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Weekly price analysis: prices decline on risk-off sentiments

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  • The crypto market trended lower last week, driven largely by risk-off sentiments on newly released Fed meeting notes and economic data
  • The Fed expressed caution around inflation, especially as President-elect Donald Trump’s policies will kick in after his inauguration on January 20
  • Meanwhile, spot crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) logged outflows from Wednesday, January 8

Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s price logged a negative week falling from a high of $102,733 to a low of $91,188 before eventually closing at $94,547.

Technical analysis shows a break above the last lower high and a push back down into the H4 demand zone, which means that although the price took a bearish turn, it is still in overall bullish territory.

BTC/USD Chart by TradingView

Much of this bearish sentiment is driven by bleak economic expectations. The US Federal Reserve meeting minutes, released on January 8, showed that the reserve bank is cautious about inflation it expects will follow President-elect Donald Trump’s policies.

As such, the likelihood of continued rate cuts has dwindled, with some analysts seeing an end to cuts early this year. The market’s reaction reflects this updated risk-off sentiment.

Bitcoin’s open interest chart shows a decline in open contracts between Wednesday and now. Open interest hit a weekly high on Tuesday at $18.16 billion on the CME, fell to a low on Thursday ($16.55 billion), and mellowed out the rest of the week.

CME BTC Futures Open Interest (USD) Chart by Coinglass

Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs logged outflows after the release of the Fed’s meeting minutes on Wednesday. Outflows totalled $718.20 million while inflows totalled $1.03 billion.

Outlook

Bitcoin’s price currently hovers around the bottom of the demand zone. If it breaks below, its price could be pushed down to $85,100 where a fair value gap could act as support.

BTC/USD Chart by TradingView

BTC trades at $91,622 as of publishing.

Ethereum

Ethereum’s price also logged a negative week, falling from a high of $3,744 to a low of $3,157 before closing at $3,236. ETH price action tested March 2024’s high of $4,089  in early December 2024, but failed to break above and has been logging lower lows since.

ETH/USD Chart by TradingView

Open interest dropped from a January 7 high of $3.50 billion and continued to decline until it was $2.63 billion as of this publication.

CME ETH Futures Open Interest (USD) Chart by Coinglass

Meanwhile, Ethereum spot ETFs logged a weekly net outflow of $186.00 million following risk-off sentiments in the market.

Outlook

As Ethereum’s price continues to trend lower, the next technical level that could provide support is the fair value gap at the $2,893 price level.

ETH/USD Chart by TradingView

ETH trades at $3,071 as of publishing.

Solana

Solana’s price fell from a weekly high of $223 to a weekly low of $181 before eventually closing at $188, logging a total loss of 12.53%. SOL continues to trend lower after failing to close above its all-time high of $260.

SOL/USD Chart by TradingView

Open interest data shows a steep fall from $1.89 billion on Binance on January 7 to $1.58 billion on January 10. As of this publication, OI levels have improved to $1.63 billion.

Binance SOL Futures Open Interest (USD) Chart by Coinglass

Outlook

The next technical support zone is at the $164 price level. However, although the order block is a support, it is a poor low that could be taken out even if price reverses from that zone.

SOL/USD Chart by TradingView

SOL trades at $176 as of publishing.

Ripple

Ripple’s price fared better last week, closing higher at $2.55 from $2.38 at the start of the week as its price continued to log higher highs. Zooming out, the price continues to range between $1.90 and $2.90 as the market cools.

XRP/USD Chart by TradingView

Open interest rose on Bitget, the exchange with the highest XRP derivative trading volume, over the last week, supporting upward price movement as positive news around Ripple’s case with the SEC boosted sentiments.

Bitget XRP Futures Open Interest (USD) Chart by Coinglass

Outlook

Ripple’s price is buoyed by news around the SEC’s lawsuit against its parent company, a case which could be thrown out with the outgoing administration.

However, technical analysis shows that XRP trades at a premium and a pullback is expected. The most likely levels are the fair value gap at $1.75 and the order block at $1.46.

XRP/USD Chart by TradingView

XRP trades at $2.37 as of publishing.



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Ethereum

Bitcoin Pepe set to reap big from its virality, fundamentals, and timing

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Bitcoin and Ether

The crypto market is subject to a neutral market sentiment even as the bulls remain in control. Subsequently, majors like Ripple and Ethereum are range-bound while their steady fundamentals support the prices. 

On the other hand, more savvy investors are shifting their focus to meme crypto projects with the potential to revolutionize the industry. One such entity is Bitcoin Pepe.

In fact, it is presented as the missing puzzle piece in the Bitcoin network. Through its mission of building “Solana on Bitcoin”, it is creating a platform defined by low fees, speedy transactions, and the ability to launch meme coins on the most steady crypto network. Notably, investors have an opportunity to rake in hefty returns within a relatively short period.

Ripple lacks enough momentum for a weekly gain despite steady fundamentals

Ripple price has held steady above the crucial support zone of $2.5000 even as it lacked enough buyers to lock in the second weekly gain in a row. On the one hand, a neutral market sentiment in the broader crypto sector has pushed buyers to the sidelines. Even so, the bulls remain in control as XRP ETFs and heightened global adoption is set to bolster the crypto to January levels.

In the near term, the bulls are striving to break the resistance at $2.7385. Past that level, the next target will be at $2.9100. On the lower side, a pullback past $2.5000 will still have the bulls in control as $2.3357 remains a steady support level. 

Ripple Price
Ripple Price

Bitcoin Pepe: The missing puzzle on Bitcoin’s network

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, began with no intrinsic value about 15 years ago and has since grown to a market cap of $1.9 trillion at $96,278. Bitcoin Pepe has emerged as a project whose mission is to revolutionize the BTC network by transforming it into a meme coin hub. 

This explains why an overwhelming number of savvy investors are rushing to amass BPEP tokens ahead of its listing in Q2’25. Besides, President Trump has made clear his intentions to foster a pro-crypto environment. 

Subsequently, Bitcoin Pepe has become so popular that within the first 24 hours of its presale launch, it raised over $1 million. 11 days later, it has already reached stage 5 of the total 30 stages; raising over $2.8 million. 

With 25 more stages before it hits the public shelves, early adopters have an apt opportunity to buy BPEP tokens at the current price of $0.0255 and watch their investment yield hefty returns. By the end of the presale, the token price is set to have increased by a total of 311.4% to $0.0864. Read more on how to buy Bitcoin Pepe.

Ethereum price analysis: Neutral outlook with a bullish bias  

Ethereum Price
Ethereum Price

Ethereum price recorded its second week of gains after plunging to a 5-month low earlier in February. Even so, it continues to trade below the 25 and 50-day EMAs. In the absence of a key immediate-term bullish catalyst, the crypto may remain under pressure for a while longer. 

At its current level, the range between $2,543 and $2,804 is still worth watching. If successful at breaking the resistance along the range’s upper limit, the bulls will have a chance to retest the crucial support-turn-resistance zone of 2,950. However, a decline past $2,500 will invalidate this thesis.

 



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Ethereum

Grayscale’s Ethereum ETF On The Brink Of Major Change With NYSE’s Staking Proposal

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The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) has submitted a proposed rule change aimed at allowing the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) and the Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (EZET) to stake their ETH holdings. 

This proposal is particularly noteworthy because it seeks to enable the trusts to earn rewards on their staked ETH while ensuring that the assets remain under the custody of their current custodian.

Grayscale Advocates For Staking In Crypto ETFs

Staking, a process integral to Ethereum’s proof-of-stake (PoS) model, allows holders to earn yield on their assets. By staking through trusted providers, ETHE and EZET could potentially bolster their returns, making these investment vehicles more attractive to institutional investors who are increasingly seeking opportunities that offer staking benefits. 

Unlike traditional staking-as-a-service models, which have drawn scrutiny from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Grayscale claims that its approach is designed exclusively for the benefit of fund shareholders. This means that the assets will not be pooled with those of third parties, which could mitigate some regulatory concerns.

Industry advocates, including organizations such as Jito Labs and Multicoin Capital, have been vocal in their support for integrating staking features into exchange-traded funds (ETFs). 

They argue that doing so would not only benefit investors but also more accurately reflect the advantages of native network assets. Furthermore, incorporating staking into ETFs could empower issuers to contribute to the security of the networks on which these assets operate.

Ethereum Surpasses Bitcoin In ETF Inflows

The proposed rule change comes at a crucial time for Grayscale, especially as its ETHE product has faced substantial outflows—nearly $4 billion—making it the largest loser among Ethereum investment products since the approval of spot Ethereum ETFs. 

In contrast, the EZET has struggled to gain market traction, attracting only $650 million in inflows, which is minimal compared to its competitors. 

Other Ethereum spot ETFs, notably those managed by BlackRock and Fidelity, have seen significant inflows, largely due to their lower fees and strong institutional backing.

The Ethereum ETF market’s dynamics are shifting, with Ethereum now gaining momentum in terms of ETF flows, even surpassing Bitcoin in inflows for the first week of February, as reported by CoinShares. 

If the NYSE Arca proposal is approved, it could significantly enhance the appeal of ETHE and EZET, providing a much-needed boost to their performance and potentially curbing outflows.

Grayscale
The 1-hour chart shows ETH’s price drop. Source: ETHUSDT on TradingView.com

At the time of writing, ETH is trading at $2,645, recording a 20% loss in the monthly time frame for the market’s second largest cryptocurrency. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com



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Ethereum

Extremely Strong Support And Monthly 55 EMA Says ETH Is Headed For $4,867

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Este artículo también está disponible en español.

Ethereum has yet to return to its all-time high for over three years, a stark contrast to Bitcoin, which has surged past many price levels in the current cycle. Despite being the second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum has struggled to keep up with the broader market even during price rallies. However, a new technical outlook suggests that Ethereum may soon break free from this underwhelming trend and push toward $4,867 based on a strong meeting of multiple technical indicators.

Extremely Strong Support Shows Ethereum Breakout Is Close

As revealed by a technical analyst on the TradingView platform, technical analysis of the Ethereum price poses a bullish outlook to finally break above its all-time high of $4,878. Ethereum is currently positioned at a key inflection point, where it is trading just above a multi-year support trendline. Notably, this trendline has acted as a solid foundation during previous downturns, allowing ETH to consistently rebound after touching this level. Given this historical precedent, the next expected move is another upward bounce, potentially setting the stage for a renewed bullish push.

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The strength of this support trendline is further reinforced by key Fibonacci levels, which have previously served as inflection points for Ethereum’s major rallies. At present, Ethereum is positioned around the 14.6% Fib retracement level from its break above $4,000 in September 2024, which is a zone that has historically caused reversals and strong bullish momentum.

Ethereum
Strong support hints at rally to a new all-time high | Source: Chart on Tradingview

In addition to the Fibonacci level, Ethereum’s price structure is also currently supported by the monthly 55 Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is typically known for marking long-term bullish trends. This adds weight to a bounce on the multi-year support trendline.

Triangle Formation Confirms The Explosive Move

The analyst also noted that ETH has been trading within a triangle pattern in a multi-month timeframe. Triangle patterns often signal a period of consolidation before a strong move in either direction and in Ethereum’s case, the supporting trendlines and Fibonacci levels suggest a higher probability of an upward breakout. 

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The specific pattern forming on Ethereum’s chart is an ascending triangle, a bullish continuation pattern characterized by a rising lower trendline and a horizontal resistance zone. The upper resistance trendline for this formation sits around the $4,000 mark, a level that has proven difficult to breach three different times this cycle. However, the next try could cause a breakout if Ethereum continues to build on the growing bullish signals with the Fib level and the 50 EMA. Once Ethereum clears the ascending triangle’s upper resistance, the next primary price target would be around $4,867, its current all-time high.

At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $2,760, up by 1.1% in the past 24 hours.

Ethereum
ETH trading at $2,790 on the 1D chart | Source: ETHUSDT on Tradingview.com

Featured image from Ethereum, chart from Tradingview.com



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