XRP has faced a period of stagnation in recent weeks, with its price struggling to gain significant direction. After a series of recent bullish developments, the altcoin’s macro-scale price action has shown signs of saturation. 

Despite the positive catalysts, XRP remains stuck in a consolidation phase, making it difficult to predict its next move.  Temujin Louie, CEO of Wanchain, spoke to BeInCrypto about the impact of these external catalysts but leaned towards them failing to trigger any rallies.

“While the SEC dropping its years-long lawsuit against Ripple Labs is undoubtedly a net positive, it hasn’t triggered an immediate surge in XRP’s value because this development doesn’t directly improve utility or drive adoption. XRP remains today as it was before and during the SEC lawsuit,” said Louie.

The ongoing hype and discussions surrounding XRP ETFs have also been impacting the volatility. Investors have been expecting prices to surge owing to the potential of a new XRP ETF.

“Speculation around an XRP ETF hasn’t generated the same excitement as BTC or ETH ETFs. The market’s enthusiasm for crypto ETFs diminishes with each subsequent approval. The 4th, 5th and 6th-approved asset just become one of many, as the novelty of crypto ETFs wears off,” Louie noted.

XRP Is Repeating History

XRP’s Network Utilization and Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator shows that the altcoin is currently saturating. This suggests that there has been little progress in terms of price movement, and XRP needs strong market cues to take a clear direction. Historically, XRP has experienced similar consolidation phases.

Back in 2017, the coin consolidated for nine months before a massive boom that saw prices surge. However, after breaching key levels, XRP entered a period of consolidation followed by a sharp decline. The same pattern could be happening now, with XRP facing a four-month consolidation period, which may signal a potential correction in the near future.

Following into Bitcoin’s footsteps is another thing that XRP did back in the day, but Hank Huang, Chief Executive Officer at Kronos Research hinted in a different direction.

“Despite its liquidity remaining thin within the altcoin market, lagging behind the depth of Bitcoin. XRP is neither fully following Bitcoin’s ETF-fueled ascent nor carving a clear independent path. The recent Ethereum ETF outflows, observed recently, underscore a market tilt toward Bitcoin, as investors appear to favor BTC’s perceived stability and ‘digital gold’ narrative over altcoins. This shift suggests that bullish sentiment is consolidating around Bitcoin rather than dispersing across the broader altcoin market, leaving XRP struggling to attract the institutional momentum needed to break out of its current rut,” Huang stated.

The HODLer Position Change metric, which tracks long-term holders’ behavior, reveals that LTHs (Long-Term Holders) have been accumulating XRP during this consolidation phase. This accumulation suggests that LTHs are confident that XRP will eventually capitalize on a future price increase. 

Their ongoing conviction has helped support XRP’s price despite the stagnation and market uncertainty. This accumulation could be a sign that, when the market conditions improve, XRP may see a surge in value, as these holders are not looking to sell in the near term.

This accumulation by LTHs acts as a stabilizing factor, preventing the price from dipping significantly despite the market’s lack of strong direction. 

Will XRP Fail This Crucial Breach Again?

At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $2.20, having failed to breach the key resistance level of $2.56 last week. This resistance has proven to be a significant barrier over the past four months, limiting any major upward movement for the altcoin. Until XRP can break through this level, it will likely remain trapped within its current range.

With mixed signals from the market, XRP may face challenges in gaining momentum. If market conditions do not improve in Q2 2025, the altcoin could experience a decline towards $2.02 or potentially lower if it falls through the $2.14 support level. Such a decline would indicate that a corrective move could follow the saturation phase.

For the bearish outlook to be invalidated, XRP needs to breach and flip the $2.56 resistance into support. Doing so would open the door for a price increase, pushing XRP beyond the $2.95 and $3.00 levels. This would also bring XRP closer to its all-time high (ATH) of $3.40, signaling that the altcoin could finally resume its bullish trajectory after the period of consolidation.

Popular analyst Peter Brandt has provided a bearish outlook for the XRP price, predicting that the altcoin could drop below the $2 support. As part of his analysis, he highlighted a head-and-shoulders pattern that could spark the breakdown below $2. 

Peter Brandt Identifies XRP Head And Shoulders Pattern

In an X post, Brandt revealed that XRP is forming a textbook head-and-shoulders pattern, which has caused the altcoin to range-bound. He added that the head-and-shoulders pattern projects a price decline to as low as $1.07. The analyst’s accompanying chart showed that XRP could witness a freefall to this target if it loses the $1.9 support. 

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Crypto analyst CasiTrades had also recently raised the possibility of XRP dropping to as low as $1.54. She revealed that a break below the $2.25 support and lower support at $1.90 could lead to this breakdown to $1.54. However, the analyst suggested that the probability of this happening was really low, as the $2.25 support is holding really strongly. 

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Ali Martinez also discussed the head-and-shoulders pattern that had formed for the XRP price. In an X post, he stated that if XRP can break above $3, it would invalidate the current head-and-shoulders pattern, a development that could flip the altcoin’s outlook to bullish. In his analysis, Brandt had also hinted that a rally above $3 could invalidate the bearish pattern. 

Martinez’s accompanying chart showed that XRP could drop to as low as $1.25 if this head-and-shoulders pattern plays out. In another post, he again raised the possibility of XRP suffering this price breakdown, while stating that the $2 price level remains the critical support level for the crypto. 

Bullish Outlook For The Altcoin

In an X post, crypto analyst Dark Defender provided a bullish outlook for the XRP price, predicting it could reach as high as $23.20. The analyst claimed that the third wave targets a rally of between $5.85 and $8.076. Meanwhile, the fifth wave is expected to finish the move between $18.22 and $23.20. 

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This prediction came as part of Dark Defender’s analysis of the 3-month candle. He affirmed that XRP boasts a clear bullish momentum on this higher timeframe. He added that there are ups and downs in smaller time frames, but the higher frames supersedes the smaller ones. 

In another post, the analyst assured XRP’s consolidation will be over soon. He revealed that the altcoin has formed a great bullish rectangle pattern and that the next leg up will send it to new all-time highs (ATHs). 

At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $2.25, down over 4% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

The Trump family has made headlines lately over potential ventures with Binance and the BNB Chain. Rumors started circulating that the Trump Organization is considering buying a stake in Binance’s US arm, while Trump recently launched his USD1 stablecoin on BNB Chain. This nature of the President’s involvement has raised concerns over decentralization. 

BeInCrypto spoke with representatives from Galxe, Komodo Platform, Kronos Research, Yellow Network, and Solv Protocol to gather further insights on what Trump’s involvement could mean for the centralized exchange and the decentralized blockchain. 

Initial Reactions to Trump’s Binance Ventures

A series of events in the last month seem to have brought US President Donald Trump and Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao closer together. 

Just two weeks ago, reports circulated that the Trump family may be negotiating to acquire a stake in the US arm of the world’s largest crypto exchange. Then, on Tuesday, World Liberty Financial officially launched its very own stablecoin, known as USD1.

Though Binance’s actual involvement in the launch remains unclear, USD1 is native to the BNB Chain. Though BNB is decentralized, community members raised concerns that a stake in Binance could indirectly influence the blockchain’s greater ecosystem. 

As a result, a vital question has erupted: Are these latest ventures good for market adoption and crypto’s reputation, or do they go against crypto’s decentralized and community-driven ethos?

Industry experts proved to be divided in their responses. 

Does Trump Involvement Signal Market Growth?

Trump has completely changed the political landscape in the United States, creating a more favorable environment for cryptocurrency adoption. Given his endeavors in the industry, Trump’s approach has been particularly novel. 

Announcements like the creation of World Liberty Financial and the launch of his meme coin were initially celebrated by the community for the increased visibility they gave to the crypto industry. 

Now, with rumors of a potential stake acquisition in Binance and the launch of USD1 on the BNB Chain, some expect similar results. They argue that The Trump family’s involvement could bring significant traffic to Binance and, consequently, to the BNB Chain.

“A Trump stake in Binance could actually be bullish for BNB Chain, as it may drive‬‭ greater attention, adoption, or even institutional involvement. There have been multiple moves related to Trump and the crypto space. Personally, I see them‬‭ all as contributing to the industry’s development—at least for now. Whether driven by political motives or‬ not, these moves are undeniably giving crypto more visibility and mainstream recognition,‬” said Ryan Chow, CEO and Co-founder of Solv Protocol.

Alexis Sirkia, Chairman of Yellow Network, delivered a similar verdict.

“‬‭A‬‭ Trump‬‭ stake‬‭ would‬‭ be‬‭ bullish,‬‭ not‬‭ bearish.‬‭ It‬‭ would‬‭ draw‬‭ attention,‬‭ capital,‬‭ and‬‭ momentum. The community would more strongly rally behind it than back away,” Sirkia told BeInCrypto.

However, others received the news with much more skepticism.

Concerns Over Centralized Power

When rumors surfaced that the Trump family had held talks to buy a stake in Binance, some criticized the move over potential conflicts of interest. Reports also suggested that these negotiations resembled a plot by CZ to get Trump to pardon him following his guilty plea for money laundering charges in 2023. 

They also cautioned that a stake could give Trump centralized power to a broader industry working to build a decentralized financial system. 

“‬‭Blockchain‬‭ was‬‭ created‬‭ as‬‭ an‬‭ answer‬‭ to‬‭ the‬‭ shortcomings‬‭ of‬‭ the‬‭ traditional‬‭ financial‬‭ system,‬ ‭with‬‭ the‬‭ idea‬‭ that‬‭ no‬‭ one‬‭ entity‬‭ should‬‭ have‬‭ full‬‭ control‬‭ over‬‭ it,‬‭ let‬‭ alone‬‭ an‬‭ individual.‬‭ The‬ idea‬‭ of‬‭ an‬‭ influential‬‭ political‬‭ figure‬‭ like‬‭ Trump‬‭ having‬‭ an‬‭ influence‬‭ over‬‭ one‬‭ of‬‭ crypto’s‬ ‭stalwarts challenges the whole ethos of Web3,” Charles‬‭ Wayn, Co-founder of Galxe, told BeInCrypto.

A move like this, Wayn added, could have significant long-term implications on Binance and BNB Chain.

“If‬‭ Trump‬‭ does‬‭ take‬‭ a‬‭ stake‬‭ in‬‭ Binance.US,‬‭ this‬‭ would‬‭ certainly‬‭ polarize‬‭ the‬‭ community‬‭ and‬‭ lead‬‭ to‬‭ the‬‭ erosion‬‭ of‬‭ trust,‬‭ especially‬‭ from‬‭ the‬‭ more‬‭ ideological‬‭ users.‬‭ They‬‭ would‬‭ likely‬‭ start‬‭ questioning‬‭ the‬‭ integrity‬‭ of‬‭ Binance‬‭ and‬‭ how‬‭ aligned‬‭ –or‬‭ not‬–‬‭ it‬‭ is‬‭ with‬‭ web3‬‭ values.‬‭ This‬‭ will‬‭ inevitably‬‭ have‬‭ an‬‭ impact‬‭ on‬‭ their‬‭ perception‬‭ of‬‭ BNB‬‭ Chain‬‭ and‬‭ could‬‭ potentially‬‭ push developers and users to explore alternatives,” he said. 

However, the way in which Trump could potentially exert power over these entities looks different in each case.

Binance vs BNB Chain: What’s The Difference?

While Binance is a centralized exchange, BNB Chain is a decentralized blockchain ecosystem. Though Binance initially played a central role in creating the BNB Chain, the ecosystem rebranded itself in 2022, evolving toward a more decentralized and community-driven effort. 

Considering their separate natures, Trump’s potential position holds different meanings for Binance and BNB Chain.

“It’s important to recognize that Binance is, by nature, a centralized entity. If Trump were to acquire a‬‭ stake in Binance, the key difference, in my view, would be that Binance could shift from being purely‬‭ profit-driven to being influenced -at least in part- by political factors,” Chow explained. 

Meanwhile, BNB is a blockchain. Manipulating the technology itself is practically impossible.

“BNB Chain’s decentralization is determined by its validators, not endorsements or political affiliations. A Trump stake wouldn’t inherently compromise its structure,” explained Kronos Research analyst Dominick John.

Instead, the BNB Chain could be influenced by other factors, like governance decisions.

The Impact of Politics on Governance

Despite the technical distinction between Binance and BNB Chain, the potential for political influence raises questions about the platform’s independence.

“‭Governance decisions might be seen as influenced by political interests, eroding confidence in the platform’s neutrality. Additionally, increased regulatory scrutiny could lead to compliance measures that restrict certain activities, weakening the chain’s appeal to privacy-conscious users. With a majority power potentially coming from the political realm, the true decentralization of BNB Chain would be questioned, as the community might fear that decisions are driven by centralized, external forces rather than the collective will of the network,” John added.

At this point, the lines between Binance and BNB Chain become blurred. Despite their technically separate entities, BNB is, after all, a product born out of Binance. 

“‬The‬‭ question‬‭ is‬‭ more,‬‭ how‬‭ decentralized‬‭ is‬‭ BNB‬‭ Chain‬‭ right‬‭ now?‬‭ Binance‬‭ has‬‭ been‬‭ criticized‬‭ for‬‭ having‬‭ a‬‭ great‬‭ deal‬‭ of‬‭ influence‬‭ over‬‭ the‬‭ choice‬‭ of‬‭ validators‬‭ on‬‭ BNB‬‭ Chain,‬‭ and‬‭ the‬‭ blockchain’s‬‭ decentralization‬‭ is‬‭ often‬‭ brought‬‭ into‬‭ question‬‭,” Wayn said.

Though direct control of the decentralized BNB Chain is unlikely, a stake in Binance could indirectly influence the BNB Chain ecosystem.

How High Are the Stakes?

The existence and size of a potential Trump family Binance stake remains uncertain. From what Sirkia has heard, Trump is looking at a 5% stake or lower. 

If that turns out to be true, Sirkia doesn’t think Trump’s participation is something to worry about so long as the President prioritizes transparency. 

“‬We‬‭ are‬‭ talking‬‭ about‬‭ a‬‭ minority‬‭ stake‬‭ in‬‭ Binance‬‭ US.‬‭ It‬‭ is‬‭ a‬‭ small‬‭,‬‭ distinct‬‭ offshoot‬‭ of‬‭ Binance‬‭ that‬‭ has‬‭ no‬‭ vote‬‭ on‬‭ BNB‬‭ Chain.‬‭ Everybody‬‭ should‬‭ be‬‭ allowed‬‭ to‬‭ invest.‬‭ But‬‭ if‬‭ you’re‬‭ a‬‭ politico‬‭,‬‭ then‬‭ a‬‭ Blind‬‭ Trust‬‭ or‬‭ public‬‭ disclosure‬‭ is‬‭ the‬‭ answer‬‭.‬‭ Transparency‬‭ is‬‭ key‬‭,” Sirkia told BeInCrypto. 

Chow agreed.

“‬I see this similarly to a political figure holding stakes in any enterprise. This is not uncommon, and with‬‭ proper disclosure –especially given the level of scrutiny surrounding Trump– I personally don’t find it‬‭ inherently problematic. In an extreme scenario where a blockchain is explicitly branded as a ‘Trump‬‭ Chain’ or an ‘American Chain,’ does it really matter? I don’t think so. The market will decide its‬‭ relevance,” he said.

Wayn, on the other hand, argues that the size of the stake is irrelevant.

“‬Even‬‭ if‬‭ this‬‭ stake‬‭ is‬‭ small,‬‭ politicians‬‭ have‬‭ the‬‭ ability‬‭ to‬‭ wield‬‭ outsized‬‭ control,‬‭ and‬‭ this‬‭ would‬‭ be‬‭ unlikely‬‭ to‬‭ go‬‭ down‬‭ well‬‭ with‬‭ the‬‭ BNB‬‭ community.‬‭ Even‬‭ though‬‭ Binance‬‭ is‬‭ a‬‭ centralized‬‭ crypto‬‭ entity,‬‭ outright‬‭ political‬‭ involvement‬‭ would‬‭ be‬‭ a‬‭ step‬‭ too‬‭ far‬‭ and‬‭ the‬‭ community‬‭ would‬‭ almost certainly push back,” Wayn said, adding that “while‬‭ Trump’s‬‭ influence‬‭ may‬‭ not‬‭ make‬‭ BNB‬‭ Chain‬‭ more‬‭ centralized,‬‭ he‬‭ could‬‭ certainly‬‭ wield‬‭ control‬‭ over‬‭ key‬‭ decisions.‬‭ More‬‭ importantly,‬‭ the‬‭ perception‬‭ will‬‭ be‬‭ that‬‭ BNB‬‭ is‬‭ falling‬‭ under‬‭ the‬‭ US‬‭ government’s influence, and perceptions are often what drives user behavior.”

Meanwhile, other considerations also arise. 

Regulatory Scrutiny Likely To Increase

When Trump launched his meme coin, the move drew significant scrutiny from regulators, especially as speculation over insider trading started to surface. The same happened when the Trump Organization disclosed that it had a 75% stake in World Liberty Financial’s net revenue.

Trump’s stablecoin announcement and potential Binance stake acquisition will likely have the same effect.

“The involvement of a sitting US president within a crypto exchange could attract heightened regulatory scrutiny, as concerns over political influence may affect market dynamics. This could lead to regulations that stifle innovation, create barriers for smaller players, and ultimately harm the growth and inclusivity of the crypto industry,” John said.

However, John added that he considered this result unlikely. Sirkia agreed, arguing that Trump’s participation would boost regulatory clarity.

“‬‭If‬‭ true,‬‭ this‬‭ would‬‭ be‬‭ a‬‭ huge‬‭ plus.‬‭ It‬‭ would‬‭ send‬‭ a‬‭ message‬‭ that‬‭ crypto‬‭ is‬‭ not‬‭ on‬‭ the‬‭ fringes‬‭ but‬‭ part‬‭ of‬‭ the‬‭ future‬‭ financial‬‭ landscape‬‭ of‬‭ the‬‭ US‬‭ Regulatory‬‭ clarity‬‭ could‬‭ actually speed up under a pro-crypto approach,” he said. 

However, the news has already polarized the broader political arena. The Senate Banking, Housing, & Urban Affairs Committee Minority under Senator Elizabeth Warren has already spoken against Trump’s ties with Binance.

Similarly, users who strongly adhere to blockchain’s core principles of decentralization and privacy may feel more inclined to migrate elsewhere.

Potential for User Migration Toward DEXs

Wayn believes a Trump stake in Binance could urge users to transition from centralized exchanges to decentralized alternatives.

“‭There‬‭ is‬‭ a‬‭ real‬‭ possibility‬‭ that‬‭ users‬‭ and‬‭ developers‬‭ might‬‭ flee‬‭ for‬‭ decentralized‬‭ alternatives‬‭ if‬‭ they‬‭ perceive‬‭ BNB‬‭ Chain‬‭ to‬‭ be‬‭ falling‬‭ under‬‭ political‬‭ influence.‬‭ But‬‭ that’s‬‭ not‬‭ necessarily‬‭ bad‬‭ news‬‭ for‬‭ the‬‭ industry‬‭ as‬‭ a‬‭ whole‬‭– ‬‭ it‬‭ could‬‭ push‬‭ users‬‭ to‬‭ explore‬‭ alternative‬‭ blockchains‬‭ and‬‭ decentralized‬‭ exchanges.‬‭ It‬‭ would‬‭ also‬‭ be‬‭ an‬‭ opportunity‬‭ to‬‭ highlight‬‭ the‬‭ advantages‬‭ of‬‭ decentralized‬‭ technologies‬‭ more‬‭ broadly,‬‭ which‬‭ are,‬‭ by‬‭ default,‬‭ unbiased‬‭ as‬‭ they‬‭ operate‬‭ off‬‭ of code and not beliefs,” he said.

Kadan Stadelmann, Chief Technology Officer at Komodo Platform, doesn’t necessarily think a mass migration will occur. He does think, however, that these announcements will further reinforce crypto aficionados’ beliefs on privacy.

“Those‬‭ who‬‭ use‬‭ crypto‬‭ for‬‭ its‬‭ privacy‬‭ potential‬‭ have‬‭ long‬‭ been‬‭ suspicious‬‭ of‬‭ centralization‬‭ in‬‭ any‬‭ chain,‬‭ and‬‭ gravitate‬‭ towards‬‭ those‬‭ projects‬‭ which‬‭ offer‬‭ privacy.‬‭ Trump’ s‬‭ stake‬‭ in‬‭ Binance‬‭ won’t‬‭ surprise‬‭ them,‬‭ though‬‭ it‬‭ might‬‭ make‬‭ them‬‭ more‬‭ hardcore‬‭ in‬‭ their‬‭ preferences‬‭ for‬‭ truly‬‭ decentralized systems,” Stadelmann told BeInCrypto.

Meanwhile, those in crypto exclusively for profit reasons will remain indifferent to any potential Trump-related conflicts of interest.

Financial Gains Over Decentralized Ideals

For crypto users primarily motivated by profit, the nuances of data control and decentralization are often secondary concerns.

“Much‬‭ of‬‭ the‬‭ public‬‭ globally‬‭ is‬‭ in‬‭ the‬‭ dark‬‭ about‬‭ what‬‭ companies‬‭ do‬‭ with‬‭ their‬‭ data‬‭ and‬‭ they‬‭ don’t‬‭ feel‬‭ as‬‭ though‬‭ they‬‭ have‬‭ any‬‭ say‬‭ in‬‭ how‬‭ the‬‭ companies‬‭ handle‬‭ their‬‭ data.‬‭ The‬‭ resignation‬‭ suggests‬‭ crypto‬‭ users‬‭ interested‬‭ in‬‭ the‬‭ technology‬‭ for‬‭ its‬‭ money-making‬‭ potential‬‭ won’t‬‭ protest‬‭ Trump’s‬‭ stake‬‭ in‬‭ Binance,‬‭ and‬‭ the‬‭ platform‬‭ will‬‭ continue‬‭ to‬‭ grow—especially‬‭ with‬‭ financial‬‭ backing from the monied-classes of which Trump is a part,” Stadelmann concluded.

Regardless of the outcome, the ongoing debate surrounding Trump’s potential influence illustrates the inherent tension between pursuing mainstream adoption and preserving crypto’s decentralized ethos.

This tension will likely drive the industry’s evolution. The side that pulls the hardest will shape the final result.