Ethereum
Bad Decisions By Ethereum Foundation Hurt ETH Price: CIO
Zaheer Ebtikar, the Chief Investment Officer (CIO) and founder of Split Capital—a hedge fund specializing in liquid token investments—has attributed the Ethereum underperformance over the last months to strategic missteps by the Ethereum Foundation and structural shifts in crypto capital flows. In an analysis shared via X (formerly Twitter), Ebtikar writes, “Independent of the myriad of (probable) bad decisions that the ETH foundation & co have made there’s another structural reason why ETH has traded like a dog this cycle.”
Why Is The Ethereum Price Lagging Behind?
Ebtikar began by emphasizing the importance of understanding capital flows within the crypto market. He identified three primary sources of capital flow: retail investors who engage directly through platforms like Coinbase, Binance, and Bybit; private capital from liquid and venture funds; and institutional investors who invest directly through Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and futures. However, he noted that retail investors are “hardest to quantify” and are “not fully present in the market today,” thus excluding them from his analysis.
Focusing on private capital, Ebtikar highlighted that in 2021, this segment was the largest capital base, driven by crypto euphoria that attracted more than $20 billion in net new inflows. “Fast forward to today, private capital is no longer the heavy hitter capital base as ETFs and other traditional vehicles have taken the role of the largest net new buyer of crypto,” he stated. He attributed this decline to a series of poor venture investments and overhang from prior cycles, which have “left a bad taste in the mouths of LPs.”
These venture firms and liquid funds recognized that they couldn’t wait out another cycle and needed to be more proactive. They began taking more “shots on target” for liquid plays, often through private deals involving locked tokens such as Solana (SOL), Celestia (TIA), and Toncoin (TON). “These locked deals also represented something more interesting for a lot of firms—there’s a world outside of Ethereum-based investing that is actually growing and usable and has enough market cap growth relative to ETH that could justify the underwriting of the investment,” Ebtikar explained.
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He noted that investors were aware it would be increasingly difficult to raise funds for venture and liquid investments. Without the return of retail capital, institutional products became the only viable avenue for a bid for ETH. Mindshare began fragmenting as the three-year mark of the 2021 vintage approached, and products like BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) gained legitimacy as the de facto benchmark for crypto. Private capital had to make a choice: “Abandon their core portfolio hold in ETH and move down the risk curve or hold your breath for traditional players to start bailing you out.”
This led to the formation of two camps. The first consisted of pre-ETF ETH sellers between January and May 2024, who opted out of ETH and swapped to assets like SOL. The second group, post-ETF ETH sellers from June to September 2024, realized that ETF flows into ETH were lackluster and that it would take much more for ETH’s price to gain support. “They understood that the ETF flows were lackluster and it would take a lot more for ETH price to begin being supportive,” Ebtikar noted.
Turning his attention to institutional capital, Ebtikar observed that when spot Bitcoin ETFs like IBIT, FBTC, ARKB, and BITW entered the market, they exceeded expectations. “These products broke any realistic target investors and experts could’ve fathomed with their success,” he stated. He emphasized that Bitcoin ETFs have become some of the most successful ETF products in history. “BTC went from being a dog in the average portfolio to now the only funnel for net new capital in crypto and at a record rate too,” he said.
Despite Bitcoin’s surge, the rest of the market didn’t keep up. Ebtikar questioned why this was the case, pointing out that crypto-native investors, retail, and private capital had long since reduced their Bitcoin holdings. Instead, they were “stuck in altcoins and Ethereum as the core of their portfolio.” Consequently, when Bitcoin received its institutional bid, few in the crypto space benefited from the new wealth effect. “Few in crypto were beneficiaries of the newly made wealth effect,” he remarked.
Investors began to reassess their portfolios, struggling to decide their next moves. Historically, crypto capital would cycle from index assets like Bitcoin to Ethereum and then down the risk curve to altcoins. However, traders speculated on potential flows into Ethereum and similar assets but were “broadly wrong.” The market started to diverge, and the dispersion between asset returns intensified. Professional crypto investors and traders moved aggressively down the risk curve, and funds followed suit to generate returns.
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The asset they chose to reduce exposure to was Ethereum—the largest asset in their core portfolios. “Slowly but surely ETH started losing steam to SOL and similar, and a non-trivial percentage of this flow started really moving downstream to memecoins,” Ebtikar observed. “ETH lost its moat in crypto-savvy investors, the only group of investors who were historically interested in buying.”
Even with the introduction of spot ETH ETFs, institutional capital paid little attention to Ethereum. Ebtikar described Ethereum’s predicament as suffering from “middle-child syndrome.” He elaborated, “The asset is not in vogue with institutional investors, the asset lost favor in crypto private capital circles, and retail is nowhere to be seen bidding anything at this size.” He emphasized that Ethereum is too large for native capital to support while other index assets like SOL and large caps like TIA, TAO, and SUI are capturing investor attention.
According to Ebtikar, the only way forward is to expand the universe of potentially interested investors, which can only happen at the institutional level. “ETH’s best odds of making a material comeback (short of changes to the core protocol’s trajectory) is to have institutional investors pick up the asset in the coming months,” he suggested. He acknowledged that while Ethereum faces significant challenges, it is “the only other asset with an ETF and likely will be for some time.” This unique position offers a potential avenue for recovery.
Ebtikar mentioned several factors that could influence Ethereum’s future trajectory. He cited the possibility of a Trump presidency, which could bring changes to regulatory frameworks affecting cryptocurrency. He also pointed to potential shifts in the Ethereum Foundation’s direction and core focus, suggesting that strategic changes could reinvigorate investor interest. Additionally, he highlighted the importance of marketing the ETH ETF by traditional asset managers to attract institutional capital.
“Considering the possibility of a Trump Presidency, change at the Ethereum Foundation’s direction and core focus, and marketing of the ETH ETF by traditional asset managers, there are quite a few outs for the father of smart contracting platforms,” Ebtikar remarked. He expressed cautious optimism, stating that not all hope is lost for Ethereum.
Looking ahead to 2025, Ebtikar believes it will be a critical year for cryptocurrency and especially for Ethereum. “2025 will very much be an interesting year for crypto and especially for Ethereum as so much of the damage from 2024 can be unwound or further deepened,” he concluded. “Time will tell.”
At press time, ETH traded at $2,534.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Ethereum has begun the year much like it ended the last—under a bearish cloud. The altcoin leader has faced a challenging start, with its price plummeting over 16% since January 6. Weak price action continues to dominate as ETH struggles to find strong support, leaving investors cautious about what lies ahead.
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Amid the market uncertainty, top analyst Carl Runefelt has shared a technical analysis on X, offering insight into Ethereum’s potential next move. Runefelt highlights that ETH is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern on the 1-hour timeframe—a setup that typically precedes a significant price move. According to his analysis, this formation signals a period of consolidation that could lead to either a bullish breakout or a bearish breakdown.
A breakout could provide much-needed optimism for Ethereum investors, potentially reversing the bearish trend and pushing the price toward higher levels. On the other hand, a breakdown could extend ETH’s current losses, raising concerns about deeper corrections in the near term. As the market waits for clarity, all eyes are on Ethereum’s next move, which could set the tone for its performance in the coming weeks.
Ethereum Struggle: What’s Next For The Altcoin Leader?
Ethereum investors are facing challenging times, with price action continuing to disappoint. After briefly holding key demand levels, many expected a shift in market sentiment. However, ETH has now fallen to its lowest price since late December, leaving investors anxious about its next move.
Top analyst Carl Runefelt recently shared a technical analysis on X, shedding light on Ethereum’s current situation. Runefelt revealed that ETH is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern on the 1-hour timeframe—a structure that suggests a significant price move is imminent. The pattern highlights critical levels on both sides of the market, providing a roadmap for potential outcomes.
If Ethereum fails to hold above the $3,000 level, a deeper correction is likely, which could push the price significantly lower. Conversely, reclaiming the $3,500 level would signal strength, setting the stage for a massive breakout. Such a move would not only restore investor confidence but also attract new capital into the market.
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The market as a whole is at a crossroads, with Bitcoin holding above key support levels while altcoins, including Ethereum, continue to experience selling pressure. As traders closely monitor ETH’s next move, its performance in the coming days could set the tone for the broader altcoin market.
ETH Tests Crucial Support Levels Amid Downtrend
Ethereum is trading at $3,113 after a 6% decline in the past few hours, signaling continued bearish pressure in the market. The price is now testing the daily 200 exponential moving average (EMA) at this level, a critical technical indicator that could determine the direction of the next move. Holding this EMA as support might spark a bullish recovery, giving ETH the momentum needed to reclaim higher levels in the coming sessions.
However, the market remains on edge, and the key level to watch for support is the untested $3,000 mark. This psychological and technical level hasn’t been revisited since late November, making it a significant zone of interest for both bulls and bears. A drop to this level could attract strong buying interest, potentially setting the stage for a rebound.
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On the flip side, if ETH fails to hold the daily 200 EMA or loses the $3,000 level, a deeper correction could ensue, potentially driving the price into new lows for 2025. With market sentiment leaning bearish and key supports being tested, Ethereum’s price action in the next few days will be pivotal in shaping its short-term trend.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Ethereum zählt nicht umsonst zu den wichtigsten Kryptowährungen der Welt. Die aktuelle Nummer 2 der Kryptowelt punktet vorwiegend mit seinen Anwendungen für ein dezentralisiertes Finanzwesen.
Hier stehen die sogenannten „Smart Contracts“ im Mittelpunkt des Interesses der Wirtschaft. Die „automatisierten“ Verträge benötigen keine zentrale Instanz mehr und schließen Banken zunehmend aus dem Finanzkreislauf aus.
Kurskorrektur vor dem nächsten Aufschwung
Angesichts dieser Innovation ist es nicht verwunderlich, dass das Ethereum-Netzwerk als zukunftssicher gilt. Trotzdem musste dessen Kryptowährung Ether zuletzt einen Einbruch von rund 10 Prozent hinnehmen. Jetzt befürchten die Anleger einen weiteren Kursrutsch.
Angesichts der bevorstehenden Amtsübernahme von Donald Trump in den USA hatten viele Investoren gehofft, dass es ab sofort nur noch bergauf gehen würde. Doch der Backlash kam, wie erwartet, schließlich gehören Korrekturen zur hohen Volatilität bei Kryptos.
Zusätzlich sorgte ein Ethereum-Wal für Unruhe, er schien die Geduld verloren zu haben und trennte sich von einem Teil seiner Positionen und nahm damit sogar Verluste in Kauf. Das ist erstaunlich, schließlich scheint die Krypto-Zukunft zumindest auf dem Papier rosig zu sein.
Kursgewinne vorweggenommen
Ethereum kann schließlich, genau wie Bitcoin, auf die ersten zugelassenen Spot-ETFs verweisen, die für eine stärkere Durchdringung der Märkte mit Ether sorgen sollten. Der ehemals unerbittliche Gegner Gary Gensler, seines Zeichens Chef der amerikanischen Wertpapierbehörde SEC, ist zurückgetreten und Donald Trump will alles unternehmen, um Krypto in den USA zu stärken.
Trotzdem zeigt Ethereum Schwäche und ist von seinem Allzeithoch weit entfernt. Mit der Zulassung des ersten ETH-Spot-ETFs stieg der Kurs zwar kurzfristig über die 4.000-Dollar-Marke, doch seither ging es bergab.
Lediglich vor einer Woche erlebte Ethereum wieder einen Aufstieg, der jedoch nur von kurzer Dauer war. Doch diese Entwicklung war auch bei der Zulassung der ersten Bitcoin-Spot-ETFs zu beobachten.
Die Märkte hatten die erhofften Kurssteigerungen schon zuvor vorweggenommen und benötigten einige Zeit, um die weiteren Entwicklungen zu analysieren und darauf zu reagieren. Das wird bei Ethereum offenbar nicht anders sein.
Neuer Schub nach Amtseinführung von Trump?
Die Geschichte von Ethereum zeigt jedenfalls, dass sich ETH im Januar eines Jahres zumeist als bullish erweist. Angesichts dieser Historie käme es nicht überraschend, wenn der Coin in den nächsten zwei Wochen wieder zulegen würde.
Zahlreiche Analysten zeigen sich jedenfalls optimistisch, dass mit der Inkraftsetzung der ersten Deregulierungsmaßnahmen der neuen US-Regierung der Kryptomarkt und damit auch Ethereum wieder deutliche Kursgewinne einfahren werden.
Alternative Solaxy
Wer als Investor hingegen eine Alternative zu Ethereum sucht, der könnte einen Blick auf den neuen Meme-Coin Solaxy ($SOLX) werfen. Dieser absolviert derzeit seinen Presale auf Ethereum, bildet jedoch aufgrund seiner technischen Ausgestaltung eine Brücke zur Blockchain von Solana.
Dort nutzt er als Multi-Chain-Coin günstige Kosten und Geschwindigkeit, um das Beste aus beiden Welten für sich zu generieren. 10 Millionen Euro sind innerhalb kürzester Zeit in das neue Projekt geflossen, das beweist, dass die Anleger an die Idee von Solaxy glauben.
Mit einem Preis von nur 0,0016 Dollar für 1 Solaxy ($SOLX) ist der Token noch preiswert, das könnte sich dramatisch ändern, wenn der Coin erst einmal auf einer der Kryptobörsen zum Kauf gelistet wird.
Alle Informationen zu Solaxy ($SOLX) finden sich auf den entsprechenden Seiten von X und Telegram.
They say journalists never truly clock out. But for Christian, that’s not just a metaphor, it’s a lifestyle. By day, he navigates the ever-shifting tides of the cryptocurrency market, wielding words like a seasoned editor and crafting articles that decipher the jargon for the masses. When the PC goes on hibernate mode, however, his pursuits take a more mechanical (and sometimes philosophical) turn.
Christian’s journey with the written word began long before the age of Bitcoin. In the hallowed halls of academia, he honed his craft as a feature writer for his college paper. This early love for storytelling paved the way for a successful stint as an editor at a data engineering firm, where his first-month essay win funded a months-long supply of doggie and kitty treats – a testament to his dedication to his furry companions (more on that later).
Christian then roamed the world of journalism, working at newspapers in Canada and even South Korea. He finally settled down at a local news giant in his hometown in the Philippines for a decade, becoming a total news junkie. But then, something new caught his eye: cryptocurrency. It was like a treasure hunt mixed with storytelling – right up his alley!
So, he landed a killer gig at NewsBTC, where he’s one of the go-to guys for all things crypto. He breaks down this confusing stuff into bite-sized pieces, making it easy for anyone to understand (he salutes his management team for teaching him this skill).
Think Christian’s all work and no play? Not a chance! When he’s not at his computer, you’ll find him indulging his passion for motorbikes. A true gearhead, Christian loves tinkering with his bike and savoring the joy of the open road on his 320-cc Yamaha R3. Once a speed demon who hit 120mph (a feat he vowed never to repeat), he now prefers leisurely rides along the coast, enjoying the wind in his thinning hair.
Speaking of chill, Christian’s got a crew of furry friends waiting for him at home. Two cats and a dog. He swears cats are way smarter than dogs (sorry, Grizzly), but he adores them all anyway. Apparently, watching his pets just chillin’ helps him analyze and write meticulously formatted articles even better.
Here’s the thing about this guy: He works a lot, but he keeps himself fueled by enough coffee to make it through the day – and some seriously delicious (Filipino) food. He says a delectable meal is the secret ingredient to a killer article. And after a long day of crypto crusading, he unwinds with some rum (mixed with milk) while watching slapstick movies.
Looking ahead, Christian sees a bright future with NewsBTC. He says he sees himself privileged to be part of an awesome organization, sharing his expertise and passion with a community he values, and fellow editors – and bosses – he deeply respects.
So, the next time you tread into the world of cryptocurrency, remember the man behind the words – the crypto crusader, the grease monkey, and the feline philosopher, all rolled into one.
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