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What’s Next for Crypto Prices?

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Things are getting quiet — really quiet — raising concerns about whether this is still a bull market for the highly volatile crypto ecosystem. While this answer lies in Bitcoin (BTC) performance and altcoin prices, historical data and recent developments can predict the point at which the cycle is.

In this analysis, BeInCrypto examines crucial on-chain metrics that suggest the bull market started about two years ago and could have reached 50% completion.

History Shows the Cycle Is Way Beyond Bears

The year 2022 was a particularly difficult time for the crypto market, which had previously thrived in 2021. The industry saw major firms like FTX, Celsius, and Three Arrows Capital (3AC) collapse, triggering widespread bankruptcies and causing significant declines in cryptocurrency prices.

By November 21, 2022, Bitcoin (BTC) had plunged to $15,409, Ethereum (ETH) was trading at $1,065, BNB at $248.60, and Solana (SOL) had dropped to $7.70. These levels were the lowest these assets had seen in nearly two years.

Given this downturn, it seems that November 2022 marked the bottom of the bear market. The strong price recovery in early 2023 supports the idea that January was the start of a new bull cycle. Historically, crypto market cycles span roughly three years (1,047 to 1,278 days). Based on this timeframe, the current cycle is around 640 days in, indicating that the bull market is approximately halfway through.

Notably, the Bitcoin halving, which typically drives massive price increases, occurred earlier this year. Interestingly, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high even before the halving, driven largely by the approval of spot ETFs. Despite the recent corrections and periods of consolidation, on-chain metrics suggest that BTC has not yet reached the peak of this cycle. This leaves room for potential further growth as the bull market progresses.

Bitcoin Cumulative Return on Halving Years.
Bitcoin Cumulative Return on Halving Years. Source: CryptoQuant

As seen above, the post-halving rally began in the fourth quarter (Q4) of each halving year. Thus, if we go by that recurrence, then a substantial upswing could start around October. Interestingly, CryptoQuant’s CEO, Ki Young Ju, also seems to agree with the sentiment.

“In the last Bitcoin halving cycle, the bull rally began in Q4. Whales won’t let Q4 be boring with a flat YoY performance,”  Young Ju highlighted on X.

Bitcoin, ETH, and Altcoin Prices Still Have Room to Grow

Historically, Bitcoin’s price has at least doubled during each halving year. In 2012, BTC’s price surged by 2.52x, followed by a 2.26x increase in 2016, and a 4.05x jump in 2020. At the start of 2024, Bitcoin was trading around $42,208. Even after reaching $73,750 in March, the data suggests the bull cycle is not yet over.

To match past halving performances, Bitcoin’s price would need to rise further, targeting between $80,000 and $85,000 before this cycle peaks. The historical trends indicate room for more growth in 2024.

Now, to other things — starting with ETH. During the 2021 bull run, the second most valuable cryptocurrency gave BTC a run for its money, outperforming it for an extended period. 

Despite the spot Ethereum ETF approval, ETH hasn’t mirrored its performance from three years ago. On June 20, Ethereum’s dominance was 18.80%. As of now, it has dropped to 15%, signaling that the altcoin has yet to replicate its impressive 2021 run.

Read more: Bitcoin Halving History: Everything You Need To Know

Bitcoin vs. Ethereum Dominance.
Bitcoin vs. Ethereum Dominance. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin dominance, on the other hand, is over 57%. Furthermore, ETH’s underwhelming performance has also been attributed to the delay in this cycle’s altcoin season

It is worth noting that the cryptocurrency’s rally was one of the major factors that drove many other altcoins to incredible peaks last time. But recently, BNB appears to be the only top altcoin from the last cycle that had surpassed its previous all-time high.

Binance Coin All-Time High.
Binance Coin All-Time High. Source: TradingView

Meme Coins, Celebs Already Tasted the Bull Market

While altcoins continue to underperform, two notable events suggest that this bull market might be halfway through. The first one is the incredible returns from meme coins. Last time, several meme coins on Ethereum and the Binance Smart Chain produced many out-of-the-blue millionaires.

This time, the blockchains offering such seem to be Solana and, most recently, Justin Sun-led Tron. Second on the list is the involvement of celebrities. In 2021, stars like Logan Paul, Paris Hilton, and Snoop Dogg, among others, bought into the NFT hype.

Meanwhile, the NFT craze appears to be over, but celebrities have also been involved with the market. People like Andrew Tate and Iggy Azalea have launched DADDY and MOTHER meme coins, respectively. 

Cryptocurrency Search Results.
Cryptocurrency Search Results. Source: Google Trends

Another metric to consider for gauging the crypto bull market is retail investor interest. Whenever retail investor interest declines, it suggests the bull market is ongoing but hasn’t peaked.

Google Trends data shows searches for “cryptocurrency” hit their highest level in 2021, scoring a perfect 100. However, searches have been consistently lower this year, signaling reduced retail activity.

A bull market typically sees a surge in retail investors as they drive the demand. The current dip in interest suggests that this cycle hasn’t reached its peak yet. The lack of widespread retail FOMO points to more potential upside as the cycle matures.

Long-Term Data Shows the Uptrend Might Kick Off Again

Additionally, Glassnode-provided Long-Term Holder Realized Profit/Loss Ratio comes into play. As the name suggests, this metric tracks the behavior of long-term holders, telling if they are booking profits or enduring losses.

As of this writing, this metric has declined from its peak in March, indicating that holders have reduced profit-taking activity. This fall is similar to the 2021 cycle when Bitcoin’s price went down before restarting another uptrend. 

Read more: 7 Must-Have Cryptocurrencies for Your Portfolio Before the Next Bull Run

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Realized Profit/Loss Ratio.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Realized Profit/Loss Ratio. Source: Glassnode

Therefore, if past performances impact future trends, then BTC, as well as other cryptos, might reach new highs. The on-chain analytic platform also agrees in its report dated August 20.

“Notably, during the March 2024 ATH, this metric reached a similar altitude to prior market tops. In both the 2013 and 2021 cycles, the metric declined to similar levels prior to resuming an uptrend in price,” Glassnode stated.

In summary, while some investors remain skeptical about the current market conditions, several indicators point to this still being a bull market despite recent volatility. The analysis suggests that prices may continue to rise, pushing Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other altcoins to new highs and fueling further momentum in this cycle.

However, caution is still advised. Heightened volatility and periodic drawdowns can lead to sudden price shifts. If realized losses persist and dominate the market, the current cycle could transition into a bear phase.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Dogecoin Price Suffers 25% Crash, But Here’s How It Can Recover

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Dogecoin has suffered a significant downturn, dropping nearly 25% in the past week and reaching a two-month low. The recent price decline has weakened investor confidence, leaving DOGE vulnerable to further corrections. 

While bearish sentiment dominates, there is possible scope for recovery if key market conditions align in favor of buyers.  

Dogecoin Investors Have A Shot

The weighted sentiment for Dogecoin has entered negative territory as skepticism grows among investors. The ongoing decline and lack of a meaningful recovery have contributed to bearish outlooks.

Without a strong upward push, DOGE holders may continue exiting their positions, further increasing selling pressure and slowing any potential rebound.  

As uncertainty rises, liquidity and active addresses could decline, making it difficult for DOGE to sustain buying momentum. Historically, prolonged periods of negative sentiment have resulted in lower network participation.

If this trend persists, Dogecoin may struggle to recover in the short term, keeping price action constrained under key resistance levels.  

Dogecoin Weighted Sentiment
Dogecoin Weighted Sentiment. Source: Santiment

The broader market outlook for Dogecoin suggests a potential buying opportunity, as indicated by the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. Currently sitting at -23%, the metric is below the historical opportunity zone, which ranges between -9% and -21%. In past cycles, DOGE has rebounded from these levels.  

Investors seeking to accumulate at lower prices could take advantage of current conditions, potentially driving DOGE’s price higher. If accumulation increases, the meme coin may experience a gradual recovery.

Dogecoin MVRV Ratio.
Dogecoin MVRV Ratio. Source: Santiment

DOGE Price Prediction: Breaching Barriers

Dogecoin is trading at $0.248, marking a 25% crash over the past week. If the bearish pressure continues, the price could drop further toward $0.220, extending recent losses.

The ability to maintain support at this level will be crucial in determining whether DOGE can stabilize.  

The current market signals remain mixed, suggesting that DOGE may consolidate between $0.220 and $0.268. Without a breakout, price movement could remain stagnant within this range. 

Dogecoin Price Analysis.
Dogecoin Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

For Dogecoin to regain lost ground, it must breach the $0.268 resistance level. Successfully flipping this barrier into support would open the door for a rally toward $0.311.

If achieved, this move would invalidate the bearish outlook and help DOGE recover a portion of its recent losses.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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XRP Price is Vulnerable to Further Correction Below $2 in February

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XRP has faced increasing selling pressure as bearish market conditions have pushed the altcoin to a monthly low. Investors looking for a recovery may be disappointed, as the altcoin remains vulnerable to further declines. 

Weak market participation and negative momentum are signaling the potential for additional losses in the near term.  

XRP Investors Are Skeptical

The Price Daily Active Addresses (DAA) Divergence indicator is currently flashing a sell signal. This bearish signal stems from a combination of falling prices and declining investor participation.

With fewer active addresses interacting with the network, buying momentum appears to be weakening, making XRP vulnerable to continued downside movement.  

As the drawdown continues, investors are stepping back, further dampening buying interest. If this trend persists, it could accelerate XRP’s decline. 

XRP Price DAA Divergence
XRP Price DAA Divergence. Source: Santiment

XRP’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to a three-month low, reinforcing the strong bearish momentum. The RSI, which measures market strength, indicates that selling pressure is intensifying.

If this trend continues, XRP could soon enter the oversold zone, further limiting any chances of an immediate rebound.  

A dip into the oversold territory typically suggests that an asset is undervalued, which can sometimes trigger a price recovery. However, XRP’s historical performance indicates that prolonged bearish conditions could extend losses before any meaningful reversal.

XRP RSI
XRP RSI. Source: TradingView

XRP Price Prediction: Bouncing Back Is The Key

XRP is currently trading at $2.37, holding above its critical support level of $2.33. The cryptocurrency has been on a consistent decline since the beginning of the month.

Despite temporary stabilization, bearish indicators suggest that XRP may struggle to recover without a significant shift in market momentum.  

The ongoing downward trend suggests that a further decline is likely. If XRP loses its $2.33 support, the price could drop to $1.94, deepening investor losses. A break below this level would confirm extended bearish control, making recovery even more challenging in the near future.  

XRP Price Analysis
XRP Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, a bounce off $2.33 could enable XRP price to reclaim the $2.70 resistance. If the altcoin successfully flips this level into support, it would invalidate the bearish outlook.

Such a move could restore investor confidence and open the door for a potential recovery in the coming weeks.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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SEC Holds Off on Ethereum ETF Options Decision

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The SEC has postponed its decision on approving options trading for Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

The regulator has extended its review period by 60 days, setting April 9 as the new deadline.

SEC Delays Ethereum ETF Options Approval for the Third Time

On February 7, the SEC announced another delay in determining whether Ethereum ETFs can trade options.

This marks the third extension after previous deferrals in September and November 2024. The agency cited that it needs more time to assess the potential impact on the market and gather public input, opening a 21-day window for comments.

“The Commission is extending the time period for approving or disapproving the proposed rule change for an additional 60 days. The Commission finds it appropriate to designate a longer period within which to issue an order approving or disapproving the proposed rule change so that it has sufficient time to consider the proposed rule change and the issues raised therein,” the SEC stated.

The delay affects applications from several major firms, including Bitwise, Grayscale, Ethereum Mini Trust, and BlackRock. The SEC emphasized that the extension allows for a more comprehensive review before making a final decision.

This decision follows the regulator’s earlier request for public comments on a proposal by Cboe BZX Exchange Inc., which was submitted on behalf of Fidelity. The proposal seeks approval to list and trade options tied to Fidelity’s spot Ethereum ETF.

Options contracts provide traders with the right—but not the obligation—to buy or sell an asset at a specific price within a set timeframe. These financial instruments play a crucial role in risk management and price speculation.

Analysts believe that the introduction of Ethereum ETF options could accelerate institutional adoption and enhance market efficiency. Notably, a similar regulatory framework already applies to Bitcoin ETFs and commodity-backed assets like gold.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has suggested that while approval seems likely, the delay may be linked to ongoing leadership changes at the SEC.

“SEC punting on spot Ether ETF options. I wouldn’t read too much into it, can’t imagine they don’t get approved eventually, likely waiting until Atkins is confirmed before moving on stuff,” Balchunas stated.

Former Commissioner Paul Atkins, nominated by Donald Trump to replace Gary Gensler, is awaiting Senate confirmation. His appointment is widely viewed as a potential shift toward a more crypto-friendly regulatory approach.

Ethereum ETFs Daily Flows.
Ethereum ETFs Daily Flows. Source: SoSoValue

Despite ongoing uncertainty, demand for spot Ethereum ETFs continues to grow. Data from SoSo Value indicates that these funds have experienced five consecutive days of net inflows, pushing total investments beyond $3 billion since their introduction.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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