Ethereum surprised the market with a powerful bounce on Wednesday, surging more than 21% from its recent low of $1,380. The move came shortly after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for all countries except China, which now faces a 145% tariff. This development injected optimism into global markets, triggering a broad recovery across risk assets — with ETH among the top beneficiaries.

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Despite the relief rally, Ethereum still trades below critical technical levels, and the broader price structure suggests ongoing consolidation rather than a confirmed reversal. Analysts remain cautious, as the asset’s inability to reclaim the $1,800–$2,000 range keeps the long-term trend in question.

However, on-chain data from CryptoQuant adds an intriguing layer to the current outlook. Ethereum’s price is still trading below its realized price — the average price at which all ETH in circulation last moved. Historically, this scenario has represented a high-probability accumulation zone, often appearing once per cycle.

According to some analysts, this could present a rare buying opportunity for contrarian investors willing to look beyond short-term volatility and macro uncertainty. As Ethereum continues to consolidate, all eyes are on whether bulls can build on this momentum.

Ethereum Faces Critical Test Amid Volatility And Trade Tensions

Ethereum is at a pivotal point after enduring weeks of relentless selling pressure and extreme volatility. The broader market has been shaken by macroeconomic uncertainty and escalating global trade tensions, with US tariffs under Trump’s administration continuing to rattle investor confidence. The crypto market, particularly altcoins like Ethereum, has taken the brunt of this instability. ETH has lost over 60% of its value since late December, raising fears of a prolonged bear market.

However, a shift may be unfolding. Bulls are beginning to reappear, with Ethereum bouncing and setting a strong support above $1,400. This recovery follows aggressive price swings not only in crypto but also in global equities, which have seen significant rebounds following the announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for all countries except China.

Still, Ethereum remains below crucial resistance levels, especially the $2,000 mark — a level that represents more than just a psychological barrier. According to top analyst Quinten Francois, ETH is currently trading under its realized price, which averages the cost basis of all coins in circulation.

Historically, such conditions have presented rare buying opportunities. Francois suggests this might be a once-in-a-cycle — or even once-in-a-lifetime — chance for long-term investors to accumulate ETH at undervalued levels. The coming days will determine whether bulls can reclaim key resistance and shift sentiment toward a sustained recovery.

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Price Action Details: Key Levels To Reclaim

Ethereum is currently trading at $1,650 after failing to break above the $1,700 level, a psychological and technical barrier that continues to cap bullish momentum. Despite a sharp rebound earlier in the week, ETH remains stuck in a consolidation range and is struggling to find direction amid broader market uncertainty.

For bulls to regain control and initiate a stronger recovery, Ethereum must push above the $1,850 mark — a level aligned with the 4-hour 200-day moving average (MA) and exponential moving average (EMA). These indicators have acted as short-term resistance since ETH fell below the $2,000 mark in February and reclaiming them is critical for confirming a shift in trend.

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However, if Ethereum fails to break above $1,750 in the coming days, downside risk increases significantly. A rejection at current levels could trigger another wave of selling, potentially sending the price below the $1,500 support zone. This would put further pressure on bulls and undermine recent gains.

With market sentiment still fragile and macroeconomic uncertainty weighing on investor confidence, Ethereum remains at a crucial juncture where a decisive move above resistance is needed to shift the outlook from bearish to neutral.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView 

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Beneath Ethereum’s recent price stagnation lies a potentially explosive setup taking shape. The emergence of a near-perfect inverse head and shoulders pattern suggests that ETH may be preparing to shake off its sluggishness. This stealthy accumulation pattern, now approaching its make-or-break moment, has historically preceded some of Ethereum’s most dramatic rallies.

Ethereum’s current chart structure reflects this classic pattern, where the price has formed a “left shoulder,” followed by a deeper “head” and a “right shoulder,” with the neckline acting as a critical resistance level.

Understanding Ethereum’s Inverse H&S Formation

A surge for Ethereum is becoming increasingly compelling, driven by the formation of an inverse head and shoulders (H&S) pattern. This reversal pattern suggests that Ethereum could be on the verge of a significant upward move after a period of consolidation. If the pattern completes successfully, the inverse H&S formation typically indicates an imminent bullish trend.

One key factor to watch is the neckline of the inverse H&S, which serves as a critical resistance level represented by a yellow line on the chart. For Ethereum to confirm this bullish reversal, it needs to break above the neckline. A successful breakout above this level would signal growing buying pressure, potentially triggering a surge toward higher price levels.

Moreover, supporting indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) show improving momentum, further strengthening the case for a rally. The RSI, in particular, remains in a neutral zone, giving room for more upward movement without hitting overbought territory. 

With these technical signals in place, ETH might be preparing for a major surge, especially if it can hold above critical support levels and push through the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern.

Ether’s Bullish Reversal: Key Levels To Watch

Beyond the neckline, Ethereum faces additional resistance at several strategic levels. The first notable level is around $2,160. A break above this zone may push Ethereum to challenge the next resistance at $2,858, where selling pressure has historically been more intense. 

If the price can push through these levels, ETH would be primed for a potential run toward $3,360, a critical area marked by previous price highs. Each of these resistance levels represents psychological barriers for traders. 

As ETH approaches these zones, it will be essential to observe the volume and momentum accompanying the price action. A breakout above these resistance points, confirmed by increasing volume and positive technical indicators, hints at a prolonged rally, pushing Ethereum to even higher price targets.

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Despite rolling out a large number of upgrades and innovations, the Ethereum price continues to lag behind Bitcoin (BTC) by a wide margin. Reports reveal that ETH has suffered a staggering 77% price crash against BTC — a decline likely fueled by a mix of technical, macro, and sentiment-driven factors. Notably, On-chain analytics platform, Santiment has now pinpointed and broken down the key reasons behind these price struggles. 

Ethereum Price Nosedives Against Bitcoin

On April 11, Santiment released a detailed report on Ethereum, highlighting its almost four-year underperformance and the reasons behind it. Ethereum, once revered as the cryptocurrency most likely to dethrone Bitcoin, has recently suffered a brutal price decline when measured directly against BTC.

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According to Santiment’s on-chain data, Ethereum has crashed by approximately 77% against Bitcoin since December 2021. While the dollar value of ETH hasn’t completely collapsed, especially compared to other altcoins, the long-term BTC/ETH ratio still paints a gruesome picture for Ethereum holders. 

Notably, Ethereum has also failed to recover anywhere near its November 2021 all-time high of $4,760. In contrast, Bitcoin has surged ahead, reclaiming much of its market dominance and outpacing ETH across almost every timeframe. 

This disparity has led many traders and former maximalists to compare ETH to a “shitcoin.” Even worse, various mid to low-cap altcoins have already outperformed Ethereum over the short, mid, and long-term timeframes, causing further embarrassment for the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Based on Santiment’s report, the ETH/BTC price ratio chart alone is enough to trigger doubt and uncertainty among long-term holders.

Behind The Scenes Of Ethereum Price Struggles

Beyond price action and market volatility, Santiment reveals that there are fundamental reasons for Ethereum’s sluggish performance over the years. Some of the major criticisms that analysts and traders have pinpointed include technical, sentimental, and regulatory issues.

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Ironically, Ethereum’s Layer 2 solutions are one of the key drivers of its underperformance. L2 solutions like Arbitrum, Optimism, and zkSync are reportedly cannibalizing activity on the mainnet, taking investments from ETH while spreading investor attention thin. 

Secondly, Ethereum seems to struggle with complex roadmaps and communication, which has led to investor confusion. Major updates like The Merge and Shanghai have been difficult for investors to comprehend, making ETH feel less accessible than BTC. 

Thirdly, users remain frustrated by Ethereum’s relatively high gas fees and the slow rollout of key upgrades. This has pushed them toward more affordable and faster alternatives, significantly reducing adoption.

Another primary reason for Ethereum’s crash against Bitcoin is ongoing regulatory concerns. Unlike Bitcoin, which has a more established legal precedent, Ethereum faces constant uncertainty about whether it could be labeled a security. 

Other points include ETH’s lack of investment appeal. While Bitcoin maintains the title as a stable digital gold, Ethereum appears to be caught in between, having no clear or attractive investment narrative. Moreover, newer blockchains like Solana and Cardano are also attracting a significant number of users with cheaper and faster solutions, ultimately pulling investments away from ETH.

The final reason Santiment has identified for Ethereum’s long-term price descent is rising selling pressure. Post-upgrade withdrawals of stakes ETHs have created steady sell-side pressure, limiting growth and momentum compared to Bitcoin.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com