Ethereum
Will Ethereum Skyrocket? Analyst Predicts $6,000 By September
Popular crypto analyst degentrading (@degentradingLSD) has made a bold prediction that Ethereum will reach $6,000 by September 2024. This prediction comes in response to an analysis by Mechanism Capital founder Andrew Kang, who expects Ethereum to underperform despite the imminent launch of US spot Ethereum ETFs.
Andrew Kang’s analysis projects a continued downtrend for ETHBTC, with the ratio expected to range between 0.035 and 0.06 over the next year. In his detailed thread on X, Kang expressed skepticism about Ethereum’s potential, despite the ETF launch being just days away.
Why Ethereum Could Reach $6,000 By September
Degentrading, however, presented a counter-argument in a thread on X. Degentrading begins by examining the change in CME open interest (OI) from pre-ETF days to the present, noting a substantial increase of approximately $5 billion.
He explains, “Pre-ETF, it was very onerous to perform cash and carry on CME due to margin requirements. Hence, the upper bound of basis trades is probably capped at that amount.” This insight suggests that the advent of the ETF could significantly ease trading constraints, potentially unlocking a large influx of capital.
However, he tempers this by discussing the challenges posed by the extinction of prime brokers like Genesis, which complicates spot borrowing as a hedge against CME futures longs. According to degentrading, “Unless market makers can frequently charge a bid/ask spread, they are effectively locking in a loss. Therefore, the sheer amount of CME basis trades has to be a minority. I would peg the figure at $1-2 billion max.” This leaves an estimated $7 billion in potential inflows, a figure he describes as “highly dependent on assumptions.”
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Degentrading contrasts Ethereum’s position with that of Bitcoin, criticizing sentiments from analysts like Eric Balchunas. “Nothing in traditional finance is as exciting as tech. Bitcoin has the branding of digital gold or millennial gold. Gold’s market cap is approximately $15 trillion,” he notes. In contrast, Ethereum is seen as a decentralized global settlement layer or world computer, with the US stock market already valued at $50 trillion. This, he argues, sets a much higher ceiling for Ethereum.
He further explains that in his discussions with traditional finance (tradfi) professionals, there is more enthusiasm for ETH and even SOL compared to BTC. “People are much more excited about ETH or SOL for that matter. Hence, I would peg the inflow conversion rate at half of Bitcoin’s, which translates to about $3-4 billion into ETH,” degentrading asserts.
One of the key points in degentrading’s argument is Ethereum’s relative illiquidity compared to Bitcoin. He highlights that while Ethereum is roughly one-third the size of Bitcoin, its liquidity is only about 10% of BTC. “This means that an influx of $3-4 billion will materially move ETH,” he emphasizes. This illiquidity could lead to significant price movements with relatively smaller capital inflows.
Addressing the market’s current positioning, degentrading points out the overall bleak sentiment on Crypto Twitter (CT), viewing it as the best technical setup for Ethereum. He notes, “On the cusp of the ETH ETF launch, you have people setting expectations for $500 million of inflows over six months. This is the BEST technical setup for ETH.”
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An important factor in degentrading’s analysis is the anticipated conversion of Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust (ETHE) into an ETF. He suggests that ETHE will likely face much less selling pressure compared to the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) due to a lesser lender overhang. “ETHE will also likely face MUCH LESS selling pressure than GBTC because of the much lesser lender overhang,” he notes.
Impact Of Cash And Carry Trades
Andrew Kang responded to degentrading’s analysis, highlighting the involvement of large funds like Millennium, which owns $2 billion of the ETF. Kang points out that such funds engage in basis trades and are not long-only investment funds. “Millennium by itself owns $2 billion of the ETF. They are not a long-only investment fund. They do these types of basis trades. That’s only one fund from an old filing,” Kang stated.
Degentrading acknowledged this but emphasized the cost implications of holding a cash and carry position. He argued that the cost of holding such positions nets out significant amounts, which impacts the market maker’s profitability. “On that thought, the cost of holding a cash and carry would net out $300 million to Millennium and cost the market maker that amount, implying that the delta is borne by a naked delta on the futures,” degentrading retorted.
At press time, ETH traded at $3,362.90.
Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
Ethereum
Ethereum Is Forming A 1-Hour Symmetrical Triangle – Bullish Breakout Or Deeper Correction?
Ethereum has begun the year much like it ended the last—under a bearish cloud. The altcoin leader has faced a challenging start, with its price plummeting over 16% since January 6. Weak price action continues to dominate as ETH struggles to find strong support, leaving investors cautious about what lies ahead.
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Amid the market uncertainty, top analyst Carl Runefelt has shared a technical analysis on X, offering insight into Ethereum’s potential next move. Runefelt highlights that ETH is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern on the 1-hour timeframe—a setup that typically precedes a significant price move. According to his analysis, this formation signals a period of consolidation that could lead to either a bullish breakout or a bearish breakdown.
A breakout could provide much-needed optimism for Ethereum investors, potentially reversing the bearish trend and pushing the price toward higher levels. On the other hand, a breakdown could extend ETH’s current losses, raising concerns about deeper corrections in the near term. As the market waits for clarity, all eyes are on Ethereum’s next move, which could set the tone for its performance in the coming weeks.
Ethereum Struggle: What’s Next For The Altcoin Leader?
Ethereum investors are facing challenging times, with price action continuing to disappoint. After briefly holding key demand levels, many expected a shift in market sentiment. However, ETH has now fallen to its lowest price since late December, leaving investors anxious about its next move.
Top analyst Carl Runefelt recently shared a technical analysis on X, shedding light on Ethereum’s current situation. Runefelt revealed that ETH is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern on the 1-hour timeframe—a structure that suggests a significant price move is imminent. The pattern highlights critical levels on both sides of the market, providing a roadmap for potential outcomes.
If Ethereum fails to hold above the $3,000 level, a deeper correction is likely, which could push the price significantly lower. Conversely, reclaiming the $3,500 level would signal strength, setting the stage for a massive breakout. Such a move would not only restore investor confidence but also attract new capital into the market.
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The market as a whole is at a crossroads, with Bitcoin holding above key support levels while altcoins, including Ethereum, continue to experience selling pressure. As traders closely monitor ETH’s next move, its performance in the coming days could set the tone for the broader altcoin market.
ETH Tests Crucial Support Levels Amid Downtrend
Ethereum is trading at $3,113 after a 6% decline in the past few hours, signaling continued bearish pressure in the market. The price is now testing the daily 200 exponential moving average (EMA) at this level, a critical technical indicator that could determine the direction of the next move. Holding this EMA as support might spark a bullish recovery, giving ETH the momentum needed to reclaim higher levels in the coming sessions.
However, the market remains on edge, and the key level to watch for support is the untested $3,000 mark. This psychological and technical level hasn’t been revisited since late November, making it a significant zone of interest for both bulls and bears. A drop to this level could attract strong buying interest, potentially setting the stage for a rebound.
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On the flip side, if ETH fails to hold the daily 200 EMA or loses the $3,000 level, a deeper correction could ensue, potentially driving the price into new lows for 2025. With market sentiment leaning bearish and key supports being tested, Ethereum’s price action in the next few days will be pivotal in shaping its short-term trend.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Ethereum
Ethereum Prognose: Vorübergehende Schwäche und Chance?
Ethereum zählt nicht umsonst zu den wichtigsten Kryptowährungen der Welt. Die aktuelle Nummer 2 der Kryptowelt punktet vorwiegend mit seinen Anwendungen für ein dezentralisiertes Finanzwesen.
Hier stehen die sogenannten „Smart Contracts“ im Mittelpunkt des Interesses der Wirtschaft. Die „automatisierten“ Verträge benötigen keine zentrale Instanz mehr und schließen Banken zunehmend aus dem Finanzkreislauf aus.
Kurskorrektur vor dem nächsten Aufschwung
Angesichts dieser Innovation ist es nicht verwunderlich, dass das Ethereum-Netzwerk als zukunftssicher gilt. Trotzdem musste dessen Kryptowährung Ether zuletzt einen Einbruch von rund 10 Prozent hinnehmen. Jetzt befürchten die Anleger einen weiteren Kursrutsch.
Angesichts der bevorstehenden Amtsübernahme von Donald Trump in den USA hatten viele Investoren gehofft, dass es ab sofort nur noch bergauf gehen würde. Doch der Backlash kam, wie erwartet, schließlich gehören Korrekturen zur hohen Volatilität bei Kryptos.
Zusätzlich sorgte ein Ethereum-Wal für Unruhe, er schien die Geduld verloren zu haben und trennte sich von einem Teil seiner Positionen und nahm damit sogar Verluste in Kauf. Das ist erstaunlich, schließlich scheint die Krypto-Zukunft zumindest auf dem Papier rosig zu sein.
Kursgewinne vorweggenommen
Ethereum kann schließlich, genau wie Bitcoin, auf die ersten zugelassenen Spot-ETFs verweisen, die für eine stärkere Durchdringung der Märkte mit Ether sorgen sollten. Der ehemals unerbittliche Gegner Gary Gensler, seines Zeichens Chef der amerikanischen Wertpapierbehörde SEC, ist zurückgetreten und Donald Trump will alles unternehmen, um Krypto in den USA zu stärken.
Trotzdem zeigt Ethereum Schwäche und ist von seinem Allzeithoch weit entfernt. Mit der Zulassung des ersten ETH-Spot-ETFs stieg der Kurs zwar kurzfristig über die 4.000-Dollar-Marke, doch seither ging es bergab.
Lediglich vor einer Woche erlebte Ethereum wieder einen Aufstieg, der jedoch nur von kurzer Dauer war. Doch diese Entwicklung war auch bei der Zulassung der ersten Bitcoin-Spot-ETFs zu beobachten.
Die Märkte hatten die erhofften Kurssteigerungen schon zuvor vorweggenommen und benötigten einige Zeit, um die weiteren Entwicklungen zu analysieren und darauf zu reagieren. Das wird bei Ethereum offenbar nicht anders sein.
Neuer Schub nach Amtseinführung von Trump?
Die Geschichte von Ethereum zeigt jedenfalls, dass sich ETH im Januar eines Jahres zumeist als bullish erweist. Angesichts dieser Historie käme es nicht überraschend, wenn der Coin in den nächsten zwei Wochen wieder zulegen würde.
Zahlreiche Analysten zeigen sich jedenfalls optimistisch, dass mit der Inkraftsetzung der ersten Deregulierungsmaßnahmen der neuen US-Regierung der Kryptomarkt und damit auch Ethereum wieder deutliche Kursgewinne einfahren werden.
Alternative Solaxy
Wer als Investor hingegen eine Alternative zu Ethereum sucht, der könnte einen Blick auf den neuen Meme-Coin Solaxy ($SOLX) werfen. Dieser absolviert derzeit seinen Presale auf Ethereum, bildet jedoch aufgrund seiner technischen Ausgestaltung eine Brücke zur Blockchain von Solana.
Dort nutzt er als Multi-Chain-Coin günstige Kosten und Geschwindigkeit, um das Beste aus beiden Welten für sich zu generieren. 10 Millionen Euro sind innerhalb kürzester Zeit in das neue Projekt geflossen, das beweist, dass die Anleger an die Idee von Solaxy glauben.
Mit einem Preis von nur 0,0016 Dollar für 1 Solaxy ($SOLX) ist der Token noch preiswert, das könnte sich dramatisch ändern, wenn der Coin erst einmal auf einer der Kryptobörsen zum Kauf gelistet wird.
Alle Informationen zu Solaxy ($SOLX) finden sich auf den entsprechenden Seiten von X und Telegram.
Ethereum
Ethereum Whales Absorb $1M Loss As Market Caution Intensifies
They say journalists never truly clock out. But for Christian, that’s not just a metaphor, it’s a lifestyle. By day, he navigates the ever-shifting tides of the cryptocurrency market, wielding words like a seasoned editor and crafting articles that decipher the jargon for the masses. When the PC goes on hibernate mode, however, his pursuits take a more mechanical (and sometimes philosophical) turn.
Christian’s journey with the written word began long before the age of Bitcoin. In the hallowed halls of academia, he honed his craft as a feature writer for his college paper. This early love for storytelling paved the way for a successful stint as an editor at a data engineering firm, where his first-month essay win funded a months-long supply of doggie and kitty treats – a testament to his dedication to his furry companions (more on that later).
Christian then roamed the world of journalism, working at newspapers in Canada and even South Korea. He finally settled down at a local news giant in his hometown in the Philippines for a decade, becoming a total news junkie. But then, something new caught his eye: cryptocurrency. It was like a treasure hunt mixed with storytelling – right up his alley!
So, he landed a killer gig at NewsBTC, where he’s one of the go-to guys for all things crypto. He breaks down this confusing stuff into bite-sized pieces, making it easy for anyone to understand (he salutes his management team for teaching him this skill).
Think Christian’s all work and no play? Not a chance! When he’s not at his computer, you’ll find him indulging his passion for motorbikes. A true gearhead, Christian loves tinkering with his bike and savoring the joy of the open road on his 320-cc Yamaha R3. Once a speed demon who hit 120mph (a feat he vowed never to repeat), he now prefers leisurely rides along the coast, enjoying the wind in his thinning hair.
Speaking of chill, Christian’s got a crew of furry friends waiting for him at home. Two cats and a dog. He swears cats are way smarter than dogs (sorry, Grizzly), but he adores them all anyway. Apparently, watching his pets just chillin’ helps him analyze and write meticulously formatted articles even better.
Here’s the thing about this guy: He works a lot, but he keeps himself fueled by enough coffee to make it through the day – and some seriously delicious (Filipino) food. He says a delectable meal is the secret ingredient to a killer article. And after a long day of crypto crusading, he unwinds with some rum (mixed with milk) while watching slapstick movies.
Looking ahead, Christian sees a bright future with NewsBTC. He says he sees himself privileged to be part of an awesome organization, sharing his expertise and passion with a community he values, and fellow editors – and bosses – he deeply respects.
So, the next time you tread into the world of cryptocurrency, remember the man behind the words – the crypto crusader, the grease monkey, and the feline philosopher, all rolled into one.
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