Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher has pointed to a promising technical setup in TOTAL3, fueling speculation that the altcoin season cycle may close. The analyst comments come as the broader crypto market sees a notable bounce, with Bitcoin (BTC) briefly crossing $93,000 and several altcoins showing strong gains.

But how soon could altcoin season actually arrive? This analysis delves into other factors that could either ignite or delay the anticipated rally.

Altcoin Season on Standby, Analyst Says

For context, TOTAL3 is the entire market capitalization of the top 125 cryptocurrencies excluding BTC and Ethereum (ETH). Historically, when this metric rises, it indicates that altcoin season could be on the horizon as long as Bitcoin dominance drops.

Deutscher’s post on X (formerly Twitter) showed the TOTAL3 monthly chart, indicating that it had formed strong support. The post also revealed that the recent rise in altcoin prices has taken the market cap above notable resistance.

“TOTAL3 (altcoin index) monthly chart. Setup looks fantastic, honestly.” Deutscher wrote on X.

While the analyst’s opinion might be valid, one obstacle that could hinder the altcoin season cycle is Bitcoin’s dominance. Bitcoin dominance refers to the ratio of BTC’s market capitalization compared to the total market capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market.

As of this writing, the BTC.D, as it is popularly known, is 61.33%. This indicates that the number one cryptocurrency still has a strong hold on the market. For alt season to commence, this ratio has to drop, which Deutscher himself admitted on November 12.

“Bitcoin dominance keeps grinding higher. Only when BTC dominance breaks down can a true alt season ignite.” The analyst emphasized.

Altcoins Surge Could Be Delayed Until BTC Drops

Currently, Blockchaincenter’s altcoin season index, which measures whether the market is in an alt season, has dropped one place to 29. About one week ago, the reading was 30. For confirmation, at least 75% of the top 50 cryptos need to outperform BTC.

Despite this uptick, the index remains well below the 75 threshold, as only 16 of the top cryptocurrencies have outpaced Bitcoin over the past 90 days.

Should that remain the case, then Bitcoin’s price might climb to a higher value before most altcoins hit new highs. However, if BTC experiences a double-digit correction, this could give way for alts to thrive.  If that happens, then alt season can officially begin.

Yesterday, the world’s largest asset manager, Blackrock, disclosed that it had expanded its tokenized money fund to other blockchains, including Move-programmed Apots (APT). This development sparked speculation that the Aptos token price could gain from it.

Initially, APT price climbed to $12.60. But as of this writing, the altcoin has dropped by 6.33%, suggesting that the integration with Blackrock is not enough to keep the price going high.

Aptos Falters Moments After Bullish Announcement

Blackrock’s announcement, which BeInCrypto reported earlier, coincided with the broader market rally, as the Aptos token price had increased by 21%. However, our finding shows that the drop in Open Interest (OI) was one reason that APT failed to hold on to the $12 mark. 

According to Santiment, APT’s OI attempted to approach $200 million on Wednesday, November 13. But it did not and has now dropped to $105.37 million.  Open Interest refers to the total number of active contracts in the futures market that have not yet been settled.

An increase in OI indicates more participants are entering the market, potentially strengthening the current trend. Conversely, a decrease in the metric may suggest that the trend is losing momentum.

Therefore, with the metric declining in Aptos’s case, there is a chance that the altcoin’s price might continue to decrease. Additionally, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator suggests that Aptos’ price may face challenges in staging a rebound.

For context, the CMF is an indicator developed to track the accumulation and distribution of an asset over a specific period. It ranges from -1 to +1. When the reading rises, it means that accumulation is ongoing, and the price can increase.

However, in APT’s situation, the reading has dropped, suggesting that selling pressure has begun to outpace buying pressure. Should this remain the same, Aptos’ price could slide lower than $11.69.

APT Price Prediction: Sub-$10 Likely

On the daily chart, Aptos faces resistance at $13.72, with support at $10.43, just below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Given the decline in trading volume, the price of Aptos could continue to slide, and bulls may struggle to maintain support at this level.

This is largely because low trading volume indicates a drop in market interest. As such, it could be challenging for buying pressure to increase. If this is the case, then APT’s price might drop to $9.85.

On the other hand, an increase in buying pressure could invalidate that prediction. Thus, if the accumulation of APT rises, the price might bounce toward $14.13.

The Donald Trump-linked meme coin MAGA (TRUMP) has experienced a sharp decline over the past week. This diverges from the broader market rally sparked by Trump’s victory in the 2024 US presidential elections. TRUMP trades at $1.48 as of this writing, marking a 35% drop in the past seven days.

With plunging buying pressure, the meme coin is on track to retest its year-to-date low. The question now is how soon TRUMP will breach this level.

MAGA Traders Continue To Dump Holdings 

TRUMP’s Aroon Down Line confirms the strength of its current downward trend. The indicator’s value is close to 100 at 78.57 at press time. 

The Aroon indicator identifies the strength and direction of a trend. When the Aroon Down Line is close to 100, the asset’s price has consistently made recent lows over the measured period. It suggests the asset has been in a strong downtrend, indicating sustained bearish momentum.

Additionally, the setup of TRUMP’s moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator confirms the rising selling pressure in the market. As of this writing, the meme coin’s MACD line (blue) rests below its signal line (orange) and is under its zero line. 

This indicator tracks an asset’s trend direction, shifts, and potential price reversal points. When the MACD line is below both the signal and zero lines, the asset’s short-term momentum is weak, signaling a potential bearish trend. Traders interpret this as a strong selling signal, as it implies that the price is likely to continue declining.

TRUMP Price Prediction: Meme Coin May Be Oversold

Currently, TRUMP trades at $1.48. If the decline continues, its next price target is its January low of $0.14, which is its year-to-date low.

However, readings from the meme coin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest that it is almost oversold and due for a price rebound. At press time, TRUMP’s RSI is at 32.58.

The RSI indicator assesses whether an asset is oversold or overbought. Its values range between 0 and 100. Values above 70 indicate that the asset is overbought and due for a correction, while values below 30 suggest that the asset is oversold and may experience a rebound. 

TRUMP’s RSI of 32.58 indicates that the meme coin is nearing the oversold threshold. Traders may start to watch for signs of a price bounce or trend shift, and if this happens, its price may climb toward $3.92.