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Will The Top Crypto Defy Historical Downtrends?

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Bitcoin historically tends to have a tough time during the month of September, as quite often it delivers negative returns to traders. Despite the gloomy trend, the current forecast of BTC price is surprisingly rosy, anticipating it to rise 30% by October 1, 2024. But will this bullish forecast last, or is Bitcoin in for yet another raw deal in the weeks ahead?

BTC prices have not been able to stay above $60,000. The coin was most recently rejected at the psychological level on August 27. It then went through a quick 10% correction over the next two days. That drop helped wipe out $140 million in leveraged BTC longs. Speculators now join the chorus of many wondering: why can’t Bitcoin break through $60,000?

Mixed Bag Of Metrics

Despite this, on-chain evidence suggests otherwise. Santiment reported $4.2 billion in August 2024 crypto trading profits. Despite substantial profit-taking, whale transactions—large transfers worth $100,000 or more—have dropped to their lowest levels in almost four years, suggesting that big players are holding onto their crypto in anticipation of rising prices.

The supply of Bitcoin on exchanges has also fallen to its lowest in as many months. Normally, when the supply on exchanges begins to fall, this is a sign of bullishness. Less Bitcoin on the exchanges means less people looking to sell it. Theoretically, this can drive up the price of it.

But here is the catch: Spot Bitcoin ETFs that were supposedly going to herald unprecedented institutional inflows have seen underwhelming outflows. Some analysts make sure to note that ETF outflows are always a lagging indicator, as bearish mood after major news events usually reflects later on. Yet, such outflows only add more ambiguity to that, and traders simply remain in doubt whether this promise of institutional demand ever comes or just fizzles out.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $57,810. Chart: TradingView

ETF Outflows And Traditional Markets

Further, contributing to Bitcoin’s current quagmire is traditional finance. Concerns from conventional finance players caused the crypto asset’s $61,000 rejection. High dependence on tech firms, especially AI-driven ones, worries them. This has increased pessimism, matching market expectations for a 100% interest rate decrease in September.

Recent fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin have moved in lockstep with the S&P 500 index, underlining the increasingly correlated nature of cryptocurrency and traditional markets. That may mean the future of Bitcoin is pegged to general economic fortunes – for better or worse.

BTC price seen going up in October. Source: CoinCodex

Bitcoin: Time To Buy?

At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $57,515, down 1.5% and 10.3% in the 24-hour and weekly timeframe, data from Coingecko shows.

Although on-chain statistics show promise, the prevailing mood is far from optimistic. By October, CoinCodex’s most recent Bitcoin price estimate predicts the price 40%. That is rather significant. Their technical indicators, however, show a bearish attitude, and the Fear & Greed Index comes out as Fearful, at 26.

Featured image from CNBC, chart from TradingView



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Bitcoin

Strategy Adds 22,048 BTC for Nearly $2 Billion

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Michael Saylor announced that Strategy purchased nearly $2 billion worth of Bitcoin. This is a massive leap over last week’s purchase, which was already quite substantial.

Nonetheless, the firm was only able to make this acquisition thanks to major stock offerings. Bitcoin’s price has been sinking over the last few weeks, and this could mature into a potential liquidation crisis.

Strategy Maintains Bitcoin Purchases

Since Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) began acquiring Bitcoin, it’s become one of the world’s largest BTC holders. This plan has totally reoriented the company around its massive acquisitions, inspiring other firms to take up the same plan.

Today, the firm’s Chair, Michael Saylor, announced another purchase, much larger than the last few.

“Strategy has acquired 22,048 BTC for ~$1.92 billion at ~$86,969 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 11.0% YTD 2025. As of 3/30/2025, Strategy holds 528,185 BTC acquired for ~$35.63 billion at ~$67,458 per bitcoin,” Saylor claimed via social media.

Strategy’s latest Bitcoin acquisition, worth just shy of $2 billion, is a major commitment. In February, the firm made a similar $2 billion purchase, and it was followed by a tiny $10 million buy and a $500 million one. The $500 million purchase, which took place on March 24, only happened thanks to a huge new stock offering. This move further cements Strategy’s faith in BTC.

By making these billion-dollar buys, Strategy is able to buttress the entire market’s confidence in Bitcoin. However, investors should be aware of a few potential cracks.

First of all, Bitcoin’s performance is a little subpar at the moment. Despite hitting an all-time high recently, Bitcoin is having its worst quarter since 2019, and there is not much forward momentum.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

This could cause a unique problem for the company. Since Strategy is a cornerstone of market confidence, it is unable to offload its assets without jeopardizing Bitcoin’s price.

The firm’s debts are growing at a fast rate, and this could have dangerous implications if Bitcoin keeps falling. Strategy could be forced to liquidate, even if that seems unlikely now.

Still, it’s important to remember that these are only possible scenarios. Strategy has maintained its consistent Bitcoin investments for nearly five years, and it’s paid off tremendously well. However, if it keeps taking on billions in fresh debt obligations, this faith will turn into a gamble with very high stakes.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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BTC Price Rebound Likely as Long-Term Holders Reenter Market

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Bitcoin (BTC) is on track to end Q1 with its worst performance since 2019. Without an unexpected recovery, BTC could close the quarter with a 25% decline from its all-time high (ATH).

Some analysts have noted that experienced Bitcoin holders are shifting into an accumulation phase, signaling potential price growth in the medium term.

Signs That Veteran Investors Are Accumulating Again

According to AxelAdlerJr, March 2025 marks a transition period where veteran investors move from selling to holding and accumulating. This shift is reflected in the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) metric, which remains low.

VDD is an on-chain indicator that tracks investor behavior by measuring the number of days Bitcoin remains unmoved before being transacted.

A high VDD suggests that older Bitcoin is being moved, which may indicate selling pressure from whales or long-term holders. A low VDD suggests that most transactions involve short-term holders, who have a smaller impact on the market.

BTC: Value Days Destroyed. Source: CryptoQuant.
BTC: Value Days Destroyed. Source: CryptoQuant

Historically, low VDD periods often precede strong price rallies. These phases suggest that investors are accumulating Bitcoin with expectations of future price increases. AxelAdlerJr concludes that this shift signals Bitcoin’s potential for medium-term growth.

“The transition of experienced players into a holding (accumulation) phase signals the potential for further BTC growth in the medium term,” AxelAdlerJr predicted.

Bitcoin’s Sell-Side Risk Ratio Hits Low

At the same time, analyst Ali highlighted another bullish indicator: Bitcoin’s sell-side risk ratio had dropped to 0.086%.

Bitcoin Sell-side Rish Ratio. Source: Glassnode
Bitcoin Sell-side Rish Ratio. Source: Glassnode

According to Ali, over the past two years, every time this ratio fell below 0.1%, Bitcoin experienced a strong price rebound. For example, in January 2024, Bitcoin surged to a then-all-time high of $73,800 after the sell-side risk ratio dipped below 0.1%.

Similarly, in September 2024, Bitcoin hit a new peak after this metric reached a low level.

The combination of veteran investors accumulating Bitcoin and a sharp decline in the sell-side risk ratio are positive signals for the market. However, a recent analysis from BeInCrypto warns of concerning technical patterns, with a death cross beginning to form.

Additionally, investors remain cautious about potential market volatility in early April. The uncertainty stems from President Trump’s upcoming announcement regarding a major retaliatory tariff.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Marathon Digital to Sell $2 Billion in Stock to Buy Bitcoin

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Marathon Digital Holdings, one of the largest Bitcoin mining companies in the US, made headlines with its announcement of a $2 billion stock offering to increase its Bitcoin holdings. 

This strategic move, detailed in recent SEC filings, shows Marathon’s aggressive approach to capitalize on the growing crypto market. 

Marathon’s $2 Billion Stock Offering: Key Details

On March 30, 2025, Marathon Digital Holdings announced a $2 billion at-the-market (ATM) stock offering to fund its strategy of acquiring more Bitcoin. The company filed a Form 8-K with the SEC, outlining its plan to raise capital through the sale of shares, with the proceeds primarily aimed at increasing its Bitcoin holdings. 

According to the SEC filing (Form 424B5), Marathon intends to use the funds for “general corporate purposes,” which include purchasing additional Bitcoin and supporting operational needs.

Marathon holds 46,376 BTC, making it the second-largest publicly traded company in Bitcoin ownership, behind MicroStrategy. The company’s Bitcoin holdings have grown significantly in recent years, from 13,726 BTC in early 2024 to the current figure. 

“We believe we are the second largest holder of bitcoin among publicly traded companies. From time to time, we enter into forward or option contracts and/or lend bitcoin to increase yield on our Bitcoin holdings.” Marathon confirmed

This $2 billion stock offering continues Marathon’s strategy to bolster its balance sheet with Bitcoin, a move that aligns with its long-term vision of leveraging cryptocurrency as a store of value.

Marathon’s strategy mirrors that of MicroStrategy. MicroStrategy’s stock price has soared with Bitcoin’s value, providing a blueprint for companies like Marathon to follow. By increasing its Bitcoin holdings, Marathon aims to position itself as a leader in the crypto mining sector while diversifying its revenue streams beyond traditional mining operations.

Marathon Digital CEO Fred Thiel advises investing small amounts in Bitcoin monthly, citing its consistent long-term growth potential.

The issuance of new shares to raise $2 billion could dilute the ownership of existing shareholders, potentially impacting the company’s stock price (MARA). As of March 31, 2025, MARA stock has experienced volatility, trading at around $12.47 per share, down from a 52-week high of $24, according to data from Yahoo Finance.

Moreover, Marathon’s heavy reliance on Bitcoin exposes it to the cryptocurrency’s price fluctuations. If Bitcoin’s price were to decline significantly, the value of Marathon’s holdings would decrease, potentially straining its financial position.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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