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Market Dynamics Around Token Unlocks

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Token unlocks are more than just scheduled events; they are critical market drivers. Whether causing price suppression, volatility, or ecosystem growth, their impact is undeniable. Keyrock, a cryptocurrency market maker, published a report on token unlocks and how these events affect the market.

The research highlights that token unlocks, though predictable, have significant impacts. Leveraging insights from the study enables crypto market participants to navigate these events more effectively, transforming potential disruptions into opportunities.

Keyrock Research Unveils Insights on Token Unlocks

The study examined more than 16,000 token unlocks, shedding light on the substantial effects these events have on market behavior. The findings of the research provide valuable insights for traders and investors alike. Every week, over $600 million worth of tokens enter circulation due to unlocks. Despite their frequency, the market reaction to these events is almost uniform.

“Understanding unlock schedules is no longer optional for traders. It’s essential for timing market entries and exits effectively,” the research highlighted.

According to Keyrock, 90% of unlocks create negative price pressure. This is true regardless of the size, type, or recipient of the tokens. Interestingly, price impacts often begin well before the unlock date, likely as community members front-run the event. Bigger unlocks amplify this effect, causing sharper price drops (up to 2.4 times greater) and increased volatility.

Of note is that token unlock events typically follow structured schedules outlined in vesting tables. These schedules can range from single large releases (cliffs unlocks) to continuous monthly distributions (linear unlocks). Keyrock’s research categorizes these events by size, establishing that smaller unlocks, while less impactful individually, can create cumulative price suppression.

  • Nano (<0.1%) and Micro Unlocks (0.1%-0.5%): Minimal impact.
  • Small (0.5%-1%) and Medium Unlocks (1%-5%): Capable of influencing market sentiment.
  • Large (5%-10%) and Huge Unlocks (>10%): Significant events with high market impact.

For traders, the size of an unlock determines its importance. Huge token unlocks, though initially disruptive, often spread their effects over time, leading to a more gradual price recovery.

Besides size, the type of recipient receiving the unlocked tokens also significantly influences price dynamics. Assessing the unlock recipient’s profile is crucial for determining the potential market impact.  Keyrock has identified five primary categories in this context.

Team Unlocks

These are the most detrimental, leading to average price drops of up to 25%. Uncoordinated selling by team members, coupled with a lack of strategic measures to minimize market impact, exacerbates the situation. Often treated as compensation, these tokens are sold quickly to address financial needs, resulting in sharp price declines.

“Team unlocks exemplify how lack of planning can amplify market disruption,” the report noted.

Therefore, traders should avoid entering positions during these unlock periods or even during the linear distribution that often follows.

Investor Unlocks

Managed strategically and exhibited controlled impacts due to advanced hedging and liquidation strategies. Interestingly, investor unlocks exhibit more controlled price behavior compared to team unlocks.

Early investors, often from venture capital (VC) backgrounds, employ advanced strategies such as OTC deals, derivatives, and options to mitigate the impact of token sales. These methods reduce immediate sell-side pressure and ensure orderly market conditions.

Keyrock’s research points out, that the adoption of similar strategies by project teams could significantly reduce the negative impacts of token unlocks.

“Sophistication in planning and execution can turn unlocks into opportunities rather than liabilities,” Keyrock added.

Ecosystem Development Unlocks

Uniquely positive, these often result in price increases (+1.18% on average) as they inject liquidity or incentivize ecosystem growth. The tokens typically serve for infrastructure development, contributing to long-term ecosystem growth.

Keyrock cites the example of Optimism (OP), which strategically allocated $36 million in tokens to 24 projects following a major unlock in June 2022. This approach not only stabilized the market but also drove network expansion.

“Unlocks aligned with ecosystem growth strategies can act as catalysts rather than disruptors,” Keyrock said.

Optimism Price vs. Time. Source: Keyrock Research on Token Unlocks
Optimism Price vs. Time. Source: Keyrock Research on Token Unlocks

Community or public unlocks often exhibit mixed impacts, with many tokens held or sold by recipients, reflecting moderate price pressures. On the other hand, burn unlocks are rare and, therefore, excluded from the analysis.

Key Takeaways: Patterns and Strategies Around Unlocks

Meanwhile, two phenomena frequently drive pre-token unlock price suppression. First, is retail anticipation, where traders sell early to avoid dilution, further driving down prices. Second, is institutional hedging, where sophisticated holders preemptively lock in prices, minimizing their impact on unlock days.

Post-unlock, prices often stabilize within two weeks as market dynamics adjust. For ecosystem development unlocks, the stabilization is coupled with tangible growth benefits, as seen in projects like Optimism, which effectively used token unlocks to fund ecosystem expansion.

“Optimism’s strategy following its aggressive June 2022 unlock offers a textbook example of how ecosystem unlocks, when well-designed, can drive both immediate utility and long-term growth. Despite an initial selloff, Optimism demonstrated how aligning unlocks with targeted incentives can transform a supply shock into a springboard for expansion,” an excerpt from the research stated.

eyrock’s research highlights the importance of monitoring unlock schedules and understanding recipient behavior. For traders, timing is crucial. Exiting positions 30 days before major unlocks and re-entering 14 days later can reduce risks and maximize returns. For projects, carefully planned unlock schedules and strategies, such as phased releases and liquidity support, can minimize market disruptions and align with long-term growth objectives.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Analyst Reveals ‘Worst Case Scenario’ With Head And Shoulders Formation

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Recent XRP price action has sparked a new prediction from a crypto analyst, as a potential Head and Shoulders pattern emerges on the chart. The analyst warns that this technical formation could trigger a significant price correction for XRP, describing this downturn as the worst-case scenario. 

Analyst Predicts XRP Price Crash To $1.15

The ‘Charting Guy,’ a pseudonymous crypto analyst on X (formerly Twitter), has unveiled a potential Head and Shoulder pattern formation on the XRP price chart. The analyst has shared insights into the implications of this technical pattern, projecting a potential crash in the XRP price

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As a well-known bearish reversal pattern, the formation of a Head and Shoulder in the XRP price chart suggests a potential shift from an uptrend to a downtrend. Typically, a Head and Shoulder pattern consists of three peaks: the Left Shoulder, Head, and Right Shoulder. However, the Charting Guy has confirmed that XRP’s current pattern formation consists of two right shoulders and one head. Due to this irregularity, the analyst has expressed doubt about the possibility of the pattern playing out. 

If the Head and Shoulder pattern eventually takes shape, it could lead to a significant drop in the XRP price, potentially bringing it down to as low as $1.15. This price level aligns with a key Fibonacci Golden Pocket retracement zone between 0.618 – 0.786.

XRP
Source: The Charting Guy on X

Notably, the analyst has described this projected price crash as the worst-case scenario for XRP. While he believes a bearish move is possible, the analyst is confident that XRP’s broader market structure is bullish.

Moreover, the Charting Guy argues that if XRP does decline to $1.15, it would likely serve as a healthy retracement in an overall bullish trend. He noted that XRP’s price has been holding the $2 level on daily closes, meaning its price action remains strong above support levels. This also indicates the possibility of an uptrend resumption that could yield higher highs and higher lows for XRP.

Key Support And Resistance Levels To Watch

The Charting Guy’s analysis of XRP’s potential Head and Shoulder pattern formation highlights several critical price levels to watch. Since XRP has consistently closed daily candles above $2, the analyst has determined this level as short-term support. 

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XRP has also been wicking during recent pullbacks in a crucial range between $1.7 and $1.9. As a result, the crypto analyst has revealed that he will be watching this area closely for a potential price bounce

The Golden Pocket retracement zone, which represents the worst-case scenario for the XRP price, is between $1.15 and $1.30. If XRP experiences a deeper price correction, lower support levels have been marked from $1.19 to $0.91.

For its resistance levels, the Charting Guy has pinpointed $2.27 as a key price point. Additionally, $3.14 – $3.32 has been identified as an upper resistance range where XRP could rally if bullish momentum resumes.

XRP
XRP trading at $2.1 on the 1D chart | Source: XRPUSDT on Tradingview.com

Featured image from Medium, chart from Tradingview.com



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BeInCrypto US Morning Briefing: Standard Chartered and Bitcoin

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Welcome to the US Morning Crypto Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

Grab a coffee to see how Standard Chartered sees early signs of institutional investors turning to Bitcoin as a hedge against equity market volatility, just as traders gear up for a potentially volatile week driven by tariff news. At the same time, Coinbase wraps up its worst quarter since the FTX collapse, and U.S. regulators inch closer to unified stablecoin legislation.

Standard Chartered Sees Signs of Bitcoin Starting to Be Used as Hedge Against Market Volatility

Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, sees signs that institutional traders are starting to use Bitcoin as a hedge against equity market volatility.

In a recent exclusive interview with BeInCrypto, Kendrick highlighted that this trend is already underway, with investors seeking alternatives to traditional instruments. “This is happening already,” Kendrick stated. “Investors used to use FX, specifically AUD, for this purpose due to its highly liquid and positive correlation to stocks, but now I think Bitcoin is being used because it is also highly liquid and trades 24/7.”

Additionally, in an investor note from late March, Kendrick expanded on Bitcoin’s evolving role in investment portfolios, suggesting that over time, Bitcoin may serve multiple purposes—both as a hedge against traditional financial market fluctuations and as a proxy for tech stocks.

He pointed out signs that markets could anticipating a less severe tariff announcement from the U.S. on April 2. “Given this has been the worst quarter for the Nasdaq since Q2 2022, there should be a degree of portfolio rebalancing (buying) that needs to take place,” Kendrick added.

As of April 1, 2025, Bitcoin has shown resilience amid broader market uncertainties. The cryptocurrency is up approximately 3.32%, trading at $84,282. This uptick comes alongside an overall increase in the global cryptocurrency market capitalization. In contrast, U.S. stock futures, including Dow Futures, S&P 500 Futures, and Nasdaq Futures, are all trending lower in pre-market trading, reflecting investor caution ahead of the anticipated tariff announcements.

Bitcoin Options Heat Up Before Trump’s “Liberation Day”

FalconXCrypto Global Co-Head of Markets, Joshua Lim, noted that in anticipation of Wednesday’s Trump-tariff “Liberation Day,” crypto funds are actively purchasing Bitcoin options at two key strike prices: $75,000 on the downside to hedge against potential losses and $90,000 on the upside to capitalize on a price surge.

Lim highlighted that the options market is pricing in a potential 4% move in Bitcoin’s price during the event. “The implied event move embedded in Bitcoin options is around 4% for the 2 April event,” he told BeInCrypto.

He also pointed out that traders are likely to keep buying put options in the short term as a protective measure, maintaining a high options cost premium. “We believe the front of the options curve will hold its premium as traders continue to hedge their portfolios or replace spot positions with limited-loss option positions,” Lim added.

Additionally, he noted a 4-point increase in the VIX, signaling that investors expect heightened volatility in the coming days and are turning to options to manage risk or capitalize on price swings. “US equities are also showing a bid in options, with the front-month VIX up 4 points to 22v from last week,” he said.

Crypto Stocks Slide: Coinbase Suffers Worst Quarter Since FTX Collapse

Coinbase is closing out its roughest quarter since the FTX collapse, with its stock tumbling over 30% since January. While it dipped nearly 1% in early U.S. pre-market trading on Monday, the stock managed to claw back losses and is now up around 1%.

Other crypto-linked companies are also feeling the pressure. Galaxy Digital Holdings has dropped over 8% in pre-market trading, while mining firms Riot Platforms and Core Scientific are only barely staying afloat, each gaining less than 0.5%.

Meanwhile, CoreWeave, which pivoted from Bitcoin mining to AI infrastructure, is struggling after a disappointing IPO. Initially aiming for a $2.7 billion raise, the company had to settle for $1.5 billion, slashing its offer price from the $47–55 range to $40 per share. Since going public last Friday, its shares are down 6.8%, with a 7.3% drop recorded in the last 24 hours.

Byte-Sized Alpha

– Today’s JOLTS report, a key gauge of U.S. job openings, could sway Bitcoin—strong data may boost the dollar and hurt crypto, while a sharp decline could fuel rate-cut hopes and lift risk assets.

– Bitcoin is off to its worst quarterly start since 2018, dropping nearly 12% in Q1 2025—but growing whale accumulation, falling exchange supply, and signs of consolidation hint at a potential rebound ahead.

Crypto scams are on the rise, with fake Gemini bankruptcy emails and a Coinbase employee breach fueling phishing attacks

OKX has appointed former NYDFS Superintendent Linda Lacewell as Chief Legal Officer, a move aimed at bolstering its regulatory credibility as the exchange accelerates global expansion into regions like Europe and the UAE.

A unified U.S. stablecoin regulation could soon become reality, as the STABLE and GENIUS Acts differ by only 20% and enjoy strong bipartisan support alongside SEC and CFTC involvement.

– A push for expanded crypto oversight is underway as incoming CFTC Chair Brian Quintenz meets with Senator Chuck Grassley to discuss regulating the crypto spot market.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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SUI Price Stalls After Major $147 Million Token Unlock

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SUI enters a critical phase today as a $147 million token unlock threatens to inject selling pressure into a market already testing key resistance levels. Despite a sharp rebound in momentum—evident in the RSI’s surge from oversold territory—SUI failed to break above the crucial 60 mark, signaling buyer hesitation.

The Ichimoku Cloud shows price action pressing against the cloud’s edge, but lacking the conviction needed for a clear breakout. With a possible golden cross forming on the EMA lines, bulls still have a chance—if they can overcome resistance at $2.50 and avoid being dragged down by post-unlock volatility.

SUI RSI Surged Since Yesterday But Failed To Break Above 60

SUI’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has jumped sharply to 58.94, up from 29.38 just a day ago, reflecting a strong shift in short-term momentum.

The RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. It typically ranges from 0 to 100. Readings below 30 suggest an asset may be oversold, while levels above 70 indicate it may be overbought.

The rapid rise in SUI’s RSI suggests buyers have stepped in aggressively after a period of heavy selling.

SUI RSI.
SUI RSI. Source: TradingView.

However, despite the impressive rebound, SUI’s RSI briefly approached but failed to break above the 60 threshold earlier today.

This level often acts as a short-term resistance during recovery phases, and the rejection may indicate lingering hesitation among buyers or profit-taking after the surge.

While the RSI nearing 60 is encouraging, a decisive move above it would be needed to confirm a breakout. For now, SUI appears to be in a recovery mode. However, the inability to push past 60 highlights that bulls are not fully in control just yet.

Ichimoku Cloud Shows Lack Of Strong Upward Momentum

SUI blockchain Ichimoku Cloud chart shows a potential breakout attempt, as the price has surged upward and is now hovering right at the edge of the Kumo (cloud).

This movement suggests bullish momentum is trying to build. However, the resistance provided by the thick, red cloud ahead could make it difficult for SUI to sustain the uptrend without stronger confirmation.

The Tenkan-sen (blue line) is starting to rise and has crossed above the Kijun-sen (red line), which is a bullish signal. However, the price still needs to clearly break and hold above the cloud to flip the overall trend from bearish to bullish.

SUI Ichimoku Cloud.
SUI Ichimoku Cloud. Source: TradingView.

For now, the cloud remains bearish and flat, indicating possible resistance and a lack of strong upward conviction.

The current position suggests that SUI is at a key decision point—either break through the cloud to initiate a trend reversal or get rejected and slip back into the previous downtrend range.

If buyers can sustain the pressure and push the price above the upper cloud boundary, it could trigger a stronger rally. But without increased volume and broader market support, the price risks getting stuck in consolidation or turning back downward.

Will SUI Rise Back To $2.80?

SUI’s EMA lines are tightening and showing signs of a potential golden cross. That happens when a short-term moving average crosses above a longer-term one—a classic bullish signal that often precedes upward momentum.

However, the price is currently grappling with a key resistance near the $2.50 level.

If bulls manage to break through this level, it could open the path for a move toward $2.83.

Price Analysis for SUI.
Price Analysis for SUI. Source: TradingView.

That said, downside risks remain, particularly with today’s $147 million token unlock, which could introduce significant selling pressure. If that selling materializes, SUI price could fall back to test the support at $2.23.

A breakdown below that level would likely shift momentum back in favor of bears. This would expose deeper supports at $2.11 and $1.96.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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