Bitcoin price started a fresh increase above the $82,500 zone. BTC is now consolidating gains and might attempt to clear the $85,850 resistance.

• Bitcoin started a fresh increase above the $83,200 zone.
• The price is trading above $82,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
• There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at $84,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• The pair could start another increase if it clears the $85,500 zone.

Bitcoin Price Rises Again

Bitcoin price started a fresh increase above the $81,500 zone. BTC formed a base and gained pace for a move above the $82,500 and $83,200 resistance levels.

The bulls pumped the price above the $84,500 resistance. A high was formed at $85,850 and the price recently started a downside correction. There was a move below the $84,500 support. The price dipped below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $78,600 swing low to the $85,850 high.

However, the price remained stable above $82,200. Bitcoin price is now trading above $82,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at $84,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $85,500 level. The first key resistance is near the $85,850 level. The next key resistance could be $86,500. A close above the $86,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $88,000 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $88,800 level.

Another Decline In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $85,500 resistance zone, it could continue to move down. Immediate support on the downside is near the $84,200 level. The first major support is near the $82,200 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $78,600 swing low to the $85,850 high.

The next support is now near the $81,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $80,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $80,000.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $84,500, followed by $82,200.

Major Resistance Levels – $85,500 and $85,800.

Bitcoin’s price continues to struggle below the psychological $85,000 mark, failing to break past this critical level over the past two months. 

Despite some attempts to secure a rise, the leading cryptocurrency has remained stagnant, increasing pressure on long-term holders (LTHs). These investors, once enjoying solid profits, are now seeing a decline in their unrealized gains.

Bitcoin Investors Are Pulling Back

The MVRV Long/Short Difference, a key metric used to gauge market sentiment, reveals a concerning trend for LTHs. The indicator recently hit a two-year low, suggesting that long-term holders’ profits are at their lowest since March 2023. This shift indicates that the market conditions are increasingly unfavorable for LTHs. 

As Bitcoin’s price fails to recover, short-term holders (STHs) are beginning to dominate, capitalizing on the price fluctuations. Meanwhile, long-term holders (LTHs), facing diminishing profits, hold off on buying or holding more.

The overall momentum of Bitcoin, measured by technical indicators, also reflects bearish signals. The HODLer net position change further backs this narrative, as it shows that LTHs have sold a significant portion of their holdings over the last two weeks. In total, these sales amounted to more than 6,596 BTC, which is worth over $550 million. 

Although this figure may not be enormous, the psychological shift from confidence to caution among LTHs is a larger concern. This lack of conviction could delay Bitcoin’s recovery and contribute to further price stagnation. In turn, this could further limit market activity and exacerbate the ongoing downturn.

BTC Price Is Facing A Decline

Bitcoin’s price is trading at $84,421, hovering just above the crucial support level of $82,619. The price remains trapped under the key $85,000 resistance level, which could cause further pressure if it fails to break above. If Bitcoin loses support at $82,619, a decline to the next major psychological support of $80,000 is possible.

If the bearish trend continues, the price could fall further, with $78,841 emerging as a critical level to watch. Losing this support would mark a more significant downturn, confirming the continued market weakness and deepening the bearish outlook for Bitcoin.

However, if Bitcoin manages to breach and hold $85,000 as support, it could ignite a recovery, pushing the price back up toward $86,848. A sustained rise above $85,000 would invalidate the current bearish trend and pave the way for a potential surge toward $89,800, reestablishing confidence among investors.

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