Market
Has Bitcoin (BTC) Price Topped For This Cycle?

Bitcoin (BTC) is at a critical point in its current cycle, with signs that it may be diverging from past halving patterns. Unlike previous cycles, where strong rallies followed halvings, this one has been more uncertain. Bitcoin’s market movements are now largely shaped by macroeconomic shifts and new institutional influences.
Political factors, such as Trump’s pro-crypto stance and state-level Bitcoin adoption, have also added unexpected variables. With these new dynamics in play, the question remains: has Bitcoin already topped the cycle? Or is there still room for another rally beyond $100,000?
Has BTC Detached From Other Cycles?
The current Bitcoin cycle appears to be diverging from previous ones. It’s showing a different price trajectory compared to past halvings.
Historically, Bitcoin experienced strong rallies at this point in the cycle, particularly in the 2012-2016 and 2016-2020 phases.
However, this cycle saw a surge beginning in October 2024 and December 2024, followed by consolidation in January 2025 and a correction by late February.
This contrasts with prior cycles, where Bitcoin continued rallying aggressively post-halving. The deviation suggests that macroeconomic factors, market structure changes, and the growing presence of institutional investors may be altering Bitcoin’s traditional cycle dynamics.
Unlike the retail-driven speculative booms of past halvings, Bitcoin is now treated as a more mature asset class, which influences its price movement.

Another key factor is the diminishing strength of Bitcoin’s surges as cycles progress. The exponential rallies seen in 2012-2016 and 2016-2020 far exceeded those of the 2020-2024 cycle and the current one.
While this is expected due to Bitcoin’s increasing market capitalization, it also reflects the growing influence of institutional investors, banks, and even governments. In the long term, it’s likely to introduce more stability and structured market behavior.
Despite these shifts, previous cycles also had periods of consolidation and correction before resuming their uptrend. If Bitcoin follows that precedent, this phase could be a temporary reset before another upward move.
However, given the structural changes in the market, this cycle could unfold differently, with less extreme volatility but a more prolonged and sustainable price appreciation rather than the explosive parabolic tops of the past.
Long-Term Holder MVRV Signals a Shift in Cycle Dynamics
Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder (LTH) MVRV ratio clearly demonstrates a pattern of diminishing returns across cycles. In the 2016-2020 cycle, LTH MVRV peaked at 35.8, reflecting an extreme level of unrealized profit among long-term holders before distribution began.
By the 2020-2024 cycle, this peak had dropped significantly to 12.2. It showed a lower overall multiple of unrealized profits despite Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs.
In the current cycle, LTH MVRV has so far only peaked at 4.35, indicating that long-term holders have not seen nearly the same level of liquid profits as in past cycles.
This sharp decline across cycles suggests that Bitcoin’s upside potential is compressing over time, which aligns with the broader trend of diminishing returns as the asset matures and market structure changes.

This data implies that Bitcoin’s cyclical growth phases are becoming less explosive. This is likely due to the increasing influence of institutional investors and a more efficient market.
As the market cap expands, significantly more capital inflows are required to drive the same percentage gains seen in early cycles.
While this could suggest that Bitcoin’s long-term growth is stabilizing, it does not necessarily confirm that the cycle has already peaked.
Previous cycles have had periods of consolidation before reaching final highs. Also, institutional participation could lead to more prolonged accumulation phases rather than sudden blow-off tops.
However, if diminishing MVRV peaks continue, it could mean Bitcoin’s ability to deliver extreme cycle-based returns is fading, and this cycle may already be past its most aggressive growth phase.
Bitcoin’s Long-Term Outlook
Despite the differences in this cycle, experts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, particularly with increasing adoption at the state level.
Harrison Seletsky, director of business development at SPACE ID, told BeInCrypto:
“Expectations were running high ahead of Friday’s White House Crypto Summit, but the aftermath was somewhat anticlimactic. The market didn’t react with as much excitement since the US is currently holding their confiscated BTC instead of actively buying more. However, there’s a lot more to be excited about than the market is pricing in. It’s encouraging to see that not only has President Trump signed an executive order for a crypto reserve – whatever it may look like in practice – but we’re also seeing this conversation moving ahead at the state level. The day before the Summit also saw Texas pass Senate Bill 21, which allows it to establish a state-controlled crypto reserve, consisting of Bitcoin and other digital assets. A year ago, none of us could have dreamed of this. Texas’s move could open the floodgates for other states to follow suit, as well as state and local level municipalities internationally.”
Nic Puckrin, founder of The Coin Bureau, told BeInCrypto that Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory remains tied to macroeconomic conditions. He points to the fact that investors in the current cycle had unrealistic expectations from the Bitcoin crypto reserve.
Notably, there was a growing perception that the US government would buy billions worth of new BTC, causing a supply shock. From any economic or political concept, that would not have been possible.
It’s hard to imagine Congress approving such a purchase with taxpayers’ money to invest in risk assets. This unrealistic expectation was a catalyst behind the current price corrections.
“The current crypto sell-off reveals a mismatch between expectations and reality. The reserve will now only constitute crypto that the US government already has in its ownership and it won’t be buying new BTC on the market. It’s also important to point out that neither crypto nor stock prices are at the top of Trump’s agenda. In fact, he even dismissed stock price crashes as being the work of globalists. Meanwhile, the improving regulatory landscape and promise of integration with traditional finance rails will cement crypto’s important role in the US financial landscape. It’s worth celebrating this progress, instead of complaining about the gloomy short-term backdrop,” said Puckrin.
Based on all that, this cycle appears to be different from previous ones. So, despite recent corrections, BTC may not have topped yet.
New factors like institutional adoption, Trump’s crypto stance, and geopolitical tensions make historical comparisons less reliable. Unlike past cycles, Bitcoin price action isn’t following a clear post-halving rally.
At the same time, uncertainty is higher than ever. Macro conditions, the trade war, and changing US policies are adding complexity. With Bitcoin now part of the global financial system, its price is reacting to more than just halving cycles. The path forward is unclear, but the cycle isn’t necessarily over.
Disclaimer
In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
Market
Hyperliquid (HYPE) Hits 3-Month Lows Despite High Revenue

Hyperliquid is one of the most profitable platforms in crypto right now, yet its price has been struggling, dropping over 8% in the last 24 hours and more than 24% in the past seven days. Despite its strong fundamentals, bearish momentum has kept HYPE at its lowest levels since December 2024.
However, the network’s rising revenue has outpaced Solana, Ethereum, and Raydium. This suggests underlying strength that could fuel a rebound if market conditions shift. If HYPE breaks resistance at $14.65, it could trigger a rally toward $20 or even $25.87, but failure to reclaim momentum could send it below $12.
Hyperliquid RSI Has Been Neutral Since March 4
Hyperliquid’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) is currently at 32.59, remaining in neutral territory since March 4. Suspicious high-leverage trades are raising money laundering concerns, leading to the ongoing correction.
The RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements on a scale from 0 to 100, with values above 70 indicating overbought conditions and below 30 signaling oversold conditions.
An RSI between 30 and 50 suggests weak momentum, often aligning with a downtrend or consolidation phase.

HYPE’s RSI has now stayed below 50 for nine consecutive days, reinforcing the lack of bullish momentum. With the current reading at 32.59, the asset is approaching oversold territory but hasn’t yet reached extreme levels.
This suggests that selling pressure remains dominant, but if RSI turns upward and crosses 50, it could signal the start of a stronger recovery.
Until then, Hyperliquid remains in a weak position, with price action struggling to gain upward traction.
HYPE BBTrend Has Been Negative For One Week
Hyperliquid’s BBTrend is currently at -16.69, remaining negative since March 5 and staying below -10 for the past six days.
BBTrend (Bollinger Band Trend) is an indicator that measures price momentum relative to Bollinger Bands, helping identify bullish or bearish trends.
Values above 10 indicate strong upward momentum, while values below -10 suggest strong downward pressure.

With HYPE BBTrend at -16.69, the bearish trend remains dominant, reinforcing the recent selling pressure.
Staying below -10 for several days suggests that downside momentum has been persistent, limiting any significant recovery attempts.
If the BBTrend starts moving toward 0, it could indicate a weakening downtrend, but for now, Hyperliquid remains in a clearly bearish phase.
Can HYPE Reclaim $20 In March?
Hyperliquid is currently trading at its lowest levels since December 2024, with its EMA lines signaling a strong bearish sentiment.
Short-term EMAs remain well below long-term ones, with large gaps between them indicating strong downside momentum. If the correction continues, HYPE could drop below $12, marking its lowest price in over three months.

However, Hyperliquid revenue has surged past $11 million in the last seven days, outperforming major players like Pump, Solana, Ethereum, and Raydium.
If momentum returns, HYPE could test the $14.65 resistance, with a potential rally toward $17 if broken. A stronger uptrend could push the price above $20, potentially testing $21 and even $25.87 in the coming days.
Disclaimer
In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
Market
Bitcoin Price Recovery Possible Above $85K—Will Bulls Step In?

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Bitcoin price started a recovery wave above the $80,000 zone. BTC is now rising and might aim for a move above the $84,000 and $85,000 levels.
- Bitcoin started a decent recovery wave above the $80,000 zone.
- The price is trading above $82,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
- There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $82,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
- The pair could start another increase if it clears the $84,000 and $85,000 levels.
Bitcoin Price Eyes Breakout
Bitcoin price remained strong above the $78,000 level. BTC formed a base and recently started a recovery wave above the $80,000 resistance level.
The bulls pushed the price above the $82,000 resistance level. The price surpassed the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the $91,060 swing high to the $76,820 low. However, the bears are now active near the $84,000 resistance zone.
Bitcoin price is now trading above $82,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $82,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.
On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $84,000 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the $91,060 swing high to the $76,820 low. The first key resistance is near the $85,000 level. The next key resistance could be $85,650.

A close above the $85,650 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $86,500 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $88,000 level or even $96,200.
Another Drop In BTC?
If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $84,000 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support on the downside is near the $82,000 level and the trend line. The first major support is near the $81,200 level.
The next support is now near the $80,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $78,000 support in the near term. The main support sits at $76,500.
Technical indicators:
Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – $82,000, followed by $81,200.
Major Resistance Levels – $84,000 and $85,000.
Market
Ondo Finance (ONDO) Bulls Push for a Breakout Above $1

Ondo Finance (ONDO) is up nearly 7% in the last 24 hours, attempting to reclaim a $3 billion market cap after a sharp 38% correction over the past 30 days. The recent price recovery suggests a potential trend shift, but key resistance levels must be broken for confirmation.
Indicators like the DMI and CMF show that selling pressure is fading while buying interest is increasing. If ONDO breaks past $0.90, it could rally toward $1.08 and even $1.20. However, failure to sustain momentum could lead to another drop below $0.70.
ONDO DMI Shows The Downtred Could Revert Soon
ONDO’s ADX is currently at 33.8, down from 40.5 yesterday. This indicates that while the downtrend remains strong, its intensity is starting to weaken.
The ADX (Average Directional Index) measures trend strength on a scale from 0 to 100, with values above 25 signaling a strong trend and values below 20 suggesting a weak or non-trending market.
Since Ondo Finance ADX is still well above 25, the bearish trend remains dominant, but the decline suggests that momentum could be slowing.

Meanwhile, the +DI has climbed to 21.9 from 11.18, while the -DI has dropped from 34.3 to 24.11, showing that selling pressure is fading while buying pressure is increasing.
However, since -DI remains slightly above +DI, the downtrend is still in place. If +DI continues rising and crosses above -DI, it could confirm a shift in momentum, potentially signaling a trend reversal.
Until then, Ondo Finance remains in a downtrend, but bulls are gaining ground.
Ondo Finance CMF Surged In The Last Three Days
ONDO’s Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is currently at 0.07, recovering from a negative low of -0.32 just three days ago.
The CMF measures buying and selling pressure by analyzing both price and volume, with values above 0 indicating accumulation (buying pressure) and values below 0 signaling distribution (selling pressure).
A CMF above 0.05 suggests growing bullish momentum, while prolonged negative readings often align with downtrends.

Ondo Finance CMF turned positive yesterday after spending two consecutive days in negative territory, signaling that buying pressure is increasing.
With CMF now at 0.07, capital inflows are returning, which could support further price recovery. However, since the value is still relatively low, sustained buying volume is needed to confirm a strong uptrend.
If CMF continues rising, it could indicate stronger accumulation, potentially leading to a breakout, establishing ONDO among the top Real-World Assets coins in the market.
Will ONDO Reclaim $1 Soon?
ONDO is currently recovering after dipping below $0.79 for the first time in months, following a broader correction across major RWA coins in the last 30 days.
The recent bounce suggests buyers are stepping in, but the trend remains uncertain, with key resistance levels ahead.

If it breaks above $0.90, it could continue rising toward $0.99, and a further breakout could send it to $1.08 or even $1.20.
However, if the uptrend fails and selling pressure returns, ONDO price could drop to $0.73, with the risk of falling below $0.70 for the first time since November 2024.
Disclaimer
In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
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