Solana’s (SOL) price has faced a tough time maintaining its upward momentum, particularly after repeated failed attempts to secure $161 as a support level over the past two months. 

Another failed breach of this level recently triggered a 13% decline in SOL’s price, pushing it down to $139. As the cryptocurrency battles ongoing downward pressure, traders are left wondering if further declines are on the horizon.

Solana Traders Have a Trick up Their Sleeve

At the moment, the macro momentum for Solana is pointing toward a bearish outlook, as reflected in key technical indicators. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below the neutral line of 50.0, signaling increasing bearish momentum. RSI’s position in the bearish zone suggests that selling pressure has intensified, with little indication of a reversal in the near term.

Following Solana’s failed breach of the $161 resistance level, the buildup of bearish sentiment has gained strength. With the RSI showing no signs of recovery, it appears that SOL is set to face more downward pressure in the short term, potentially leading to further price declines.

Read more: Solana vs. Ethereum: An Ultimate Comparison

Market sentiment around Solana has also shifted to the downside. Traders are positioning themselves to capitalize on a potential further decline by placing short contracts in the Futures market. These short contracts have now surpassed long contracts as traders look to profit from SOL’s falling price. 

This sentiment shift is further evidenced by Solana’s funding rate, which has turned negative for the first time in over two weeks. The negative funding rate indicates that the market is now predominantly bearish, with traders anticipating more losses in the near future.

SOL Price Prediction: Finding Support

Solana’s price is currently trading at $139, just below the local support level of $140. Considering the ongoing bearish momentum and negative market sentiment, a further drop to $124 is more likely. This level acted as a support for SOL last month, with the cryptocurrency bouncing back from it previously.

However, if Solana fails to hold the $124 support level, a drop to $120 could be next, forming the lower limit of the consolidation range under $161. This would represent a further decline for the cryptocurrency, leaving it vulnerable to additional losses.

Read more: Solana (SOL) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030

On the other hand, if Solana manages to flip $140 into a support level, it could have a chance to rise back toward the $160 range. Breaching the local resistance at $155 would invalidate the current bearish outlook, giving SOL a renewed opportunity to recover and potentially push higher in the weeks ahead.

Sui, the native token of the Layer-1 (L1) blockchain Sui Network, has experienced a parabolic rally over the past month, reaching $1.73 — a 120% increase in 30 days.

However, market indicators signal that this rally might not last, as SUI holders are starting to sell for profit. This analysis examines potential price targets if SUI’s demand continues to decline.

Sui Sees Negative Shift in Market Sentiment

A notable indicator of the negative shift in sentiment toward SUI is its funding rate, which sits at a multi-month low of -0.067%. 

The funding rate is the periodic payment between traders who hold long positions (expecting the price to rise) and those holding short positions (expecting the price to fall). When an asset’s funding rate is negative, traders are increasingly opening short positions as they expect its price to drop. 

Read more: A Guide to the 10 Best Sui (SUI) Wallets in 2024

SUI’s sudden drop in funding rate to a multi-month low reflects the shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish. Its traders believe the price will likely decline and have begun to position themselves to profit from it.  

Moreover, SUI’s plummeting Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) confirms the falling buying pressure. As of this writing, this stands at 0.02, trending toward the zero line. 

The CMF measures money flow into and out of an asset over a specific period. When it falls, it indicates that the asset sees less buying interest. This suggests that buyers are weakening, and sellers are gaining control. 

SUI Price Prediction: A 50% Decline is on the Horizon

Readings from SUI’s moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator highlight the strengthening selling pressure in the market. The coin’s MACD line (blue) is poised to fall below its signal line (orange) at press time, hinting at a bearish reversal. 

Traders view this crossover as a sign that prices may start to decline. It indicates that sellers are gaining strength, and it may be a good time for traders to consider closing long positions or initiating short positions.

If the downtrend continues, SUI’s price could drop by 50%, retesting support at $0.86. Failure to hold this level could push the price further down to $0.46.

Read more: Which Are the Best Altcoins To Invest in October 2024?

Conversely, if demand resurges and profit-taking eases, SUI might climb to $2.17, a level last seen in March.

Alexander Grieve, Paradigm’s VP of Government Affairs, detailed what is wrong with the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) policies.

It marks the second dissection that Paradigm, an investment firm known for throwing money behind many of the crypto industry’s mainstays, has made of the infamous securities regulator.

US SEC’s Hand Always Ready To Hit Wells Notice Buzzer

Grieve slams the US SEC for “carpet-bombing” the crypto industry in the name of “investor protection.” This includes issuing Wells Notices against anything value-adding that sprouts in the crypto market.

“Under this Chair, and this Enforcement Director — if you have built anything of value in crypto, you’ve found yourself on the receiving end of a subpoena, a Wells Notice, or an enforcement action/lawsuit, or all three,” Grieve wrote.

Coinbase was one of the victims of regulatory action, receiving a Wells Notice in September 2021 regarding its proposed Lend product, just five months after the SEC approved its business model, products, and IPO. In March 2023, Coinbase received another Wells Notice.

Read more: What Does It Mean To Receive a Wells Notice From the SEC?

Similarly, the SEC sued Kraken over its staking activities, forcing the exchange to relocate those services outside the US and pay a $30 million fine. This occurred despite Kraken settling with the regulator earlier that February.

Binance, the largest crypto exchange by trading volume, has also faced regulatory scrutiny across its operations. Other cases include actions against Robinhood, Uniswap, ConsenSys, OpenSea, and D.E.B.T. Box.

Regulator Forum Shops and Uses Barbell Approach

Highlighting that the cases against Kraken, Coinbase, and Binance were each filed in different jurisdictions, Paradigm’s Vice President accused the SEC of “forum shopping.” This legal term refers to choosing the most favorable court for a claim. It’s a strategy used by litigants to increase their chances of a favorable outcome.

The Paradigm executive also criticized the SEC’s “barbell” approach to crypto regulation. According to the VP, the SEC targets smaller entities that opt for settlements over legal battles due to limited resources. The regulator then uses these precedents to pursue larger companies, leveraging the initial settlements in subsequent cases.

“This is part of the SEC’s strategy: instead of just focusing on just one single company, they sue a company and allege that all sorts of other companies/projects/tokens/protocols (who may not be able to defend themselves) are securities as part of the case,” Grieve added.

This is not the first time Paradigm has criticized the SEC. BeInCrypto recently reported the venture capitalist’s dissection of Gary Gensler’s tenure chairing the commission. The dissection came after the SEC’s joint testimony revealed 784 enforcement actions in 2023, resulting in $4.9 billion in penalties and disgorgement.

In the research, Paradigm policy manager Brendan Malone detailed that the SEC has taken 171 enforcement actions against the crypto space since 2021. The pace of enforcement escalated since Gensler started leading the commission.

Read more: Crypto Regulation: What Are the Benefits and Drawbacks?

Malone criticized the SEC for using litigation to address policy matters instead of establishing clear regulations. He further condemned the agency for targeting individuals with limited resources, aiming to set precedents on token issuance cases by pressuring them into settlements.

On the same note, Hester Peirce recently admitted to the flaws in SEC crypto policy enforcement, as the agency’s handling of cryptocurrency regulations came under scrutiny before Congress and the Senate Banking Committees last week.