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Is Ethereum Set For Major Upswing In Q4?

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Este artículo también está disponible en español.

The cryptocurrency market, led by the largest cryptocurrencies Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), surged on Tuesday to levels not seen in over a month in anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) imminent announcement of its first interest rate cut since the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, despite these expectations or what the outcome of the Fed’s announcement could have on the market, on Bitcoin Halving years, the fourth quarter (Q4) is usually significantly bullish for the two largest digital assets and the broader market.

Exploring The Ethereum Price Performance Post-Bitcoin Halving

Interestingly, Ethereum’s performance following past Bitcoin Halving events has displayed notable variations. Data reveals that in the year following the 2016 Halving, Ethereum experienced a 45% drawdown before embarking on a notable rally that culminated in a 3,400% increase. 

Similarly, after the 2020 Halving, ETH surged by 150% before rocketing to a 2,150% gain. However, since the latest Halving in April, ETH has mirrored Bitcoin’s volatility, encountering notable price fluctuations and establishing lower support levels.

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The recent month has not been kind to Ethereum, marked by two significant crashes. On August 5, ETH retraced over 25%, plummeting to a six-month low of $2,110. The downward trend continued into September, with increased selling pressure leading to a drop from $2,800 to approximately $2,150 in just one week.

Despite these challenges, analyst CryptoBullet remains optimistic about Q4’s potential for a turnaround. Notably, the analyst identified a “triple bottom” formation on the ETH/USDT daily chart see in the image below, reminiscent of price action observed in 2021. 

Ethereum
ETH’s 2021 triple bottom formation and subsequent rally. Source: CryptoBullet on X

This pattern suggests that Ethereum may be poised for a rebound similar to that seen in 2021, when it surged from around $1,650 to its all-time high of $4,730. Yet, currently trading at approximately $2,330, Ethereum sits over 52% below its previous all-time high.

ETH Price Analysis

Predicting further price volatility for ETH on Wednesday ahead of the upcoming Fed rate cut, there are key levels to monitor. In the past week, ETH has established the $2,260 mark as a significant support level. This price point is crucial, as it could act as a buffer against a further decline toward $2,200 or even a retest of the next major support at $2,100.

On the upside, the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) is currently positioned at $2,350, serving as a formidable barrier for Ethereum. This resistance level has been preventing the cryptocurrency from retesting the $2,400 mark in the near term.

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Should ETH manage to break above these resistance levels, bullish investors will set their sights on the next major resistance at $2,520. Just above this level lies another critical hurdle at $2,620, where the 200-day EMA is situated. This level has not been surpassed since July of this year, when Ethereum’s price fell below it, initiating the current downtrend.

Ethereum
The 1D chart shows ETH’s price trending upwards on Tuesday. Source: ETHUSDT on TradingView.com

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com



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Ethereum

Bitcoin targets $63k as crypto market awakens after Fed rate cut

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Bitcoin (BTC) price breaks above $62K as crypto market awakens after Fed rate cut
  • Bitcoin has broken past $62K post-Fed rate cut; next resistance at $63K
  • Ethereum and Solana have also surged, reflecting a broader crypto market rally
  • Caution remains due to economic uncertainties and potential regulatory issues

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has surged past $62,000 following the US Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.

The move by the Fed, aimed at bolstering economic growth and mitigating recession risks, has ignited a rally across digital assets. The monetary policy adjustment not only energized Bitcoin but also lifted a broad range of altcoins and risk assets.

The next Bitcoin price resistance level at $63k

Currently trading around $62,096, Bitcoin’s price has demonstrated a solid 24-hour gain of 2.29% and a more impressive 7-day increase of 6.20%.

Most notably, the price breach above the $62,000 mark represents a crucial psychological milestone for Bitcoin, following a period of consolidation near $60,000.

Technical analysis highlights that Bitcoin’s next significant resistance level is positioned at $63,000, with the potential for further gains if this barrier is surpassed. The upper boundary of Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands indicates heightened volatility, suggesting that while a short-term profit taking phase may occur, the overall trend remains strongly bullish.

Support is firmly established at around $60,100, acting as a critical floor that has been repeatedly tested and held firm.

Investor sentiment towards Bitcoin is largely positive, with increased trading volumes reflecting growing institutional interest.

As Bitcoin’s price continues to climb, it benefits from a broader narrative of cryptocurrencies serving as a hedge against traditional market volatility and inflation fears, which have been exacerbated by the Fed’s dovish stance.

Ethereum and Solana lead as altcoins mirror Bitcoin’s surge

The rate cut by the US Federal Reserve not only impacted Bitcoin’s price but has also spurred a broader rally in the cryptocurrency market, lifting major altcoins alongside Bitcoin.

Ethereum (ETH), for instance, has surged past $2,400, marking a 24-hour increase of 4.94% and a 7-day rise of 2.97%. Ethereum’s price reached $2,430 before settling slightly, mirroring Bitcoin’s bullish trend. Technical indicators show Ethereum facing immediate resistance at $2,430, with potential for further gains if it breaks above this level.

Solana (SOL) has also seen significant price movements, surging by 6.03% to reach $138.65. This gain underscores renewed confidence in Solana’s ecosystem and its applications in decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs).

Other altcoins, such as Ripple (XRP) and Shiba Inu (SHIB), have also experienced notable increases, with XRP rising by 1.20% to $0.59 and SHIB climbing 7.85% to $0.00001427.

Analysts remain cautious

Despite the overall positive sentiment, market participants remain cautious. Mixed reactions and concerns about the sustainability of the rally are prevalent. Analysts suggest that while the rate cut has provided a significant short-term boost, the broader economic uncertainties and potential regulatory challenges could impact future performance.

In particular, Presto Research notes that the market remains divided, highlighting the need for relief from growth concerns to maintain upward momentum.

Amid the mixed market outlook, the coming months will be critical in determining whether the current Bitcoin (BTC) price rally can sustain momentum and push digital assets to new highs.



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Are The Big Players Losing Interest?

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Este artículo también está disponible en español.

Ethereum (ETH) holders appear to be adopting varying strategies amid ongoing market uncertainty, latest data from CryptoQuant shows.

Particularly, according to a recent analysis by a CryptoQuant analyst under the pseudonym ‘Darkfost,’ a noticeable shift in ETH’s investor behaviour is taking place.

So far, larger holders of Ethereum and smaller retail investors are exhibiting signs of inactivity, while mid-sized holders show a measured increase in their holdings.

This divergence in strategies among these market participants may provide insight into Ethereum’s market sentiment, especially as it faces a decline in dominance, Darkfost revealed.

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Detailing The Holders Divergence

Darkfost points out that Ethereum addresses holding more than 100,000 ETH have been largely inactive. This trend is also visible among retail addresses, which typically accumulate smaller amounts of ETH.

Ethereum accumulation by large to mid-sized holders.
Ethereum accumulation by large to mid-sized holders. | Source: CryptoQuant

In contrast, addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH are slowly buying more Ethereum. At the same time, addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 ETH continue to sell off their holdings steadily.

This diverse behavior among different investor segments suggests a complex market outlook for Ethereum. The inactivity of large holders, those with balances exceeding 100,000 ETH, is notable, given their potential impact on the market.

Usually, large holders include institutional investors, exchanges, and major entities that can significantly influence market trends.

Their current reluctance to engage in either buying or selling suggests uncertainty about Ethereum’s near-term prospects. This hesitation might reflect broader market factors, such as the upcoming US Fed rate cuts or the overall performance of the crypto market.

Notably, with the US fed rate cut approaching, large Ethereum holders might be sitting on their hands to see how the market will play out before they put their feet back in the market.

On the other hand, mid-sized investors, specifically those with 10,000 to 100,000 ETH, are gradually accumulating Ethereum. This slow but steady buying indicates a cautious optimism among this group of investors.

These mid-sized holders often represent smaller institutions, crypto funds, or high-net-worth individuals who may be looking to capitalize on potential price gains without significantly impacting the market.

Their gradual accumulation could signal a belief in Ethereum’s long-term potential, even if immediate gains appear uncertain.

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Ethereum Current Market Performance

Following an initial rally rising by nearly 5% yesterday, Ethereum has now seen a noticeable pullback in price, dropping below $2,400 once again. Currently, the asset trades at a price of $2,299, at the time of writing down by 2.1% over the past day alone.

Ethereum (ETH) price chart on TradingView
ETH price is moving downwards on the 2-hour chart. Source: ETH/USDT on TradingView.com

Interestingly, despite the noticeable decline, ETH’s daily trading volume remains intact, at roughly above $14 billion from yesterday until now.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView



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Ethereum’s Ecosystem Remains Top Dog In Crypto, Data Shows

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Data shows the Ethereum ecosystem has continued to remain number one in terms of development activity, ahead of the likes of BNB and Polygon.

Ethereum Ecosystem Saw 0.8% Growth Over Past Year

In a new post on X, the analytics firm Santiment has discussed how the growth in the development activity for the various cryptocurrency ecosystems has compared against each other over the last twelve months.

The “development activity” here refers to a metric that basically tells us about the total amount of work the developers of a given project are putting in on its official GitHub repository.

In the context of the current discussion, the development activity of any one project isn’t of interest, but rather combined that of the projects that fall under a given blockchain, like Ethereum or BNB. A popular way to gauge development activity of a project is through the number of commits that its developers are making on its repository, but the problem with this methodology is that commits are inherited if the developer forks another project (that is, makes a copy of it).

The commits inherited from the previous project don’t represent the work of the new developer, so the total number of commits can be a misleading metric. Santiment’s version works around this by measuring the development activity in units of “events.”

An event is any change that the developer has made on the project. Under this system, the entire act of forking produces just a single event, with the events of the previous fork not transferring over. Thus, the number of events are able to provide a more accurate representation of the actual work being done by developers.

Now, here is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in the combined development activity of the top 15 ecosystems in the sector:

Ethereum Development Activity

Looks like Ethereum is at the top of the list | Source: Santiment on X

As displayed in the above graph, the development activity of the Ethereum ecosystem has consistently been the highest over the past year. Developers of these projects on the blockchain have also shown an overall rise in effort during this period, with the metric standing 0.8% higher today as compared to one year ago.

This growth, however, is only modest when compared to most of the rest of the top 15. Among these, ecosystems like Optimism and Fantom have particularly stood out with their impressive growths of 39% and 31%, respectively.

Nonetheless, the growth of the rest of the blockchains has posed no threat to Ethereum’s dominance, as the network still has a huge gap over BNB and Polygon in second and third places, respectively.

As for what the relevance of development activity is for any cryptocurrency, a high value of the metric suggests the developers are committed to the project, which can be one of the signs to look out for when determining if an asset has long-term potential, or if it’s just a rug-pull.

Since the development activity here is for entire ecosystems, however, the indicator only tells us about which blockchains are receiving the most interest from developers. For checking on the health of individual coins, their respective development activities must be referred to instead.

ETH Price

At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at around $2,300, down 1% over the last week.

Ethereum Price Chart

The price of the coin appears to have gone down over the last few days | Source: ETHUSDT on TradingView

Featured image from Dall-E, Santiment.net, chart from TradingView.com



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