Market
What to Expect From Bitcoin (BTC) in September
The Bitcoin (BTC) price was moderately disappointing in August, following the drop at the beginning and end of the month.
The broader outlook for the king crypto asset is still bearish, but certain macro-financial developments could alter this outcome.
Up Next for Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s price is hovering under $60,000 at the moment after noting a 7.5% decline over the last week. The coming month could continue this streak until “Uptober” arrives when the investors expect BTC’s recovery to resume.
“September is a historically negative month for Bitcoin, as data shows it has an average value depletion rate of 6.56%. Thus far this month, the investor sentiment around Bitcoin has been negative as the coin has traded between $49,000 and $66,000,” Innokenty Isers, Founder and CEO at Paybis, told BeInCrypto.
However, Isers also factored in the potential for a rate cut, which the macro-financial market highly anticipates.
“Should the Feds cut the interest rate in September, it might help Bitcoin re-write its negative history. This is because rate cuts generally lead to excessive US Dollar flow in the economy. This reduces the Dollar’s purchasing power, further strengthening the outlook of Bitcoin as a store of value. Many institutional investors are already proving this point with massive Bitcoin accumulations. If the Fed’s policies weaken the dollar, switching to risk assets with higher growth potential might be inevitable,” Isers explained.
This outcome falls in line with the macro Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio’s position. The MVRV ratio assesses investor profit and loss. Currently, Bitcoin’s 90-day MVRV stands at -4.8%, indicating profitability and possible buying pressure.
Historically, Bitcoin MVRV between -2% and -12% have signaled the start of recoveries and rallies. These instances were noted in mid-June 2023, early October 2023, and more recently at the beginning of July this year.
Read more: What Happened at the Last Bitcoin Halving? Predictions for 2024
Since investors tend to capitalize on the low prices, they move to add BTC to their wallets during such instances, marking -2% to -12% as an accumulation opportunity zone. If history repeats itself, BTC would be on track to note an uptick and prepare for a significant increase towards the end of the month.
BTC Price Prediction: Rise Ahead but Not a Breakout
There are two outcomes for Bitcoin’s price in September. The first is a more practical approach based on recent cues, which suggest BTC will remain under $68,300. This barrier has kept the crypto king from breaking out multiple times and considering the bearish conditions, this could happen again.
The second outcome is a breakout from the descending broadening wedge above $68,300. In effect since early March, this pattern suggests a break out could result in a 22% rise. While this is not likely, BTC could establish a new all-time high above $73,800.
Read more: Bitcoin Halving History: Everything You Need To Know
For the same, the aforementioned factors of accumulation and interest rate cut must occur, and only a rise above $70,000 would confirm this bullish outcome.
However, if Bitcoin’s price fails to breach even $65,000, consolidation under this barrier and above $57,040 is likely. This could invalidate the bullish thesis, delaying BTC’s rally to early or mid-October.
Disclaimer
In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
Market
Polymarket Faces Ban in France as US Election Betting Ends
According to a report from The Big Whale, the National Gaming Authority (ANJ), France’s gambling regulator, is preparing to block the prediction markets platform Polymarket.
Polymarket, the decentralized platform that allows users to bet on the outcome of political events, sports, and other occurrences using cryptocurrency, has gained popularity in recent months, especially with bets surrounding the US presidential election. More than $3.2 billion was reportedly wagered on the platform during this high-stakes period, with a record-breaking $294 million in volume on November 5 alone.
France Users May No Longer Access Polymarket
According to The Big Whale, a French website that covers the crypto industry, the ANJ’s impending ban comes after a French trader placed a $30 million bet on a Trump victory, reportedly attracting the regulator’s scrutiny.
The trader’s wager positioned him to make approximately $19 million in profits, a sum that has intensified concerns over Polymarket’s compliance with French gambling laws. A source close to the ANJ stated that despite Polymarket’s use of blockchain and cryptocurrency, its activities are akin to gambling, making it subject to restrictions under French law.
“We are aware of this site and we are currently examining its operation as well as its compliance with French gambling legislation,” The Big Whale reported, citing an ANJ spokesperson.
Read more: What is Polymarket? A Guide to The Popular Prediction Market
Legal expert William O’Rorke from ORWL Avocats explained that although Polymarket does not specifically target French users, its activities fall squarely under gambling regulations.
“Polymarket involves betting money on uncertain outcomes, which aligns with the legal definition of gambling,” O’Rorke noted.
Against this backdrop, the ANJ is well within its mandate to block the platform’s access in France. Accordingly, the French regulator may enforce the ban by blocking Polymarket’s domain name in France. It amy also pressure third-party players, like media outlets and online directories, to limit access to Polymarket links.
However, French users may still circumvent this by using virtual private networks (VPNs). This is because Polymarket’s crypto-based infrastructure allows for relatively anonymous participation.
France’s looming ban is not the first regulatory roadblock Polymarket has encountered. In 2022, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined Polymarket $1.4 million for failing to register as a designated contract market. The CFTC also challenged Kalshi’s operations due to questions about betting on political events.
Polymarket’s Fate After US Elections
Meanwhile, the US election was a significant catalyst for Polymarket. It drove the platform to new heights in user engagement and bet volume. Polymarket’s election-related markets have been featured on major financial platforms, including Bloomberg, highlighting the platform’s appeal to mainstream finance.
As BeInCrypto reported, Polymarket’s election betting topped $3 billion, reflecting unprecedented participation. The platform, however, faces a crossroads in its path forward. Following the climax of the US election on Wednesday, data from Dune Analytics shows a steep decline in Polymarket’s activity.
Daily active addresses and transaction volumes, which soared in the election lead-up, have notably dwindled as election-related betting winds down. For instance, Polymarket’s open interest, a key indicator of active betting engagement, dropped from $350 million to $268 million after the polls closed. Similarly, monthly new accounts have also dropped by over 41% between October and November.
Against this backdrop, Polymarket may need to diversify its market offerings or potentially embrace a new model to maintain user interest. This is considering election-related activity comprised the majority of the prediction market’s volume.
Rumors are circulating about a potential move toward a decentralized governance token, which could distribute control over Polymarket’s operations to its community. This shift would reduce the liability of the central authority by decentralizing decision-making, though it remains theoretical, with no clear timeline.
Read More: How To Use Polymarket In The United States: Step-by-Step Guide
Polymarket’s fast ascent and regulatory challenges highlight broader industry tensions between innovation and compliance. With election predictions no longer a draw and an impending ban in France, Polymarket’s future remains uncertain.
Its long-term viability may depend on how well it adapts to evolving regulatory landscapes and whether it can maintain popularity beyond election season peaks.
Disclaimer
In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
Market
XRP Price Ready to Rally? Signs Point to a Bullish Move
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Market
Solana (SOL) Rallies Strongly, Setting Sights on $200
Solana started a fresh increase above the $172 support zone. SOL price is rising and might soon aim for a move toward the $200 level.
- SOL price started a fresh increase after it settled above the $165 level against the US Dollar.
- The price is now trading above $172 and the 100-hourly simple moving average.
- There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $162 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
- The pair could continue to rise if it clears the $192 resistance zone.
Solana Price Starts Fresh Rally
Solana price formed a support base and started a fresh increase above the $162 level like Bitcoin and Ethereum. There was a strong move above the $165 and $172 resistance levels.
There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $162 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair. The price even cleared the $185 level. A high is formed at $192 and the price is now consolidating gains. It is trading above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $155 swing low to the $192 high.
Solana is now trading above $172 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $192 level. The next major resistance is near the $195 level.
The main resistance could be $200. A successful close above the $200 resistance level could set the pace for another steady increase. The next key resistance is $212. Any more gains might send the price toward the $220 level.
Another Dip in SOL?
If SOL fails to rise above the $192 resistance, it could start a downside correction. Initial support on the downside is near the $188 level. The first major support is near the $180 level.
A break below the $180 level might send the price toward the $172 zone or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $155 swing low to the $192 high. If there is a close below the $172 support, the price could decline toward the $165 support in the near term.
Technical Indicators
Hourly MACD – The MACD for SOL/USD is gaining pace in the bullish zone.
Hourly Hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for SOL/USD is above the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – $188 and $185.
Major Resistance Levels – $192 and $200.
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