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Market Dynamics Around Token Unlocks

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Token unlocks are more than just scheduled events; they are critical market drivers. Whether causing price suppression, volatility, or ecosystem growth, their impact is undeniable. Keyrock, a cryptocurrency market maker, published a report on token unlocks and how these events affect the market.

The research highlights that token unlocks, though predictable, have significant impacts. Leveraging insights from the study enables crypto market participants to navigate these events more effectively, transforming potential disruptions into opportunities.

Keyrock Research Unveils Insights on Token Unlocks

The study examined more than 16,000 token unlocks, shedding light on the substantial effects these events have on market behavior. The findings of the research provide valuable insights for traders and investors alike. Every week, over $600 million worth of tokens enter circulation due to unlocks. Despite their frequency, the market reaction to these events is almost uniform.

“Understanding unlock schedules is no longer optional for traders. It’s essential for timing market entries and exits effectively,” the research highlighted.

According to Keyrock, 90% of unlocks create negative price pressure. This is true regardless of the size, type, or recipient of the tokens. Interestingly, price impacts often begin well before the unlock date, likely as community members front-run the event. Bigger unlocks amplify this effect, causing sharper price drops (up to 2.4 times greater) and increased volatility.

Of note is that token unlock events typically follow structured schedules outlined in vesting tables. These schedules can range from single large releases (cliffs unlocks) to continuous monthly distributions (linear unlocks). Keyrock’s research categorizes these events by size, establishing that smaller unlocks, while less impactful individually, can create cumulative price suppression.

  • Nano (<0.1%) and Micro Unlocks (0.1%-0.5%): Minimal impact.
  • Small (0.5%-1%) and Medium Unlocks (1%-5%): Capable of influencing market sentiment.
  • Large (5%-10%) and Huge Unlocks (>10%): Significant events with high market impact.

For traders, the size of an unlock determines its importance. Huge token unlocks, though initially disruptive, often spread their effects over time, leading to a more gradual price recovery.

Besides size, the type of recipient receiving the unlocked tokens also significantly influences price dynamics. Assessing the unlock recipient’s profile is crucial for determining the potential market impact.  Keyrock has identified five primary categories in this context.

Team Unlocks

These are the most detrimental, leading to average price drops of up to 25%. Uncoordinated selling by team members, coupled with a lack of strategic measures to minimize market impact, exacerbates the situation. Often treated as compensation, these tokens are sold quickly to address financial needs, resulting in sharp price declines.

“Team unlocks exemplify how lack of planning can amplify market disruption,” the report noted.

Therefore, traders should avoid entering positions during these unlock periods or even during the linear distribution that often follows.

Investor Unlocks

Managed strategically and exhibited controlled impacts due to advanced hedging and liquidation strategies. Interestingly, investor unlocks exhibit more controlled price behavior compared to team unlocks.

Early investors, often from venture capital (VC) backgrounds, employ advanced strategies such as OTC deals, derivatives, and options to mitigate the impact of token sales. These methods reduce immediate sell-side pressure and ensure orderly market conditions.

Keyrock’s research points out, that the adoption of similar strategies by project teams could significantly reduce the negative impacts of token unlocks.

“Sophistication in planning and execution can turn unlocks into opportunities rather than liabilities,” Keyrock added.

Ecosystem Development Unlocks

Uniquely positive, these often result in price increases (+1.18% on average) as they inject liquidity or incentivize ecosystem growth. The tokens typically serve for infrastructure development, contributing to long-term ecosystem growth.

Keyrock cites the example of Optimism (OP), which strategically allocated $36 million in tokens to 24 projects following a major unlock in June 2022. This approach not only stabilized the market but also drove network expansion.

“Unlocks aligned with ecosystem growth strategies can act as catalysts rather than disruptors,” Keyrock said.

Optimism Price vs. Time. Source: Keyrock Research on Token Unlocks
Optimism Price vs. Time. Source: Keyrock Research on Token Unlocks

Community or public unlocks often exhibit mixed impacts, with many tokens held or sold by recipients, reflecting moderate price pressures. On the other hand, burn unlocks are rare and, therefore, excluded from the analysis.

Key Takeaways: Patterns and Strategies Around Unlocks

Meanwhile, two phenomena frequently drive pre-token unlock price suppression. First, is retail anticipation, where traders sell early to avoid dilution, further driving down prices. Second, is institutional hedging, where sophisticated holders preemptively lock in prices, minimizing their impact on unlock days.

Post-unlock, prices often stabilize within two weeks as market dynamics adjust. For ecosystem development unlocks, the stabilization is coupled with tangible growth benefits, as seen in projects like Optimism, which effectively used token unlocks to fund ecosystem expansion.

“Optimism’s strategy following its aggressive June 2022 unlock offers a textbook example of how ecosystem unlocks, when well-designed, can drive both immediate utility and long-term growth. Despite an initial selloff, Optimism demonstrated how aligning unlocks with targeted incentives can transform a supply shock into a springboard for expansion,” an excerpt from the research stated.

eyrock’s research highlights the importance of monitoring unlock schedules and understanding recipient behavior. For traders, timing is crucial. Exiting positions 30 days before major unlocks and re-entering 14 days later can reduce risks and maximize returns. For projects, carefully planned unlock schedules and strategies, such as phased releases and liquidity support, can minimize market disruptions and align with long-term growth objectives.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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3 Meme Coins to Watch For The Last Week of February 2025

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DOGEai, TST, and BROCCOLI are three meme coins drawing attention for the last week of February. DOGEai, launched on Solana, is up 110% in the past seven days, positioning itself as a leading AI meme coin.

TST remains one of the most popular meme coins on the BNB chain despite a recent correction. At the same time, BROCCOLI, inspired by Binance co-founder CZ’s dog, has also seen significant volatility.

DOGEai (DOGEAI)

DOGEai is an artificial intelligence coin launched on Solana. Its market cap is now $32 million, up 82% in the last seven days. This rise has positioned DOGEai as one of the most talked-about AI meme coins in recent days.

DOGEAI Price Analysis.
DOGEAI Price Analysis. Source: TradingView.

DOGEai leverages multiple narratives, including Dogecoin’s popularity, the growing interest in DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency), and the broader AI cryptos trend. It defines itself as “an autonomous AI agent here to uncover waste and inefficiencies in government spending and policy decisions,” offering bill summaries and insights into government expenditures.

If the current uptrend continues, DOGEai could test the resistance at $0.048, with potential targets at $0.059 and $0.069. However, if a downtrend emerges, DOGEai has support at $0.030, and if that level is lost, it could drop to $0.018 or even $0.0092.

Test (TST)

TST has emerged as one of the most popular meme coins on the BNB chain, benefiting from the chain’s growing volume, which recently even surpassed Solana.

In the days following its launch, TST reached a market cap close to $500 million, then entered a strong correction phase. Its market cap has since dropped to $78 million.

TST Price Analysis.
TST Price Analysis. Source: TradingView.

If the BNB narrative gains strength again, TST could benefit as one of its most popular meme coins and may test the resistance at $0.10. A breakout above this level could push TST to $0.20 or even $0.25 if buying pressure intensifies.

However, if TST fails to regain strong upward momentum, it could test the support at $0.0719 and potentially drop to its lowest levels since February 9.

CZ’S Dog (BROCCOLI)

BROCCOLI was launched a few weeks ago after Binance co-founder CZ revealed his dog’s name, sparking a flood of BROCCOLI tokens on the market.

The largest of these tokens quickly surged to a $249 million market cap in its early days but has since dropped to $52 million.

Like TST, BROCCOLI benefited from the recent rise of the BNB ecosystem but has since entered a strong correction phase. It is down 40% in the last seven days.

BROCCOLI Price Analysis.
BROCCOLI Price Analysis. Source: TradingView.

If the downtrend continues, BROCCOLI could test support near $0.04, and a break below this level could push it to its lowest price since launch.

However, if the BNB ecosystem and meme coins regain traction, BROCCOLI could benefit, especially given the popularity of dog-related meme coins like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu. In this bullish scenario, BROCCOLI could rise to test the resistance at $0.113.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Ethereum Rollback Debate Intensifies After Bybit Hack

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The crypto community is divided over calls for an Ethereum blockchain rollback following a massive security breach at Bybit.

On February 21, the exchange lost nearly $1.5 billion in ETH to hackers, sparking discussions about whether Ethereum should intervene to recover the stolen funds.

What is a Blockchain Rollback?

A blockchain rollback, also known as a reorganization, involves reversing confirmed transactions to restore the network to an earlier state.

This process usually happens after a major security breach or exploit. Validators must reach a consensus to discard the affected blocks, effectively erasing the malicious transactions.

Despite its potential benefits, a rollback remains a controversial and rarely used measure due to its impact on a blockchain’s trust and decentralization.

Blockchains operate on the principle of immutability, meaning transactions are expected to be final once confirmed. So, rolling back transactions challenges this principle, raising concerns about the security and reliability of the network.

Crypto Leaders Clash Over Ethereum Rollback Proposal

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has been vocal in advocating for a rollback to solve the ByBit hack. He pointed to the 2016 DAO hack, where Ethereum underwent a hard fork to recover stolen funds, as precedent.

Hayes argued that since Ethereum previously compromised on immutability, another intervention should not be off the table.

“My own view as a mega ETH bag holder is ETH stopped being money in 2016 after the DAO hack hardfork. If the community wanted to do it again, I would support it because we already voted no on immutability in 2016,” Hayes said.

JAN3 CEO Samson Mow also supported the rollback, stating it could prevent North Korea from using the stolen funds to fund its nuclear weapons program.

However, not everyone agrees. Pseudonymous crypto trader Borovik strongly opposed the idea, arguing that a rollback would jeopardize Ethereum’s credibility and neutrality.

Bitcoin advocate Jimmy Song also dismissed the possibility, stating that the Bybit hack cannot be compared to the 2016 DAO exploit. Song emphasized that the DAO hack allowed for a 30-day intervention, whereas the Bybit attack is already finalized, making a rollback impractical.

“I know people are expecting the Ethereum Foundation to roll back the chain, but I suspect it’s already too much of a mess to do it cleanly,” Song added.

Meanwhile, Ethereum supporter Adriano Feria introduced an alternative perspective. He argued that Bybit could have avoided this situation by using a Layer 2 (L2) solution with conditional reversible transactions.

According to Feria, blockchain technology needs some form of reversibility to ensure real-world adoption.

“Whether through social recovery or another pre-determined, immutable, and transparent decision-making process, real-world mass adoption will not work without reversible transactions. Without this capability, transactional activity will inevitably gravitate toward TradFi systems that already provide it,” Feria stated.

This debate raises a fundamental question for Ethereum: should it prioritize immutability or intervene in extreme cases?

While some see a rollback as a necessary response to an unprecedented loss, others fear it could undermine the core principles of decentralization. Ethereum’s next steps will likely shape its long-term credibility and trust within the crypto space.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Berachain (BERA) Falls 15% After Recent Rally Surge

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Berachain (BERA) is down almost 15% in the last 24 hours, with its market cap now at $778 million, although its price remains up nearly 20% over the past seven days. This sharp pullback comes after a strong rally between February 18 and February 20, when BERA reached levels above $8.5.

BERA’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped from overbought levels, signaling a loss of bullish momentum, while its Directional Movement Index (DMI) shows growing bearish pressure. As BERA navigates this correction phase, it faces key support at $6.1, with potential resistance levels at $8.5, $9.1, and $10 if bullish momentum returns.

BERA RSI Is Dropping Steadily After Touching Overbought Levels

Berachain Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 50.6, down sharply from 86.7 just two days ago when its price surged above $8.5. RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements, ranging from 0 to 100.

It is commonly used to identify overbought or oversold conditions, with values above 70 indicating overbought levels and below 30 suggesting oversold territory.

The steep decline in BERA’s RSI reflects a significant loss of bullish momentum after reaching overbought levels above 86, where a correction was likely.

BERA RSI.
BERA RSI. Source: TradingView.

With RSI now at 50.6, BERA is in a neutral zone, suggesting that buying and selling pressures are relatively balanced.

This could indicate a period of consolidation as the market digests recent gains. If RSI continues to decline below 50, it could signal increasing bearish momentum. This could lead to a further price drop for BERA.

Conversely, if RSI stabilizes and begins to rise, it could suggest renewed buying interest and a potential recovery in Berachain price.

BERA DMI Chart Shows Buyers Are Losing Control

Berachain Directional Movement Index (DMI) chart shows its Average Directional Index (ADX) currently at 50.5, after peaking at 60.2 yesterday, up from just 13.3 five days ago. ADX is an indicator used to measure the strength of a trend, regardless of its direction, ranging from 0 to 100.

Values above 25 typically indicate a strong trend, while values below 20 suggest a weak or sideways market. The sharp rise in ADX reflects a significant increase in trend strength, confirming that BERA has been experiencing strong directional movement recently.

BERA DMI.
BERA CMF. Source: TradingView.

Meanwhile, BERA’s +DI is at 24.4, down from 48.4 two days ago, indicating weakening bullish momentum. Meanwhile, -DI has risen to 15.1 from 4.9, suggesting growing bearish pressure.

This shift signals that the bullish trend that drove prices higher is losing steam, and selling interest is beginning to increase.

If -DI continues to rise above +DI, it could indicate a bearish crossover, signaling a potential reversal or deeper correction in BERA’s price. However, if +DI stabilizes and moves upward again, it could suggest a continuation of the uptrend, albeit with reduced momentum.

Will Berachain Fall Below $6 Soon?

Berachain surged 53% between February 18 and February 20, pushing its price above $8.5 after the coin struggled following its airdrop. However, after this sharp rally, BERA entered a correction phase and is currently down almost 15% in the last 24 hours.

This pullback suggests profit-taking and a shift in market sentiment as buyers hesitate to push prices higher. If the downtrend continues, BERA could soon test the support at $6.1, and a break below this level could lead to a further decline towards $5.48, reflecting increased selling pressure.

BERA Price Analysis.
BERA Price Analysis. Source: TradingView.

On the other hand, if Berachain can regain its bullish momentum from a few days ago, it could rise above $8.5 again, potentially testing the next resistance levels at $9.1 or even $10.

To confirm this bullish scenario, Berachain would need to see renewed buying interest and strong upward momentum. If buyers can defend key support levels and push the price above resistance zones, it could indicate the continuation of the uptrend.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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