Market
Can the Rally Last Amid Whale Hesitation?
SHIB price has been on the move recently, with a sharp rise in its 7-day MVRV ratio indicating that many holders are in profit. Whale activity has been cautious, with only modest accumulation, which could limit further price gains. Although SHIB’s EMA lines are bullish, with a golden cross forming, the token faces strong resistance ahead.
These factors together suggest that SHIB’s current rally may face challenges sustaining momentum.
SHIB 7D MVRV Hints at Correction
As one of the leading meme coins, Shiba Inu recently saw its 7-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio jump sharply from 3.1% to 9.57% in just 24 hours, alongside a 12% price surge. This spike indicates that a significant portion of SHIB holders are now in profit. The MVRV ratio measures the average gains or losses of tokens in circulation relative to their acquisition prices over the last seven days, helping gauge short-term profitability.
When the MVRV ratio increases, it often signals that more investors are in the green, which can lead to profit-taking behavior. The 7-day MVRV Ratio is a critical metric for assessing short-term market sentiment. A high ratio suggests that the asset may be overbought, indicating the potential for a price correction.
Read more: 6 Best Platforms To Buy Shiba Inu (SHIB) in 2024
Historically, SHIB’s MVRV ratio crossing the 9% mark has been a precursor to major pullbacks. The last two times SHIB’s 7D MVRV ratio exceeded this level, the token experienced significant corrections of 50% and 18% in the following weeks.
Given this historical context, while the recent price jump may appear bullish, it could also signal that SHIB price is entering a phase of heightened risk for a potential sell-off.
Whales Are Not Accumulating A Lot Of SHIB
Now, let’s analyze the movement of whales in relation to Shiba Inu. From the end of July to mid-August, whales offloaded large amounts of SHIB, coinciding with a 42% drop in price over the course of three weeks.
Analyzing whale activity is important because these large holders have significant market influence. Their transactions often signal shifts in trends. When whales dump tokens, it can suggest they are expecting a price decline. On the other hand, their accumulation is generally seen as a bullish indicator, showing confidence in future price increases.
While whales began accumulating SHIB again at the end of August, this accumulation was short-lived, and they quickly dropped their holdings again. In recent days, we’ve seen some accumulation of SHIB by whales. However, the scale of this accumulation has been relatively modest compared to previous periods.
This suggests that the recent price pump might not last long, or at the very least, that whales are not fully convinced of the strength behind the current rally. The cautious accumulation from whales signals that they are still unsure. This could indicate potential instability or a lack of confidence in the longevity of the recent upward movement.
SHIB Price Prediction: Can It Break Into $0.0002?
SHIB Exponential Moving Average (EMA) lines are currently showing a bullish trend, with a golden cross forming just a few days ago. The golden cross is a widely regarded bullish signal in technical analysis. It occurs when a short-term EMA crosses above a long-term EMA.
EMA lines differ from simple moving averages by giving more weight to recent price data. When the shorter EMA is above the longer one, it indicates bullish momentum, as buyers are pushing prices higher. Conversely, a bearish signal occurs when the short-term EMA falls below the long-term EMA, signaling downward pressure.
While SHIB’s EMA lines look promising and point to a potential continuation of the upward trend, there are strong resistance levels ahead at $0.0001763 and $0.0001846. These resistance zones have historically been tough barriers for SHIB.
Read more: Shiba Inu (SHIB) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030
Breaking through them is crucial for the coin to test the $0.0002 mark. If these levels are breached, SHIB could experience a new wave of buying pressure, pushing the price toward higher highs.
If the MVRV ratio continues to put pressure on the market, and whales maintain their cautious stance, there’s a risk that SHIB’s upward trend could reverse. In that scenario, SHIB could find itself testing critical support levels at $0.00015 and $0.00013, as meme coins are currently trying to get back to the hype from previous months.
A breakdown of these support levels could lead to a bearish shift in market sentiment, undoing much of the recent gains.
Disclaimer
In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
Market
Polymarket Faces Ban in France as US Election Betting Ends
According to a report from The Big Whale, the National Gaming Authority (ANJ), France’s gambling regulator, is preparing to block the prediction markets platform Polymarket.
Polymarket, the decentralized platform that allows users to bet on the outcome of political events, sports, and other occurrences using cryptocurrency, has gained popularity in recent months, especially with bets surrounding the US presidential election. More than $3.2 billion was reportedly wagered on the platform during this high-stakes period, with a record-breaking $294 million in volume on November 5 alone.
France Users May No Longer Access Polymarket
According to The Big Whale, a French website that covers the crypto industry, the ANJ’s impending ban comes after a French trader placed a $30 million bet on a Trump victory, reportedly attracting the regulator’s scrutiny.
The trader’s wager positioned him to make approximately $19 million in profits, a sum that has intensified concerns over Polymarket’s compliance with French gambling laws. A source close to the ANJ stated that despite Polymarket’s use of blockchain and cryptocurrency, its activities are akin to gambling, making it subject to restrictions under French law.
“We are aware of this site and we are currently examining its operation as well as its compliance with French gambling legislation,” The Big Whale reported, citing an ANJ spokesperson.
Read more: What is Polymarket? A Guide to The Popular Prediction Market
Legal expert William O’Rorke from ORWL Avocats explained that although Polymarket does not specifically target French users, its activities fall squarely under gambling regulations.
“Polymarket involves betting money on uncertain outcomes, which aligns with the legal definition of gambling,” O’Rorke noted.
Against this backdrop, the ANJ is well within its mandate to block the platform’s access in France. Accordingly, the French regulator may enforce the ban by blocking Polymarket’s domain name in France. It amy also pressure third-party players, like media outlets and online directories, to limit access to Polymarket links.
However, French users may still circumvent this by using virtual private networks (VPNs). This is because Polymarket’s crypto-based infrastructure allows for relatively anonymous participation.
France’s looming ban is not the first regulatory roadblock Polymarket has encountered. In 2022, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined Polymarket $1.4 million for failing to register as a designated contract market. The CFTC also challenged Kalshi’s operations due to questions about betting on political events.
Polymarket’s Fate After US Elections
Meanwhile, the US election was a significant catalyst for Polymarket. It drove the platform to new heights in user engagement and bet volume. Polymarket’s election-related markets have been featured on major financial platforms, including Bloomberg, highlighting the platform’s appeal to mainstream finance.
As BeInCrypto reported, Polymarket’s election betting topped $3 billion, reflecting unprecedented participation. The platform, however, faces a crossroads in its path forward. Following the climax of the US election on Wednesday, data from Dune Analytics shows a steep decline in Polymarket’s activity.
Daily active addresses and transaction volumes, which soared in the election lead-up, have notably dwindled as election-related betting winds down. For instance, Polymarket’s open interest, a key indicator of active betting engagement, dropped from $350 million to $268 million after the polls closed. Similarly, monthly new accounts have also dropped by over 41% between October and November.
Against this backdrop, Polymarket may need to diversify its market offerings or potentially embrace a new model to maintain user interest. This is considering election-related activity comprised the majority of the prediction market’s volume.
Rumors are circulating about a potential move toward a decentralized governance token, which could distribute control over Polymarket’s operations to its community. This shift would reduce the liability of the central authority by decentralizing decision-making, though it remains theoretical, with no clear timeline.
Read More: How To Use Polymarket In The United States: Step-by-Step Guide
Polymarket’s fast ascent and regulatory challenges highlight broader industry tensions between innovation and compliance. With election predictions no longer a draw and an impending ban in France, Polymarket’s future remains uncertain.
Its long-term viability may depend on how well it adapts to evolving regulatory landscapes and whether it can maintain popularity beyond election season peaks.
Disclaimer
In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
Market
XRP Price Ready to Rally? Signs Point to a Bullish Move
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Market
Solana (SOL) Rallies Strongly, Setting Sights on $200
Solana started a fresh increase above the $172 support zone. SOL price is rising and might soon aim for a move toward the $200 level.
- SOL price started a fresh increase after it settled above the $165 level against the US Dollar.
- The price is now trading above $172 and the 100-hourly simple moving average.
- There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $162 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
- The pair could continue to rise if it clears the $192 resistance zone.
Solana Price Starts Fresh Rally
Solana price formed a support base and started a fresh increase above the $162 level like Bitcoin and Ethereum. There was a strong move above the $165 and $172 resistance levels.
There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $162 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair. The price even cleared the $185 level. A high is formed at $192 and the price is now consolidating gains. It is trading above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $155 swing low to the $192 high.
Solana is now trading above $172 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $192 level. The next major resistance is near the $195 level.
The main resistance could be $200. A successful close above the $200 resistance level could set the pace for another steady increase. The next key resistance is $212. Any more gains might send the price toward the $220 level.
Another Dip in SOL?
If SOL fails to rise above the $192 resistance, it could start a downside correction. Initial support on the downside is near the $188 level. The first major support is near the $180 level.
A break below the $180 level might send the price toward the $172 zone or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $155 swing low to the $192 high. If there is a close below the $172 support, the price could decline toward the $165 support in the near term.
Technical Indicators
Hourly MACD – The MACD for SOL/USD is gaining pace in the bullish zone.
Hourly Hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for SOL/USD is above the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – $188 and $185.
Major Resistance Levels – $192 and $200.
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