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Ethereum Continues To Struggle Beneath $3,500 — What Lies Ahead In Q1 2025?

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It’s been an interesting past 24 hours for the cryptocurrency industry and market, with the United States president-elect Donald Trump launching his own meme coin “Official Trump” (TRUMP). The Solana-based meme coin’s value has skyrocketed by more than 500% in the past 24 hours, with a market cap of over $5 billion.

Ethereum (ETH) price, on the other hand, has struggled to keep up pace with the market, failing to capitalize on its newly found bullish momentum. What can investors expect from the “king of altcoins” in the first few months of 2025?

Overview Of ETH’s Historical Q1 Performance 

In a recent post on the social media platform X, prominent crypto analyst Ali Martinez shared an insight into how the price of Ethereum could perform in the first quarter of 2025. Based on historical price data, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap could witness a resurgence before the end of March 2025.

Historically, the Ethereum price has almost always put up its strongest performance in the first three months of the year. Since 2017, the average return of the altcoin in the first quarter stands at around 82.69%; this is followed by the second quarter’s average return of nearly 67%.

Ethereum

Source: Ali_charts/X

According to price action data, the only two times Ethereum failed to register a positive performance were at the beginning of the 2018 and 2022 bear seasons. The price of ETH was down by almost 50% and 11% by the end of March in 2018 and 2022, respectively.

Meanwhile, the altcoin recorded its best Q1 performance in 2017, skyrocketing by more than 500% in the first three months. This is followed by the 160% surge experienced at the beginning of 2021 — the final year in the four-year crypto cycle.

If history is anything to go by, the Ethereum price might be gearing up for an upswing before the end of March 2025. Besides its history of Q1 rallies, ETH might be in the final year of its cycle, which has often coincided with the strongest performances for altcoin.

Ethereum Price Overview

As of this writing, the price of Ethereum sits just beneath $3,300, reflecting an almost 6% decline in the past 24 hours. This single-day action has pushed the altcoin into a loss on the daily timeframe, with the ETH price down by more than 1%.

If the ETH price is going to continue its pattern of robust Q1 performances, a sustained close above the psychological $3,500 level might be the first step. Since mid-December, the cryptocurrency has mostly been consolidating beneath the $3,500 region.

Ethereum

The price of ETH on the daily timeframe| Source: ETHUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView



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Ethereum

Bitcoin Pepe set to reap big from its virality, fundamentals, and timing

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Bitcoin and Ether

The crypto market is subject to a neutral market sentiment even as the bulls remain in control. Subsequently, majors like Ripple and Ethereum are range-bound while their steady fundamentals support the prices. 

On the other hand, more savvy investors are shifting their focus to meme crypto projects with the potential to revolutionize the industry. One such entity is Bitcoin Pepe.

In fact, it is presented as the missing puzzle piece in the Bitcoin network. Through its mission of building “Solana on Bitcoin”, it is creating a platform defined by low fees, speedy transactions, and the ability to launch meme coins on the most steady crypto network. Notably, investors have an opportunity to rake in hefty returns within a relatively short period.

Ripple lacks enough momentum for a weekly gain despite steady fundamentals

Ripple price has held steady above the crucial support zone of $2.5000 even as it lacked enough buyers to lock in the second weekly gain in a row. On the one hand, a neutral market sentiment in the broader crypto sector has pushed buyers to the sidelines. Even so, the bulls remain in control as XRP ETFs and heightened global adoption is set to bolster the crypto to January levels.

In the near term, the bulls are striving to break the resistance at $2.7385. Past that level, the next target will be at $2.9100. On the lower side, a pullback past $2.5000 will still have the bulls in control as $2.3357 remains a steady support level. 

Ripple Price
Ripple Price

Bitcoin Pepe: The missing puzzle on Bitcoin’s network

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, began with no intrinsic value about 15 years ago and has since grown to a market cap of $1.9 trillion at $96,278. Bitcoin Pepe has emerged as a project whose mission is to revolutionize the BTC network by transforming it into a meme coin hub. 

This explains why an overwhelming number of savvy investors are rushing to amass BPEP tokens ahead of its listing in Q2’25. Besides, President Trump has made clear his intentions to foster a pro-crypto environment. 

Subsequently, Bitcoin Pepe has become so popular that within the first 24 hours of its presale launch, it raised over $1 million. 11 days later, it has already reached stage 5 of the total 30 stages; raising over $2.8 million. 

With 25 more stages before it hits the public shelves, early adopters have an apt opportunity to buy BPEP tokens at the current price of $0.0255 and watch their investment yield hefty returns. By the end of the presale, the token price is set to have increased by a total of 311.4% to $0.0864. Read more on how to buy Bitcoin Pepe.

Ethereum price analysis: Neutral outlook with a bullish bias  

Ethereum Price
Ethereum Price

Ethereum price recorded its second week of gains after plunging to a 5-month low earlier in February. Even so, it continues to trade below the 25 and 50-day EMAs. In the absence of a key immediate-term bullish catalyst, the crypto may remain under pressure for a while longer. 

At its current level, the range between $2,543 and $2,804 is still worth watching. If successful at breaking the resistance along the range’s upper limit, the bulls will have a chance to retest the crucial support-turn-resistance zone of 2,950. However, a decline past $2,500 will invalidate this thesis.

 



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Grayscale’s Ethereum ETF On The Brink Of Major Change With NYSE’s Staking Proposal

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The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) has submitted a proposed rule change aimed at allowing the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) and the Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (EZET) to stake their ETH holdings. 

This proposal is particularly noteworthy because it seeks to enable the trusts to earn rewards on their staked ETH while ensuring that the assets remain under the custody of their current custodian.

Grayscale Advocates For Staking In Crypto ETFs

Staking, a process integral to Ethereum’s proof-of-stake (PoS) model, allows holders to earn yield on their assets. By staking through trusted providers, ETHE and EZET could potentially bolster their returns, making these investment vehicles more attractive to institutional investors who are increasingly seeking opportunities that offer staking benefits. 

Unlike traditional staking-as-a-service models, which have drawn scrutiny from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Grayscale claims that its approach is designed exclusively for the benefit of fund shareholders. This means that the assets will not be pooled with those of third parties, which could mitigate some regulatory concerns.

Industry advocates, including organizations such as Jito Labs and Multicoin Capital, have been vocal in their support for integrating staking features into exchange-traded funds (ETFs). 

They argue that doing so would not only benefit investors but also more accurately reflect the advantages of native network assets. Furthermore, incorporating staking into ETFs could empower issuers to contribute to the security of the networks on which these assets operate.

Ethereum Surpasses Bitcoin In ETF Inflows

The proposed rule change comes at a crucial time for Grayscale, especially as its ETHE product has faced substantial outflows—nearly $4 billion—making it the largest loser among Ethereum investment products since the approval of spot Ethereum ETFs. 

In contrast, the EZET has struggled to gain market traction, attracting only $650 million in inflows, which is minimal compared to its competitors. 

Other Ethereum spot ETFs, notably those managed by BlackRock and Fidelity, have seen significant inflows, largely due to their lower fees and strong institutional backing.

The Ethereum ETF market’s dynamics are shifting, with Ethereum now gaining momentum in terms of ETF flows, even surpassing Bitcoin in inflows for the first week of February, as reported by CoinShares. 

If the NYSE Arca proposal is approved, it could significantly enhance the appeal of ETHE and EZET, providing a much-needed boost to their performance and potentially curbing outflows.

Grayscale
The 1-hour chart shows ETH’s price drop. Source: ETHUSDT on TradingView.com

At the time of writing, ETH is trading at $2,645, recording a 20% loss in the monthly time frame for the market’s second largest cryptocurrency. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com



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Extremely Strong Support And Monthly 55 EMA Says ETH Is Headed For $4,867

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Este artículo también está disponible en español.

Ethereum has yet to return to its all-time high for over three years, a stark contrast to Bitcoin, which has surged past many price levels in the current cycle. Despite being the second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum has struggled to keep up with the broader market even during price rallies. However, a new technical outlook suggests that Ethereum may soon break free from this underwhelming trend and push toward $4,867 based on a strong meeting of multiple technical indicators.

Extremely Strong Support Shows Ethereum Breakout Is Close

As revealed by a technical analyst on the TradingView platform, technical analysis of the Ethereum price poses a bullish outlook to finally break above its all-time high of $4,878. Ethereum is currently positioned at a key inflection point, where it is trading just above a multi-year support trendline. Notably, this trendline has acted as a solid foundation during previous downturns, allowing ETH to consistently rebound after touching this level. Given this historical precedent, the next expected move is another upward bounce, potentially setting the stage for a renewed bullish push.

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The strength of this support trendline is further reinforced by key Fibonacci levels, which have previously served as inflection points for Ethereum’s major rallies. At present, Ethereum is positioned around the 14.6% Fib retracement level from its break above $4,000 in September 2024, which is a zone that has historically caused reversals and strong bullish momentum.

Ethereum
Strong support hints at rally to a new all-time high | Source: Chart on Tradingview

In addition to the Fibonacci level, Ethereum’s price structure is also currently supported by the monthly 55 Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is typically known for marking long-term bullish trends. This adds weight to a bounce on the multi-year support trendline.

Triangle Formation Confirms The Explosive Move

The analyst also noted that ETH has been trading within a triangle pattern in a multi-month timeframe. Triangle patterns often signal a period of consolidation before a strong move in either direction and in Ethereum’s case, the supporting trendlines and Fibonacci levels suggest a higher probability of an upward breakout. 

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The specific pattern forming on Ethereum’s chart is an ascending triangle, a bullish continuation pattern characterized by a rising lower trendline and a horizontal resistance zone. The upper resistance trendline for this formation sits around the $4,000 mark, a level that has proven difficult to breach three different times this cycle. However, the next try could cause a breakout if Ethereum continues to build on the growing bullish signals with the Fib level and the 50 EMA. Once Ethereum clears the ascending triangle’s upper resistance, the next primary price target would be around $4,867, its current all-time high.

At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $2,760, up by 1.1% in the past 24 hours.

Ethereum
ETH trading at $2,790 on the 1D chart | Source: ETHUSDT on Tradingview.com

Featured image from Ethereum, chart from Tradingview.com



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