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Bitcoin Bear Market Ahead? Analyst Warns of 33% Price Drop

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According to Timothy Peterson, author of Metcalfe’s Law as a Model for Bitcoin Value, the crypto industry could be on the brink of another bear market.

This analysis comes as the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintains its cautious stance on interest rates despite persisting economic uncertainties.

Analyst Explains How a Bear Market Could Unfold

In his recent analysis, shared on X (Twitter), Peterson warned that the market is currently overvalued. This, he says, makes it vulnerable to a downturn. While such a decline needs a trigger, he suggests that the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates steady could be enough to set it off.

“It’s time to talk about the next bear market. There’s no reason to think it couldn’t happen now. The valuation justifies it. What it needs is a trigger. I think that trigger may be as simple as the Fed not cutting rates at all this year,” wrote Peterson.

Peterson’s analysis draws parallels between past market downturns and current conditions. Using the NASDAQ as a reference point, he estimates that a bear market could last anywhere from 7 to 14 months.

Given that the NASDAQ is currently 28% overvalued, he anticipates a decline of about 17%, bringing the index down to 15,000.

Nasdaq Price Performance
Nasdaq Price Performance. Source: Peterson on X

Applying these projections to Bitcoin, Peterson expects a roughly 33% drop, pushing Bitcoin’s price down to around $57,000.

“Multiply by 1.9. 17% drop in NASDAQ = 33% drop in BTC -> $57k,” Peterson added.

However, he notes that opportunistic investors could step in early. Such an intervention could prevent the Bitcoin price from falling that low, potentially finding support around $71,000.

This aligns with a recent analysis from Arthur Hayes. As BeInCrypto reported, the BitMex founder claimed Bitcoin could slump to $70,000 before a potential rebound.

Analysts also highlighted Bitcoin’s air gap below $93,198, with little to no significant support until around the $70,000 range.

Fed’s Role in the Market Downturn

Meanwhile, about a month ago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates. He reiterated these remarks during his speech last week. speaking at a policy forum in New York, Powell emphasized the need for patience.

“We do not need to be in a hurry, and are well positioned to wait for greater clarity,” Powell stated.

Powell’s remarks come amid economic uncertainty fueled by President Donald Trump’s policy changes in trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. With inflation hovering around 2.5%, the Fed is focused on addressing these challenges cautiously.

Despite market expectations for rate cuts this year, Powell has made it clear that the Fed will wait and see before adjusting monetary policy.

Adding to concerns about an impending Fed-inspired downturn, Bitcoin recently dropped following the Fed’s warning of a possible recession. The Fed projected a 2.8% decline in GDP for the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, triggering fears of economic instability. This had influenced investor sentiment negatively.

Despite these warnings, Peterson remains unconvinced that a full-fledged bear market is imminent. He argues that current market conditions are not as euphoric as those of previous bubbles. The analyst also explains that bearish sentiment among investors could indicate a long-term buying opportunity rather than a sell signal.

BTC Price Performance
BTC Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

BeInCrypto data shows Bitcoin was trading for $86,026 as of this writing, down 0.1% since Sunday’s session opened.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Ethereum Price Dips Again—Time to Panic or Opportunity to Buy?

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Ethereum price started a fresh decline from the $1,690 zone. ETH is now consolidating and might decline further below the $1,580 support zone.

  • Ethereum started a fresh decline after it failed to clear $1,700 and $1,720.
  • The price is trading below $1,620 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
  • There was a break below a new connecting bullish trend line with support at $1,625 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
  • The pair could start a fresh increase if it clears the $1,640 resistance zone.

Ethereum Price Faces Rejection

Ethereum price formed a base above $1,550 and started a fresh increase, like Bitcoin. ETH gained pace for a move above the $1,600 and $1,620 resistance levels.

The bulls even pumped the price above the $1,650 zone. A high was formed at $1,690 and the price recently corrected gains. There was a move below the $1,640 support zone. Besides, there was a break below a new connecting bullish trend line with support at $1,625 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD.

The price tested the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,472 swing low to the $1,690 high. Ethereum price is now trading below $1,625 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.

On the upside, the price seems to be facing hurdles near the $1,620 level. The next key resistance is near the $1,640 level. The first major resistance is near the $1,650 level. A clear move above the $1,650 resistance might send the price toward the $1,690 resistance.

Ethereum Price
Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

An upside break above the $1,690 resistance might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $1,750 resistance zone or even $1,800 in the near term.

More Losses In ETH?

If Ethereum fails to clear the $1,640 resistance, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $1,580 level. The first major support sits near the $1,555 zone and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,472 swing low to the $1,690 high.

A clear move below the $1,555 support might push the price toward the $1,525 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $1,450 support level in the near term. The next key support sits at $1,420.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACDThe MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSIThe RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 zone.

Major Support Level – $1,580

Major Resistance Level – $1,640



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Semler Doubles Down on Bitcoin Investments Despite Losses

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Semler Scientific (SMLR), a US-based medical technology company, has revealed plans to acquire more Bitcoin (BTC) despite facing a 5.0% unrealized loss on its previous BTC investments. 

The firm has filed a Form S-3 registration with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to raise up to $500 million through a securities offering. The proceeds would be allocated for general corporate purposes, including expanding its Bitcoin portfolio.

Semler Scientific Files S-3 to Fund Bitcoin Investments

According to the official filing, the firm plans to issue common stock, preferred stock, debt securities, and warrants as part of the securities offering. The SEC filing does not specify the exact amount allocated for Bitcoin purchases. Nonetheless, Semler’s recent activity suggests a strong focus on cryptocurrency.

“We have not determined the amount of net proceeds to be used specifically for such purposes. As a result, management will retain broad discretion over the allocation of the net proceeds of any offering,” the filing read.

This move follows Semler’s previous acquisition of 871 BTC for $88.5 million at an average price of $101,616 per Bitcoin. The purchases were made between January 11 and February 3. 

The acquisition increased Semler’s total Bitcoin holdings to 3,192 BTC. The holdings worth $266.1 million represent 80.6% of the company’s total market capitalization of 330.1 million. This indicates that a significant portion of its value is tied to its Bitcoin investments.

“From January 1, 2025, to February 3, 2025, Semler Scientific’s BTC Yield was 21.9%. From July 1, 2024 (the first full quarter after Semler Scientific adopted its bitcoin treasury strategy) to February 3, 2025, Semler Scientific’s BTC Yield was 152.2%,” the firm revealed.

However, the tides have shifted since then. According to Bitcoin Treasuries, Semler’s average BTC acquisition cost is $87,850 per coin. As of the latest data from BeInCrypto, Bitcoin’s market price stood at $83,397, placing Semler at a 5.0% loss on its investment. 

Semler Scientific Bitcoin Investment Portfolio
Semler Scientific Bitcoin Investment Portfolio. Source: Bitcoin Treasuries

Previously, BeInCrypto noted that the losses surged to 14.7% as BTC fell below the $80,000 mark. Despite this, Semler’s leadership appears committed to its Bitcoin strategy, viewing the cryptocurrency as a long-term store of value.

Semler’s strategic push into Bitcoin mirrors those of other firms, such as Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and Metaplanet. Earlier this week, the firms acquired BTC worth $285 million and $26.3 million, respectively. 

However, Semler’s decision to double down on Bitcoin comes amid financial and legal challenges. On April 15, the company announced a preliminary $29.75 million settlement with the US Department of Justice (DOJ) to resolve allegations of violating federal anti-fraud laws related to marketing its QuantaFlo product.

The settlement is pending final approval. Yet, it adds pressure to Semler’s balance sheet as it navigates its ambitious fundraising and Bitcoin investment plans.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Cardano (ADA) Pressure Mounts—More Downside on the Horizon?

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Cardano price started a fresh decline from the $0.680 zone. ADA is consolidating near $0.620 and remains at risk of more losses.

  • ADA price started a recovery wave from the $0.5850 zone.
  • The price is trading below $0.640 and the 100-hourly simple moving average.
  • There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $0.6350 on the hourly chart of the ADA/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
  • The pair could start another increase if it clears the $0.640 resistance zone.

Cardano Price Faces Resistance

In the past few sessions, Cardano saw a fresh decline from the $0.680 level, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. ADA declined below the $0.650 and $0.640 support levels.

A low was formed at $0.6040 and the price is now consolidating losses. There was a minor move above the $0.6120 level. The price tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $0.6481 swing high to the $0.6040 low.

Cardano price is now trading below $0.640 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. On the upside, the price might face resistance near the $0.6260 zone and the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $0.6481 swing high to the $0.6040 low.

The first resistance is near $0.6350. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $0.6350 on the hourly chart of the ADA/USD pair. The next key resistance might be $0.6480.

Cardano Price

If there is a close above the $0.6480 resistance, the price could start a strong rally. In the stated case, the price could rise toward the $0.680 region. Any more gains might call for a move toward $0.70 in the near term.

Another Drop in ADA?

If Cardano’s price fails to climb above the $0.6350 resistance level, it could start another decline. Immediate support on the downside is near the $0.6040 level.

The next major support is near the $0.60 level. A downside break below the $0.60 level could open the doors for a test of $0.580. The next major support is near the $0.5550 level where the bulls might emerge.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ADA/USD is gaining momentum in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for ADA/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $0.6040 and $0.580.

Major Resistance Levels – $0.6350 and $0.6480.



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