A new report on February CEX data shows Binance and Coinbase losing nearly 30% of their traffic. Spot and derivatives trading volumes have also declined, reflecting skittishness from retail investors.

Both of these firms ostensibly had positive developments in February, but they still underperformed relative to their competitors. Bearish factors in the crypto market may be leading to a contraction.

Binance and Coinbase Trail Most CEXs

Centralized exchanges (CEXs) are a critical part of the crypto economy and an important indicator of its health. Towards the end of 2024, CEX trading volumes soared to $6.4 trillion in Q4.

However, broader market doldrums are taking their toll. According to a new report, CEX traffic fell sharply as major firms like Coinbase and Binance approached 30% losses.

CEX traffic across the industry fell approximately 20%, making Binance and Coinbase clear outliers. To be fair, both firms slightly outperformed the average of all CEXs in spot trading volume.

Nonetheless, user traffic is a critically important metric for exchanges. It’s worrying that they fell so short of most competing firms.

Coinbase, one of the world’s largest CEXs, fell even further than Bybit in February. Bybit fell victim to the largest hack in crypto history in late February, and the resultant traffic losses began quickly afterwards.

By March, a significant number of its users switched to Binance, but this may not have fully materialized in February.

Still, as CEX traffic goes, it doesn’t seem to make sense that Coinbase is even in the same conversation as Bybit. The firm should ostensibly be doing well as the SEC dropped a major lawsuit in February.

Binance, too, has seen bullish news, opening a community vote to list Pi Network that turned into a total policy shift by March.

In other words, declining CEX traffic and trade volume could be a bearish sign. OKX grew 15%, and Bitget grew 6%, but most of the largest exchanges declined significantly.

This indicates a decline in market appeal for retail investors. Throughout March, weak investor sentiment continued for four weeks, and US investors led the market sell-off.

Binance and Coinbase may have both received positive news, but this hasn’t stopped the broader trends impacting all CEXs. Even if Coinbase ended its legal problems, its new political influence hasn’t helped its position.

In terms of traffic, Binance slightly benefited after the Bybit hack, but its listing policies are still controversial. And underlying it all, the market is in a state of fear.

Crypto analyst ElmoX has asserted that the XRP price is still bullish despite the recent crypto market crash. His analysis revealed that XRP is set to face major resistance at $2.9, although he is confident that the crypto will eventually break this resistance and rally to as high as $20. 

XRP Price Faces Resistance At $2.9 But Could Still Rally To $20

In a TradingView post, ElmoX outlined two scenarios for the XRP price as it eyes a rally to $20, although he noted that the crypto will retest the major resistance at around $2.92 either way, on its way to a new all-time high (ATH).  For the first scenario, the analyst stated that XRP would break this resistance and then skyrocket to $20. 

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Meanwhile, in the second scenario, ElmoX stated that the XRP price could face another rejection, sending it below the $1.5 level before it witnesses a bullish reversal and rallies to a new ATH. The analyst revealed that he is betting on this second scenario since there is usually a swift crash before an impulsive move to the upside. 

ElmoX remarked that the XRP price has barely corrected, which is also why he believes there could still be a massive crash before a rally to a new ATH. Meanwhile, the analyst didn’t provide an exact timing for the potential price correction and subsequent rally to a new ATH and the $20 price target. 

Instead, he simply told market participants to be patient. He further warned that the XRP price might sit in price discovery until at least mid-July. His accompanying chart showed that XRP will first drop to as low as $1.20 before it witnesses an impulsive move to as high as $20. 

The Altcoin Records A Bullish Close

In an X post, crypto analyst CasiTrades noted that although the XRP price briefly broke below the $2 trendline, the candle closed back above this trendline, reclaiming the consolidation range. She remarked that this is exactly what bulls needed to see. However, the analyst added that a confirmation is needed with XRP holding the range between $2 and $2.03 as support. 

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CasiTrades stated that a breakdown from consolidation usually leads to further downsides, but the XRP price managed to recover the level quickly, showing that buyers are stepping in. She also noted that the bullish divergence is still holding up to the 1-hour RSI even after the dip with selling pressure weakening, which suggests a shift in momentum is possible. 

If the XRP price holds the support between $2 and $2.03, CasiTrades predicts that the crypto could bounce and rally toward $2.25 and $2.70. On the other hand, if XRP loses this level, she stated that the next major support sits at $1.90 which is the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. Meanwhile, there is also the possibility that XRP could drop to the 0.618 Fib retracement level at $1.54. 

At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $2.10, down over 4% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

Cardano (ADA) has faced a lack of growth in recent weeks despite initially grabbing investors’ attention during a brief rally. 

While ADA’s price action showed some promise, the momentum quickly faded, and now, despite entering an opportunity zone, ADA holders remain skeptical, and investor participation has dropped significantly.

Cardano Investors Need To Step Up

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio for Cardano shows that ADA holders who purchased within the last month are currently facing 12% losses. This decline has brought ADA into the opportunity zone, which lies between -8% and -22%. Historically, this zone has been a reversal point for ADA, presenting a potential for recovery if investors decide to accumulate at low prices.

However, despite being in the opportunity zone, there is little indication that ADA holders are acting on this opportunity. The skepticism among investors, driven by the altcoin’s failure to sustain recent rallies, has made it difficult for ADA to capitalize on this potential recovery window. 

The overall macro momentum for Cardano has also been affected by diminishing participation. Active addresses on the network are currently below the average threshold of 38,600, with the count sitting at 33,700. This decrease in active addresses indicates a decline in investor participation and confidence. 

During ADA’s brief rally at the beginning of the month, the number of active addresses surged, but the failure to sustain that momentum has caused skepticism to take over. With investor participation dwindling, ADA’s price could face further challenges if interest in the asset continues to wane.

ADA Price Is Facing Recovery Challenge

Cardano’s price is currently at $0.72 after falling 31% in the last few days. This decline followed ADA’s failure to breach the $0.99 level and flip it into support. The inability to reclaim this critical resistance level has led to further losses, and ADA is now struggling to recover.

As ADA moves farther away from the $1.00 price point, it continues to face challenges in terms of both investor confidence and broader market conditions. At this point, ADA is likely to experience consolidation above the $0.70 level, though a further drop to $0.62 remains a possibility, especially if investor sentiment remains weak.

However, if ADA manages to flip $0.77 into support, it could signal the beginning of a recovery. Successfully holding above this level could push the price back toward $0.85 or higher, invalidating the current bearish outlook. This would require renewed investor interest and a favorable shift in market conditions to support ADA’s upward movement.