Ethereum
Ethereum Blobs Are ‘Insanely Bullish” For ETH Price: Research
Tim Robinson, Head of Crypto Research at BlueYard Capital, has unveiled groundbreaking simulations indicating that Ethereum’s implementation of “blobs” could be exceptionally bullish for the long-term price of ETH. In a series of posts on X, Robinson highlighted how blobs could revolutionize Ethereum’s scalability and economic dynamics.
“Many people arguing about blobs, but so far no one has simulated how they respond to demand… until now,” Robinson stated. “TL;DR: Blobs are insanely bullish for ETH long term.”
Why Blobs Are ‘Insanely Bullish’ For Ethereum Price
Blobs, introduced in Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP)-4844, are large data structures designed to enhance the network’s capacity by efficiently storing and processing data off-chain. This mechanism is pivotal for Layer 2 (L2) scaling solutions, enabling them to offer lower transaction fees while maintaining security through Ethereum’s consensus.
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Robinson’s simulation projects Ethereum operating at 10,000 transactions per second (TPS), burning 6.5% of its total ETH supply annually, with L2 transactions costing an average of $0.06. This scenario involves 16 MB of blobs per block, aligning with Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin’s medium-term goals outlined in his latest “The Surge” post.
“Yes, that’s Ethereum operating at 10k TPS, burning 6.5% a year while L2 transactions cost an average of $0.06, with 16 MB of blobs per block,” Robinson elaborated. “You thought L2’s were parasitic and Vitalik didn’t think this through? Ah, sweet summer child, little do you realize how insane this will get when the Ethereum ecosystem really kicks into high gear.”
A key insight from Robinson’s research is the rapid escalation of ETH burning as blob usage increases. “It’s interesting how quickly blobs go from being free to burning a ton of ETH. It seems almost everyone doesn’t understand this tipping point. It also makes me think there might be a better pricing mechanism,” he observed.
Robinson provides a simulation tool illustrating the ETH burn rate‘s exponential growth as TPS scales from the current ~180 TPS to 400 TPS. The data shows burned ETH increasing from roughly 4 ETH per day to 1,832 ETH per day.
It’s interesting how quickly blobs go from being free to burning a ton of ETH. It seems almost everyone doesn’t understand this tipping point. It also makes me think there might be a better pricing mechanism.
Here’s what it looks like increasing from today’s ~180TPS to 400TPS pic.twitter.com/fjuK19NL6y
— Tim Robinson (@timjrobinson) October 29, 2024
The scalability potential is further enhanced by the implementation of Peer Data Availability Sampling (PeerDAS), which allows blob capacity to scale with the number of validators. “Because total blob capacity scales with total validators, after PeerDAS is implemented, blobs can scale as high as needed,” Robinson explained. “There are 10k+ nodes to shard the load between them. While other ecosystems struggle under load, Ethereum will supply the world with cheap, abundant block-space while being extremely deflationary.”
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An intriguing feedback loop identified by Robinson is the inverse relationship between ETH price and the burn rate. “Another interesting feedback loop is the lower the ETH price, the higher the burn! As transaction prices are lower, more transactions are made, and the burn soars,” he noted. “See how different the burn is with ETH at $2k vs ETH at $10k”.
Another interesting feedback loop is the lower the ETH price, the higher the burn! As transaction prices are lower, more transactions are made, and the burn soars. See how different the burn is with ETH at $2k vs ETH at $10k: pic.twitter.com/tbSbC6unwM
— Tim Robinson (@timjrobinson) October 29, 2024
Addressing the question of value accrual for ETH, Robinson stated, “So how will ETH accrue value? Being the most useful, scarce, deflationary asset with 10,000+ teams using Ethereum to grow their products will probably do it. Long term, ETH has the best fundamentals in the world; it just takes time for them to play out.”
The research sparked enthusiasm and discussions within the ETH community. Mat (@materkel) commented on X: “Will be extremely interesting once we hit blob capacity. My guess is a lot of L2s still need to figure out how to handle this case and properly fee their users. There will be a lot of inefficiencies to fix; we just didn’t really have multiple competing L2s in this scenario before. Once the dust settles, we’ll have proper price discovery both for fees on L2s together with blobs on L1.”
Robinson responded, emphasizing the importance of proactive analysis: “Yeah, absolutely! I’m trying to bring the data so we can solve any problems before we get there. The market becomes more stable with more blobs, but in the early days, fees could be quite volatile.”
At press time, ETH traded at $2,638.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Ethereum (ETH) continues to underperform in the broader cryptocurrency market, currently trading just below $1,800 after falling 4% in the past 24 hours. Despite a strong start to the year, where the crypto market experienced bullish momentum, ETH has failed to sustain its upward trajectory.
Since slipping below the $3,000 level, the asset has largely ranged downward and has now breached the $2,000 support zone, signaling weakening demand and sentiment.
While Bitcoin and other major digital assets still managed to see some recovery efforts in recent weeks, Ethereum’s price decline has been accompanied by decreasing network activity and weakening on-chain fundamentals.
This divergence has raised concerns over ETH’s short-term outlook and prompted a fresh analysis of the underlying causes driving the asset’s performance.
Fee Decline and Network Inactivity Fuel Inflationary Pressures
CryptoQuant analyst EgyHash recently published a report highlighting key on-chain metrics that suggest Ethereum’s current market weakness is closely tied to its declining fee economy and user activity.
According to the report titled: “Why Ethereum Is Bleeding Value: Fee Crash Meets Hyperinflation Hellscape.” Ethereum’s network is experiencing its lowest levels of activity since 2020.
Daily active addresses have declined steadily since early 2025, and average transaction fees have dropped to record lows. This reduction in activity has led to a sharp fall in Ethereum’s burn rate, a metric crucial in offsetting inflationary pressures following the network’s transition to proof-of-stake.
The Dencun upgrade, which was expected to enhance network efficiency, has coincided with an extended period of low transaction volumes, further reducing fee income and contributing to higher net ETH issuance.
EgyHash concludes that the confluence of weak network engagement, reduced burn rate, and high token inflation is central to Ethereum’s declining valuation.
Why Ethereum Is Bleeding Value
“Ethereum’s recent underperformance can be largely attributed to diminished network activity, as evidenced by declining active addresses and reduced transaction fees.” – By @EgyHashX pic.twitter.com/fgQJYCrOIn
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) April 3, 2025
Ethereum Technical Outlook Signals Potential Support
Despite on-chain headwinds, some technical analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic view. Trader Courage, a technical analyst on X, noted that Ethereum is currently testing a major support zone and could rebound toward the upper resistance of its current trading range.
Back at the green support line. Looks like we could be heading towards the top of the range.
Key levels are on the chart.#Ethereum pic.twitter.com/rRX8b3b6nW
— Trader Courage
(@CryptoCourage1) April 3, 2025
Another market analyst, CryptoElite, shared a long-term ascending trendline that ETH has respected historically. Based on this trend, the analyst believes ETH could still have the potential to rally to $10,000 later in the year, provided broader market conditions improve.
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
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Ethereum (ETH) continues failing to reclaim the $2,100 resistance, dropping 6% in the past week. As the second largest crypto trades within its “make or break” levels, some market watchers suggest it will continue to move sideways before another major move.
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Ethereum Trades At 2023 Levels
After closing its worst Q1 since 2018, Ethereum continued moving sideways, hovering between the $1,775-$1,925 price range. Amid last Monday’s recovery, Ethereum traded only 6% below its monthly opening, eyeing a potential positive close in the monthly timeframe.
Nonetheless, the cryptocurrency fell over 10% from last week’s high to close the first quarter 45.4% below its January opening and 18.6% from its March opening. Moreover, it registers its worst performance in seven years, recording four consecutive months of bleeding for the first time since 2018.
Daan Crypto Trades noted that ETH is “still trading in no man’s land” despite its recent attempts to break above its current range. In early March, Ethereum dropped below the $2,100 mark, losing its 2024 gains and hitting a 16-month low of $1,750.
The trader suggested that the crucial levels to watch are a breakdown below $1,750 or a breakout above $2,100. “Anything in between is just going to be a painful chop,” he added.
Another market watcher, Merlijn The Trader, highlighted that ETH is at 2021 levels, pointing that it is trading within the breakout zone that led to Ethereum’s all-time high (ATH) but has stronger fundamentals and more institutional demand four years later.
“ETH is sitting on the same monthly support that ignited the 2021 bull run. Hold it, and $10K is in play. Lose it… and things get ugly,” he detailed.
More Chop Before ETH’s Next Move?
Analyst VirtualBacon considers that Ethereum will continue to trade within its current price range for the time being. He explained that ETH’s price has fallen to retest the last bear market resistance levels, as it has erased all its gains since November 2023.
The analyst considers this zone a “good value range” but doesn’t expect the cryptocurrency to break out “right away.” However, he added that a bullish breakout is “simply a matter of time” in longer timeframes.
“Ethereum always catches up when the Fed pivots and the global liquidity index beings to uptrend. That’s when you see the ETH/BTC ratio start to turn up again, leading the rest of the altcoin market,” he concluded.
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Ali Martinez pointed out that the number of large ETH transactions has significantly declined in over a month, dropping 63.8% since February 25.
During this period, large transactions fell from 14,500 to 5,190, signaling a drop in whale activity on the network. He also noted that whales have sold 760,000 ETH in the last two weeks.
As of this writing, Ethereum trades at $1,903, a 6% drop in the weekly timeframe.
Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
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Crypto analyst Klejdi has indicated that Ethereum’s pain is far from over, with the second-largest crypto by market cap set to suffer a further downtrend. Specifically, he warned that ETH could still drop to as low as $1,400 before it finds a bottom.
Ethereum May Still Drop To As Low As $1,400
In a TradingView post, Kledji stated that Ethereum may drop to $1,400, providing a bearish outlook for the altcoin, which has underperformed other top cryptocurrencies. The analyst noted that ETH lost nearly 12% of its value within just three days after breaking out of its recent pattern last Friday.
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He further mentioned that Ethereum’s movement and the rest of the crypto market are closely tied to Bitcoin. As such, this ETH crash is likely to happen, seeing as the flagship crypto has dropped to $81,300 and is already showing signs of further decline.
Klejdi highlighted in his accompanying chart that ETH will likely consolidate near its current level before continuing to move lower. However, the chart showed that the move to this $1,400 target will likely happen this month.
In the meantime, the analyst believes it would be wise to wait for Ethereum’s price to form another bearish pattern before entering a trade. He again reaffirmed that there is a strong possibility that ETH may extend its drop to $1,400.
Ethereum whales are already capitulating ahead of this projected price crash. Onchain analytics platform Lookonchain revealed an ETH OG that has sold off all its holdings. This investor bought 5,0001 ETH while trading at $277 in 2017 and didn’t sell when the altcoin hit its ATH during the last bull run. The whale started selling last month, possibly giving up on Ethereum making a comeback anytime soon.
ETH Will Still Reach New Highs
Crypto analyst Virtual Bacon is still confident that Ethereum will reach new highs. He noted that ETH is back at its key bear market breakout zone, retesting the $1,700 and $2,100 range. He predicts that the altcoin will continue to chop around this range in the short term. However, he remarked that Ethereum tends to catch up fast once the US Federal Reserve pivots and global liquidity turns.
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Crypto analyst Crypto Patel affirmed that Ethereum’s biggest run is coming. He stated that Q2 to Q4 of this year will be life-changing for ETH. The analyst added that this could be the cycle top window and advised market participants not to miss it. Crypto Patel advised that they should accumulate between $1,900 and $1,300 with the target of between $7,000 and $10,000 in mind.
At the time of writing, the Ethereum price is trading at around $1,850, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
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