Market
Bitcoin (BTC) Short-Term Holders Face Major Losses
In recent months, a cohort of Bitcoin (BTC) holders has been notably affected by the coin’s struggle to stabilize above $70,000. This group comprises short-term holders (STHs) — investors who have held the asset for less than 155 days.
While the rest of the market remains profitable despite BTC’s price troubles, its STHs continue to record losses in their investments.
Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Face Record Losses
In its new report, on-chain data provider Glassnode found that BTC’s STHs continue to sit on more unrealized losses than the rest of the market. Describing them as the “primary cohort at risk,” Glassnode noted that the magnitude of the losses incurred by this category of coin holders has increased over the past few months.
The on-chain analytics firm assessed BTC’s STH market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio. It found that its value has remained below one and is now at “ levels similar to Aug 2023 during the recovery rally after the FTX failure.”
When an asset’s MVRV ratio is below one, its market value is less than the average price paid to acquire it by holders. Therefore, if they sell, they would incur losses.
“This tells us that the average new investor is holding an unrealized loss. Generally speaking, until the spot price reclaims the STH cost basis of $62.4k, there is an expectation for further market weakness,” Glassnode said.
Due to recent spike in losses, Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) have adjusted their behavior. According to Glassnode, “the wealth held by new-demand investors has declined over recent months” as these STHs distributed their coins.
Conversely, long-term holders (LTHs) have reduced profit-taking and ramped up accumulation, showing contrasting strategies between the two groups. This pattern is evident amongst BTC whales as well.
“For Bitcoin, the main chart that continues to look encouraging is this one showing that whales continue to accumulate. Over the past 3 months, 10+ BTC wallets have added a combined 34.2K more coins,” Brian Quinlivan, lead analyst at Santiment, noted in an exclusive interview with BeinCrypto.
Read more: What Happened at the Last Bitcoin Halving? Predictions for 2024
BTC Price Prediction: More Pain Ahead
BTC’s technical setup suggests that the leading coin is poised for a further decline. At press time, its Awesome Oscillator, which measures market momentum, is negative.
At -1,545, BTC’s Awesome Oscillator signals that its short-term price movements are weaker than its longer-term movements, suggesting downward momentum. Additionally, its Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), in a downtrend, signals liquidity exit from the BTC market.
Read more: Bitcoin Halving History: Everything You Need To Know
If this trend continues, the king coin’s price may fall to $53,968. However, if buying activity outweighs selling pressure, the coin’s value may rally to $57,291.
Disclaimer
In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
Market
Can Bulls Stage A Comeback?
Chainlink is facing increasing bearish pressure as its price continues to edge lower, signalling a potential move toward the further downside. After a period of consolidation, the bears have regained control, pushing Chainlink closer toward the $9.28 support level.
However, bulls may not be ready to give up just yet. With market sentiment fluctuating, the possibility of a bullish comeback looms on the horizon. By examining key technical indicators and market sentiment, we seek to determine if LINK is poised for a deeper decline or if bullish forces could reverse the current trend and drive the price upward.
At the time of writing, Chainlink was trading around $10.59, marking a 0.10% decline over the past day. The cryptocurrency’s market capitalization stood at approximately $6.4 billion, while trading volume exceeded $206 million, showing increases of 0.10% and 15.36%, respectively.
Current Market Sentiment: Bearish Pressure Mounts On Chainlink
On the 4-hour chart, following a successful drop below the $11 mark, LINK has continued to experience negative momentum, dropping toward the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). As the cryptocurrency approaches the 100-day SMA, it could either find temporary support or risk further declines if the bearish momentum continues to intensify.
Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart, has dropped below the 50% threshold, now sitting at 42%. With the RSI attempting to move deeper into the oversold territory, it shows that bears are gaining control, and an extended decrease could be on the horizon if buying interest does not pick up soon.
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On the daily chart, Chainlink is currently making a bearish movement, toward the $7.14 trading below the 100-day Simple Moving Average. This movement underscores strong selling pressure and negative market sentiment, signaling a heightened risk of further losses.
Lastly, the 1-day RSI reflects increasing pessimistic pressure on LINK, as the indicator has fallen to 47% after briefly crossing above the 50% threshold. This drop highlights mounting selling activity and signals a stronger potential for additional downward movement.
Will LINK See A Recovery Or Further Decline?
As the cryptocurrency approaches the $9.28 support level, which could spark a potential rebound, technical indicators like the RSI still point to strong selling pressure. If LINK fails to hold this level, a break below could result in persistent declines, potentially testing the $7.14 support level and even lower thresholds.
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However, should Chainlink manage to hold above this crucial support level, it could set the stage for a potential upward move toward the $11.10 resistance. A successful breakout through this resistance could ignite a significant rally, paving the way for the price to aim for the next key resistance at $12.44. If bullish momentum continues to build, Chainlink may even reach higher levels, extending the rally beyond current resistance points.
Featured image from Medium, chart from Tradingview.com
Market
Bitcoin Price Bounces Back, But Can It Sustain Above $60K?
Bitcoin price started another increase above the $58,500 resistance. BTC is back above $60,000 and again struggling to continue higher.
- Bitcoin is correcting gains from the $61,200 resistance zone.
- The price is trading above $59,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
- There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $60,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
- The pair could climb again if it stays above the $59,400 support zone.
Bitcoin Price Reclaims $60K
Bitcoin price remained supported above the $57,500 level. BTC formed a base and started another increase above the $58,500 resistance zone. There was a clear move above the $60,000 level.
The price tested the $61,200 resistance zone. A high was formed at $61,300 and the price is now correcting gains. There was a move below the $60,500 level. The price dipped below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $57,488 swing low to the $61,300 high.
Bitcoin is now trading above $59,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $60,500 level. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $60,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.
The first key resistance is near the $60,650 level. A clear move above the $60,650 resistance might start a steady increase in the coming sessions. The next key resistance could be $61,200. A close above the $61,200 resistance might spark more upsides. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $62,500 resistance.
More Downsides In BTC?
If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $60,500 resistance zone, it could continue to move down. Immediate support on the downside is near the $60,000 level.
The first major support is $59,750. The next support is now near the $59,400 zone and the 100 hourly Simple moving average or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $57,488 swing low to the $61,300 high. Any more losses might send the price toward the $58,450 support in the near term.
Technical indicators:
Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – $60,000, followed by $59,400.
Major Resistance Levels – $60,500, and $61,200.
Market
BNB Price Set to Outperform: Is a Breakout Coming Soon?
BNB price started a fresh increase above the $542 resistance zone. The price is now consolidating gains and might aim for more gains above $550.
- BNB price started a fresh increase above the $540 resistance zone.
- The price is now trading below $550 and the 100-hourly simple moving average.
- There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $550 on the hourly chart of the BNB/USD pair (data source from Binance).
- The pair must stay above the $540 pivot level to start another increase in the near term.
BNB Price Regains Traction
In the past few days, BNB outperformed Ethereum and Bitcoin. It remained stable above $525 and started another increase above the $535 resistance zone.
There was a move above the $542 and $545 resistance levels. The price climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $562 swing high to the $527 low. However, the bears are now active near the $550 resistance zone.
The price is now trading below $550 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. If there is a fresh increase, the price could face resistance near the $550 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $550 on the hourly chart of the BNB/USD pair. The trend line is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $562 swing high to the $527 low.
The next resistance sits near the $558 level. A clear move above the $558 zone could send the price higher. In the stated case, BNB price could test $565. A close above the $565 resistance might set the pace for a larger move toward the $580 resistance. Any more gains might call for a test of the $592 level in the near term.
Are Dips Supported?
If BNB fails to clear the $550 resistance, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $544 level. The next major support is near the $540 level.
The main support sits at $535. If there is a downside break below the $535 support, the price could drop toward the $520 support. Any more losses could initiate a larger decline toward the $505 level.
Technical Indicators
Hourly MACD – The MACD for BNB/USD is losing pace in the bullish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BNB/USD is currently above the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – $540 and $535.
Major Resistance Levels – $550 and $558.
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