Fantom (FTM) price has seen a remarkable rally in the last 30 days, surging 68% and sparking speculation of the token’s return to $1. However, despite this impressive performance, on-chain data suggest that the run toward this milestone is far from guaranteed.

FTM’s price last hit $1 six months ago. In this analysis, BeInCrypto reveals the challenges ahead and what investors should watch for.

Holders, Bitcoin Are Obstructing Fantom’s Move

On September 22, Fantom’s price hit $0.71 after the formation of an inverse head and shoulders pattern helped validate the uptrend. However, as of this writing, the value is $0.69, indicating that the FTM’s predicted run to $1 has been pegged back.

According to data from IntoTheBlock, FTM holders are largely responsible for this decline. Notably, Coins Holding Time, which measures the amount of time a cryptocurrency has been held without being sold, climbed up until October 4. 

This development suggests a strong conviction in the token’s short-term potential to move higher. But over the last four days, Fantom’s Coins Holding Time has declined, suggesting that holders have booked profits off the recent hike. If sustained, this selling pressure could hinder FTM’s price from climbing higher.

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Another factor that could hinder the cryptocurrency’s progress is its correlation with Bitcoin (BTC). Based on IntoTheBlock’s data, the 30-day correlation matrix between BTC and FTM is 0.92. This matrix or coefficient ranges from -1 to +1, where the former indicates little to no correlation while the latter signifies strong directional movement.

The current coefficient reading indicated that FTM moves in almost the same direction as Bitcoin. But recently, Bitcoin’s price, which hit $64,000 yesterday, has decreased to $62,383. As such, FTM’s price will likely follow a similar direction due to the bond the cryptocurrencies share.

FTM Price Prediction: Key Obstacles Threaten $1 Target

On the daily chart, FTM’s price is getting close to the supply zone at $0.73. Historically, whenever the altcoin reaches this point, it experiences a pullback. For instance, on May 10, the price hit $0.73. But shortly after, it decline to $0.64.

A similar occurrence happened on June 8, when FTM got rejected as soon as it hit this point. Should the same pattern play out in this instance, the token’s price could decline to $0.60. Furthermore, a highly bearish scenario could see FTM’s price plunge to $0.52.

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However, if bulls want to prevent the downside, they have to push the token well above the $0.73 resistance. If successful, the FTM/USD pair could rise to $0.80 and later toward $1 in the short term.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has shown signs of recovery in recent days following a sharp decline at the beginning of October. After dipping below key support levels, BTC has rebounded, giving hope to investors that a significant rally could be on the horizon. 

For Bitcoin to experience a 20% increase, it must flip a critical resistance level into support. The upcoming days will be crucial in determining whether the cryptocurrency can break through this barrier and sustain the momentum necessary for a potential surge.

Bitcoin Backers Are Back

Institutional interest in Bitcoin has resurged, marking a significant shift in market sentiment. On Monday, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw the largest inflows, with $235 million entering the market.

This came after several days of outflows, indicating a renewed appetite for the cryptocurrency among ETF investors. The influx of capital suggests that institutional and retail investors are once again viewing Bitcoin as a valuable asset, contributing to the bullish outlook.

This rise in interest is a positive indicator of Bitcoin’s price trajectory. When institutions start accumulating, it often signals confidence in the asset’s future. The increased inflows into spot BTC ETFs also reflect broader market interest, further supporting the possibility of Bitcoin achieving its target of a 20% rally in the near term.

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Additionally, long-term holders (LTHs) continue to exhibit strong conviction in Bitcoin, further boosting macro momentum. The Hodler Net Position Change indicator has shown positive figures since mid-August, demonstrating that LTHs have been in accumulation mode. This trend continues, as recent data indicates that LTHs are once again increasing their positions, adding to Bitcoin’s overall strength.

The sustained accumulation by long-term holders suggests that these key market participants believe in Bitcoin’s potential for further price appreciation. As LTHs hold onto their assets, the circulating supply reduces, creating a more favorable environment for a potential price surge. This macro momentum could help propel Bitcoin toward the much-anticipated 20% rally.

BTC Price Prediction: Reigniting Hope

Currently at $62,273, Bitcoin’s price has already broken out of a double-bottom pattern formed in September. However, the price is now once again trading below the neckline of the double-bottom pattern.

It has not yet gained enough momentum to realize the 20% rally predicted by the pattern. The target price remains $75,979, which would surpass Bitcoin’s previous all-time high of $73,787.

At the moment, the factors driving institutional interest and long-term holder accumulation point to Bitcoin possibly making another attempt at the rally. This will be confirmed if BTC breaks the $63,068 resistance and flips $65,000 into support. Such a move could trigger the next leg up, reinforcing the bullish thesis.

Read more: Bitcoin Halving History: Everything You Need To Know

However, if Bitcoin fails to breach $63,068, the price may return to $59,666. Losing this support would invalidate the double-bottom pattern and also undermine the bullish outlook, potentially leading to a deeper correction.