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Bitcoin’s Future After Trump Tariffs

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Welcome to the US Morning Crypto Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

Grab a coffee to see how Bitcoin is holding its ground while Wall Street stumbles, why Trump’s tariffs may push the Fed into money-printing mode, and what that could mean for crypto’s next chapter. From Ethereum’s test of resilience to rising odds of a US recession, here’s everything you need to know to stay ahead.

Bitcoin Enters Its Risk-Dynamic Era Amid Tariffs and Turmoil

Bitcoin’s reaction to recent macro shocks—particularly Trump’s sweeping tariffs—has been noticeably calm compared to traditional markets, and that’s turning heads. While Wall Street stumbles harder than expected, crypto has held relatively steady.

Nexo Dispatch Editor Stella Zlatarev told BeInCrypto that this isn’t just resilience—it’s evidence that Bitcoin may be entering a new phase of market maturity.

“A 2–3% drop in crypto is a rounding error compared to past cycles,” she said, emphasizing that this stability amid chaos suggests Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative punt. “Bitcoin’s ability to weather macro turbulence without the wild swings of previous years suggests institutional investors are treating it less as a speculative punt and more as a strategic asset,” Zlatarev said.

Analysts also stressed that Bitcoin’s behavior doesn’t align with traditional asset categories.

“It’s not gold, and it’s not the yen. Instead, Bitcoin is emerging as a risk-dynamic asset – one that doesn’t crumble like high-growth stocks but also doesn’t attract the same flight-to-safety flows as traditional safe havens,” Zlatarev told BeInCrypto.

This concept of a “risk-dynamic” asset positions Bitcoin in a unique role: something that thrives in uncertainty but doesn’t collapse when the market turns.

Zlatarev from Nexo also noted that how Ethereum and other blue-chip altcoins respond next will be key.

“If ETH mirrors BTC’s performance, it strengthens the case that top-tier crypto assets are evolving into a more predictable asset class. If ETH wobbles, it reinforces that, for now, Bitcoin is in a league of its own.”

Meanwhile, the macro backdrop is shifting fast. Trump’s new “Liberation Day” tariffs have spooked global trade partners and have also sent ripple effects through prediction markets. Polymarket now gives almost 50% odds of a US recession this year—a major shift following the announcement.

Also, CME FedWatch tool shows interest rate traders have boosted the probability the US Federal Reserve will make four rate cuts this year. Eventually, this could relief the current macroeconomic pressure on Bitcoin.

fed interest rate projection for may 2025
Target Rate Probabilities for the Next Fed Meeting on May 7. Source: CME Group

Former BitMex CEO Arthur Hayes mentioned that Trump’s current tariff strategy could complicate the US bond market. In other words, pressure is building for the Fed to intervene—possibly by turning on the liquidity spigot once again.

All of this puts Bitcoin in a new spotlight. Its steadiness is no longer being dismissed as a coincidence. It may be the first sign that crypto, or at least its most mature players, is stepping out of the shadows of speculation and into the spotlight of strategic finance.

Chart of the Day

Balance of Payments: Current Account: Balance (Revenue Minus Expenditure) for the United States. Source: FRED St-Louis.

By reducing foreign demand for US Treasuries, Trump’s tariffs may force the Fed to inject more liquidity—potentially weakening the dollar and boosting Bitcoin as an alternative store of value.

Byte-Sized Alpha

Trump’s “Liberation Day” enforces 10%+ tariffs on all imports, hitting China, the EU, and Israel, triggering market drops and recession fears.

According to Standard Chartered, Bitcoin may hit $500,000 by Trump’s term end, AVAX could 10x by 2029, and Ethereum’s 2025 target drops to $4,000.

– The STABLE Act of 2025 advances with bipartisan support, aiming to tighten stablecoin rules as competition and regulatory pressure intensify.

– Bitcoin ETFs see $221 million in April inflows led by ARKB, but BTC derivatives cool with falling futures interest and bearish options sentiment.

DXY hits a 2024 low after “Liberation Day” tariffs, fueling short-term Bitcoin surge hopes amid global tensions and policy uncertainty.

– Bitcoin struggles below $85,000 amid weak sentiment, but long-term holders stay firm, keeping capitulation fears at bay.

Polymarket sees almost 50% chance of US recession as Trump’s tariffs spark market fears and trade tensions.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.





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Dogecoin (DOGE) Bleeds Further—Fresh Weekly Lows Test Investor Patience

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Dogecoin started a fresh decline from the $0.180 zone against the US Dollar. DOGE is consolidating and might struggle to recover above $0.1680.

  • DOGE price started a fresh decline below the $0.1750 and $0.170 levels.
  • The price is trading below the $0.1680 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average.
  • There was a break below a key bullish trend line forming with support at $0.170 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
  • The price could extend losses if it breaks the $0.1550 support zone.

Dogecoin Price Dips Again

Dogecoin price started a fresh decline after it failed to clear $0.180, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. DOGE dipped below the $0.1750 and $0.1720 support levels.

There was a break below a key bullish trend line forming with support at $0.170 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair. The bears were able to push the price below the $0.1620 support level. It even traded close to the $0.1550 support.

A low was formed at $0.1555 and the price is now consolidating losses. There was a minor move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $0.180 swing high to the $0.1555 low.

Dogecoin price is now trading below the $0.170 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $0.1650 level. The first major resistance for the bulls could be near the $0.1680 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $0.180 swing high to the $0.1555 low.

Dogecoin Price

The next major resistance is near the $0.1740 level. A close above the $0.1740 resistance might send the price toward the $0.180 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $0.1880 level. The next major stop for the bulls might be $0.1950.

Another Decline In DOGE?

If DOGE’s price fails to climb above the $0.170 level, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $0.160 level. The next major support is near the $0.1550 level.

The main support sits at $0.150. If there is a downside break below the $0.150 support, the price could decline further. In the stated case, the price might decline toward the $0.1320 level or even $0.120 in the near term.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for DOGE/USD is now losing momentum in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for DOGE/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $0.1600 and $0.1550.

Major Resistance Levels – $0.1680 and $0.1740.



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Bitcoin & Ethereum Options Expiry: Can Prices Stay Stable?

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The crypto market is set to see $2.58 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire today, a development that could trigger short-term price volatility and impact traders’ profitability.

Of this total, Bitcoin (BTC) options account for $2.18 billion, while Ethereum (ETH) options represent $396.16 million.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Holders Brace For Volatility

According to data on Deribit, 26,457 Bitcoin options will expire today, significantly lower than the first quarter (Q1) closer, where 139,260 BTC contracts went bust last week. The options contracts due for expiry today have a put-to-call ratio 1.25 and a maximum pain point of $84,000.

The put-to-call ratio indicates a higher volume of puts (sales) relative to calls (purchases), indicating a bearish sentiment. More traders or investors are betting on or protecting against a potential market drop.

Expiring Bitcoin Options. Source: Deribit

On the other hand, 221,303 Ethereum options will also expire today, down from 1,068,519 on the last Friday of March. With a put-to-call ratio of 1.41 and a max pain point of $1,850, the expirations could influence ETH’s short-term price movement.

Expiring Ethereum Options
Expiring Ethereum Options. Source: Deribit

As the options contracts near expiration at 8:00 UTC today, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are expected to approach their respective maximum pain points. According to BeInCrypto data, BTC was trading at $82,895 as of this writing, whereas ETH was exchanging hands for $1,790.

This suggests that prices might rise as smart money aims to move them toward the “max pain” level. Based on the Max Pain theory, options prices tend to gravitate toward strike prices where the highest number of contracts, both calls and puts, expire worthless.

Nevertheless, price pressure on BTC and ETH will likely ease after 08:00 UTC on Friday when Deribit settles the contracts. However, the sheer scale of these expirations could still fuel heightened volatility in the crypto markets.

“Where do you see the market going next? Deribit posed.

Elsewhere, analysts at Greeks.live explain the current market sentiment, highlighting a bearish outlook. This adds credence to why more traders are betting on or protecting against a potential market drop.

Bearish Sentiment Grips Markets

In a post on X (Twitter), Greeks.live reported a predominantly bearish sentiment in the options market. This follows US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement.

BeInCrypto reported that the new tariffs constituted a 10% blanket rate and 25% on autos. While this fell short of market expectations, it was still perceived as a negative development, sparking widespread concern among traders.

According to the analysts, options flow reflected this pessimism, with heavy put buying dominating trades.

“Trump’s tariffs are viewed as severe trade disruption… The market’s initial positive reaction with a price spike to $88 was seen as gambling/short covering, followed by a sharp reversal as reality set in about economic impacts. Options flow remains heavily bearish, with traders noting significant put buying, including “700 79k puts for end of April,” wrote Greeks.live analysts.

Traders snapping up 700 $79,000 puts for the end of April signals expectations of a sustained downturn. According to the analysts, the consensus among traders points to continued volatility, with a potential “bad close” below $83,000 today, Friday, April 4. Such an action would erase the earlier pump entirely.

Meanwhile, many traders are adopting bearish strategies, favoring short calls or put calendars. Shorting calls is reportedly deemed the most effective approach in the current climate.

Therefore, while the market’s initial reaction to Trump’s tariffs was a mix of hope and reality, the reversal reflects the broader economic fallout from Trump’s policies. As traders brace for choppy conditions, the bearish outlook in options trading paints a cautious picture for the days ahead.

Global supply chain disruptions and economic uncertainty remain at the forefront of market concerns.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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XRP Battle Heats Up—Can Bulls Turn the Tide?

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XRP price started a fresh decline below the $2.050 zone. The price is now consolidating and might face hurdles near the $2.10 level.

  • XRP price started a fresh decline below the $2.120 and $2.050 levels.
  • The price is now trading below $2.10 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
  • There is a short-term declining channel forming with resistance at $2.0680 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
  • The pair might extend losses if it fails to clear the $2.10 resistance zone.

XRP Price Attempts Recovery

XRP price extended losses below the $2.050 support level, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price declined below the $2.00 and $1.980 support levels. A low was formed at $1.960 and the price is attempting a recovery wave.

There was a move above the $2.00 and $2.020 levels. The price surpassed the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2.235 swing high to the $1.960 low. However, the bears are active below the $2.10 resistance zone.

The price is now trading below $2.10 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price might face resistance near the $2.070 level. There is also a short-term declining channel forming with resistance at $2.0680 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair.

The first major resistance is near the $2.10 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2.235 swing high to the $1.960 low. The next resistance is $2.120.

XRP Price

A clear move above the $2.120 resistance might send the price toward the $2.180 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $2.2350 resistance or even $2.40 in the near term. The next major hurdle for the bulls might be $2.50.

Another Decline?

If XRP fails to clear the $2.10 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $2.00 level. The next major support is near the $1.960 level.

If there is a downside break and a close below the $1.960 level, the price might continue to decline toward the $1.920 support. The next major support sits near the $1.90 zone.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now losing pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $2.00 and $1.960.

Major Resistance Levels – $2.10 and $2.120.



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