The cryptocurrency market is showing signs of an impending altcoin season, a period characterized by a surge in the price of other assets relative to Bitcoin. Market participants often shift their focus and capital toward altcoins during this period.

A number of key indicators are beginning to point to this gradual shift in market dynamics. This analysis delves into some of these factors.

Altcoin Season May Be Underway

One such indicator is the increasing trend in TOTAL3, a metric that tracks the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies, excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum. As of this writing, it stands at $933 billion, surging by 35% since the beginning of the month. For context, the market capitalization of this group of assets has added $212 billion over the past 22 days. 

As TOTAL3 approaches its all-time high of $1.13 trillion, it suggests that investors are allocating more capital to altcoins. Notably, the uptick in TOTAL3 comes during a period of consolidation in Bitcoin’s dominance (BTC.D).

Readings from its daily chart show that the BTC.D has oscillated between 61% and 58% since November 8. As of this writing, BTC.D stands at 59.30%.

When TOTAL3 spikes while BTC.D consolidates, it’s a significant indicator of a potential altcoin season. This means that investors are shifting their focus from Bitcoin to other cryptocurrencies, leading to increased demand and potentially higher prices for altcoins.

Moreover, in a new report, on-chain data provider CryptoQuant has noted an uptick in the values of several Layer 1 altcoins since the conclusion of the US presidential elections, confirming that a potential altcoin season might be underway.

“Cryptocurrencies like XRP, TRX (TRON), TON, ADA, and SOL have seen their prices increase sharply on expectations that the new US administration will be more pro-crypto,” CryptoQuant stated.

Furthermore, CryptoQuant explains that a spike in spot trading volume has accompanied this price surge.

“Daily spot trading volume for altcoins increased after the US presidential election and spiked as high as $18 billion on November 11, the highest since early August. Prior to this, altcoin spot trading volume had remained muted since May.”

The Altcoins May Need Some More Time 

While readings from the indicators mentioned above suggest a likely altcoin season in the near term, it is key to note that this will be confirmed when at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin over a three-month period. 

However, data from Blockchain Center reveals that only 43% of these top altcoins have surpassed Bitcoin’s performance in the past 90 days — well below the 75% threshold required to declare an altcoin season officially.

Stellar (XLM) has experienced a 50% price surge over the past 24 hours, making it the top-performing asset during this period. This surge can be attributed to the recent 10-K filing submitted by Grayscale Investments LLC for its Grayscale Stellar Lumens Trust.

At press time, the altcoin trades at $0.45, its highest price point since 2021. However, readings from its daily chart hint at a possible short-term decline. Here is how.

Stellar Lumens Trust Sees Spike in Net Assets

On Friday, Grayscale Investments LLC’s Grayscale Stellar Lumens Trust (XLM) submitted its 10-K filing for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2024. It noted that the trust recorded a 10% uptick in its overall net assets during the financial year considered. 

A 10-K filing is an annual report that publicly traded companies in the US are required to submit to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). It provides an overview of the company’s financial performance. It includes the entity’s audited financial statements, business operations, risk factors, and management discussion and analysis.  

According to the report, the Grayscale Stellar Lumens Trust (XLM), an investment vehicle offering investors exposure to XLM, faced losses. This was due to the token’s price depreciation during the period considered and the fees paid to the trust’s sponsors. However, these losses were offset by the 34,875,230 XLM tokens valued at $3,923 added to the trust. This resulted in a net increase in the trust’s overall assets.

XLM Reacts To the News

The positive sentiment around this filing has resulted in a spike in XLM’s value. Over the past 24 hours, the token’s price has surged 58%, making it the market’s top gainer. As of this writing, the altcoin trades at $0.45, a price last observed in November 2021. 

However, readings from its daily chart suggest that this rally may not continue as XLM has become overbought among market participants. For example, its Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at an all-time high of  92.54 at press time. 

RSI measures an asset’s oversold and overbought market conditions. It ranges between 0 and 100, with values above 70 indicating that the asset is overbought and due for a correction. On the other hand, values below 30 suggest that the asset is oversold and may witness a rebound. XLM’s RSI reading of 92.54 suggests that it is significantly overbought and is at risk of a pullback. 

Furthermore, XLM’s price trades above the upper line of its Bollinger Bands indicator, confirming the likelihood of a price correction. 

The Bollinger Bands indicator measures market volatility and identifies potential buy and sell signals. It consists of three main components: the middle band, the upper band, and the lower band. 

When the price trades above the upper band, it suggests that the asset is overbought. This means that the asset’s price has moved significantly higher than its average price and is at risk of a pullback in the near term.

XLM Price Prediction: Token May Shed Recent Gains

Once buyer exhaustion sets in, XLM’s price is at risk of shedding some of its recent gains. According to its Fibonacci Retracement tool, if this happens, its price target will be the support level formed at $0.35. If the bulls fail to defend this level, the token’s price may drop further to $0.23. 

On the other hand, if buying pressure intensifies, the XLM token price will continue its uptrend and attempt to breach $0.52, a high it last reached in May 2021.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is now the most dominant narrative in crypto, and some coins are capitalizing on it. TFUEL is nearing a $500 million market cap after an 18% rise in the last seven days, though it remains far below its 2021 peak. ZIG, up 15% in the past week, is closing in on its all-time high, fueled by strong market interest and its growing $200 million market cap.

Meanwhile, AKT, the fifth-largest AI-focused coin, has gained 22% this week and is on the verge of breaking the $1 billion market cap, highlighting its strong momentum and expanding role in decentralized cloud computing.

Theta Fuel (TFUEL)

TFUEL is the coin of Theta Network, a blockchain-powered video streaming platform. Its approach aims to lower streaming costs while improving content quality and expanding distribution reach.

TFUEL has gained 18% in the past seven days and is now approaching the $500 million market cap. Despite this recent growth, the altcoin remains significantly below its 2021 all-time high, sitting at just one-tenth of that peak value. This highlights both its potential for recovery and the challenges it faces in regaining former levels.

TFUEL’s RSI is currently at 50, indicating neutral momentum where neither buyers nor sellers dominate. If the uptrend gets strong again, it could rise to test $0.080 and potentially reach $0.1. However, if the trend is reverted, it could go down as much as $0.054 or even $0.047.

ZIGDAO (ZIG)

ZIGDAO, formerly known as Zignaly, is a platform designed to enable crypto copy trading with artificial intelligence. It allows users to invest in digital assets by following the strategies of top managers and funds.

ZIG is currently 20% below its all-time high but may be gearing up to test it again. The coin has recently surpassed a $200 million market cap and is up 15% over the last seven days.

If the uptrend remains strong, ZIG could break past its all-time high, surpassing $0.19. However, a reversal in market sentiment could see the coin testing its support at $0.127. If that level fails, ZIG may face a deeper correction, potentially dropping to $0.081.

Akash Network (AKT)

Akash Network is a decentralized, open-source cloud computing platform designed to connect those in need of computing power with providers offering cloud resources using artificial intelligence.

AKT, Akash’s native token, is currently the fifth-largest AI-focused coin in the market and is approaching a $1 billion market cap. With a 22% gain over the past seven days, AKT has demonstrated strong momentum, positioning itself for potential further growth as it eyes this significant milestone in the coming weeks.

If the uptrend continues, AKT could test resistance at $4.71 and possibly push toward $5 for the first time since May 2024. However, if market sentiment shifts and the trend reverses, AKT may face downward pressure, testing support levels at $2.87 and $2.43.