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A Distant Threat or Imminent Reality?

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On average, a crypto bear market lasts about a year, sometimes extending to two. This phase occurs when supply surpasses demand, causing prices to decline over an extended period.

One of the most severe bear markets unfolded in 2022. During this time, FTX, one of the largest crypto exchanges by trading volume, collapsed following a massive bank run. The downfall triggered a ripple effect, leading to the collapse of several hedge funds and lending protocols, marking a significant low point for the industry.

Bear Market Psychology Explained

Recently, there’s been talk about the crypto market heading back into a bear phase. Many cryptocurrencies have struggled since Bitcoin (BTC) hit $73,750 in March. The decline has raised concerns that the market might be entering another long period of falling prices.

The event, which surprisingly happened before the halving, sent shockwaves around the market. At that time, many suggested that crypto prices would hit higher highs. 

However, this has not been the case. Instead, BTC’s price, alongside other cryptocurrencies, has either been consolidating, falling, or involved in false breakouts.

These factors, among others, have led some participants to suggest that the market might be heading into a bear phase. To evaluate this possibility, BeInCrypto examines the market cycle psychology chart for insights.

Read more: How To Make Money in a Bear Market

Psychology of a Market Cycle.
Psychology of a Market Cycle. Source: Quantified Strategies

As seen above, this chart shows 14 different stages. For instance, the disbelief marks the end of the bear market when cryptos begin to move into the bull phase. There are also phases of thrill, anxiety, euphoria, or complacency.

From the look of things, the disbelief stage happened around the first quarter of 2023, when the Bitcoin price began to post gains consistently. Meanwhile, the “Thrill” period probably happened during the ETF approval earlier in January this year, as there were calls for people to double down on buying BTC.

Euphoria probably occurred in between March when BTC and many other altcoins and meme coins reached different heights. The cool-off in recent times may suggest that this cycle is between complacency and anxiety, which usually precedes a bear market.

Bitcoin Holders Say a Big No to the Downturn Despite ETH Issues

However, the periods of complacency and anxiety may have been false alarms. According to Glassnode, the Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Sell-side Risk Ratio offers a clue. This metric measures the level of profit-taking compared to past market cycles.

Currently, the ratio remains below the peak seen during the 2021 bull market, indicating that long-term Bitcoin holders are refraining from selling.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Sell-side Risk Ratio.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Sell-side Risk Ratio. Source: Glassnode

Actions like this suggest high conviction among long-term holders. With respect to this, the on-chain analytic platform explains that:

“An elevated percentage of Bitcoin network wealth is held by this investor cohort relative to previous cycle ATH breaks, which suggests there is a degree of investor patience on display, and waiting for higher prices.”

If this holds true, the bear market might not be imminent, and the cycle could still be in its bear phase. However, some market participants remain skeptical due to the underperformance of certain altcoins, particularly Ethereum (ETH).

In 2021, after Bitcoin reached its all-time high (ATH), ETH quickly followed suit and surpassed its previous peak. This time, however, the situation is different, even with the launch of spot Ethereum ETFs.

Currently, ETH trades at $2,657, marking a 45% drop from its ATH. Earlier, many market participants confidently predicted that the altcoin would reach between $8,000 and $10,000, but those expectations have yet to be realized.

Ethereum Price Analysis.
Ethereum Price. Source: TradingView

Some of those optimistic predictions have faded as ETH continues to underperform, strengthening the belief that a bear market is approaching. However, it’s important to recognize that top cryptocurrencies, including BTC and ETH, recently underwent a period of distribution, which contributed to the recent price correction.

Bears Are Still Lurking for a Crypto Winter

Market participants might also worry that crypto whales have slowed down on buying BTC. However, these pauses are typical during a bull cycle. Despite this, caution is advised, as indicated by the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL).

The NUPL measures whether investors are in profit or loss. When the reading increases, it shows that more investors are seeing higher profits. Conversely, a decrease signals declining gains.

This metric also helps determine whether the market has entered a bear phase. An increase points to a stronger bull cycle, while a significant decrease raises the likelihood of a bear market.

Read more: Bitcoin Halving History: Everything You Need To Know

Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss
Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss. Source: CryptoQuant

At press time, Bitcoin’s NUPL stands at 0.46. In July, a similar drop in this range led BTC’s price to decline to $55,857. The last time the indicator hit this level, Bitcoin’s price fell to $42,576.

This makes the current reading a critical point for the market. If the NUPL continues to decrease and reaches 0.40 or lower, bears could take control. According to Grizzly, a pseudonymous analyst on CryptoQuant, if that happens, BTC could potentially drop to $40,000.

“If the index continues its downward movement, it’s reasonable to anticipate that the bears could take full control of the market. In such a scenario, the price could drop to around $40,000,” Grizzly wrote in his analysis.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Cardano (ADA) Price Hits 41% Weekly Growth, $1 Target in Sight

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Cardano (ADA) price has surged 41.89% in the last seven days, signaling strong bullish momentum in the market. The uptrend remains strong, supported by key technical indicators like the ADX and Ichimoku Cloud, which point to sustained positive sentiment.

However, signs of consolidation and narrowing gaps in short-term indicators suggest that the rally could face challenges if buying pressure weakens.

ADA Current Uptrend Is Still Strong

Cardano DMI chart shows an ADX of 42.7, indicating a strong trend. The metric has remained above 40 since November 7. This high ADX value confirms the robustness of ADA ongoing uptrend, signaling solid momentum behind the recent price movements.

With the positive directional index (D+) at 21.3 and the negative directional index (D-) at 11, bullish pressure continues to outweigh bearish activity, further supporting the upward trajectory.

ADA DMI.
ADA DMI. Source: TradingView

The ADX measures the strength of a trend without considering its direction. Values above 25 indicate a strong trend, while those below 20 suggest a weak or nonexistent trend. With an ADX at 42.7, ADA is clearly in a strong uptrend, showing significant market confidence.

The gap between D+ and D- reinforces the bullish dominance, suggesting that ADA price could sustain its upward movement if current conditions persist.

Cardano Ichimoku Cloud Shows An Important Signal

The Ichimoku Cloud chart for Cardano indicates a generally bullish trend, as the price remains above the cloud (Kumo). The Tenkan-sen (blue line) and Kijun-sen (red line) are relatively flat, showing signs of consolidation after ADA’s recent rally.

While the price is still trading above these lines, the narrowing gap between the price and the Tenkan-sen suggests weakening short-term momentum.

ADA Ichimoku Cloud.
ADA Ichimoku Cloud. Source: TradingView

The green cloud ahead signals potential support for ADA uptrend, but the current consolidation phase highlights the need for sustained buying pressure to maintain this momentum.

If the price drops below the Kijun-sen or approaches the cloud, it could signal a possible shift toward bearish sentiment.

ADA Price Prediction: Can It Reach $1 In November?

If Cardano (ADA) maintains its strong uptrend, it could test the resistance at $0.85. Breaking this level could pave the way for further gains, with the potential to reach the $1 threshold, marking a 20% rise from current levels and the highest price for Cardano since April 2022.

ADA Price Analysis.
ADA Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, as indicated by the Ichimoku Cloud, a potential reversal could be on the horizon. If bearish momentum takes over, ADA price could face significant downward pressure, potentially dropping to $0.51.

If this support fails, the price could decline further to $0.32, representing a steep 59% correction. This highlights the importance of the current support and resistance levels in determining ADA’s next direction.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Why SUI Network Outage Did Not Cause a Price Crash

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Earlier today, the Layer-1 blockchain Sui experienced a two-hour blackout, halting block production and rendering transaction processing impossible. This network outage led to a slight dip in SUI’s price, falling from $3.73 to $3.64.

Despite concerns of a more significant decline, the price stabilized after the project announced that the network was fully restored and operational.

Sui Comes Back Online, Altcoin Still in Good Position

Around 10:52 UTC, web3 security firm ExVull disclosed that a DOS bug caused the Sui network outage. Fully known as a Denial-of-Service (DoS) attack, the bug” refers to a software attack that overwhelms a system with excessive traffic or requests, causing it to become unavailable to legitimate users by crashing or severely slowing its functionality.

“After our analysis, it was found that the Sui Network node occur DOS due to integer overflow,” ExVul stated.

Following this development, several exchanges halted SUI transactions as the price also dipped a little. However, nearly two hours later, the project updated its community, saying that validators had assisted in resolving the issue.

“The Sui network is back up and processing transactions again, thanks to swift work from the incredible community of Sui validators. The 2-hour downtime was caused by a bug in transaction scheduling logic that caused validators to crash, which has now been resolved,” it explained.

Meanwhile, data from Messari showed that, amid the outage, the Sharpe ratio remained positive. The Sharpe ratio is a key measure of risk-adjusted return, indicating how much excess return an investment generates relative to its volatility

It helps investors assess whether the returns of a riskier asset justify the risk taken. A higher ratio signifies better risk-adjusted performance. Typically, when the ratio is negative, it means that the risk might not be worth the reward.

SUI Sharpe ratio
Sui Sharpe Ratio. Source: Messari

However, since it is positive for SUI, it indicates that accumulating the altcoin around its current value could still yield positive returns.

SUI Price Prediction: Run Above $4

On the daily chart, SUI continues to trade within an ascending channel. An ascending channel, also called a rising channel or channel up, is a chart pattern defined by two parallel upward-sloping lines. 

It forms when the price shows higher swing highs and higher swing lows, indicating an ongoing uptrend. Furthermore, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has increased, suggesting that buying pressure has outpaced distribution.

Sui price analysis
Sui Daily Analysis. Source: TradingView

If this continues, SUI’s price could climb above $4. However, if a Sui network outage occurs again, this might not happen. In that scenario, the value could drop below $3.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Aptos Partners with Circle and Stripe to Revitalize Network

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The Aptos Foundation announced a new partnership with Circle and Stripe, hoping to revolutionize its network functionality. Circle’s CCTP and USDC stablecoin will enhance blockchain interoperability, while Stripe will attract TradFi by simplifying fiat interactions.

Aptos has set ambitious goals with this partnership, but APT’s upward momentum has stagnated.

Aptos Partners with Circle and Stripe

According to a new announcement from the Aptos (APT) Foundation, its network is integrating Circle’s USDC stablecoin and Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP). Additionally, Aptos is integrating the payment platform Stripe, generally streamlining fiat-related features. These include on- and off-ramps, payment processing, and TradFi ease of adoption.

“Once the integration is complete, users will be able to seamlessly transfer USDC between Aptos and 8 major blockchains. In addition to USDC and CCTP, Stripe will soon launch its payment services on Aptos, creating a reliable fiat on-ramp to streamline merchant pay-ins and payouts using Aptos-compatible wallets,” the firm claimed via press release.

In other words, Aptos aims to use this partnership to make itself “the ultimate hub for interoperable DeFi.” These companies will approach this goal from both ends: enticing new users and investors while substantially improving the core experience. This partnership marks a new development for Stripe’s integration with crypto.

Indeed, Stripe took a six-year hiatus from cryptocurrency payments, which only ended this April. Since then, however, it’s been engaging seriously with the industry. The firm entered an earlier partnership with Circle this June, hoping to promote USDC adoption. Additionally, Stripe acquired Bridge, a crypto payment platform, last month.

For its part, Aptos is undertaking a recovery process. Despite a major price spike in March, it suffered a lingering decline for most of 2024. The asset began regaining steam in October, and the November bull market has brought increased optimism. Still, its gains have stagnated for about a week.

Aptos Price in 2024
Aptos Price in 2024. Source: BeInCrypto

This partnership between Aptos, Circle, and Stripe may help APT regain its forward momentum. These ambitious new features will greatly add functionality and accessibility to Aptos’ network. Still, the firm has set a very ambitious goal for itself: to solidify “its place as a leader in interoperable DeFi and enterprise-grade blockchain technology.” Only time can tell its success level.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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