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Ethereum Maintains Similarities With 2016 Price Movements

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The Ethereum price action has significantly underperformed traders’ expectations over the past few months. Ethereum is currently trapped in a bearish trend, with its price now down by 23% over a 30-day period. This downturn contrasts sharply with the hopes of many ETH investors who have been anticipating a bullish surge following the launch of Spot Ethereum ETFs.

However, technical analysis suggests that Ethereum’s recent performance is not unusual for the cryptocurrency, as it appears to be mirroring a similar pattern observed in 2016.

Ethereum Maintains Similarities With 2016 Price Movements

Despite the price concerns, a deeper look into Ethereum’s historical price movements suggests that the current situation might not be as unfamiliar as it seems. According to an ongoing analysis by popular crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, Ethereum’s price action in 2024 closely mirrors its performance in 2016 when viewed on the monthly candlestick chart. This pattern of repetition became even more apparent after August 2024 concluded with Ethereum closing on a bearish candle, mirroring the same outcome in August 2016.

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Isolated, this would’ve probably not meant anything. However, as Cowen has highlighted, this pattern has been consistent throughout 2024, dating back to January. Interestingly, Ethereum has closed monthly candlesticks the same way as in 2016 for eight months in a row. As such, this could give an idea of how Ethereum could continue to play out for the rest of the year.

Back in 2016, Ethereum eventually went on a massive 19,000% rally, which saw it reach $1,590 for the first time. If this continues to play out like in 2016, investors can look towards a green monthly close for Ethereum in September and then three consecutive bearish months from October to December. If this price action repetition continues after December 2024, Ethereum will eventually go on a notable price rally above its current all-time high. This would push fervent Ethereum bulls into the much-needed profitability they’ve been anticipating. 

Road To $5,000?

At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $2,445, a decline of 10.85% over the past seven days and 23% over the past 30 days. If the current trend continues to mirror the 2016 pattern, Ethereum’s bearish momentum might persist throughout the remainder of the year. However, not all hope is lost for Ethereum bulls, as the cryptocurrency is currently hovering around a critical support level that could trigger a rebound upwards.

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Ethereum’s price is at a crucial support level, specifically at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, just above $2,400. A significant bounce from this level could signal the start of an upward trend, leading to a close above its monthly open by the end of September. An ETH surge above $3,000 into $4,000, and subsequently, $5,000 is still in the books.

Ethereum price chart from Tradingview.com
ETH price above $2,600 | Source: ETHUSDT on Tradingview.com

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com





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Ethereum

Is This The End For Ethereum Or A Generational Opportunity?

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Ethereum holders are definitely being tested by some tough times, with recent price action failing to create a bullish perspective for the digital asset. One of the major disappointments has been the performance of spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which were launched in the U.S. with great fanfare. These ETFs were seen by numerous market participants as the key that could unlock significant upward movement for Ethereum. Since their introduction, they have not delivered the expected results, leaving investors frustrated.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, a popular crypto index fund manager, continues to maintain a positive ETH outlook. According to him, Ethereum is still at the forefront of blockchain applications that are seeing breakthrough success.

This Is Not The End For Ethereum

The lack of positive momentum in the Ethereum market has been enough to shake the confidence of seasoned investors. The combination of uncertain macroeconomic factors, rising competition from Solana and other blockchains, and the unmet expectations surrounding the Ethereum ETFs has contributed to the pessimistic outlook for the digital asset. 

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Among the optimists is Matt Hougan, who shared his views in a recent memo. Hougan has maintained a bullish outlook on Ethereum, standing firm in his belief that the current challenges are only temporary and that the asset still has the potential to rebound. Hougan argues that although Ethereum has fallen behind Bitcoin and Solana’s year-to-date growth of 38% and 31%, respectively, the cryptocurrency’s long-term prospects remain strong.

In his memo, Hougan highlighted ETH’s continued dominance as the leading blockchain for decentralized applications (dApps), stating that it retains the lion’s share of activity among developers building on blockchain technology. He went as far as to liken Ethereum to the “Microsoft of blockchains.” 

To support his claim, Hougan pointed to notable examples of Ethereum’s adoption by major companies. One such example is BlackRock’s tokenized money market fund, which launched in March 2024 and now has more than $500 million in assets under management. Another example is Nike’s Web3 gear platform called .Swoosh. 

Ethereum has the most active developers and users. As such, Hougan believes the blockchain will be first on the radar of the next large traditional company wanting to do a blockchain product.

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What’s Next For ETH?

According to Hougan, Ethereum is a contrarian bet for the rest of the year. What this basically means is that he expects Ethereum to go against the ongoing market sentiment and surprise many investors with a bullish run by the end of the year. 

At the time of writing, ETH is trading at $2,440 and is up by 5.2% in the past 24 hours. This recent uptick brings Ethereum close to testing a key resistance level at $2,450 once again.

Ethereum price chart from Tradingview.com
ETH price holding $3,400 | Source: ETHUSDT on Tradingview.com

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com



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Ethereum

Bitcoin’s price jumps to a three-week high

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Bitcoin price jumps to a three-week high
  • Bitcoin’s price has surged 5.6%, hitting a three-week high of $61.1K on Tuesday morning
  • Altcoins like Celestia, Immutable X, and Near have seen double-digit percentage gains
  • Crypto stocks rose modestly ahead of the Fed’s expected rate cut announcement

Bitcoin’s price has surged to its highest level in three weeks, triggering gains across the cryptocurrency sector and related stocks.

It soared 5.6%, reaching $61.1K before returning to around $61k.

Bitcoin price jumps to a three-week high

The surge marks a sharp reversal from the quiet start to the week, signalling renewed interest in digital assets.

Altcoins and Bitcoin price soaring ahead of Fed cuts

Besides Bitcoin, other major cryptocurrencies have also seen significant gains, with Ethereum (ETH) advancing 4.2% to $2.38K.

Notably, some altcoins have outpaced the larger tokens. For example, Celestia (TIA) has seen a 15.7% increase, Immutable X (IMX) has risen by 14.8%, Near Protocol (NEAR) is up 9%, Uniswap (UNI) has climbed 8.9%, and Sui (SUI) has gained 8.1%.

The rally comes just ahead of the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated decision on interest rates.

Market analysts widely expect the central bank to lower rates for the first time in four years. With inflation largely under control and the labour market showing signs of cooling, many believe the Fed will adopt a more accommodative stance.

Lower interest rates are typically bullish for cryptocurrencies, as reduced borrowing costs make traditional savings and investment vehicles less attractive. As a result, investors often turn to riskier assets like cryptocurrencies in search of higher returns.

Crypto-focused stocks also surge

Crypto-focused stocks have also benefited from Bitcoin’s rally, though their gains were generally more modest compared to digital tokens.

MicroStrategy (MSTR), a company known for holding large reserves of Bitcoin, inched up by 0.6%.

Crypto exchange platform Coinbase Global (COIN) has risen by 3%, while crypto investment firm Galaxy Digital (OTCPK) has gained 5.4%.

In the crypto mining sector, Riot Platforms (RIOT) has advanced 2.4%, MARA Holdings (MARA) has risen by 1.9%, and HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE) has climbed 4.3%. Bit Digital (BTBT) saw the largest jump, gaining 13%, followed by Hut 8 (HUT) with a 6.6% rise, and CleanSpark (CLSK) up 3.1%.

As the broader stock market also experience buying pressure ahead of the Federal Reserve’s pivotal decision, the crypto sector continues to ride the wave of optimism surrounding the potential for lower rates and increased investment in digital assets.



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Bitcoin targets $63k as crypto market awakens after Fed rate cut

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Bitcoin (BTC) price breaks above $62K as crypto market awakens after Fed rate cut
  • Bitcoin has broken past $62K post-Fed rate cut; next resistance at $63K
  • Ethereum and Solana have also surged, reflecting a broader crypto market rally
  • Caution remains due to economic uncertainties and potential regulatory issues

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has surged past $62,000 following the US Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.

The move by the Fed, aimed at bolstering economic growth and mitigating recession risks, has ignited a rally across digital assets. The monetary policy adjustment not only energized Bitcoin but also lifted a broad range of altcoins and risk assets.

The next Bitcoin price resistance level at $63k

Currently trading around $62,096, Bitcoin’s price has demonstrated a solid 24-hour gain of 2.29% and a more impressive 7-day increase of 6.20%.

Most notably, the price breach above the $62,000 mark represents a crucial psychological milestone for Bitcoin, following a period of consolidation near $60,000.

Technical analysis highlights that Bitcoin’s next significant resistance level is positioned at $63,000, with the potential for further gains if this barrier is surpassed. The upper boundary of Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands indicates heightened volatility, suggesting that while a short-term profit taking phase may occur, the overall trend remains strongly bullish.

Support is firmly established at around $60,100, acting as a critical floor that has been repeatedly tested and held firm.

Investor sentiment towards Bitcoin is largely positive, with increased trading volumes reflecting growing institutional interest.

As Bitcoin’s price continues to climb, it benefits from a broader narrative of cryptocurrencies serving as a hedge against traditional market volatility and inflation fears, which have been exacerbated by the Fed’s dovish stance.

Ethereum and Solana lead as altcoins mirror Bitcoin’s surge

The rate cut by the US Federal Reserve not only impacted Bitcoin’s price but has also spurred a broader rally in the cryptocurrency market, lifting major altcoins alongside Bitcoin.

Ethereum (ETH), for instance, has surged past $2,400, marking a 24-hour increase of 4.94% and a 7-day rise of 2.97%. Ethereum’s price reached $2,430 before settling slightly, mirroring Bitcoin’s bullish trend. Technical indicators show Ethereum facing immediate resistance at $2,430, with potential for further gains if it breaks above this level.

Solana (SOL) has also seen significant price movements, surging by 6.03% to reach $138.65. This gain underscores renewed confidence in Solana’s ecosystem and its applications in decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs).

Other altcoins, such as Ripple (XRP) and Shiba Inu (SHIB), have also experienced notable increases, with XRP rising by 1.20% to $0.59 and SHIB climbing 7.85% to $0.00001427.

Analysts remain cautious

Despite the overall positive sentiment, market participants remain cautious. Mixed reactions and concerns about the sustainability of the rally are prevalent. Analysts suggest that while the rate cut has provided a significant short-term boost, the broader economic uncertainties and potential regulatory challenges could impact future performance.

In particular, Presto Research notes that the market remains divided, highlighting the need for relief from growth concerns to maintain upward momentum.

Amid the mixed market outlook, the coming months will be critical in determining whether the current Bitcoin (BTC) price rally can sustain momentum and push digital assets to new highs.



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