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Bitcoin Price $61,000 Breakout Explained As DXY Hits 2024 Lows

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All eyes are on Bitcoin (BTC) after it reclaimed the $61,000 mark, following the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. The recent price movement has reignited interest in the cryptocurrency, especially given Bitcoin’s correlation with global liquidity.

This correlation also draws attention to the US dollar index (DXY), as changes in the DXY can impact BTC. Typically, when the dollar weakens, Bitcoin strengthens due to investors seeking alternative assets. 

DXY Records New 2024 Lows: a Look at Macro Drivers

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has formed lower highs since June, hitting fresh lows in 2024. After breaking below the January 1 low of $101.340, the DXY dropped further, bottoming at $100.923 on Wednesday.

At the time of writing, it’s trading at $101.311. A falling DXY is bullish for risk assets like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

DXY dollar index performance
DXY and Money Supply Charts. Source: TradingView

On the other hand, global liquidity (M2) is trending upward. M2 measures the total amount of money circulating in the global economy, including checking accounts, savings accounts, and other liquid assets that can be quickly converted into cash.

Risk assets, including Bitcoin, typically correlate with rising liquidity. The relationship between Bitcoin’s price and M2 expansion reflects broader market sentiment and economic conditions. A higher M2 expansion indicates a loose monetary policy and an increased money supply, which often boosts risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

“BTC is the most sensitive asset to liquidity. Historically, a 10% increase in global liquidity has corresponded in a 40% increase in Bitcoin’s price,” wrote Cryptonary.

Read more: How to Protect Yourself From Inflation Using Cryptocurrency

The Federal Reserve is likely to ease monetary policy at its next meeting, according to the FOMC minutes released on Wednesday. However, this depends on data continuing to align with expectations. The minutes also indicated that some policymakers supported a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut during the July meeting. Despite this, the Fed chose to keep rates unchanged, as BeInCrypto reported.

Based on the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 50 bps rate cut in September has increased to 30.5%, reflecting growing market sentiment toward a potential easing of policy.

Fed rate cut probabilities
Fed Rate Cut Probabilities. Source: CME Fed Watchtool

However, it’s important to note that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has consistently urged caution, highlighting that cutting rates too soon remains a major concern. Even so, the FOMC minutes often provide critical insights into policymakers’ evolving views on interest rates. This is particularly relevant if there’s a shift in their stance.

All eyes will be on Powell’s upcoming speech on Friday at the Jackson Hole symposium, as markets look for more clues about the Fed’s next steps. As BeInCrypto reported, Powell’s remarks could trigger market volatility, especially in risk-on assets like Bitcoin.

The prospect of lower interest rates generally benefits risk assets, which aligns with Bitcoin’s recent move above $61,000. The price has broken above the symmetrical triangle, but confirmation of this breakout is still pending. Markets will closely monitor Powell’s comments for further direction.

Read more: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030

Bitcoin price analysis
BTC/USDT 1D Chart. Source: TradingView

A stable candlestick close above $60,000, supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding above 50, would confirm the continuation of Bitcoin’s uptrend. For further upside, Bitcoin must break through the supply zone between $65,777 and $68,424. If this resistance is flipped into support, known as a bullish breaker, it could pave the way for a push toward a new all-time high.

On the flip side, Bitcoin could fall back below $60,000, breaching the upper trendline of the symmetrical triangle. In a worst-case scenario, further selling pressure could drive BTC below the triangle’s lower trendline and into the demand zone.

If buying pressure within the support zone between $53,485 and $57,050 fails to counteract the sellers, Bitcoin’s price could drop even further, potentially targeting the liquidity residing below $52,398. This would mark a downside move, indicating a possible reversal in trend.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Don’t Fall for These Common Crypto Scams

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ZachXBT, a well-known blockchain investigator, recently shared two key “minimum checks” on Telegram to avoid crypto scams.

He emphasized that users must accept full financial responsibility if they take risks in these situations and added that recovering lost funds would be extremely difficult.

Evaluating a Project’s Credibility is Crucial

ZachXBT highlighted two critical scenarios: depositing funds into forked DeFi protocols on newly launched EVM chains and getting scammed by projects with few smart followers on Kaito.

“If you make either of these decisions, it is your own personal choice to risk funds, and I will NOT help you,” ZachXBT stressed.

Many newly launched DeFi protocols on EVM chains are replicas of existing ones. Their teams often do not create original code but instead, fork from established protocols. This process requires minimal technical skills yet introduces significant security risks.

A recent incident highlighted the risks in the DeFi space. The DeFi protocol SIR.trading was reportedly hacked, leading to an estimated loss of $350,000. Despite the project’s documentation promoting it as a “new DeFi protocol for safer leveraged trading,” it acknowledged the risks related to smart contract vulnerabilities.

This case illustrates how new DeFi protocols often become targets for hackers. Additionally, in late March, the DeFi lending protocol Abracadabra suffered a loss of approximately $13 million due to an exploit involving collateralized tokens.

The second situation ZachXBT warned about involves getting “rugged” (falling victim to a rug pull) by projects with few smart followers on Kaito. Kaito is an AI-powered analysis tool that measures real community interest. He advised that checking followers’ numbers and quality is a basic step to avoid falling for projects that use fake engagement or empty marketing hype.

Investor Xero agreed with ZachXBT, stating that Kaito can be a credibility assessment tool.

“Kaito has become an amazing security and reputation tool that I value over others. It can help you identify an impersonator or a new rug project fast. If a 40k+ follower project isn’t connecting with real smart followers, it’s not legit,” Investor Xero commented.

Other Emerging Crypto Scams

In addition to ZachXBT’s warnings, several new scam tactics have recently been flagged.

Investor Jerome warned about a scheme that exploits browsers’ automatic download function to trick users into downloading malicious software.

Another method involves scammers creating and sending small transactions. They would be often as little as 0.001 tokens—using fake wallet addresses that closely resemble legitimate ones. Their goal is to deceive users into copying and pasting the fraudulent address when making future transactions.

Additionally, Microsoft has identified StilachiRAT, a new remote access trojan specifically designed to target cryptocurrency wallets and login credentials.

According to a Chainalysis report, from 2021 to 2024, decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms have been the primary targets of crypto hacks.

Amount of Funds Stolen by Victim Platform Type. Source: Chainalysis
Amount of Funds Stolen by Victim Platform Type. Source: Chainalysis

The report explains that DeFi platforms may be more vulnerable because developers prioritize rapid growth and launch over security measures. This lack of security focus makes them prime targets for hackers.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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This Is How Dogecoin Price Reacted To Elon Musk’s Comment

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Dogecoin has faced a series of setbacks recently, including a failed breakout attempt that led to a decline in its price. This downward movement was further exacerbated by a recent comment from Elon Musk, which cast doubt on Dogecoin’s future. 

However, despite these challenges, the altcoin is showing some signs of recovery, largely driven by long-term holders (LTHs) who accumulate more DOGE at current low prices.

Dogecoin Is Facing Mixed Signals

Dogecoin’s Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio has spiked significantly, reaching a three-month high. This suggests that the network’s value does not match the number of transactions, pointing to a possible lack of investor confidence. 

Elon Musk’s recent comment regarding DOGE further fueled the discourse surrounding the cryptocurrency. He clarified that the US government does not intend to use Dogecoin in any form, which led to some negative sentiment. This statement dampened expectations for the coin, although it hasn’t completely derailed its market standing.

Dogecoin NVT Signal.
Dogecoin NVT Signal. Source: Glassnode

The macro momentum of Dogecoin shows signs of stabilizing, as evidenced by the recent spike in the HODLer Net Position Change. LTHs have been actively accumulating DOGE during the recent dip, which indicates strong conviction among these holders.

This accumulation provides a level of support, potentially helping the coin recover and preventing further price declines. The increased position change suggests that LTHs are confident in the long-term viability of Dogecoin despite recent market turbulence and Musk’s controversial comment.

This continued accumulation by LTHs could lead to a floor forming under Dogecoin’s price, providing a buffer against further bearish pressures. As the market stabilizes and sentiment shifts, these holders could become a driving force that will trigger the next upward movement.

Dogecoin HODLer Net Position Change
Dogecoin HODLer Net Position Change. Source: Glassnode

DOGE Price Stumbles, But Can It Recover?

Dogecoin is currently trading at $0.163, with the price just below the support level of $0.164. Over the last five days, the coin has experienced a 16% decline following a failed attempt to break through the $0.198 resistance level. This failure to breach key resistance levels indicates that DOGE may not experience immediate price gains without external catalysts.

Given the current market conditions, it’s likely that Dogecoin will not experience significant declines in the near future. The coin may reclaim $0.164 as support and continue consolidating just below the $0.198 resistance. However, this consolidation could persist until stronger market cues emerge to push the price higher.

Dogecoin Price Analysis.
Dogecoin Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

The only scenario in which this bullish-neutral outlook would be invalidated is if Musk’s comment causes further damage to DOGE’s price. In that case, the meme coin could dip to $0.147, extending its recent losses. A sustained downturn would signal more negative sentiment in the market and potentially halt Dogecoin’s recovery.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Bitcoin Price Nears $80,000; Fuels Death Cross Potential

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Bitcoin’s recent price action has shown some concerning signs. The crypto king has failed to break through key resistance levels, leaving it vulnerable to further declines. 

As Bitcoin inches closer to testing the $80,000 support level, the potential for a Death Cross looms, increasing bearish sentiment in the market.

Bitcoin Investors Are Skeptical

Short-Term Holders (STHs), who buy at higher prices, are primarily responsible for the ongoing losses. These investors have been actively noting losses in response to Bitcoin’s volatile market conditions, reflecting the unpredictable environment that has made it difficult for new investors to navigate.

Meanwhile, Long-Term Holders (LTHs) continue to realize profits, benefiting from their extended market presence. However, the current market conditions show stagnation in new capital inflows, with LTH profits offset by STH losses. This creates weaker demand and resistance, signaling a potential slowdown in price momentum.

Maintaining bullishness in the market typically requires consistent capital inflows, but the market now seems to be lacking that crucial support. The overall sentiment reflects a neutral stance, with both profit-taking and loss-realization balancing out.

Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss
Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss. Source: Glassnode

The crypto king’s macro momentum is showing additional signs of bearish pressure, particularly with the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 200-day EMA is less than 3% away from crossing the 50-day EMA, which would result in a Death Cross. This technical pattern has historically signaled significant corrections in price, marking a potential end to Bitcoin’s 18-month-long Golden Cross.

As the EMAs approach this critical point, traders and investors are closely watching for any signs of a correction. The fear of a Death Cross brings further concern to Bitcoin’s price stability. If the 50-day EMA crosses below the 200-day EMA, it could trigger more sell-offs, intensifying the bearish sentiment in the market.

Bitcoin Death Cross Nears
Bitcoin Death Cross Nears. Source: TradingView

Is BTC Price Primed For Further Decline?

Bitcoin is currently trading at $82,248, nearing the key psychological support level of $80,000. Despite attempts at a breakout, Bitcoin has failed to move beyond the two-month-long broadening descending wedge pattern. This pattern suggests that Bitcoin could be on the brink of further decline.

If the downward momentum persists, Bitcoin is likely to fall through the $80,000 support level and approach $76,741. This scenario would reinforce the bearish outlook, especially considering the technical indicators and the lack of strong buying support. A breakdown below these levels could signal a deeper correction, with the potential for further declines.

Bitcoin Price Analysis.
Bitcoin Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, this short-term bearish thesis can be invalidated if Bitcoin’s price manages to reclaim $82,761 as support. If Bitcoin breaks through the $85,000 barrier, it could break out of the current pattern, signaling a potential reversal. A strong rally above $86,822 would suggest a resumption of the bullish trend, invalidating the bearish momentum that currently dominates the market.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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