President Trump recently announced a prisoner exchange with Russia, trading BTC-e founder Alexander Vinnik for an American school teacher. Although Trump recently pardoned Ross Ulbricht, this deal does not look like a favor to the crypto community.

Specifically, Vinnik pled guilty to $14 million fraud in Russia and is likely to face further incarceration in his home country. Trump has helped soothe the pace of crypto crackdowns, but this policy has its limits.

Trump Trades Vinnik For Schoolteacher

Alexander Vinnik has been through a lot since his arrest in 2017. In 2011, he founded BTC-e, an early crypto exchange that was prominent in its heyday. The site was shut down over massive allegations of money laundering and other crimes, and he was arrested. According to the New York Post, however, President Trump is trading Vinnik back to Russia.

“We now know what Russia received in this deal. Accused Russian money launderer Alexander Vinnik is being released from US custody in exchange for Marc Fogel,” wrote CNN reporter Zachary Cohen.

Specifically, Trump is turning Vinnik over to Russian authorities in a prisoner swap deal. In exchange, American school teacher Marc Fogel was returned to the US.

Fogel attempted to enter Russia with 17 grams of marijuana in 2022, which resulted in a 14-year drug trafficking sentence. This became a cause célèbre in some circles but is irrelevant to crypto.

Vinnik’s life has featured constant legal battles between the BTC-e closure and Trump’s swap deal. After a 2017 arrest in Greece, he was extradited to face charges in France, and then again to the US in 2022.

On top of his initial money laundering charges, the US added new charges in 2024, and Vinnik subsequently pled guilty to them.

“We view this as a very fair deal. We are not trading the Merchant of Death for a basketball player. Vinnik is currently in custody in northern California, awaiting transportation back to Russia,” two White House officials claimed to the press.

On the surface, it may look like Trump is continuing a general campaign of crypto clemency with Vinnik. Last month, he pardoned Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht after over a decade in prison. This won great acclaim from the crypto community.

However, while Ulbricht faces a rough re-integration with a dramatically changed crypto space, Vinnik has far more serious concerns.

Specifically, the Russian government has requested Vinnik’s extradition since at least 2018. Apparently, he confessed to Russian law enforcement that he committed major cyber fraud at BTC-e, with damages amounting to approximately $14.6 million.

Vinnik may prefer conditions in his home country, but he doesn’t seem likely to become a free man any time soon.

In other words, Trump’s main interest was in securing Marc Fogel’s release, not correcting government overreach for Alexander Vinnik. Fogel has already returned to the US, visited the White House, and publicly thanked Trump for his intervention. Vinnik, by contrast, is still in custody awaiting transportation.

ENA, the native token of Ethena—an Ethereum-based synthetic dollar protocol—has been the market’s top loser over the past 24 hours. The altcoin trades at $0.42, plunging over 10% during that period.

The price decline comes as one of the largest ENA stakers unstakes their entire holdings and sends them to crypto exchange Binance. 

ENA Whale Triggers Selloff

During the early Asian trading hours on February 11, a major Ethena whale, identified as wallet 0x8f9, unstaked its entire holding of 17.875 million ENA (valued at $8.78 million) and deposited it to Binance.

According to on-chain sleuth Spotonchain, this whale had accumulated ENA at an average purchase price of $1.167, mostly during price peaks. With the altcoin currently trading at $0.43, selling at this level would result in a massive loss for the whale.

When whales transfer large amounts of their tokens to exchanges, it signals a potential sell-off, increasing market supply and lowering prices. This can trigger bearish sentiment among traders, leading to heightened volatility and further price declines.

The negative funding rate that currently trails ENA reflects this bearish sentiment. According to Coinglass, this is at -0.012%.

Funding rates are periodic payments between long and short traders in perpetual futures contracts. It ensures that the asset’s contract price aligns with its spot price. 

When an asset’s funding rate turns negative, it indicates that short positions are dominant. It means traders are paying to stay short, which can signal strong bearish sentiment but also increase the risk of a short squeeze if sentiment shifts.

ENA Price Outlook: Will Selling Pressure Push It Lower?

ENA is currently trading at a three-month low of $0.42, facing heightened selling pressure. If whale 0x8f9 offloads its 17.875 million ENA on Binance, the lack of sufficient buy-side demand could drive the price further down, potentially breaking below $0.41 and sliding toward $0.31.

However, a surge in overall demand for ENA could absorb the selling pressure, counteracting the whale’s potential exit. In a bullish scenario, increased buying momentum could push the token’s price to $0.51.

Bitcoin (BTC) price has been struggling below $100,000 for the past eight days. Despite this, BTC keeps its position as the biggest crypto by far, with a market cap of $1.9 trillion.

Whale accumulation has slightly recovered from recent lows but remains weak compared to previous months, suggesting cautious sentiment among large holders. If BTC fails to build buying pressure, it could face further downside, while a breakout above key resistances could reignite bullish momentum.

BTC Ichimoku Cloud Shows Mixed Signals

The Ichimoku Cloud for BTC shows a mixed signal. The price is currently trading near the cloud but lacks a strong trend. The Kijun-sen (red line) and Tenkan-sen (blue line) are close together, indicating weak momentum and potential consolidation.

The cloud itself is thin in some areas, suggesting that the indicator provides little resistance or support. Additionally, the price has recently moved below the cloud, which is generally a bearish sign, but the cloud ahead is turning neutral, meaning the trend remains uncertain.

The Senkou Span A (green) and Senkou Span B (red) are nearly flat, reinforcing the lack of a strong directional bias.

The Chikou Span (green line) is hovering around the price, further confirming the market’s indecision. If the cloud ahead starts expanding, it could provide better trend clarity, but for now, the market seems to lack strong momentum.

The combination of a thin cloud and compressed indicator lines suggests Bitcoin is in a phase of low volatility, where neither bulls nor bears have full control.

Bitcoin Whales Still Struggle After Reaching Year-Low Levels

The number of BTC whale addresses, those holding at least 1,000 BTC, recently hit a yearly low of 2,034 on January 29, after a sharp decline throughout January. While it attempted a rebound, reaching 2,043 on February 6, the number dropped again before starting a slow recovery to 2,050.

Tracking whale activity is crucial because these large holders often influence market liquidity and volatility.

A decreasing number of whales can indicate reduced accumulation from major investors, potentially leading to weaker price support.

Although the whale count has rebounded slightly from its lowest point, it remains at relatively low levels compared to previous months. This suggests that while some large holders are returning, there hasn’t been a strong resurgence in accumulation.

A sustained increase in whale addresses could signal renewed confidence in BTC, while continued stagnation or decline may indicate cautious sentiment among major investors.

If whales remain hesitant to accumulate, BTC’s price could struggle to build strong upward momentum in the near term.

BTC Price Prediction: Will BTC Reclaim $100,000 Soon?

Bitcoin EMA lines remain bearish, with short-term EMAs still positioned below long-term ones. Currently, Bitcoin price is trading near the key support level of $96,700, which is crucial for maintaining stability.

If this level is tested and broken, selling pressure could intensify, leading to a drop toward $91,274.

However, if BTC price can establish an uptrend, the first major resistance to watch is $97,766. A breakout above this level could signal a shift in momentum toward $100,222.

If the uptrend strengthens, BTC could test $102,700, and a continuation of strong bullish momentum could push it further to $106,300.