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Polymarket Trader Activity Plummets 40% Due to CFTC Pressure

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Polymarket is managing to hold its ground despite regulatory pressures on election-related prediction platforms.

The Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) recently introduced a proposed rule targeting prediction markets, which led to Kalshi becoming the latest platform affected. This uncertainty has begun to impact Polymarket, raising concerns about its future in the current regulatory environment.

Polymarket Daily Active Traders Drop Nearly 40%

According to Dune, Polymarket has seen a significant drop in daily active traders, decreasing by 39.4% from 12,595 on Wednesday to 7,627 on Sunday. Similarly, daily trading volume plummeted 85.6%, falling from $37.2 million to $5.35 million over the same period.

The decline in activity mirrors the broader challenges facing election-related prediction platforms amid increased regulatory scrutiny. As reported by BeInCrypto, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has proposed a rule to limit certain event contracts, particularly those tied to political events, contributing to the downturn in Polymarket’s metrics.

Read more: Crypto Regulation: What Are the Benefits and Drawbacks?

Polymarket Daily Volume, Daily Active Traders Metrics
Polymarket Daily Volume, Daily Active Traders. Source: Dune

According to the commodities regulator, event contracts like those offered by Polymarket carry risks associated with election-related gambling. Several crypto executives have resisted this attack, including Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, Gemini co-founders the Winklevoss twins and Coinbase CLO Paul Grewal.

However, the CFTC remains firm, as shown by its ongoing conflict with Kalshi, a US-based prediction market for event contracts. The CFTC argues that markets like Kalshi are vulnerable to manipulation, citing specific examples in its filings:

  • Traders on Polymarket trying to manipulate contracts related to Kamala Harris’ potential victory in the 2024 US presidential election.
  • A fabricated poll on PredictIt showed musician Kid Rock leading Senator Debbie Stabenow in a Senate race. Notably, this incident significantly affected the pricing of contracts for Stabenow’s reelection.

CFTC Wants Kalshi Prediction Market Blocked

It is worth mentioning that this is not the first of Kalshi’s encounters with the CFTC. In November 2023, the platform filed a lawsuit against the regulator, challenging a decision to bar Kalshi from listing political event contracts on potential Congress chambers’ leaderships.

Fast-forward to September 6, District Court Judge Jia Cobb ruled in favor of Kalshi, partly allowing it to offer election-related betting.

“Kalshi just legalized trading on elections in the US. For the first time in 100 years, Americans will have access to legal election markets at scale. Historic moment for financial markets,” Kalshi’s founder, Tarek Mansour, shared on X.

However, the CFTC challenged this determination, filing an emergency motion for a 14-day stay on Kalshi’s election markets. The regulator also filed a notice to appeal the court’s decision, but Judge Cobb criticized the move, calling out the regulator for overstepping its authority by trying to shut down Kalshi’s election markets.

CFTC Stay Motion Against Kalshi.
CFTC Stay Motion Against Kalshi. Source: CourtListener

The regulator’s push to block Kalshi has made prediction market participants skeptical about Polymarket, with some saying it could be next. One user on X, however, advertising as an “iGaming regulation expert,” calls for a balance between innovation and democracy.

“It’s clear that the intersection of prediction markets and election integrity is a tightrope walk. The CFTC’s concerns highlight the need for rigorous oversight. But let’s ponder — can we strike a balance where innovation thrives without compromising democratic principles?” the user wrote.

Read more: How Can Blockchain Be Used for Voting in 2024?

Even as prediction markets face criticism from regulatory bodies, mainstream companies are interested in these event contracts. Recently, Bloomberg integrated Polymarket on its terminal. This suggests increasing recognition of the role of decentralized prediction platforms as the November elections approach.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Solana Rallies Past Bitcoin—Momentum Tilts In Favor of SOL

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Solana started a fresh increase from the $120 support zone. SOL price is now consolidating and might climb further above the $142 resistance zone.

  • SOL price started a fresh increase above the $125 and $132 levels against the US Dollar.
  • The price is now trading above $130 and the 100-hourly simple moving average.
  • There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $137 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
  • The pair could start a fresh increase if it clears the $142 resistance zone.

Solana Price Gains Over 5%

Solana price formed a base above the $120 support and started a fresh increase, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL gained pace for a move above the $125 and $132 resistance levels.

The pair even spiked toward the $145 resistance zone. A high was formed at $143.06 and the price is now retreating lower. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $135 swing low to the $143 high.

Solana is now trading above $130 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $137 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair. The trend line is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $135 swing low to the $143 high.

Solana Price

On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $142 level. The next major resistance is near the $145 level. The main resistance could be $150. A successful close above the $150 resistance zone could set the pace for another steady increase. The next key resistance is $155. Any more gains might send the price toward the $165 level.

Pullback in SOL?

If SOL fails to rise above the $142 resistance, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $138.50 zone. The first major support is near the $137 level and the trend line.

A break below the $137 level might send the price toward the $132 zone. If there is a close below the $132 support, the price could decline toward the $125 support in the near term.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for SOL/USD is gaining pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly Hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for SOL/USD is above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $137 and $132.

Major Resistance Levels – $142 and $145.



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Bitcoin Price Breakout In Progress—Momentum Builds Above Resistance

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Bitcoin price is slowly moving higher above the $86,500 zone. BTC is gaining pace and might continue higher in the near term.

  • Bitcoin found support at $84,200 and started a recovery wave.
  • The price is trading above $85,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
  • There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at $85,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair could start another increase if it clears the $88,000 zone.

Bitcoin Price Eyes Steady Increase

Bitcoin price remained stable above the $83,200 level and started a fresh increase. BTC was able to climb above the $84,200 and $85,000 resistance levels.

There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at $85,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The bulls were able to pump the price above the $86,500 resistance. It even spiked above $87,000. A high is formed near $87,562 and the price might continue to rise unless there is a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $84,007 swing low to the $87,562 high.

Bitcoin price is now trading above $86,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $87,500 level. The first key resistance is near the $88,000 level.

Bitcoin Price
Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The next key resistance could be $88,800. A close above the $88,800 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $89,500 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $90,000 level.

Downside Correction In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $88,000 resistance zone, it could start a downside correction. Immediate support on the downside is near the $87,000 level. The first major support is near the $86,750 level.

The next support is now near the $86,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $85,750 support or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $84,007 swing low to the $87,562 high in the near term. The main support sits at $84,850.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $86,750, followed by $86,000.

Major Resistance Levels – $87,500 and $88,000.



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Will XRP Break Support and Drop Below $2?

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XRP is down 5% over the past week, struggling to regain momentum as technical indicators flash mixed signals. Its Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below 50, and the price remains stuck within a tight range between key support and resistance levels.

At the same time, the Ichimoku Cloud has shifted from green to red, with a thickening cloud ahead suggesting growing bearish pressure. With volatility compressing and momentum fading, XRP is nearing a critical point where a breakout—or breakdown—seems increasingly likely.

XRP Struggles to Regain Momentum as RSI Drops Below 50

XRP’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently sitting at 44.54, after recovering from an intraday low of 40.67. Just yesterday, it was at 51.30, highlighting increased short-term volatility.

RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions.

Readings above 70 typically suggest an asset is overbought, while readings below 30 indicate it may be oversold.

XRP RSI.
XRP RSI. Source: TradingView.

With XRP’s RSI at 44.54, it’s currently in neutral territory, showing neither strong buying nor selling pressure.

However, the fact that it hasn’t crossed the overbought threshold of 70 since March 19—over a month ago—signals a lack of sustained bullish momentum. This could mean XRP is still in a consolidation phase, with the market waiting for a clearer direction.

If RSI continues to climb toward 50 and beyond, it may hint at building momentum, but without a breakout above 70, upside could remain limited.

XRP Faces Uncertainty as Bearish Trend Begins to Expand

XRP is currently trading inside the Ichimoku Cloud, signaling market indecision and a neutral trend.

The Tenkan-sen (blue line) has crossed below the Kijun-sen (red line), which is a bearish signal, but with the price still within the cloud, it lacks full confirmation.

The cloud itself acts as a zone of support and resistance, and XRP is now moving sideways within that zone.

XRP Ichimoku Cloud.
XRP Ichimoku Cloud. Source: TradingView.

Looking ahead, the cloud has shifted from green to red—a sign that bearish momentum may be building. Even more concerning is that the red cloud is widening, which suggests increasing downward pressure in the near future.

A thickening red Kumo often signals stronger resistance overhead and a potential continuation of a bearish trend if the price breaks below the cloud.

Until XRP breaks out decisively in either direction, the market remains in a wait-and-see phase, but the growing red cloud tilts the bias toward caution.

XRP Compression Zone: A Breakout Could Send Price to $2.50 — Or Much Lower

XRP price is currently trading within a tight range, caught between a key support level at $2.05 and resistance at $2.09. This narrow channel reflects short-term uncertainty, but a decisive move in either direction could set the tone for what’s next.

If the $2.05 support fails, the next level to watch is $1.96. A break below that could trigger a steep drop toward $1.61, which would mark the first close below $1.70 since November 2024—a bearish signal that could accelerate selling pressure.

Recently, veteran analyst Peter Brandt warned that a major correction could hit XRP soon.

XRP Price Analysis.
XRP Price Analysis. Source: TradingView.

On the flip side, if bulls regain control and push XRP above the $2.09 resistance, the next target lies at $2.17. A breakout beyond that could open the door to a move toward $2.50, a price level not seen since March 19.

For that to happen, XRP would need a clear resurgence in momentum and buying volume.

Until then, the price remains trapped in a narrow zone, with both upside and downside potential on the table.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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