cryptocurrencies, including Solana.
Disclaimer
In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
Market
XRP Price 25% Rally: Breaking Barriers and Surpassing Odds
XRP price rallied above the $1.15 and $1.20 resistance levels. The price is up over 25% and might rise further above the $1.420 resistance.
- XRP price started a fresh surge above the $1.20 resistance level.
- The price is now trading above $1.250 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
- There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $1.1400 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
- The pair is up over 25% and it seems like the bulls are not done yet.
XRP Price Eyes Steady Increase
XRP price formed a base above $1.050 and started a fresh increase. There was a move above the $1.150 and $1.20 resistance levels. It even pumped above the $1.25 level, beating Ethereum and Bitcoin in the past two sessions.
There was also a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $1.1400 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. A high was formed at $1.4161 and the price is now consolidating gains. It is trading above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1.0649 swing low to the $1.4161 high.
The price is now trading above $1.30 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price might face resistance near the $1.400 level. The first major resistance is near the $1.420 level. The next key resistance could be $1.450.
A clear move above the $1.450 resistance might send the price toward the $1.50 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $1.550 resistance or even $1.620 in the near term. The next major hurdle for the bulls might be $1.750 or $1.80.
Are Dips Supported?
If XRP fails to clear the $1.420 resistance zone, it could start a downside correction. Initial support on the downside is near the $1.3350 level. The next major support is near the $1.2850 level.
If there is a downside break and a close below the $1.2850 level, the price might continue to decline toward the $1.240 support or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1.0649 swing low to the $1.4161 high in the near term. The next major support sits near the $1.20 zone.
Technical Indicators
Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now above the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – $1.3350 and $1.2850.
Major Resistance Levels – $1.4000 and $1.4200.
Market
WisdomTree Europe Launches XRP ETP
ETF issuer WisdomTree’s European division just announced a new ETP based on XRP. This product is currently available in four EU countries, which has led XRP’s price to jump slightly.
ETPs are a common issuer strategy to earn revenue without ETF approval, but Europe will not necessarily approve one even if the US does so.
WisdomTree’s XRP ETP
WisdomTree, one of the Bitcoin ETF issuers in the US, announced that its European branch is offering an exchange-traded product (ETP) based on XRP. This new product is currently available in Germany, Switzerland, France, and the Netherlands. A growing number of issuers have filed for an XRP ETF, but WisdomTree is taking a slightly different tack.
“The WisdomTree Physical XRP ETP offers a simple, secure, and low-cost way to gain exposure to XRP, one of the largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. Backed 100% by XRP, XRPW is the lowest-priced XRP ETP in Europe, providing direct spot price exposure,” the announcement claimed.
The possibility of an official XRP ETF is growing with the current bull market, and Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse considers it “inevitable.” Still, it hasn’t happened yet, and ETP offerings allow issuers to somewhat address customers’ requirements. BitWise, which has also filed for an XRP ETF in the US, recently acquired a European ETP issuer to enter the same market.
WisdomTree, however, is no stranger to this market strategy. In May this year, it won approval to offer ETPs based on Bitcoin and Ethereum to British investors.
The UK has not yet approved a full ETF for either of these assets, but WisdomTree still gained market access. Even a fraction of the XRP market could also prove lucrative; the asset’s value spiked today.
WisdomTree Europe’s strategy page does not describe any further actions upon full approval. Even if the US approves an XRP ETF under the SEC’s new leadership, that won’t necessarily benefit WisdomTree’s European branch. For now, these ETPs built on XRP will have to suffice for this market.
Disclaimer
In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
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