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According to a recent post on X by crypto analyst Ali Martinez, Ethereum (ETH) may be heading to $1,250 as it risks breaking down from a parallel channel. However, other analysts suggest a trend reversal could be on the horizon for the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.

Is Ethereum Heading Lower?

Ethereum has been stuck in a persistent downtrend over the past three months, shedding more than 50% of its market value. The digital asset has plunged from $4,061 on December 16 to just above $1,900 at the time of writing, marking a steep 50% decline.

Digital assets analyst Martinez warns there may be further downside for ETH, especially after it dropped below $2,200 on the daily chart, breaking down from a parallel channel. Martinez explained that this breakdown could push ETH’s price as low as $1,250.

Fellow crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades offered a more cautiously optimistic perspective. The analyst highlighted that ETH has been consolidating after the recent crypto market sell-off and has formed a falling wedge pattern on the hourly chart – a pattern often associated with a potential local trend reversal. They added:

But for that to occur I’d want to see the breakout and hold above the white zone. If it can do that, we can start looking for tests into the $2K+ region again.

Daan also pointed to the declining ETH/Bitcoin (BTC) trading pair. While it has shown some strength over the past few days, the analyst noted that this isn’t enough to signal a relief rally. Data from CoinGecko reveals that ETH has fallen nearly 60% against BTC over the last year.

Experts Offer Hope For ETH

Crypto trader Merlijn The Trader drew parallels between ETH’s current price action and its behavior during 2019-2020, suggesting ETH might be on the verge of regaining bullish momentum. However, he emphasized that ETH must first clear key resistance at $2,260.

Similarly, crypto analyst Ted brought out the similarities between Ethereum and BTC’s price action from 2019. In an X post, he said:

What if $4K ETH is like $14K BTC in 2019? What if the Ethereum major rally hasn’t even started? Looking at the BTC 2019-21 fractal, it makes me wonder if ETH’s previous rallies were just the beginning.

However, Ted also cautioned that ETH might first dip to the $1,400-$1,600 range before any significant trend reversal begins. His analysis aligns with a recent report predicting that ETH could stage a swift recovery to $3,000, driven by a potential short squeeze.

On a more positive note, ETH might be approaching a strong recovery phase after entering a crucial oversold zone. At press time, ETH is trading at $1,933, up 5.2% in the past 24 hours.

Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Charts from X and TradingView.com

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A new technical analysis suggests that the crypto market, which includes altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) and Dogecoin (DOGE), is about to experience a major altcoin season that could last 217 days. If critical support levels are maintained, the analyst suggests that we may finally see the long-anticipated altcoin season. 

Ethereum And Dogecoin To See An Altcoin Season Soon

Sporia, a TradingView crypto analyst, has shared a detailed technical analysis of the altcoin market. The analysis highlights key indicators within the Total2 chart, which represents the total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin. The market expert emphasizes the importance of holding a critical support level, noting that the highly anticipated altcoin season could finally begin if this zone is maintained. 

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Notably, top cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Dogecoin could benefit from this market shift into an altcoin season. The analyst also noted that current market conditions coincide with Fibonacci time sequences, which may signal an inflection point for altcoin prices.

Sporia shared a price chart, describing it as his secret weapon in determining bottom signals for altcoins. Since 2022, the chart has indicated a significant bottom each time the market encountered resistance at a crucial point. As of this week, the chart has recorded a bottom, marking the fourth hit around the critical resistance zone. 

The analyst has expressed excitement about this trend, solidifying his confidence in a strong altcoin season. He further underscores that the alignment of events, including key support line formations during the week of the Fibonacci time sequences, indicates the heightened possibility of a major market shift. 

While tracking Fibonacci-based time cycles, Sporia revealed that the first two hits did not trigger any major events, but the third hit at the 2.618 level led to a significant pivot. Currently, this fourth hit at the 3.618 level coincides with the August 2024 altcoin crash, which mirrored the COVID crash in the last cycle. This suggests a 50% accuracy rate for the current Fibonacci sequence, making it an ideal target to watch for a potential bottom and pivot. 

Altcoin Market Bull Rally To Last Only 217 Days 

Diving further into his analysis, Sporia predicts that the altcoin market could rally for 217 days, peaking by October 13, 2025, roughly 20 to 30 days after Bitcoin reaches its projected cycle top. He argues that, historically, Bitcoin has always hit a cycle top before altcoins. 

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In 2021, Bitcoin peaked in April, and the altcoin market topped 28 days later. Similarly, in 2017, Bitcoin reached the top of the market, and altcoins followed 22 days later. For this market cycle, Sporia projects that Bitcoin will hit its highest point by mid-September after a typical 1,050-day cycle from its previous market bottom. 

Notably, the analyst revealed that the last time the altcoin market hit the 3.618 Fib level, its total market capitalization surged to $5 trillion. Overall, Sporia has indicated a 99% surety that the altcoin market will bottom so long as the key diagonal support holds. If it does, he highlights that the market should expect a V-shaped recovery and an uptrend lasting for 217 days.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

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Data shows the sentiment around Ethereum (ETH) has recently soured on social media, something that could actually help the coin reverse its price.

Ethereum Positive/Negative Sentiment Has Declined Recently

According to data from the analytics firm Santiment, traders on social media have become bearish toward Ethereum following the price drawdown. The indicator of relevance here is the “Positive/Negative Sentiment,” which tells us about whether the social media users are bullish or bearish toward a given coin.

The metric works by going through the major social media platforms to filter for posts/threads/messages that contain at least one mention of the asset. It then puts these posts through a machine-learning model to determine whether the comments are positive or negative.

Finally, the indicator takes the ratio between the two types of posts, in order to represent a ‘net’ situation for traders as a whole. This metric’s value being greater than 1 implies positive posts outpace the negatives ones, while it being under the mark suggests a bearish sentiment is held by the majority.

Now, here is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in the Ethereum Positive/Negative Sentiment over the last few months:

Looks like the value of the metric has slipped under the 1 level in recent days | Source: Santiment on X

As displayed in the above graph, the Ethereum Positive/Negative Sentiment witnessed some very large spikes during the last couple of months of 2024. The peak of the metric during that period corresponded to positive comments outweighing negative ones by more than three times.

The overwhelming bullish sentiment was a result of the sharp rally that ETH observed alongside the rest of the cryptocurrency sector. Interestingly, the run ran out of steam not too long after optimism spiked among the social media users.

This pattern of the ETH price moving contrary to the expectations of the majority has actually been witnessed time and again, not just for ETH, but digital assets in general.

From the chart, it’s visible that with the bearish price action that has followed in the last couple of months, the Positive/Negative Sentiment has seen a notable cooldown.

After the latest continuation of the decline, that has taken Ethereum under the $2,000 level, the indicator’s value has dropped below the neutral 1 mark, indicating the traders on the social media platforms now believe in a bearish outcome for the asset.

As mentioned before, though, it’s been a historical pattern that the coin’s price tends to go opposite to the crowd’s opinion. Thus, in this view, the dominance of fear on social media could be something that can help ETH attain a bottom.

It only remains to be seen, however, whether the current sentiment is negative enough for this effect to take hold, or if the mood will have to worsen still for a rebound to occur.

ETH Price

At the time of writing, Ethereum is floating around $1,900, down more than 13% in the last seven days.

The trend in the price of the coin during the last month | Source: ETHUSDT on TradingView

Featured image from Dall-E, Santiment.net, chart from TradingView.com

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.