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Bitcoin Bear Market Ahead? Analyst Warns of 33% Price Drop

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According to Timothy Peterson, author of Metcalfe’s Law as a Model for Bitcoin Value, the crypto industry could be on the brink of another bear market.

This analysis comes as the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintains its cautious stance on interest rates despite persisting economic uncertainties.

Analyst Explains How a Bear Market Could Unfold

In his recent analysis, shared on X (Twitter), Peterson warned that the market is currently overvalued. This, he says, makes it vulnerable to a downturn. While such a decline needs a trigger, he suggests that the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates steady could be enough to set it off.

“It’s time to talk about the next bear market. There’s no reason to think it couldn’t happen now. The valuation justifies it. What it needs is a trigger. I think that trigger may be as simple as the Fed not cutting rates at all this year,” wrote Peterson.

Peterson’s analysis draws parallels between past market downturns and current conditions. Using the NASDAQ as a reference point, he estimates that a bear market could last anywhere from 7 to 14 months.

Given that the NASDAQ is currently 28% overvalued, he anticipates a decline of about 17%, bringing the index down to 15,000.

Nasdaq Price Performance
Nasdaq Price Performance. Source: Peterson on X

Applying these projections to Bitcoin, Peterson expects a roughly 33% drop, pushing Bitcoin’s price down to around $57,000.

“Multiply by 1.9. 17% drop in NASDAQ = 33% drop in BTC -> $57k,” Peterson added.

However, he notes that opportunistic investors could step in early. Such an intervention could prevent the Bitcoin price from falling that low, potentially finding support around $71,000.

This aligns with a recent analysis from Arthur Hayes. As BeInCrypto reported, the BitMex founder claimed Bitcoin could slump to $70,000 before a potential rebound.

Analysts also highlighted Bitcoin’s air gap below $93,198, with little to no significant support until around the $70,000 range.

Fed’s Role in the Market Downturn

Meanwhile, about a month ago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates. He reiterated these remarks during his speech last week. speaking at a policy forum in New York, Powell emphasized the need for patience.

“We do not need to be in a hurry, and are well positioned to wait for greater clarity,” Powell stated.

Powell’s remarks come amid economic uncertainty fueled by President Donald Trump’s policy changes in trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. With inflation hovering around 2.5%, the Fed is focused on addressing these challenges cautiously.

Despite market expectations for rate cuts this year, Powell has made it clear that the Fed will wait and see before adjusting monetary policy.

Adding to concerns about an impending Fed-inspired downturn, Bitcoin recently dropped following the Fed’s warning of a possible recession. The Fed projected a 2.8% decline in GDP for the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, triggering fears of economic instability. This had influenced investor sentiment negatively.

Despite these warnings, Peterson remains unconvinced that a full-fledged bear market is imminent. He argues that current market conditions are not as euphoric as those of previous bubbles. The analyst also explains that bearish sentiment among investors could indicate a long-term buying opportunity rather than a sell signal.

BTC Price Performance
BTC Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

BeInCrypto data shows Bitcoin was trading for $86,026 as of this writing, down 0.1% since Sunday’s session opened.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Shiba Inu Whales Cut Holdings—Is a Bigger Price Drop Ahead?

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Leading meme coin Shiba Inu has shed almost 10% of its value over the past week. As of this writing, SHIB trades at $0.0000125.

This price decline coincides with a significant drop in whale holdings during the same period. This signals waning confidence among large investors amid broader market weakness.

SHIB’s Market Confidence Wanes as Whale Sell-Off Accelerates

According to IntoTheBlock, SHIB’s large holders ’netflow has fallen 123% in the past week. This comes amid the meme coin’s 8% price dip. 

SHIB Large Holders Netflow
SHIB Large Holders Netflow. Source: IntoTheBlock

Large holders refer to whale addresses that hold more than 0.1% of an asset’s circulating supply. Their netflow measures the inflow and outflow of tokens in their wallets to track whether they are accumulating (positive netflow) or offloading (negative netflow) their holdings.

When this metric falls, it indicates that whales are selling large portions of their assets, leading to increased supply and putting more downward pressure on price.

Moreover, this decline in SHIB whale netflow could worsen the weakening confidence among SHIB retail traders, prompting them to sell their coins in anticipation of further losses. This can accelerate SHIB’s price dip in the short term. 

On the daily chart, SHIB’s falling Relative Strength Index supports this bearish outlook. At press time, this momentum indicator is a downward trend at 35.34.

SHIB RSI.
SHIB RSI. Source: TradingView

An asset’s RSI measures an asset’s oversold and overbought conditions. It ranges between 0 and 100, with values above 70 indicating that the asset is overbought and due for a decline. Conversely, values under 30 suggest that the asset is oversold and could witness a rebound. 

At 35.05, SHIB’s RSI indicates that the asset is approaching oversold territory but has not fully entered it yet. This suggests weakening buying pressure and hints at the potential for further downside unless the meme coin demand picks up.

SHIB Holds Below Descending Trend Line

SHIB has remained below a descending trend line since December 8, keeping its price in decline. This pattern is formed when an asset’s price consistently makes lower highs over a period, connecting these peaks with a downward-sloping line. It is a bearish trend, indicating sustained selling pressure among SHIB market participants. 

If this decline continues, SHIB risks falling to a seven-month low of $0.0000107.

SHIB Price Analysis
SHIB Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, if buying pressure regains momentum, it could drive SHIB’s value to $0.0000166.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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SafeMoon (SFM) Selling Pressure Threatens Previous Gains

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SafeMoon’s price has climbed over 25% in the past week amid the broader market volatility. This double-digit price gain has been fueled by the uptick in the token’s demand following the project’s migration from BNB Chain to Solana.

However, profit-taking and increased selling pressure are now threatening to erase some of SFM’s recent gains. This analysis provides the details. 

SafeMoon Battles Growing Sell-Offs

An assessment of the SFM/USD one-day chart highlights the growing selling pressure within SFM’s spot markets. A notable indicator of this trend is the token’s negative Balance of Power (BoP), which is at  -0.96 at press time.

SFM BoP
SFM BoP. Source: TradingView

An asset’s BoP indicator compares buyers’ and sellers’ strengths by analyzing price movements within a given period. When its value is negative like this, it indicates that sellers have more control, meaning downward pressure is stronger, and the asset is likely experiencing a bearish trend. 

This suggests weakening bullish momentum among SFM holders and hints at declines if selling pressure continues.

Furthermore, SFM’s price has dropped 8% over the past 24 hours, causing the altcoin to trade near its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA).

This moving average measures an asset’s average price over the past 20 trading days, giving more weight to recent prices to identify short-term trends.

SFM 20-Day EMA
SFM 20-Day EMA. Source: TradingView

As with SFM, when an asset’s price is poised to break below the 20-day EMA, it signals increased selling pressure. It is a sign of weakening bullish momentum and a shift toward a bearish trend. 

SFM Finds Key Support at $0.000061

A successful breach of the dynamic support offered by SafeMoon’s 20-day EMA at $0.000061 would strengthen the bearish trend. In this scenario, the altcoin’s price could plummet further to $0.000047.

SFM Price Analysis
SFM Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, a spike in new demand would invalidate this bearish outlook. If spot inflows rally, it could drive SFM’s price above the resistance at $0.000068 toward its multi-year high at $0.000011.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Berachain Price Drops 30%—More Losses Ahead?

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Berachain (BERA) has suffered a steep decline over the past week, shedding 30% of its value as bearish sentiment plagues the general market. 

In the past 24 hours alone, the token has slid another 6%, deepening concerns of further downside. With growing bearish bias against the altcoin, this might be the case in the near term. 

BERA Faces Mounting Downside Risk

Berachain’s sharp decline has triggered a surge in short positions across its futures market. This rise in demand for shorts is evident in its funding rate, which has been negative since the token’s launch on February 6. At press time, this is at -0.11%.

BERA Funding Rate.
BERA Funding Rate. Source: Coinglass

The funding rate is a periodic fee exchanged between long and short traders in perpetual futures contracts to keep prices aligned with the spot market.

A negative funding rate means that short traders are paying long traders, indicating a stronger demand for short positions

As with BERA, if an asset experiences an extended period of negative funding rates, it suggests sustained bearish sentiment. It indicates that the token’s traders consistently bet on further price declines. This prolonged negativity could increase BERA’s price volatility and extend its price fall. 

In addition, BERA has noted significant fund outflows from its spot markets over the past few days. Per Coinglass, the altcoin has noted almost $2 million in spot market outflows today alone.

BERA Spot Inflow/Outflow.
BERA Spot Inflow/Outflow. Source: Coinglass

When an asset experiences spot outflows like this, it signals a surge in selling pressure. It indicates a bearish trend as investors reduce exposure or take profits, potentially leading to further price declines.

BERA at a Crossroads—Break Below $6.07 or Rally Toward $7.36?

Berachain trades at $6.14 at press time, resting slightly above support at $6.07. If the bearish bias against the altcoin strengthens, its price could break below this support floor, causing the token to trade at a low of $5.35.

If the bulls fail to defend this level, BERA could slip to its all-time low of $4.74.

BERA Price Analysis.
BERA Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

On the other hand, if market sentiment improves and BERA’s demand soars, its price could rally to $7.36.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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